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## Re: [CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs Cartels

Released on 2012-03-02 01:00 GMT

Email-ID | 159826
Date | 2011-10-24 20:38:17
From | tristan.reed@stratfor.com
To | analysts@stratfor.com
List-Name | analysts@stratfor.com

I wouldn't doubt using Anonymous as a cover for state sponsored cyber
warfare. Not sure the number of benefits in actually doing that, since you
can conduct a cyber attack without associating with a hacker group and
still deny / cover actions on behalf of the State. An individual attacking
US computer assets from China, may be working by himself or on behalf of
the Chinese government, but unless the US has other intel on the Chinese
government's cyber warfare activities in order to corroborate there is
little capability to distinguish.
It is very difficult to track down hackers. Computer network operations do
not fall under the discipline of SIGINT. Assets from SIGINT would not
directly help you track an individual responsible for hacking State run
servers. In the past, I have turned to SIGINT organizations for
collections on computer related material, but this was due to the US being
behind in cyber warfare, and not knowing where to assign responsibility.
However, this has changed dramatically in the last couple of years.
Online activities, with adequate OPSEC, truly are anonymous. As an extreme
scenario of OPSEC: If I purchase a laptop in cash, go to a Starbucks with
free public wifi, and never attribute the online activity to something
revealing (accessing personal email accounts, tweeting, entering personal
information to the laptop, etc..), and begin hacking government email
accounts then never use the laptop again. Unless LEA could get an accurate
description of my appearance from Starbuck's patrons or possible security
cameras, I can not think of way to identify me.
Governments, attempting to track cyber enemies, do not refer to these
enemies as individuals. Instead as generic entities tied to specific
computer-related activities because of the difficulty in identifying
individuals.
I think the most likely way for a "Anonymous cover" to be blown, would be
the chatter in all the IRC channels. But what if a common participant in
"Anonymous" activities, was working for a State? Anonymous has denounced
state governments before, if that State agent organizes an attack amongst
his IRC / Twitter buddies, what signs could a LEA look for to distinguish?
On 10/24/11 12:38 PM, Sean Noonan wrote:
In reply to Kerley (my comments on the discussion coming in a bit)
1. Anonymous has not shown the capability to do anything actually
harmful or devastating. I'm not saying they can't, but i'm very
doubtfoul. Tristan's discussion shows the first real case where they
could do some minor damage--to individual people, not not to an
organization or anything that would come as a serious or strategic
threat.
2. Attribution by the world' leading SIGINT agencies is actually pretty
good. I see the fear of using 'anonymous' as a cover, but that would be
pretty easy to bungle, and could probably still be attributed if
important enough to those agencies. The recent attack on Sony actually
brings this issue up- Whoever is calling themselves anonymous denies
they did it. And keep in mind how much they have claimed an publicized
attacks in the past, even before they were carried out. The attack on
the Playstation Network was more sophisticated than anonymous' usual
work (though potentially coordinated with Anonymous' DDOS attacks that
distracted Sony's IT security). But whoever did it, again, no real
damage came of it. Congress is holding hearings over data security, but
this is no different than the OC groups stealing your credit card
information. LE will go after them, have some success, but the threat
is not that large.
On 10/24/11 11:04 AM, Kerley Tolpolar wrote:
Link: themeData
I see the Zetas/Anonymous affairs as a good opportunity to have a
broader piece on Anonymous. I believe our readers no nothing, or
almost nothing about what this group is and the threat it poses.
Reviewing their list of attacks
(http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anonymous_%28group%29), in most of the
cases, they are the "good" guys, sort of a Robin Hood of the internet
. The interesting thing when it comes to their interactions with the
cartels is the dubious role they play: at the same time they can be
fighting crime by revealing cartel members/supporters, but they can
also put lives in risk.
However, I believe this is only one of the threats posed by Anonymous.
The idea that states, and anyone else on Earth, can conduct a cyber
attack under "Anonymous" is worrisome.
(http://www.zdnet.co.uk/blogs/security-bullet-in-10000166/akamai-cyber-spies-are-hiding-behind-anonymous-10024573/)
If I run an organization, if I am responsible for government websites,
or if I am just a internet user, I would like to know more about these
guys. Who they are? What are they interested in? How they operate? Who
they have targeted so far? How can I defend myself from them? In what
countries are they active? Should I worry about them at all? Can I use
them to achieve any particular goal?
On 10/24/11 10:22 AM, Colby Martin wrote:
nice. i still think the central focus, and what everything else can
build off of, is that Anonymous doesn't know the threat they pose to
innocent people caught up in the terror that is Mexico. By focusing
on journalists or taxi drivers they show little understanding of the
situation. This has long term implications in not just Mexico.
They don't consider the consequences of their actions and they act
without understanding the environment. It was the same when they
released information on the Sony Playstation network to protest
Sony. They hurt innocent people to prove a point.
On 10/24/11 9:32 AM, Tristan Reed wrote:
Reposting this with a new shorter focus. Instead of discussing
possible cartel responses, the focus is on what type of threat
Anonymous can pose to cartels. The video released by Anonymous,
threatens revealing personal information on cartels as well as
states a member had been kidnapped. I could not find any sources
outside of Anonymous' claims of the individual being kidnapped.
According to their facebook sites (Anonymous Mexico and Anonymous
Veracruz) it sounds like it may be an individual posting flyers in
Veracruz as part of the Operation Paperstorm protest, although
that is speculation.
Link: themeData
Anonymous, a well-publicized hacker group famous for distributed
denial-of-service (DDOS) attacks on government websites, lashed
out at drug cartels via the Internet with a statements denouncing
Mexico's criminal cartels, including a video depicting a masked
individual addressing Mexican drug cartels on October 10? With the
most recent video release, Anonymous makes bold threats towards
the criminal cartels in Mexico. Threats such as releasing
identities of taxi drivers, police, politicians, and journalists
who collude with criminal cartels. The hacker group demanded Los
Zetas release a fellow kidnapped member otherwise face
consequences. In the Anonymous' video, this coming November 5th
was mentioned as a day cartels could expect Anonymous' reaction if
their demands of releasing a kidnapped member are not met. The
potential of conflict between Mexico's criminal cartels and
hackers, presents a unique threat towards TCOs. We know of cartels
lashing out at online bloggers, but I haven't seen any reporting
on cartels dealing with any headaches from hackers before.
What Anonymous brings to the table in a conflict
o Anonymous would not pose a direct physical security
threat to Mexican cartels.
o Anonymous' power base is the ability to exploit online
media
o Anonymous hackers do not have to be in Mexico to lash
out at cartels
While not certain, there is a potential for Anonymous to pose a
threat
o It is unknown if Anonymous's claims to possess
identifiable information on cartel members
o It is unknown what information Anonymous could acquire
on cartels
o Bank accounts, any online transactions or
communications, identifiable information on cartels members have
to be considered in the realm of possibilities for
Anonymous
o Anonymous has demonstrated it's ability to reveal
illicit online activity (child pornography rings)
Anonymous hackers likely have not been involved in the
ultra-violent world of drug trafficking in Mexico. As a result,
their understanding of cartel activities may be limited. Anonymous
may act with confidence when sitting in front of a computer, but
this may blind them to any possible retribution. They may not even
know the impact of any online assault of cartels.
o Revealing information on taxi drivers and journalists
will cost lives. Anonymous may not understand some of these
individuals are forced to collude with cartels. Taxi
drivers are often victims of extortion or coerced to act as
halcones. Revealing the identity of these individuals will not
have a significant impact on cartel operations.
Politicans have been accused of working with cartels (Guerrero &
Veracruz' governor) before, however there has yet to be any
consequences from this.
o Anonymous hackers may not understand the extent cartels
are willing to go protect their operations.
o Any hackers in Mexico are at risk.
o Cartels have reached out to the computer science
community before, coercing computer science majors into working
for them.
o This provides the cartels with the possibility of
discovering hackers within Mexico.
On 10/17/11 10:19 AM, Marc Lanthemann wrote:
Oh man we are threading new ground here - I like the idea but
there are several issues to address and fix here.
These are the bullets of my main analytical concern with the
discussion:
o we don't know who got kidnapped or why. that's fine
but we can't gloss over that fact
o "hackers" is a blanket term - there's a difference
between stealing bank records from government computers and
overloading www.loszetas.com main page.
o There's no thought out process of what sort of
information could anon have on the cartels. What kind of info is
kept online and accessible to potential attacks? You seem to be
talking about identities, whose? If anything it's dirty cops,
politicians and businessmen who need to worry about what anon is
going to be saying. Think about why the bloggers and media were
killed in previous instances. Was it because they revealed
operational details, because they acted as informants, because
they exposed links with officials or because they somehow
sullied the cartel's reputation? In short, what kind of
information is damaging to the cartels themselves?
o Once you identify this info - think about if anon can
realistically access it and disseminate it so it causes a
measure of damage. Anon doesn't have any intelligence capacity
except for the technical ability by a very small number of its
members to infiltrate certain networks and databases and steal
information. Now what kind of information would a cartel keep on
a network that is connected to the internet (aka no intranet)?
Where else could information be found? Government databases?
Once we know what kind of information is accessible, we can also
know more about the consequences of dissemination.
o What's the IT capacity of a cartel? Sufficient to
trace back attacks? If it's not, there risks to be a lot of
killings done by people who may not understand the difference
between an anon hacker and a blogger.
On 10/17/11 9:47 AM, Colby Martin wrote:
wanted to forward Karen's thoughts to analyst
-------- Original Message --------
Subject: Re: [CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs Cartels
Date: Mon, 17 Oct 2011 09:28:18 -0500
From: Karen Hooper <hooper@stratfor.com>
Reply-To: CT AOR <ct@stratfor.com>
To: CT AOR <ct@stratfor.com>
you've got some of the issues here, but this is going to need
a lot more work
You need to lay out:
a) What exactly is going on with Anonymous, your trigger
section is unclear
b) what our assessment of the online cartel presence is, and
therefore their vulnerabilities and capabilities
c) How capable is Anonymous of breaching high security
anything
d) how far the cartels would be willing to travel to kill
anyone who breaches their systems or exposes their connections
I also just want to point out that we have reasonable reliable
insight that Sinaloa at the very least has some significant
levels of sophistication in their online presence, to include
the use of cyber currencies and significant IT capacity. There
is no reason to assume that Los Zetas don't also conduct
business online, in a protected fashion.
Karen Hooper
Latin America Analyst
o: 512.744.4300 ext. 4103
c: 512.750.7234
STRATFOR
www.stratfor.com
On 10/17/11 8:46 AM, Renato Whitaker wrote:
On 10/17/11 8:25 AM, Tristan Reed wrote:
Link: themeData
Trigger
Recently, Mexican cartels have faced a new enemy, hackers.
Anonymous, a well-publicized hacker group famous for...?,
lashed out at drug cartels via the Internet with a statements
denouncing Mexico's criminal cartels, including a video
released depicting...? a person talking? a voice? words on a
screen? exactly when?. With the most recent video release,
Anonymous makes bold threats towards the criminal cartels.
Threats such as releasing identities of Mexican? American?
taxi drivers, police, politicians, and journalists who collude
with criminal cartels. The hacker group demanded Los Zetas
release a fellow kidnapped member otherwise face consequences.
The potential of conflict between Mexico's criminal cartels
and hackers, presents an unprecedented war front for the
cartels. The vastly different operations of Anonymous and Los
Zetas leave a conflict both Anonymous and the cartels have
little experience in handling. i believe that Anonymous has no
experience with the cartels. I do not believe for a second
that the cartels have no experience with hackers.
In the Anonymous' video, this coming November 5th was
mentioned as a day cartels could expect Anonymous' reaction if
their demands of releasing a kidnapped member this should be
mentioned right up front. Cartels have a member, Anonymous is
threatening to hit back. Provide enough details so we
understand who this guy is and why/how he was abducted. are
not met. If Anonymous' claims of possessing revealing
information on cartel members and operations are true, cartels
will likely respond with violence against individuals revealed
as opposing cartel members huh? you mean Anonymous members?.
It also is likely that public disclosure of GOM officials who
collude with DTOs will force the GOM to take action, giving
the Anonymous threat complexity i don't understand what this
means. You mean the GOM will threaten Anonymous?. How
effectively any cartel will be able to retaliate against
Anonymous remains unanswered . However, cartels will continue
their threats against any individual using online media WC....
you mean tools? or weapons? We're not talking about bloggers
here. against the cartels.
The Battle Space
Anonymous's and the cartels activities exist in two separate
realities from each other. Anonymous operates solely in sphere
of the computer networks. Anonymous does not experience
geographical boundaries. All personalities within Anonymous,
exist solely in cyber space. (That is not entirely true. They
are physical people tho live in the real world. They have
names and addresses - although most of them are likely outside
of MX.) Anonymous' power base consists of their technical
capabilities in hacking. Any information connected to the
Internet is vulnerable to exploits by hackers. (Identifying
the pc's of individual cartel members in the midst of Mexico's
population could be quite difficult. Remember that most of
what Anonymous has done are DDOS attacks. Sucks if you are
Mastercard or a big company with a website that brings in
revenue, but it does not really matter if you don't run
operations on the web. Los Z don't make much money via
e-commerce. They are also far less dependent on the web than
the jihadists.)
Anonymous is known for its hacking endevours, but it's power
base consists of the perceived anonymity that its members
believe themselves to have, real or otherwise, by operating
through the internet. This gives an opening for people
disgruntled by anything and everything to practice general
dickery. As the popular meme goes, anonymity + audience =
troll. Only a fraction of the large web of people who identify
themselves as "anonymous" have any sort of serious IT
capability.
The largest threat towards a hacker's existence so far has
been from targeted arrests by Law Enforcement Agencies.
The criminal cartels in Mexico operate on the streets in US
and Mexican cities. They are run as a business, always looking
to maximize profits and expand. But they are bricks and mortar
commerce. Yes..... but they use the internet to launder money
and issue commands. We know that Sinaloa does that from
insight. There is no reason to assume that Los Zetas don't
have a similar capacity. Their power base is built by large
amounts of revenue and escalating brutal violence. Cartels
like Los Zetas, are experienced in facing different types of
threats. Cartels are always suffering at the hands of cartel
on cartel violence. While battling each other, cartels still
face arrests by Law Enforcement Agencies. As cartels wish to
avoid any hindrance in the flow of drugs and money, cartels
have targeted media outlets. Murdering journalists and online
bloggers in order to cover details of their operations. ok...
but that's kind of a red herrng for this discussion. You need
to focus on the possible vulnerabilities of the cartels. Don't
just assume they have no cyber presence.
Anonymous' Weapons
Whatever impact will be felt due to Anonymous' actions against
criminal cartels has yet to be seen. Anonymous' only ability
to combat cartels lay in information operations, mainly
disseminating sensitive information on cartels and propagating
anti-cartel statements via social media and defaced websites
in Mexico you mean so far and that we know of?. As Anonymous
admitted in their video to cartels, they cannot fight with
guns. The significance of a targeted information operations
campaign by technically elite individuals can not be
overlooked should not be underestimated. Cartels view main
stream media outlets and social media blogs as such a threat
to their operations, that they have continued to target
journalists and bloggers. Last month, a message signed by Los
Zetas was placed with a dead female body more relevantly, on
the body of a blogger. The message threatened any users who
denounce cartels on blogging websites. getting repetitive
here, and it's not really addressing the subheading
As stated earlier, any information connected to the internet
risks disclosure by Anonymous. There is ample reason to
suggest Anonymous is capable of possessing information they
threaten to release. By releasing identities of individuals
cooperating with Mexican cartels, Anonymous threatens the life
of those individuals. Anonymous's ability to disseminate
sensitive information is limited by what is available via the
Internet. Government computers connected to the Internet
should always be considered a possibility of an attack.
However, as with the compartmentalized nature of the US
governments computer networks, information available to
Mexico's intelligence collection may not be easy to acquire.
what are you trying to say here? This isn't clear at all
Cartel's Defense
A counter response to the video? by the cartels
has yet to see fruition. However, Anonymous' claims of a
kidnapped member by Los Zetas suggest Los Zetas have begun
addressing the threat posed by hackers so... how has there not
been a counter response? also this undermines your statements
above about how Anonymous is soley internet based, and
underlines the vulnerabilities of associated members. How did
they find teh Anonymous member? The answer to that could very
well give you some indication to the technical ability of the
cartels . As Anonymous exists in abstract reality of the world
wide web , the cartels will face a number of challenges which
rarely are posed for them Again, how do you know? The USG has
whole agencies dedicated to fucking shit up in cyberspace. You
can assume (and we have good intel indicating that) they are
working on disrupting the cartels.. Hackers threatening
cartels, can operate in any region of the world. Personal
information including locations is only available if a hacker
chooses to divulge it or if the subject of the attack is savvy
enough to figure it out. Hackers don't only work for
Anonymous. Cartels are only capable of dealing with their
online enemy, if they can physically reach out to them. Or
start employing hackers of their own under their payroll?
Stranger things have happened, Why not a Zetas 2.0?
Cartels have been known to coerce the services of
Mexican citizens with a technical background. Recruiting the
help of computer science majors through personal threats has
been reported in the past where? What cartels? reported
where?. Since cartels operate in the world of urban violence
and drug trafficking, they will likely need the assistance of
technical experts to help combat any threat by computer
hackers. While identifying bloggers inside of Mexico has been
demonstrated, it is unlikely cartels are capable of
identifying any hackers operating outside of Mexico. Even law
enforcement agencies such as the FBi, with far more technical
experience and resources than cartels, struggle to find
hackers through investigations. A) How do you know they are
not in Mexico? (Who was the guy they kidnapped???) B) I'm
goign to assume that not all hackers are equally difficult to
track down
In order to compete with an online foe, cartels
will likely continue counter tactics they are most familiar
with, brute force. Cartels are still capable of their HUMINT
operations within Mexico "still"? why would we assume they
wouldn't be?. Individuals with alleged connections to hacker
communities will likely be targeted and interrogated by cartel
members. Narco banners and public display of violence will
likely continue to be used to scare online media into
submission i'm not really seeing the online
media-international hacking group connection here. The cruel
manners in which cartels inflict harm, is something computer
hackers have unlikely encountered before in their life.
Whether the fear of cartel violence softens the confidence of
Anonymous will remain to be seen until cartels are able to
seek out and capture members of the hacker group.. Or the
Narcos could call the collective bluff and simply go on and
shrug off any inconvenience that Anon can inflict.
--
Marc Lanthemann
Watch Officer
STRATFOR
+1 609-865-5782
www.stratfor.com
--
Colby Martin
Tactical Analyst
colby.martin@stratfor.com
--
Sean Noonan
Tactical Analyst
Office: +1 512-279-9479
Mobile: +1 512-758-5967
Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
www.stratfor.com