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### Viewing cable 01ABUJA2863, FLOOD DISASTER IN NORTHERN NIGERIA

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
01ABUJA2863 | 2001-11-14 07:53 | 2011-08-25 00:00 | UNCLASSIFIED | Embassy Abuja

`

    This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

` `

    UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 07 ABUJA 002863

    SIPDIS

    AID ADM

    USAID/W FOR AFR/WA, MIKE KARBELING
    ABUJA FOR ADMIN

    E.O. 12958: N/A
    TAGS: AMGT APER ECON PREL
    SUBJECT: FLOOD DISASTER IN NORTHERN NIGERIA

    REF: RE: DISASTER DECLARATION

    ¶1. SUMMARY:  OFDA SENT EDRC JAY NASH TO NORTHERN
    NIGERIA FOR FOUR DAYS TO ASSESS THE FLOODING THERE AND
    TO MAKE A PRELIMINARY DETERMINATION AS TO WHETHER
    ADDITIONAL OFDA SUPPORT (ABOVE AND BEYOND THE $25,000
    TRANSFERRED AS A RESULT OF THE AMBASSADPR  DISASTER
    DECLARATION) WOULD BE NEEDED.  CROP DAMAGE WAS SEVERE,
    THOUGH THE NUMBERS OF DISPLACED PERSONS WERE NOT
    PARTICULARLY HIGH AND THEIR NEEDS WERE LARGELY BEING
    ADDRESSED BY THE LOCAL AND STATE GOVERNMENTS.  FOR  THE
    TIME BEING, THE INITIAL $25,000 IN DISASTER RELIEF
    ASSISTANCE IS SUFFICIENT, AND MONITORING ITS USE BY THE
    INTERNATIONAL FEDERATION OF RED CROSS SOCIETIES WILL
    GIVE USAID AMPLE OPPORTUNITY TO DETERMINE WHETHER MORE
    EMERGENCY ASSISTANCE (SUCH AS FOOD AND NON-FOOD
    COMMODITIES) IS NEEDED TO COMPLEMENT NIGERIAN
    GOVERNMENT EFFORTS.  SHOULD AN INTERNATIONAL NGO BE
    INTERESTED IN ADDITIONAL WORK IN THE AREAS OF SAFE
    WATER AND/OR RECONSTRUCTION, AND USAID NIGERIA CONCURS
    THAT THIS IS A NEED THAT WILL NOT BE MET BY OTHER
    DONORS, OFDA SHOULD BE OPEN TO REVIEWING AND POSSIBLY
    FUNDING PROPOSALS OF THIS TYPE IN THE NEXT MONTH OR
    TWO.  END SUMMARY.

    ¶2. OFDA DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF CONGO EDRC JAY NASH
    VISITED NORTHERN NIGERIA ON TDY FROM MONDAY SEPTEMBER
    17 TO THURSDAY SEPTEMBER 20TH.  THE PURPOSE OF THE TRIP
    WAS TO EVALUATE THE NEED FOR FURTHER OFDA ASSISTANCE TO
    VICTIMS OF THE FLOODS IN KANO AND JIGAWA STATES.  (THE
    INITIAL GRANT OF $25,000 REQUESTED IN THE AMBASSADOR
    DISASTER DECLARATION
    HAS ALREADY BEEN APPROVED AND
    PROCESSED.)  THE ASSESSMENT INCLUDED THREE DAYS OF
    FIELD VISITS TO FLOOD AFFECTED AREAS, INCLUDING A
    HELICOPTER FLYOVER ON THE THIRD DAY, AS WELL AS
    NUMEROUS MEETINGS WITH LOCAL GOVERNMENT OFFICIALS AND
    OTHERS INVOLVED IN THE ASSISTANCE EFFORT.  NASH WAS
    ACCOMPANIED BY GARBA ABDU OF THE USAID/NIGERIA HEALTH
    UNIT, WHO IS A NATIVE OF NORTHERN NIGERA AND FLUENT
    SPEAKER OF HAUSE  HE DOMINANT LANGUAGE IN THE
    AFFECTED AREA.

    ---------------------------------------------
    GENERAL SITUATION DESCRIPTION
    ---------------------------------------------

    ¶3. UNUSUALLY HEAVY RAINS IN THE SECOND HALF OF AUGUST
    IN NORTHERN NIGERIA SWELLED THE KANO AND CHALLAWA
    RIVERS, ESPECIALLY AT THE POINT WHERE THE TWO RIVERS
    CONVERGE TO FORM THE KEDEIJA RIVER.  WATER ALSO ROSE
    BEHIND THE TIGA AND CHALLAWA DAMS.  VILLAGES NEAR THE
    RIVERS RESPONDED BY BUILDING DIKES AROUND THE INHABITED
    AREAS, AND IN SOME CASES, AROUND FIELDS.  ON AUGUST
    27TH, HOWEVER, WATER BEGAN SPILLING OVER THE DAMS,
    FLASH-FOODING RESULTED AND THE DIKES OF MANY VILLAGES
    WERE OVERRUN BY THE WATER IN AS LITTLE AS THIRTY
    MINUTES TIME, FORCING THE INHABITANTS OF SOME VILLAGES
    AND CITY WARDS TO FLEE FOR THEIR LIVES.  SOME VILLAGES
    WERE CUT OFF FROM ACCESS TO HIGHER GROUND BEFORE
    VILLAGERS COULD ESCAPE.  THESE PEOPLE WERE EVACUATED IN
    BOATS, OR IN SOME CASES, BY FLOATING ON LARGE
    CALABASHES.  TWENTY  PEOPLE REPORTEDLY DROWNED IN KANO
    STATE, AND 180 IN JIGAWA STATE.

    THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL WAS TRULY EXCEPTIONAL. ONE WEEK
    OF AUGUST REPORTED AS MUCH RAINFALL AS THE ENTIRE RAINY
    SEASON LAST YEAR. THIS WAS THE FIRST LIFE-ENDANGERING
    FLOODING TO OCCUR IN THE AREA IN LIVING MEMORY, AND THE
    VICTIMS WERE SERIOUSLY TRAUMATIZED.  (MANY ARE
    CONSEQUENTLY EXPRESSING GREAT RELUCTANCE TO RETURN TO
    THE SAME LOCATIONS.)

    ¶4. FORTUNATELY, MOST OF THE DAMAGE WAS TO FARMLANDS
    RATHER THAN INHABITED AREAS.  THE REGION IS NOT DENSELY
    POPULATED, AND MOST VILLAGES OF THE AREA ARE LOCATED
    FAR ENOUGH FROM THE RIVER, AND ON SUFFICIENTLY HIGH
    GROUND, TO AVOID HAVING BEEN FLOODED.  SOME VILLAGES
    AND CITY WARDS, HOWEVER, WERE TOTALLY SUBMERGED, AND
    OTHERS PARTIALLY SUBMERGED, RESULTING IN THE COMPLETE
    LOSS OF THOUSANDS OF HOUSES (WHICH, MADE PRIMARILY OF
    MUD, COLLAPSED QUICKLY WHEN EXPOSED TO THE CURRENT).
    THE NUMBER OF VILLAGES AND WARDS WITH HOUSES DAMAGED OR
    DESTROYED BY THE FLOODING IS PROBABLY SOMEWHERE BETWEEN
    30 AND 50.  THE NIGERIAN RED CROSS IS REPORTING SOME
    33,500 PERSONS DISPLACED IN JIGAWA STATE AND 50,000 IN
    KANO STATE, WITH APPROXIMATELY HALF OF THE DISPLACED
    CAMPING OUT IN SCHOOLS AND OTHER PUBLIC BUILDINGS
    ASSIGNED THEM BY THE LOCAL GOVERNMENT AND THE OTHER
    HALF STAYING WITH RELATIVES OR FRIENDS.

    ¶5. THOUGH NOT HEAVILY POPULATED, THE REGION IS,
    HOWEVER, HIGHLY FARMED, WITH ALMOST ALL LAND PLANTED
    WITH ONE CROP OR ANOTHER.  CROP DAMAGE IS THUS
    EXTENSIVE.  MANY FARMERS OF THE AREA HAVE LOST ALL RICE
    AND BEAN FIELDS, WHILE SOME HAVE ALSO LOST MUCH OR ALL
    OF THE MILLET AND GUINEA CORN STAPLE CROPS.  (THE
    DAMAGE TO THE STAPLE MILLET AND GUINEA CORN FIELDS
    WOULD APPEAR TO BE LESS THAN ORIGINALLY FEARED, SINCE
    MANY FIELDS THAT WERE UNDERWATER DRIED WITHIN A WEEK
    AND SINCE THESE TALL PLANTS SEEM NOT TO HAVE SUSTAINED
    MUCH DAMAGE AS A RESULT OF BEING PARTIALLY UNDERWATER
    FOR THAT PERIOD.  THE MILLET AND GUINEA CORN LOSS,
    HOWEVER, MUST STILL BE CONSIDERED SIGNIFICANT,
    ESPECIALLY FOR FARMERS WITH FIELDS IN LOWER-LYING AREAS
    OR CLOSE TO THE RIVER BED.)  THE NUMBER OF VILLAGES
    WHOSE CROPS WERE AFFECTED BY THE FLOODING IS REPORTEDLY
    125, AND PROBABLY SOME 500,000 PERSONS (100,000
    FAMILIES) COULD BE SAID TO BE DIRECTLY AFFECTED BY
    DAMAGE TO THEIR SUBSISTENCE CROPS.

    ¶6. THOUGH NIGERIA IS GENERALLY SUBJECT TO ETHNIC AND
    RELIGIOUS TENSION, THERE IS NO EVIDENCE TO DATE THAT
    THE FLOOD HAS AGGRAVATED THIS SITUATION.  THERE DOES
    NOT, FOR EXAMPLE, APPEAR TO BE INCREASED
    ETHNIC/RELIGIOUS TENSION AS A RESULT OF THE LIMITED
    POPULATION MOVEMENT TOWARD THE URBAN AREAS.  THE
    AFFECTED VILLAGES ARE LARGELY OF THE SAME ETHNICITY
    (HAUSA-FULANI) AND RELIGION AS THE MAJORITY POPULATIONS
    IN THE NEARBY URBAN AREAS SUCH AS KANO AND WUDIL, AND
    THE PEOPLE WHO HAVE MOVED ARE NOT SUFFICIENTLY NUMEROUS
    ANY WAY TO SIGNIFICANTLY ALTER ANY ETHNIC/RELIGIOUS
    BALANCE.

    -----------------------------------------
    THE RESPONSE TO DATE
    -----------------------------------------

    ¶7. NEARLY ALL THE INITIAL ASSISTANCE TO THE FLOOD
    VICTIMS-PRIMARILY THE DISPLACED-TO DATE HAS COME FROM
    THE STATE AND LOCAL GOVERNMENTS OF THE AFFECTED AREAS.
    IN KANO STATE, THE STATE RELIEF AND REHABILITATION
    AGENCY HAS ASSISTED THE LOCAL GOVERNMENTS TO PROVIDE
    REGULAR FOOD AID, AS WELL AS NON-FOOD ITEMS, AT REGULAR
    TWO-WEEK INTERVALS TO THE WORST AFFECTED.  FOR EXAMPLE,
    KURA LGA HAS TWICE DELIVERED TO ITS AFFECTED VILLAGES
    500 BLANKETS, 500 50 KG SACKS OF RICE, 200 100KG BAGS
    OF CORN FLOUR, 500 25KG BAGS OF SALT, 600 GALLONS OF
    VEGETABLE OIL, 500 WOMEN  CLOTH WRAPS AND 500 MEN
    BUBUS.  A THIRD
    DISTRIBUTION IS UNDER PREPARATION.  OF
    THESE AMOUNTS, APPROXIMATELY 3/5THS WENT TO THE 1678
    HARD-HIT FAMILIES OF GAMADAN.  KURA ALSO SAYS THEY
    SPEND ABOUT $450 DAILY ON BREAD PURCHASES FOR THE
    AFFECTED FAMILIES.

    JIGAWA STATE HAS ALSO RESPONDED, THOUGH THEIR RESPONSE
    SEEMS A LITTLE LESS CONSISTENT AND REGULAR THAN THAT OF
    KANO STATE.  AT A SCHOOL HOUSING THE DISPLACED FROM A
    PARTIALLY SUBMERGED VILLAGE PEOPLE SAID THEY HAD
    RECEIVED ONE ROUND OF FOOD DISTRIBUTION ONLY, AND WERE
    SERIOUSLY SHORT OF FOOD.  AT THE SAME TIME, HOWEVER,
    THE STATE IN ANOTHER LOCATION NOT FAR AWAY HAD ALREADY
    BEGUN THE CONSTRUCTION OF THE FIRST OF A PROMISED 500
    NEW HOUSES.  COMMENT:  THE WALLS OF THIS HOUSE, MADE
    FROM COMPRESSED CEMENT-MUD BRICKS, ARE NEARLY COMPLETE.
    INTENDED, ACCORDING TO THE PEOPLE BUILDING IT, FOR JUST
    ONE FAMILY, THE HOUSE IS QUITE LARGE, WITH SEVERAL
    BEDROOMS, AND BOTH OFDA AND USAID/NIGERIA
    REPRESENTATIVES HAD THE STRONG REACTION THAT (A)
    PROVIDING ROOFING FOR IT WILL BE QUITE EXPENSIVE, AND
    (B) BUILDING 500 SUCH HOUSES IS AN EXTREMELY AMBITOUS
    PROJECT WHICH MIGHT EASILY SURPASS THE GOVERNMENT
    RESOURCES BEFORE MANY
    ARE BUILT AND FOR WHICH THE
    GOVERNMENT WILL FIND IT DIFFICULT TO FIND ANY
    INTERNATIONAL CONTRIBUTOR/PARTNER.  END
    COMMENT

    THOUGH FOOD AND NON-FOOD DISTRIBUTIONS IN BOTH KANO AND
    JIGAWA STATES ARE NO DOUBT SHORT OF BEING COMPLETELY
    ADEQUATE, AND THOUGH THERE IS NO GUARANTEE THAT THEY
    WILL CONTINUE IN A DEPENDABLY RELIABLE MANNER, THESE
    CONTRIBUTIONS ARE SIGNIFICANT AND ANYONE WORKING TO
    PROVIDE ADDITIONAL ASSISTANCE MUST BE CAREFUL TO
    COORDINATE CLOSELY WITH THE STATE AND LOCAL GOVERNMENTS
    TO AVOID DUPLICATION, SO AS NOT TO PROVIDE THE
    GOVERNMENT WITH AN EXCUSE TO WITHDRAW FROM THE
    RELIEF/REHABILITATION EFFORTS.  THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT
    IS NOW PARTICIPATING IN THE RELIEF EFFORT, HAVING TWICE
    SENT EVALUATION TEAMS FROM THE NATIONAL EMERGENCY
    MANAGEMENT AGENCY (NEMA) AND PROVIDING KANO STATE WITH
    $300,000 FOR RELIEF EFFORTS.  (THE AMOUNT OF FEDERAL
    GOVERNMENT AID TO JIGAWA WAS NOT CONFIRMED, BUT IS
    BELIEVED TO BE EQUIVALENT TO THAT PROVIDED TO KANO.)

    ¶8. IN ADDITION, JIGAWA JUST RECEIVED #100,000 BRITISH
    POUND, FROM DFID OF THE BRITISH GOVERNMENT (JIGAWA
    HAVING BEEN IDENTIFIED AS A DFID +FOCUS; STATE WELL
    BEFORE THE PRESENT CRISIS.)  THOUGH JIGAWA IS LESS
    POPULATED THAN KANO, FLOOD DAMAGE ON THE WHOLE APPEARS
    TO HAVE BEEN WORSE THERE, WITH MORE HOMES AND FIELDS
    LOST THAN IN KANO, AND MORE AREAS STILL UNDER WATER.

    ¶9. BOTH STATE GOVERNMENTS WERE ABLE TO SECURE A LIMITED
    AMOUNT OF MEDICAL SUPPLIES FROM UNICEF, AND LOCAL
    GOVERNMENT AREAS HAVE ALSO RECEIVED ASSISTANCE FROM
    LOCAL BUSINESSMEN.  THE NIGERIAN RED CROSS PROVIDED
    SOME SMALL DIRECT ASSISTANCE TO BENEFICIARIES USING
    BOTH THEIR OWN RESOURCES AND FEDERATION FUNDING ($5000
    TO DATE.)  USAID EXPENDED $1000 OF THE $25,000 DISASTER
    GRANT ON SOME RELIEF MATERIALS AND HAS TURNED OVER THE
    REMAINING $24,000 VIA A GRANT TO THE INTERNATIONAL
    FEDERATION OF RED CROSS AND RED CRESCENT SOCIETIES.  NO
    OTHER EXTERNAL ASSISTANCE HAS YET BEEN FORTHCOMING, AND
    NO INTERNATIONAL RELIEF AGENCIES HAVE SET UP IN THE
    AREA.  A DELEGATION FROM THE JAPANESE EMBASSY ARRIVED
    IN KANO ONE DAY AFTER THE OFDA REPRESENTATIVE FOR AN
    ASSESSMENT OF THE SITUATIOM, BUT THEIR ASSISTANCE
    PLANS, IF ANY, ARE NOT YET KNOWN.  DFID JOINED OFDA IN
    THE HELICOPTER FLYOVER ON SEPTEMBER 20TH, AND HAS, AS
    PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED, JUST MADE #100,000 AVAILABLE TO
    JIGAWA STATE GOVERNMENT FOR DISASTER RELIEF.

    COMMENT:  PART OF THE PROBLEM IN THE NIGERIAN CONTEXT,
    PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTH, WOULD APPEAR TO BE THAT
    INTERNATIONAL AGENCIES, INCLUDING UN AGENCIES, ARE NOT
    HIGHLY PRESENT IN THE COUNTRY. ICRC HAS A VERY SMALL
    OFFICE IN LAGOS.  UNDP AND UNICEF HAVE OFFICES IN KANO,
    BUT THESE OFFICES ARE SMALL.  (THE OFDA REPRESENTATIVE
    ATTEMPTED TO CONTACT BOTH ORGANIZATIONS IN KANO, BUT
    THEY APPEAR TO BE ONE-MAN OFFICES AND THE
    REPRESENTATIVES WERE NOT AVAILABLE IN THE SHORT TIME
    FRAME OF THE VISIT.)  THOUGH OTHER LARGE INTERNATIONAL
    NGOS MAY HAVE OFFICES IN LAGOS AND PROGRAMS IN SOUTHERN
    AREAS, NONE APPEAR TO HAVE ANY PRESENCE AT ALL IN THE
    FLOOD-AFFECTED PARTS OF THE COUNTRY-NO ONE APPEARED TO
    HAVE EVEN HEARD OF MOST OF THEM-AND NONE HAVE COME TO
    DO ASSESMENTS OF THE RECENT DISASTER.  BEING AN AREA OF
    INTENSE AGRICULTURAL ACTIVITY, IT IS CLEARLY NOT
    NORMALLY A DEFICIT AREA IN TERMS OF FOOD SECURITY,
    WHICH WOULD EXPLAIN THE LACK OF A WFP PRESENCE AND ANY
    FFP SUPPORT. END OF COMMENT

    ----------------------------------------
    PRESENT NEEDS
    ----------------------------------------

    ¶10. IN GENERAL, THE NIGERIAN GOVERNMENT INSTITUTIONS,
    AND PARTICULARLY THE LOCAL AND STATE GOVERNMENTS, HAVE
    RESPONDED ADMIRABLY TO MANY OF THE URGENT NEEDS OF THE
    FLOOD VICTIMS.  GOVERNMENT ASSISTANCE WAS THE FIRST TO
    ARRIVE, AND REMAINS, BY FAR, THE MOST SIGNIFICANT
    ASSISTANCE TO DATE.  THE CONCERN IS NOT THAT THERE ARE
    SERIOUS GAPS IN THE ASSISTANCE-(RELATIVELY FEW OF THE
    VICTIMS MET DURING THE ASSESSMENT COMPLAINED ABOUT THE
    QUANTITY OR QUALITY OF THE RESPONSE)-BUT THAT THE
    GOVERNMENT MAY NOT BE ABLE TO KEEP UP REGULAR
    ASSISTANCE AND COMPLETE AMBITIOUS PROGRAMS THAT IT HAS
    INITIATED OR PROMISED.  THERE ARE ALREADY SIGNS,
    PARTICULARLY IN JIGAWA STATE, THAT GOVERNMENT
    ASSISTANCE WILL WANE OVER TIME, AND THAT MORE EXTERNAL
    RESPONSES WILL BE NEEDED.  FURTHERMORE, IT WILL BE
    NECESSARY TO FINE-TUNE THE ASSISTANCE, WITH ASSISTANCE
    PROVIDERS, NOW PROCEEDING TO EVALUATE CAREFULLY ON A
    FAMILY-BY-FAMILY BASIS, AS THE FLOOD WATERS RECEDE, THE
    EXACT EXTENT OF THE AFFECTED POPULATION  LOSSES AND
    THEIR MINIMUM SHORT AND LONG-TERM NEEDS.

    ¶11.  ADDITIONAL TEMPORARY SHELTER APPEARS NOT TO BE A
    CONCERN.  SEVERAL THOUSAND HOMES HAVE BEEN DESTROYED BY
    THE FLOOD, AND A FEW VILLAGES ARE STILL UNDER WATER.
    NEVERTHELESS, THE + DISPLACED PERSONS/FAMILIES ;
    SITUATION WOULD SEEM TO BE UNDER CONTROL.  NO
    POPULATIONS APPEAR TO BE COMPLETELY SHELTER-LESS AT THE
    PRESENT TIME, THE GOVERNMENT HAVING ASSIGNED SCHOOLS
    AND OTHER PUBLIC BUILDINGS, OR RENTED PRIVATE
    BUILDINGS, TO TAKE CARE OF THOSE THAT WERE NOT ABLE TO
    MOVE IN WITH RELATIVES OR FRIENDS IN NON-AFFECTED
    HOUSES OR AREAS.  THE NUMBERS ARE NOT THAT HIGH, IN ANY
    CASE, AND MANY WHO WERE ORIGINALLY CAMPING IN GROUP
    SHELTER AREAS HAVE SINCE MOVED OUT, PREFERING TO EITHER
    STAY WITH FRIENDS AND RELATIVES, OR TO MOVE TO RENTED
    HOUSING IN TOWNS, OR TO RETURN TO IMPROVISED HOUSING
    BACK IN THEIR HOME VILLAGES (FOR THOSE CASES WHERE THE
    WATER HAS ALREADY RECEDED).

    AS THE GROUP SHELTER AREAS ARE NOT FAR FROM THE
    DISPLACED HOME VILLAGES, AND IN MANY CASES + BELONG ;
    IN SOME SENSE ANYWAY TO THE COMMUNITIES AFFECTED, THE
    ARRANGEMENT HAS CAUSED SO FAR MINIMAL DISRUPTION.
    SCHOOL HAS BEEN SUSPENDED IN SOME AREAS DUE TO
    OCCUPATION OF THE BUILDING BY THE DISPLACED, BUT IT IS
    LIKELY THAT A SOLUTION TO THIS PROBLEM WILL BE SOON
    IMPROVISED.  (IN SOME SCHOOLS HOUSING THE DISPLACED,
    SOME CLASSROOMS HAVE BEEN KEPT CLEAR FOR SCHOOL USE AND
    THE SHORTAGE OF SPACE COMPENSATED FOR BY A MOVE TO A
    TWO-SHIFT SYSTEM.)

    SOCIAL PROBLEMS MIGHT OCCUR IN THE FUTURE IF THE
    DISPLACED REMAIN IN THE BUILDINGS FOR MORE THAN A FEW
    MONTHS, WHICH IS WHY IT IS IMPORTANT THAT THESE PEOPLE
    BE ASSISTED SOON TO DECIDE UPON RECONSTRUCTION SITES
    AND PROVIDED MATERIALS TO USE IN RECONSTRUCTION.  THERE
    IS NO DESIRE TO REMAIN IN GROUP SHELTERS.  UNLESS THERE
    IS MORE HEAVY RAIN (WHICH HAS NOT BEEN TRUE SINCE
    AUGUST), ALL THE VILLAGES FROM WHICH THE DISPLACED CAME
    WILL PROBABLY BE COMPLETELY ACCESSIBLE IN TWO OR THREE
    WEEKS TIME, OPENING THE POSSIBILITY OF RETURN,
    ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE WHOSE HOUSES WERE CONSTRUCTED OF
    CONCRETE BLOCK AND ARE THUS PROBABLY RECOVERABLE.
    THOUGH MANY ARE SAYING THAT THEY DO NOT WANT TO RETURN
    TO THE SAME VILLAGES, FEARING THAT NEXT YEAR THE SAME
    THING COULD HAPPEN AGAIN, IN AREAS WHERE THE WATER HAS
    RECEDED, MANY CLEARLY ALREADY HAVE RETURNED.  WHAT
    COULD KEEP PEOPLE IN GROUP SHELTER AREAS LONGER THAN IS
    ADVISABLE IS THE GOVERNMENT  STATED PROMISE TO
    RESETTLE THE DISPLACED TO NEW SITES ON HIGHER GROUND,
    WHICH MAY NOT BE ACTED UPON QUICKLY.  IN SOME CASES THE
    GOVERNMENT IS SAYING THAT IN ORDER TO OBTAIN A NEW SITE
    FOR A VILLAGE, THEY MUST WAIT UNTIL THE HARVEST OF
    NOVEMBER-DECEMBER IS OVER, SINCE MOST OF THE AREAS THEY
    MIGHT MOVE TO ARE CURRENTLY PLANTED FIELDS AND THE
    GOVERNMENT WILL HAVE TO PURCHASE THE LAND FROM PRESENT
    OWNERS.

    IN ANY CASE, THERE IS NO REASON AT PRESENT TO MOVE TO
    ANOTHER SHELTER THAT WILL NOT BE A PERMANENT ONE, ONCE
    IT IS DECIDED-BY GOVERNMENT, OR ON A FAMILY BY FAMILY
    BASIS-WHERE THEY SHOULD REBUILD, THESE FAMILIES COULD
    PROBALBY USE SOME PLASTIC SHEETING TO IMPROVISE
    TEMPORARY HOUSING ON THEIR NEW (OR OLD) RECONSTRUCTION
    SITES, AS WELL AS CEMENT, ROOFING WOOD, TIN ROOFING AND
    DOOR-/WINDOW SETS TO BEGIN CONSTRUCTION OF NEW HOUSING.
    SINCE MANY OF THESE PEOPLE LIVED IN EXTENDED-FAMILY
    COMPOUNDS WITH MULTIPLE BUILDINGS, IT SHOULD BE
    EMPHASIZED FROM THE START THAT ASSISTANCE CAN NOT
    REPLACE WHAT HAS BEEN LOST, BUT ONLY PROVIDE  PERHAPS
    THE FIRST PERMANENT STRUCTURE OF THE FUTURE COMPOUND
    (EXCEPT, OF COURSE, IN THE UNLIKELY EVENT THAT STATE
    GOVERNMENT, OR SOME OTHER DONOR, MAKES AVAILABLE THE
    RESOURCES FOR COMPLETE RECONSTRUCTION.)

    ¶12.  THE FLOODED VILLAGES LOST ANY FOOD STOCKS THEY HAD
    AND WILL NOT BE ABLE TO HARVEST MUCH FROM ANY REMAINING
    VIABLE FIELDS UNTIL LATER NOVEMBER OR DECEMBER OF THIS
    YEAR.  EVEN IN LOCATIONS WHERE RESIDENTS WERE ABLE TO
    KEEP FLOOD WATERS FROM ENTERING THE VILLAGE PROPER,
    MUCH EARLY-HARVEST MILLET INTENDED TO TIE THE
    POPULATION OVER UNTIL THE MAIN HARVEST LATER THIS YEAR
    HAD BEEN LEFT IN THE FIELDS AND THUS HAS BEEN LOST.
    PARTICULARLY WORRISOME IS THAT MOST OF THE CLOSE-TO-
    THE-GROUND PROTEIN CROPS, LIKE BEANS AND BAMBARA SEED,
    AS WELL AS THE INCOME-PRODUCING CROPS, SUCH AS RICE,
    HAVE BEEN LARGELY DESTROYED.

    REGULAR FOOD DISTRIBUTIONS WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY
    UNTIL DECEMBER OF 2002-THE NEXT HARVEST.  FOR FAMILIES
    STILL ABLE TO HARVEST CONSIDERABLE AMOUNTS OF MILLET
    AND GUINEA CORN IN DECEMBER OF THIS  YEAR, FOOD
    ASSISTANCE MAY BE REDUCED AT THAT TIME TO JUST PROTEIN
    AND OTHER NON-STAPLE COMMODITIES.

    ¶13. SAFE DRINKING WATER REMAINS A CONCERN FOR ALL.
    THERE HAVE BEEN NO OUTBREAKS OF WATER-BORN DISEASES TO
    DATE, BUT THIS REMAINS AN AREA OF VULNERABILITY.
    THOUGH THE GOVERNMENT HAS CHLORINATED SOME CONTAMINATED
    WELLS, AND DUG SOME NEW WELLS (IN RESETTLEMENT AREAS),
    HEALTH OFFICIALS WILL NEED TO BOTH (A) EXPAND THE
    EFFORT TO ENSURE THAT ALL AFFECTED POPULATIONS HAVE
    ACCESS TO SAFE DRINKING WATER, (B) FOLLOW UP ON INITIAL
    INTERVENTIONS, PROVIDING ADDITIONAL CHLORINE AS
    NECESSARY, AND (C) MAKE SURE THAT THE POPULATIONS ARE
    WELL-EDUCATED CONCERNING THE DANGERS OF USING NON-
    TESTED WATER.

    ¶14. A SPECIAL MEDICAL INTERVENTION WOULD NOT SEEM TO BE
    INDICATED AT THIS JUNCTURE, SINCE THERE HAVE BEEN NO
    UNUSUAL MEDICAL PROBLEMS AND SINCE THE AFFECTED
    POPULATIONS, IN GENERAL, HAVE ACCESS TO THE SAME
    MEDICAL CARE THAT THEY DID BEFORE THE FLOOD.  SEVERAL
    OF THE LOCAL GOVERNMENTS HAVE SPONSORED THE SENDING OUT
    OF SPECIAL + MOBILE CLINIC ; TO TREAT SPECIFICALLY
    THOSE DIRECTLY-AFFECTED BY THE FLOODING.  THIS EFFORT
    SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL IT IS CLEAR THAT THE SITUATION
    WILL REMAIN STABLE.

    ¶15. CERTAIN OTHER NON-FOOD ITEMS WOULD BE OF USE,
    THOUGH THESE DO NOT APPEAR TO BE URGENT NEEDS.
    ADDITIONAL CLOTHING FOR FAMILIES WHOSE HOUSES WERE
    FLOODED WOULD NO DOUBT BE MOST WELCOME, FOR EXAMPLE, AS
    WELL AS KITCHEN SETS FOR THOSE WHO HAVE LOST WHAT THEY
    HAD.  (FRIENDS AND NEIGHBORS HAVE, IN MOST CASES,
    LOANED THE DISPLACED THE MATERIALS NEEDED FOR COOKING,
    BUT INDIVIDUAL KITCHEN SETS WILL PROBALBY BE NEEDED
    WHEN THE DISPLACED LIVING-AND COOKING-IN GROUPS AT THE
    PRESENT TIME RETURN TO FAMILY HOUSING.)  LATER ON
    (AFTER RECONSTRUCTION), SEED AND TOOL DISTRIBUTIONS
    WILL BECOME IMPORTANT.

    -----------------------------------------
    POSSIBLE COURSES OF ACTION -  GENERAL
    -----------------------------------------

    ¶16. IN ADDITION TO CONTINUING FOOD DISTRIBUTIONS AND
    PROVIDING NON-FOOD ASSISTANCE WHERE NECESSARY, THE
    NIGERIAN GOVERNMENT SHOULD BE STRONGLY ENCOURAGED TO
    MOVE QUICKLY IN THE PROCESS OF DETERMINING WHERE THE
    AFFECTED POPULATIONS WILL RECONSTRUCT HOUSING AND BEGIN
    PROVIDING MATERIALS TO ENABLE THOSE IN NEED TO BEGIN
    THE RECONSTRUCTION EFFORT.

    THOUGH AT THE PRESENT MOMENT VIRTUALLLY EVERYONE IS
    TALKING ABOUT + RESETTLEMENT TO SAFER AREAS ;, THESE
    SENTIMENTS AND INTENTIONS MAY LOSE FORCE OVER TIME AS
    PEOPLE SEE THE FLOOD WATERS RECEDE AND THEIR ORIGINAL
    SITES BECOME ACCESSIBLE AGAIN.  FURTHERMORE, IN
    RESETTLEMENT PLANS THERE REMAINS THE COMPLICATED
    QUESTION OF WHAT WILL HAPPEN TO THOSE FAMILIES WHO DID
    NOT LOSE THEIR HOUSES (WHOSE HOUSES WERE MADE OUT OF
    CEMENT BLOCKS, FOR EXAMPLE).  DO THEY ALSO MOVE?  IF
    SO, DOES SOMEONE PROVIDE THEM RECONSTRUCTION SUPPORT AS
    WELL?

    THERE IS EVIDENCE THAT THE NIGERIAN GOVERNMENT MAY HAVE
    AN OVERLY-AMBITIOUS CONCEPT OF RECONSTRUCTION, WHEREIN
    THE GOVERNMENT-OR OTHER DONORS-DO NOT JUST SUPPLY
    MATERIALS FOR A SMALL BASIC PERMANENT DWELLING, BUT
    ACTUALLY BUILD LARGE NEW HOUSES-USING PAID LABOR-FOR
    THE FLOOD AFFECTED POPULATIONS.  SIMPLER-AND QUICKER-
    SOLUTIONS TO RECONSTRUCTION NEED TO BE CONSIDERED AND
    INITIATED, PREFERABLY IN THE NEXT FEW WEEKS.

    ¶17. THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY SHOULD POSITON ITSELF
    TO MONITOR THE SITUATION CLOSELY, AND TO THE EXTENT
    POSSIBLE, BE READY TO RESPOND-PARTICULARLY WITH FOOD,
    BLANKETS, WATER AND MEDICINE-WHEREVER IT IS CLEAR THAT
    THE NIGERIAN GOVERNMENT CAN NOT RESPOND IN A TIMELY
    FASHION.  EXTERNAL DONORS AND ACTORS MUST BE EXTREMELY
    CAREFUL TO ONLY COMPLEMENT NIGERIAN GOVERNMENT EFFORTS,
    AND NOT SEEM IN ANY WAY TO BE COMPETING WITH GOVERNMENT
    ASSISTANCE.  CLOSE COORDINATION WITH GOVERNMENT RELIEF
    AGENCIES IS THUS OF THE UTMOST IMPORTANCE.
    INTERNATIONAL ACTORS AND DONORS MUST WORK IN THE
    BACKGROUND AND ADOPT A PURELY SUPPORTIVE ROLE.  THOUGH
    THEY NEED NOT CHANNEL THEIR RESOURCES THROUGH THE
    GOVERNMENT AGENCIES, THEY MUST TAKE CARE AS TO NOT BE
    SEEN TO BE OPERATING INDEPENDENTLY OF THE GOVERNMENT,
    LEST THE GOVERNMENT PERCEIVE THE OPPORTUNITY TO
    WITHDRAW AND SHIFT PRIMARY RESPONSIBILITY FOR THE
    RESPONSE TO THE DISASTER TO EXTERNAL ACTORS.

    ¶18. BOTH NIGERIAN GOVERNMENT AND INTERNATIONAL
    COMMUNITY SHOULD VERIFY THAT THERE  HAS NOT BEEN
    EXTENSIVE DAMAGE FURTHER DOWN THE RIVER FROM THE
    ORIGINAL FLOODED AREA.  THERE ARE UNCONFIRMED REPORTS,
    FOR EXAMPLE, THAT SOME 40 VILLAGES IN YOBE STATE HAVE
    ALSO BEEN AFFECTED, YET LITTLE ATTENTION SEEMS SO FAR
    TO HAVE BEEN PAID TO THIS AREA.  THE SITUATION MUST BE
    CAREFULLY MONITORED UNTIL THE FLOOD PEAK FINALLY MAKES
    ITS WAY TO LAKE CHAD OR CEASES TO BE A PROBLEM.

    --------------------------------------------- -
    POSSIBLE COURSES OF ACTION  FDA SPECIFIC
    --------------------------------------------- -

    ¶19. THE ROLE OF INTERNATIONAL DONORS AND ACTORS AT THIS
    POINT SHOULD BE TO COMPLEMENT-BUT NOT SUPPLANT -
    NIGERIAN GOVERNMENT ASISTANCE WHEREVER THIS APPEARS TO
    BE FALLING SHORT OF THE MINIMUM.  THE USG  $24,000
    DISASTER GRANT TO THE IFRCS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR
    USG INVOLVEMENT OF THIS SORT IN THE SHORT TERM, SINCE
    NIGERIAN GOVERNMENT ASSISTANCE IS STILL BEING PROVIDED.
    AS THE GOVERNMENT IS CURRENTLY ACTIVE IN ALL SECTORS-
    SHELTER, HEALTH, WATER, FOOD, AND NON-FOOD NECESSITIES-
    INTERVENTIONS CANNOT YET BE DEFINITIVELY PLANNED ALONG
    SECTORAL LINES.  IFRCS MIGHT, HOWEVER, FIND IT
    PARTICULARLY USEFUL TO BE ACTIVELY INVOLED IN WATER AND
    SANITATION EFFORTS, AS IT IS UNCLEAR THAT NIGERIAN
    GOVERNMENT ATTENTION TO THIS IMPORTANT AREA HAS BEEN
    UNIFORM AND CONSISTENT THROUGHOUT THE AFFECTED REGIONS.
    LOCAL PURCHASE OF ADDITIONAL FOOD AND NON-FOOD ITEMS
    SHOULD NOT BE EXCLUDED, HOWEVER, SHOULD CONDITIONS
    WARRANT IT.

    ¶20. THE INEVITABLE SERIOUS LAPSES IN NIGERIAN
    GOVERNMENT ASSISTANCE SHOULD BECOME MORE READILY
    APPARENT OVER THE NEXT MONTH.  DURING THIS TIME,
    USAID/NIGERIA AND ANY INTERESTED INTERNATIONAL NGOS
    WILL HAVE THE OPPORTUNIY TO DETERMINE MORE SPECIFICALLY
    HOW THE GOVERNMENT  EFFORTS MIGHT BEST BE COMPLEMENTED
    AND TO DEVELOP RESPONSE PLANS AND PROPOSALS FOR
    SUBMISSION TO OFDA OR OTHER USG AGENCIES.  MUCH BETTER
    AND DETAILED INFORMATION AS TO SUCH QUESTIONS AS TO
    EXACTLY HOW MANY HOMES WERE DESTROYED AND WHAT
    PERCENTAGE OF FARMERS LOST WHAT PERCENTAGE OF WHICH
    CROPS SHOULD ALSO BE FORTHCOMING.

    ¶21. THE NEXT MONTH OR TWO SHOULD ALSO PROVIDE BOTH
    USAID AND OFDA A CHANCE TO EVALUATE FURTHER THE GRAVITY
    OF THE DISASTER BUT ALSO THE VALUE AND QUALITY OF THE
    RESPONSE BY ANY INTERNATIONAL NGOS WHO BECOME INVOLVED,
    AND THUS PROVIDE USAID AND OFDA CLEAR IDEAS REGARDING
    WHO MIGHT BE THE MOST EFFECTIVE PARTNERS FOR FURTHER
    ASSISTANCE TO THIS POPULATION.

    ¶22. A POTENTIAL AND VERY USEFUL ROLE FOR USG FUNDING TO
    PLAY IN THE NEAR FUTURE MIGHT WELL BE IN THE
    RECONSTRUCTION EFFORT, PROVIDING, FOR EXAMPLE, A SET,
    STANDARD AMOUNT OF CEMENT, ROOFING MATERIALS, BRICKS,
    DOORS AND WINDOWS TO EACH FAMILY PROVEN TO HAVE LOST
    ALL PERMANENT HOUSING.

    ¶23. A SECOND POTENTIAL ROLE FOR USG-FUNDED PARTNERS
    COULD WELL BE IN THE WATER-SANITATION DOMAIN, EITHER
    REPAIRING DAMAGED WATER SOURCES IN THE ORIGINAL FLOODED
    VILLAGES OR DIGGING NEW WELLS AT NEW RESETTLEMENT
    SITES, DEPENDING ON THE HABITATION PATTERNS THAT
    DEVELOP AS THE WATERS RECEDE.

    ¶24. CENTRAL TO BOTH OF THE ABOVE POTENTIAL ROLES FOR
    USG-FUNDED PARTNERS WOULD APPEAR TO BE CLOSE
    COORDINATION WITH THE NIGERIAN GOVERNMENT IN PLANNING
    THE DISASTER RESPONSE, AND PARTICULARLY IN PROMOTING
    THE RAPID DETERMINATION OF WHERE RECONSTRUCTION WILL
    TAKE PLACE.

    ¶25. THERE IS AN INTERESTING POTENTIAL ROLE FOR USG/OFDA
    FUNDING WITH REGARD TO FUTURE FLOOD MITIGATION.  THOUGH
    IT IS PERFECTLY CLEAR THAT THE FLOOD RESULTED FROM SOME
    EXTRAORDINARILY HEAVY RAINS IN CLOSE SUCCESSION DURING
    THE MONTH OF AUGUST, NO TECHNICAL STUDY HAS YET BEEN
    ATTEMPTED TO DETERMINE WHAT, IF ANYTHING, COULD HAVE
    BEEN DONE BEFORE OR DURING THE RAINS TO MITIGATE THE
    EFFECTS.  COULD, FOR EXAMPLE, SOME OF THE WATER IN THE
    RESERVOIRS BEEN RELEASED IN SMALL QUANTITIES TO PREVENT
    THE WATER COMING OVER THE TOP ALL OF A SUDDEN CREATING
    A FLASH-FLOOD SITUATION AS OPPOSED TO A GRADUAL ONE?
    THE PURPOSE OF THE STUDY WOULD NOT BE TO ASSIGN FAULT,
    BUT GIVEN THAT THIS IS THE FIRST TIME EVER THAT THIS
    EXACTLY HAS HAPPENED-THE FIRST MAJOY FLOOD SINCE THE
    DAMS WERE CONSTRUCTED-AND THAT IT IS NOT PRACTICAL TO
    SIMPLY GIVE UP FARMING THIS LARGE AREA OF FERTILE LAND
    JUST BECAUSE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THAT SOME YEAR IN
    THE FUTURE IT MIGHT HAPPEN AGAIN, IT WOULD BE USEFUL TO
    NOW STUDY IN DETAIL THE CAUSES AND POSSIBLE MEANS OF
    PREVENTING A REOCCURENCE SHOULD NEXT YEAR, OR THE YEAR
    AFTER, THERE ONCE AGAIN BE HEAVY RAINS.  RIGHT NOW, THE
    AUTHORITIES ARE SAYING THEY WANT EVERYONE TO AT LEAST
    MOVE TO THEIR RESIDENCES TO NEW LOCATIONS, AND MUCH OF
    THE POPULATION, STILL TRAUMATIZED, HAS AGREED TO MOVE.
     IF, HOWEVER, THE GOVERNMENT WILL AT SOME POINT GET
    INTO A SITUATION WHERE IT MUST CONVINCE PEOPLE TO MOVE
    TO HIGHER GROUND, THE DISCUSSION WILL BE MORE
    PRODUCTIVE IT IS BETTER INFORMED, I.E. IF EXPERTS HAVE
    LOOKED AT THE SITUATION AND DETERMINED THE DEGREE TO
    WHICH A REOCCURENCE WOULD BE PREVENTABLE, GIVEN THE NEW
    DISCOVERY THAT THIS IS A DANGER TO ALWAYS BE ON THE
    LOOKOUT FOR.
    ANDREWS

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