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### Viewing cable 03PRETORIA2471, FOREIGN INVESTMENT IN SADC.

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
03PRETORIA2471 | 2003-05-12 14:34 | 2011-08-24 01:00 | UNCLASSIFIED | Embassy Pretoria

`

    O 121434Z MAY 03
    FM AMEMBASSY PRETORIA
    TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 1586
    AMCONSUL CAPE TOWN PRIORITY
    AMCONSUL DURBAN PRIORITY
    AMCONSUL JOHANNESBURG PRIORITY
    INFO SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY

` `

    UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 PRETORIA 002471

    E.O. 12958: N/A
    TAGS: EAID PREL PGOV ECON SF
    SUBJECT: FOREIGN INVESTMENT IN SADC.

    SUMMARY
    -------

    ¶1.   THESE TWO REVIEWS OF FOREIGN INVESTMENT PRESENT SOME NEW OR
    DIFFERENT INFORMATION ON THE PICTURE. THE STUDY ON EUROPEAN
    INVESTMENT INTO SOUTHERN AFRICA EMPHASIZED THAT ALL THE FIRMS SELL
    LOCALLY, BUT ONLY 14% OF THE FOREIGN OWNED FIRMS EXPORT FROM THE
    REGION. THEIR MAIN REASON FOR BEING IN SADC IS TO SELL TO SADC,
    NOT TO EXPORT AND NOT BECAUSE SADC IS AN INEXPENSIVE PLACE TO
    PRODUCE. AGOA IS CHANGING THIS, BUT MAINLY FOR TEXTILES AND
    CLOTHING (WHICH ARE LIKELY TO LEAVE SADC ONCE PREFERENTIAL ACCESS
    IS WITHDRAWN). PRIVATIZATION (INCLUDING PUBLIC-PRIVATE
    PARTNERSHIPS) IS A GOOD WAY TO ATTRACT FOREIGN INVESTMENT, BEING
    THE REASON GIVEN FOR 19% OF THE FIRMS BEING HERE.

    ¶2.   FDI IS NOT A GOOD WAY TO CREATE JOBS. WHILE A QUARTER
    EXPANDED EMPLOYMENT, A THIRD CONTRACTED EMPLOYMENT IN THE LAST FIVE YEARS.
    TWO-THIRDS OF THE FOREIGN FIRMS EMPLOY EXPERTS; IN 1/3 OF THE
    CASES THERE WAS LOCALIZATION OF FOREIGN POSITIONS, THUS DECREASING
    THE NUMBER OF FOREIGNERS AND INCREASING TECH TRANSFER.

    ¶3.   HALF THE FOREIGN FIRMS EXPECT TO EXPAND IN THE NEXT FIVE
    YEARS COMPARED TO 10% OF THE FIRMS (ALMOST ALL IN ZIMBABWE) WHO EXPECT
    TO CONTRACT.

    ¶4.   INCENTIVES WILL NOT WORK IN ATTRACTING FIRMS TO SOUTHERN
    AFRICA AS THEY COME DUE TO FACTORS NOT INFLUENCED BY INCENTIVES
    (SIZE OF THE MARKET, PRIVATIZATION, AND PERSONAL REASONS) BUT WILL
    ¶5. WORK IN DECIDING LOCATION ONCE THEY HAVE DECIDED TO COME TO
    THE REGION. THIS MAKES INCENTIVES ESSENTIALLY A ZERO-SUM GAME FOR
    THE COUNTRIES IN THE REGION.

    ¶6.   THE REVIEW OF FOREIGN INVESTMENT IN AFRICA NOTED THAT TOTAL
    RESOURCE FLOWS TO NON-SOUTH AFRICA SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA  HAVE FALLEN
    SLIGHTLY SINCE THE EARLY 90S BUT THIS IS BECAUSE OF REDUCED
    FOREIGN DONOR LOANS (REDUCED WORLD BANK ACTIVITY). THERE HAS BEEN
    AN INCREASE IN FOREIGN DOMESTIC INVESTMENT AND FOREIGN DONOR
    GRANTS HAVE BEEN ROUGHLY CONSTANT. THE PICTURE IS DIFFERENT FROM
    OTHER REGIONS WHICH HAD A LARGE EXPANSION IN FOREIGN DIRECT AND
    FOREIGN PORTFOLIO INVESTMENT IN THE MID-90S BUT WHICH HAVE HAD
    REDUCTIONS SINCE THEN.

    ¶7.   ALSO INTERESTING IS THAT FDI IN ALL OF SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA HAD
    ACCOUNTED FOR 3.6% OF TOTAL INVESTMENT IN THESE COUNTRIES IN THE
    EARLY 90S, BUT ACCOUNTS FOR OVER 11% NOW. WITH FDI INCREASING IN
    ABSOLUTE AMOUNTS, THE PICTURE EMERGES THAT IT IS NOT FDI THAT IS
    ABANDONING SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA, IT IS AFRICAN DOMESTIC INVESTMENT,
    AND FOREIGNERS ARE NOT INVESTING ENOUGH TO MAKE UP FOR THIS
    DECREASE.

    ¶8.   US DATA SHOWS THAT THE RATE OF RETURN ON AFRICAN INVESTMENTS
    IS THE HIGHEST OF ANY REGION, 21% NOW COMPARED TO 30% IN THE EARLY
    90S. WHILE SOME ARGUE THAT THIS IS BECAUSE OF GREATER VOLATILITY
    IN RETURNS IN AFRICA THE DATA DOES NOT BEAR THEM OUT. AFRICA'S
    VARIABILITY IN RETURNS IS CLOSE TO THAT IN THE MIDDLE EAST AND
    LOWER THAN THE VARIABILITY IN SOUTH AMERICA WHERE THE AVERAGE
    RETURNS ARE LESS. PERCEPTIONS OF RISK ARE HIGHER.  END SUMMARY.

    BACKGROUND
    ----------

    ¶9.   THIS SUMMARIZES PAPERS PRESENTED AT A WORKSHOP ORGANIZED BY
    THE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENCY ON 9 APRIL 2003.  THE FIRST DEALS
    WITH EUROPEAN INVESTMENT IN SADC AND THE SECOND WITH FOREIGN
    INVESTMENT IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA. THE PRESENTATION WAS PART OF AN
    EFFORT BY THE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENCY TO PRESENT NEW RESEARCH ON
    TOPICS OF CRUCIAL INTEREST TO SA.

    JENKINS AND THOMAS: FDI IN SOUTHERN AFRICA
    ------------------------------------------

    ¶10.  THE JENKINS/THOMAS PAPER IS A RESULT OF INTERVIEWS WITH 81
    UK, SWISS AND GERMAN FIRMS ON THEIR INVESTMENTS IN SADC.

    WHY INVEST IN SADC?
    -------------------

    ?    84% - SIZE OF THE LOCAL MARKET,
    ?    40% - LOCAL RAW MATERIALS
    ?    26% - PERSONAL REASONS
    ?    21% - STRATEGIC REASONS (NEAR PARTNERS)
    ?    19% - PRIVATIZATION OR PUBLIC-PRIVATE PARTNERSHIPS.

    ¶11.  FIRMS ARE IN SADC TO SELL TO SADC, NOT  FOR EXPORT (EXCEPT
    FOR THE MINERAL COMPANIES) AND NOT BECAUSE THE AREA IS A CHEAP
    PLACE TO PRODUCE.  BECAUSE THEY ARE IN THE REGION FOR THE LOCAL
    ORE FOREIGN FIRMS WILL INVEST, BUT THEY ARE MOST LIKELY TO INVEST
    IN SA.

    ¶12.  MORE INTERESTING IS THEIR RESULTS ON THE DESTINATION OF THE
    OUTPUT FROM THEIR INVESTMENT. ALL SUPPLIED THE LOCAL MARKET, WITH
    45% SUPPLIED THE REGIONAL MARKET AND 14% EXPORTED OUTSIDE THE
    REGION. FOR ALMOST ALL FIRMS THE REASON FOR INVESTING IS LOCAL,
    NOT TO USE SADC AS A BASE FOR EXPORTS (TEXTILES AND GARMENT
    MANUFACTURERS ESTABLISHED DUE TO AGOA ARE A RECENT NON-EUROPEAN
    EXCEPTION).

    ¶13.  ALL OF THE NON-PRIMARY SECTOR FIRMS EXPORTING GLOBALLY ARE IN
    SA AND THEIR ORIGINAL REASON FOR COMING TO THE REGION WAS TO
    SUPPLY THE LOCAL MARKET. ELSEWHERE IN SADC FIRMS SELLING LOCALLY
    ARE NOT DEVELOPING AN EXPORT CAPACITY.

    ¶14.  IMPLICATION SADC: THESE RESULTS SUGGEST BOTH THE IMPORTANCE
    OF EXPANDING THE REGIONAL MARKET TO INCLUDE SADC AS THE LARGER MARKET
    WILL ATTRACT ADDITIONAL FOREIGN INVESTMENT, AND THE NEED TO MAKE
    CROSS-BORDER MOVEMENTS EASY. AT PRESENT SA WILL ATTRACT NEW
    INVESTMENT TO SELL INTO SADC BECAUSE OF THE SIZE OF THE SA MARKET.
    TO OVERCOME THIS ADVANTAGE, SADC MUST MAKE THE REGION APPEAR AS
    ONE. UNLESS THAT OCCURS, THE BENEFITS OF FDI IN TERMS OF INCOME
    AND JOBS WILL FLOW OVERWHELMINGLY TO SA.

    JOB IMPACT
    ----------

    ¶15.  FDI IS USUALLY PRESENTED AS CRITICAL TO JOB AND INCOME
    GROWTH. UNFORTUNATELY ONLY A QUARTER OF THE FIRMS EXPANDED EMPLOYMENT
    IN THE LAST FIVE YEARS (AND MOST OF THESE WERE NEW INVESTMENTS) WITH
    OVER A THIRD CONTRACTING. ONLY HALF OF THE FIRMS THAT EXPANDED
    PRODUCTION RECENTLY ALSO EXPANDED EMPLOYMENT WITH A NUMBER
    EXPANDING PRODUCTION AND DECREASING EMPLOYMENT.

    ¶16.  THERE ARE FREQUENTLY COMPLAINTS ABOUT THE NUMBER OF
    FOREIGNERS EMPLOYED, AND 2/3 OF THE FIRMS HAD EXPERTS BUT 1/3 HAD
    LOCALIZED PREVIOUSLY FOREIGN POSITIONS.

    FUTURE PLANS
    ------------

    ¶17.  ALMOST 2/3 OF THE FIRMS HAVE EXPANDED (OR STARTED) IN THE
    LAST FIVE YEARS AND JUST OVER HALF PLAN TO EXPAND IN THE COMING YEARS.
    ONLY 8% HAVE CONTRACTED OF LATE AND 10% EXPECT TO CONTRACT IN THE
    COMING YEARS. MOST OF THE CONTRACTIONS ARE CONCENTRATED IN
    ZIMBABWE. THE PICTURE FOR THE REST OF THE REGION IS THUS MUCH MORE
    OPTIMISTIC PICTURE.

    TYPE OF INVESTMENT
    -------------------

    ¶18.  HALF THE NEW INVESTMENTS WERE GREENFIELD (NEW ENTITY) AND
    MOST OF THESE ARE IN SERVICES AND USUALLY ARE WHOLLY CONTROLLED BY
    THE FOREIGN OWNER. ACQUISITIONS, WHICH ARE MORE LIKELY TO BE IN
    PRIMARY PRODUCTION, ARE USUALLY WITH A LOCAL PARTNER. THESE
    ACCOUNT FOR JUST OVER 1/3 OF THE TOTAL BUT ARE OF INCREASING
    IMPORTANCE.

    LEAPE: FDI IN AFRICA
    --------------------

    ¶19.  LEAPE'S PAPER IS A REVIEW OF CURRENTLY AVAILABLE DATA ON FDI.

    ¶20.  IN THE 90'S RESOURCE FLOWS TO NON-SA SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA
    DROPPED SLIGHTLY. BUT THE DROP WAS ALMOST SOLELY DUE TO THE
    REDUCTION IN LONG-TERM OFFICIAL LOANS (ESSENTIALLY THE WORLD BANK)
    WITH FOREIGN GRANTS REASONABLY STEADY AND PRIVATE FDI INCREASING.
    PRIVATE FDI TO NON-OIL PRODUCING COUNTRIES GREW SLIGHTLY FASTER
    THAN FDI TO OIL PRODUCERS AND THE TWO ARE APPROXIMATELY EQUAL NOW.
    COMMERCIAL BANK LENDING, NEVER VERY HIGH, BECAME ESSENTIALLY
    NEGATIVE AS REPAYMENTS BECAME GREATER THAN NEW LOANS.

    ¶21.  THE SITUATION WITH ALL LOW-INCOME COUNTRIES IS DIFFERENT. FDI
    (AND PORTFOLIO INVESTMENT) OUTSIDE AFRICA BOOMED IN THE MID-90S
    AND THUS THE COLLAPSE IN PORTFOLIO INVESTMENT AND THE REDUCTION IN
    FDI HAD A MUCH GREATER IMPACT IN THE LATE 90S AND EARLY IN THE NEW
    CENTURY. COMMERCIAL BANK LENDING WAS MORE IMPORTANT EARLY IN THE
    90S BUT, AS IN AFRICA, HAS TURNED NEGATIVE.

    ¶22.  ALL OF SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA'S SHARE OF FDI HAS FALLEN SINCE THE
    80S, BUT HAS BEEN ROUGHLY CONSTANT AT 3.4% SINCE THE MID-90S. THE
    SAME PATTERN EMERGES EVEN IF WE EXCLUDE OIL-PRODUCING AFRICAN
    COUNTRIES.

    THE 80S FDI IN NON-OIL EXPORTERS IN

    AFRICA WAS 3.6% OF THE REGION'S TOTAL INVESTMENT WHILE IT IS OVER
    11% NOW. FOR LOW-INCOME COUNTRIES GENERALLY THE INCREASE WAS ONLY
    FROM 3.3% TO 7.9%. THIS APPEARS TO CHANGE THE CONCLUSION FROM
    FOREIGN INVESTORS ABANDONING AFRICA TO ONE OF DOMESTIC AFRICAN
    INVESTORS ABANDONING AFRICA. THE INCREASE IN FOREIGN INVESTMENT IS
    INSUFFICIENT TO MAKE UP THE FALL IN DOMESTIC INVESTMENT.  IN ANY
    CASE, DOMESTIC INVESTMENT ACCOUNTS FOR 89% OF TOTAL INVESTMENT,
    ATTENTION SHOULD BE PAID ON INCREASING IT, FINDING WHY ITS
    IMPORTANCE TO THE ECONOMY HAS FALLEN, WHY RESIDENTS ARE NOT
    INVESTING.

    ¶24.  US DATA SHOWS THAT CURRENTLY THERE IS A 21% RETURN ON
    INVESTMENTS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA; IT HAD BEEN 30% IN THE EARLY
    90S. THE AVERAGE RETURN IS MUCH HIGHER THAN FOR ANY OTHER REGION.
    FOR EXAMPLE THE AVERAGE RETURN IS 9.5% IN SOUTH AMERICA AND 14.8%
    IN THE MIDDLE EAST. WHILE THE VARIANCE IN INVESTMENT IN SUB-
    SAHARAN AFRICA IS HIGHER, THE COEFFICIENT OF VARIATION IS
    APPROXIMATELY THE SAME AS IN THE MIDDLE EAST AND BETTER THAN IN
    SOUTH AMERICA. THE VARIABILITY IS CONSIDERABLY GREATER THAN IN ANY
    OF THE RICHER COUNTRIES.

    HUME

`