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### Viewing cable 02ABUJA3341, YEAR-END ECONOMIC POTPOURRI

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
02ABUJA3341 | 2002-12-19 14:43 | 2011-08-25 00:00 | UNCLASSIFIED | Embassy Abuja

`

    This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

` `

    UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 ABUJA 003341

    SIPDIS

    E.O. 12958: N/A
    TAGS: EFIN ECON EPET EAID PGOV NI
    SUBJECT: YEAR-END ECONOMIC POTPOURRI

    REF: ABUJA 3101

    ¶1.    This cable covers:
    -- Ambassador's Meets with World Bank and IMF prior to
    Article Four Consultation Meetings in Washington
    -- Central Bank is Optimistic about Near Term
    -- CBN and IMF Statistics on GDP Differ
    -- GON Not Worried About Drop in FOREX Reserves
    -- CBN Claims States Continue to Receive Derivation Funds at
    same level as before April Supreme Court Decision
    -- Dutch Auction System is a Success Many Happy to Claim
    -- Quick look at Nigeria in the West Africa Monetary Zone

    -- CBN Will not Enforce Interest Rate Cap
    --------------------------------------------- ------------
    Nigeria as Seen by the IFIs: A Glass Half-full or a Broken
    Vessel
    --------------------------------------------- ------------

    ¶1.  Summary. IMF Senior Representative Gary Moser and World
    Bank Country Director Mark Tomlinson called on Ambassador
    Jeter on Sunday, December 15, at his residence to discuss the
    economic and political situation in Nigeria as part of their
    preparation for this week's Article IV Consultations on
    Nigeria in Washington.  Moser believes his policy of low-key,
    behind-the-scenes advice has made a positive impact, while
    Tomlinson reiterated the Bank's frustration with the lack of
    political commitment to poverty reduction and economic reform
    throughout the Nigerian political class.  Both will advise
    their home offices to continue a wait-and-see attitude until
    after next year's elections.  End summary.

    ¶2. IMF Representative Gary Moser listed four areas of success
    by the Nigerian Government: GSM auctions and
    telecommunication reform which tripled the number of phone
    lines in the last 18 months; privatization of state-owned
    enterprises; due process review of Federal Government capital
    projects; and the reintroduction of the Dutch Auction System
    (DAS) which narrowed the difference between the official and
    parallel exchange rates.  Moser says the Fund now enjoys
    close contact and a reservoir of goodwill with key players in
    the Presidency, Central Bank, and with the Federal Accountant
    General's office.  By avoiding the public eye, the IMF has
    quietly helped in the formulation of a number of recent
    policies, especially the introduction of the Dutch Auction
    exchange mechanism.

    ¶3. World Bank Country Director Mark Tomlinson will echo Moser
    in advising his home office to keep a low profile until after
    the elections.  The Bank's official relationship with Nigeria
    deteriorated in 2002 when assistance was set at the low mark
    (approximately $200 million) though that decision was not
    nearly as public as the GON's April announcement of a
    suspension of its program with the IMF.  Whereas the decision
    on the IMF was mutually agreed (despite the politically
    opportunistic public announcement), the GON claims to have
    been taken aback by the reduction of its World Bank program,
    particularly eliminating a $200 million agricultural project.

    ¶4.  Tomlinson believes Nigeria's addiction to easy oil money
    revenues is the problem.  Political elites are too busy
    chasing rents from the petroleum sector to address the core
    problems of the economy. As a result the vast majority of
    Nigerians are resigned to poverty, increasingly worse off
    than the people in neighboring countries who do not enjoy the
    benefit of oil wealth.

    ¶5. Both Moser and Tomlinson think Nigeria will face the worst
    economic crunch in a generation when the GON's wasteful and
    unsustainable policies coincide with the cyclical drop in
    world oil prices projected within the next few years.  The
    World Bank Country Director believes that the Nigerian
    economy hitting bottom within the next several years may
    provide the country's last best hope for meaningful reform,
    poverty reduction, and sustainable non-oil development.  If
    this six or seven year window of opportunity for reform is
    missed, Tomlinson foresees the subsequent income from natural
    gas production perpetuating the status quo of waste and
    corruption which enriches very few while leaving most
    Nigerians in abject poverty.

    --------------------------------------------- ------
    Central Bank is Optimistic About Near Term Policies
    --------------------------------------------- ------

    ¶6. EconOff called on Ernest Ebi, Central Bank Deputy Governor
    for International Operations, on November 15, who argued that
    Nigeria,s homegrown economic program is working and, in most
    cases reflected the goals of the now suspended IMF Stand-By
    Arrangement.  Ebi confirmed that most policies  recently
    implemented were designed to meet IMF benchmarks.  The
    difference, he insisted, is policies are now tempered by
    local considerations, without the one-size-plan-fits-all
    formula used by the IMF.  Because of this, economic reform
    has a better chance of succeeding.  Ebi judged the current
    GON-IMF working relationship as much more positive than
    2000-01 when they had a Stand by Agreement in place.  Despite
    Ebi's esteem for Country Director Gary Moser and IMF
    Washington Office Director Menachem Katz, he and other
    Nigerian policymakers think formal re-engagement with the IMF
    unlikely, even undesirable, until after the 2003 elections.

    --------------------------------------------- --------------
    Nigeria's Economy: An IMF Recession or a CBN Non-Oil Boom?
    --------------------------------------------- --------------

    ¶6. The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) and the IMF are using
    very different numbers to describe current economic growth.
    The IMF reported in October that Nigeria's economy will
    shrink by 0.9 percent in 2002 (an increase from an earlier
    projection of negative 2.5 percent growth).  CBN Director of
    Research Dr. Joseph Nnanna claimed IMF and CBN numbers are
    the same on the oil sector, where there is reliable data, but
    his office believes the non-oil sector is growing at the rate
    of 8.8 percent as opposed to the IMF estimate of 5.3 percent.
    Where the IMF sees a recession, the CBN predicts overall
    economic growth of 3.4 percent, the third consecutive year of
    positive GDP per capita growth.  Nnanna discussed statistics
    with the IMF team in mid-October.  The IMF based its
    prediction of agricultural growth (40 percent of GDP) using
    credit data from the banking system.  Nnanna believes bank
    lending to the agricultural sector has always been
    insignificant, and that peasant farmers get over 90 percent
    of their financing from the informal financial institutions,
    including cooperatives.   Nnanna plans an economic survey
    next year which will give a better idea of which numbers are
    most accurate.  There is much more growth in the non-oil,
    non-governmental and informal sectors than people believe, he
    said.

    --------------------------------------------- -------------
    Drop in Foreign Exchanges Reserves -- What Worry?
    --------------------------------------------- -------------

    ¶7. Both Ebi and Nnanna claim critics are wrong in raising
    alarms about the recent 25 percent fall in foreign exchange
    reserves.  They argue reserves of $7.7 billion, representing
    almost seven months of import cover, are healthy, even when
    one considers that reserves stood at U.S. $10.4 at the end of
    ¶2001.  Minister of Finance Adamu Ciroma's semi-annual August
    economic assessment report also noted that the fall in
    reserves had been expected.  Nnanna claims internal documents
    from 2001 envisioned a draw down on reserves, and that the
    initial runs on the Dutch Auction System were part of that
    drain. Nnanna cited Forex reserve levels, the Naira exchange
    rate, and the minimum wage as politically sensitive economic
    indicators.  He believed that reserves have stabilized and
    will remain above the target of six-month import cover.
    "Nigeria is a country with an unusual dependence on imports
    and very volatile foreign exchange earnings," Nnanna
    observed.  "With the Dutch Auction Nigeria can control how
    much of its reserves it sells and is in better shape to deal
    with reserve than it has ever been." Comment:  Falling
    reserves are an easy target for anti-Obasanjo politicians.
    However, up till now, management of foreign exchange has not
    figured as a political issue against the President.  As long
    as reserves stay above the magic six-month import cover,
    management of foreign reserves will not become campaign
    fodder for anti-Obasanjo forces. End comment.

    ------------------------------------
    Resource Allocation: Status Quo Ante
    ------------------------------------

    ¶8. Despite continued wrangling between the National Assembly
    and Presidency over the October legislation designed to
    restore off-shore oil derivation funds to States, vetoed by
    the President last week, Dr. Nnanna believes the issue is not
    only finished, in terms of its effect on the national and
    local economies, it is almost like it never happened.  Nnanna
    claims that Akwa Ibom, Bayelsa, Delta and other coastal
    oil-producing States never lost their 13 percent derivation
    on oil produced offshore, as some Governors claimed.  The
    April 5 decision was not quickly enforced, and the federal
    government passed on the 13 percent (proportion of revenue)
    to the States as always, claiming it was now a loan.
    Oil-producing states suffered the same 40 percent drop in
    revenues that hit all States in the first part of the year
    when the GON's income crashed because of decline in demand,
    the post 9/11 oil market and Nigeria's loss of 20 percent of
    its OPEC quota.

    ¶9.  Nnanna says that blaming the President and the Supreme
    Court decision was probably the astute political thing to do,
    and in fact, may have helped get the legislation approved.
    However, he does not believe the decision affected a major
    change in the economic fortunes of the oil-producing states
    vis-a-vis other states.  The Revenue Mobilization Allocation
    and Fiscal Commission is proposing more changes, including
    reserving derivation funds for local communities in the
    oil-producing areas.  While politically popular in the
    South-South, it is not clear who is empowered to make such
    changes as there may be constitutional challenges to the
    October legislation restoring the status quo ante.  And the
    beat goes on as the States are again suing the Federal
    Government, this time over the 7.5 percent special fund which
    is used for "national priority projects" controlled by the
    Federal government.

    ---------------------------------
    DAS Success -- Ebi Takes Credit
    ---------------------------------

    ¶10.  Four months since the introduction of the Dutch Auction
    foreign exchange system, the parallel market premium has
    stabilized at just under ten percent.  More importantly,
    devaluaton of the Naira (most of which took place right
    before the DAS was introduced) has been slow enough to mute
    most political criticism of the CBN and Obasanjo
    Administration.  This is the first of the old IMF targets
    that the GON met, and Ebi is quite proud of it.  He credits
    the success this time (as compared to two earlier failures of
    the DAS) to several factors.  First, the CBN enjoys much more
    independence from the Ministry of Finance and the President
    than under previous military and civilian governments.
    Secondly, the foreign reserve level was not at a crisis point
    when the DAS was introduced.  Forex reserves were about $500
    million, the equivalent of less than one month of imports the
    last time the DAS was tried and failed.  And perhaps most
    importantly, the political and economic timing was right.
    Introduction came at a time when the system was not stressed,
    making its implementation easy.  The public break with the
    IMF was also a plus, given historical Nigerian antipathy,
    this time the DAS was introduced independently of the IMF.
    Before making the announcement, Ebi only informed the office
    of the Presidency and the IMF.  He claims he purposely did
    not inform the President because he believed this would have
    been viewed as asking permission, and would have lessened the
    perception of CBN independence.

    --------------------------------------------- --------------
    The West African Monetary Zone (WAMZ) and More Missed
    Macroeconomic Targets
    --------------------------------------------- --------------

    ¶11. Despite being freed (at least officially) from its IMF
    obligations, Nigeria still is obligated by treaty to meet
    West African Monetary Zone (WAMZ) convergence targets. The
    criteria for WAMZ members Nigeria, Sierra Leone, Ghana,
    Liberia and the Gambia are:

    --- Single digit inflation stabilizing at not more than 5
    percent by end of 2002;

    --- External reserves sufficient to finance 3 months of
    imports;

    --- Central Bank financing of budget deficit not exceeding
    ten percent of previous year's tax revenue; and

    --  Overall budget deficit not exceeding 4 percent of GDP
    (excluding grants).

    ¶12.  Nigeria's inflation rate continues to remain in double
    digits and while year-to-year rates have dropped to the low
    teens from a high near 20 percent a year ago, the WAMZ
    targets will not be met in the near future.  The budget
    deficit is projected at 4.2 percent of GDP, missing the IMF
    target of 3.0 percent and the more permissive WAMZ target of
    4.0 percent.  Nnanna thinks the GON will have a tough time
    meeting the ten percent financing limit because the 1958
    Central Bank of Nigeria Act ceiling of 12.5 percent has
    become the de facto minimum as well.  External reserves,
    which currently stand at 6.8 months of import cover, is the
    only WAMZ benchmark met.

    ¶13.  According to the plan, by January 2003, all five WAMZ
    member countries were to have met the above convergence
    criteria  and on New Year's Day, 2003 the new WAMZ joint
    currency would be introduced.  This would be English-speaking
    West Africa's answer to the French-speaking CFA and would
    become a single ECOWAS currency by 2004.  Nnanna and others
    at the CBN are working with counterparts from WAMZ countries
    to prepare for the new currency even though only the Gambia
    has come close to meeting convergence criteria and none of
    the political groundwork has been laid to prepare the
    business or larger Nigerian community for a unified currency.
    Nnanna admitted that the new currency will obviously be
    delayed but that when the right time comes Obasanjo, who
    first proposed the common currency with former Ghanaian
    President Jerry Rawlings, will provide the political muscle
    necessary to implement the change.

    --------------------------------------------- -----------
    CBN Won't Enforce New Interest Rate Cap
    --------------------------------------------- -----------

    ¶14.  Contrary to perceptions in the banking community
    (reftel), the CBN will not monitor enforcement of the
    voluntary interest rate cap of four percent over the Minimum
    Rediscount Rate (MRR). Ebi claims the CBN is not obligated to
    enforce the interest rate cap, criticizing it as
    expansionary.  "Anything that would lead to greater liquidity
    would be one more problem the CBN would have to mop up," Ebi
    claimed.  Interest rates, he insisted, are only one factor in
    a bank's determination of cost of lending funds.
    Institutional inefficiency and high rates of default are
    others, perhaps of higher importance.

    JETER

`