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### Viewing cable 02HARARE2427, DISCUSSION WITH UNDP ON POSSIBLE USE OF U.S. WHEAT

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
02HARARE2427 | 2002-11-07 05:06 | 2011-08-24 16:30 | UNCLASSIFIED | Embassy Harare

`

    This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

` `

    UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 HARARE 002427

    SIPDIS

    STATE FOR AF, AS KANSTEINER AND PDAS BELLAMY AND JIM DUNLAP;
    AF/S FOR DELISI AND RAYNOR;
    NSC FOR SENIOR DIRECTOR FRAZER
    USAID FOR ADMINISTRATOR NATSIOS;
    AFR FOR AA NEWMAN, MARJORIE COPSON, AND KAREN POE;
    DCHAA FOR ROGER WINTER;
    DCHAA/FFP FOR LAUREN LANDIS, LESLIE PETERSON, DALE SKORIC,
    AND JOHN BRAUSE;
    USDA FOR MARY CHAMBLISS;
    ROME FOR FODAG, AMBASSADOR TONY HALL AND TIM LAVELLE;
    PRETORIA FOR FCS RICK HELM AND AID PAT DISKIN

    E.O. 12958: N/A
    TAGS: EAGR EAID ETRD ZI
    SUBJECT: DISCUSSION WITH UNDP ON POSSIBLE USE OF U.S. WHEAT
    IN ADDRESSING HUMANITARIAN FOOD CRISIS

    ¶1.  Summary. Charge met with UNDP Resident Representative
    Victor Angelo on November 4 to review recent developments in
    the humanitarian food crisis in Zimbabwe.  Angelo was
    particularly interested in discussing a possible donation of
    U.S. wheat/wheat flour to the World Food Program (WFP), which
    would in turn monetize this commodity and thereby involve the
    private sector in helping to address the food crisis, at
    least in the urban context.  The discussion centered on
    possible complications, policy considerations (positive as
    well as negative), and logistical issues.  While nothing
    concrete was proffered, nor committed to, by either side, it
    is our view that provision of U.S. wheat/wheat flour could
    yield important benefits, both programatically and
    policy-wise.  We request that Washington examine the
    feasibility of such an intervention and look into the
    availability of wheat/wheat flour that could be donated to
    WFP for monetization.  End Summary.

    -------------
    The Situation
    -------------

    ¶2.  Angelo underlined that the lack of food in rural areas
    remains the principal focus of the UN's Consolidated Appeal
    for Zimbabwe (CAP).  However, there is also a growing food
    crisis in the cities that is projected to put 850,000 persons
    at risk, and possibly more if the ongoing rural to urban
    migration expands.  Certain commodity staples, such as maize
    meal, are increasingly unavailable, and potential substitute
    commodities are simply too expensive for the poorest, most
    food-vulnerable urban population to buy.  In the past, bread
    was the principal alternative to maize meal, but it too is
    increasingly in shortage due to dwindling wheat/wheat flour
    stocks and looks to remain so for the foreseeable future.
    The reasons for this are manifold.

    ¶3.  In an average year, Zimbabwe produces approximately
    300,000 metric tons (MT) of wheat against consumption needs
    of 400,000 MT.  The difference is normally covered by imports
    of approximately 100,000 MT of hard wheat, which is required
    for blending purposes with softer local wheat varieties.
    Virtually all of Zimbabwe's domestic wheat production has
    traditionally come from commercial farms, much of it as
    irrigated winter wheat.  Disruption of the commercial farming
    sector by President Mugabe's purported "land reform" has
    seriously damaged this production cycle.  While there is not
    yet an accurate figure for how much winter wheat will be
    harvested from the past winter's crop (by the end of
    November), the Food and Agriculture Organization is
    projecting about 100,000 MT total for the year, leaving a
    shortfall of 250,000 MT, taking into account planned imports
    of hard wheat.

    ¶4.  At this point, there is no prospect that the GOZ's Grain
    Marketing Board (GMB), the parastatal that monopolizes both
    the import of cereals and the purchase of local cereal crops,
    will be able to cover this shortfall.  A critical lack of
    forex has thus far hampered GMB attempts to purchase enough
    maize to cover the massive shortage of that commodity; in
    this context, sourcing of sufficient wheat to meet normal
    demand appears highly unlikely.  It is a fact, however, that
    demand has not fallen.  In urban areas the demand for bread
    has increased as a substitute for unobtainable maize meal at
    a time when the supply of wheat/wheat flour is actually
    diminishing.  The results are predictable.

    ¶5.  The GOZ's attempts to impose a fixed sales price for a
    basic loaf of bread, as well as a fixed price at which
    millers and bakers purchase the wheat to produce bread, have
    floundered.  The fixed profit margin between purchase price
    of flour and the sale price of bread has become nonsensical
    as the exchange rate of the Zimbabwe dollar has plunged,
    increasing the cost of imported inputs.  Many domestic inputs
    have also risen.  As a result, millers and bakers complain
    that they can hardly produce basic loaves of bread without a
    loss, if the bread is sold at the mandated price.

    ¶6.  This has led to a number of defensive market strategies,
    including selling bread at double or more the set price,
    easily accomplished in an environment where product shortage
    dominates.  Millers have also reportedly used the inadequate
    supply of wheat allotted them by the GMB to mill cake flour,
    which is used to produce premium breads, bread rolls, and
    other products that are non-price controlled and offer a
    higher profit margin.  Bakers add onion flakes to dough or
    prepare special crusts, declare the product a specialty item,
    and thereby also sidestep GOZ controls.  The end result are
    products that are priced beyond the reach of the poorest and
    most food vulnerable segment of the urban population.

    ¶7.  Aware of this problem, the GOZ has reacted in its usual
    ham-handed statist manner.  November 5 newspapers published
    statements by Ministry of Industry and International Trade
    Permanent Secretary Comberbach ordering millers to desist
    from milling cake flour and producing higher-priced products
    until wheat supplies return to normal.  This begs the
    question of when this might occur.  There is little room for
    optimism that next year's winter wheat crop will reach past
    levels, given the continuing destruction of the commercial
    farming sector.  It is also implausible that the GOZ will
    generate sufficient forex reserves to source future wheat
    purchases on international markets, given the concomitant
    reduction in the production of tobacco and other cash crops.
    In sum, all government directives and decrees aside,
    Zimbabwe's urban poor are about to receive a painful,
    first-hand Macroeconomics 101 lesson on the law of supply and
    demand.

    ------------------------------
    The Solution and the Mechanism
    ------------------------------

    ¶8.  Angelo and DCM strategized over how this problem might be
    overcome, at least until next year's maize crop is harvested
    and hopefully provides some relief countrywide, assuming
    normal rains and rebounding communal maize production.
    Angelo said that the provision of wheat to the private sector
    would be the ideal solution, since it has the advantage of
    keeping the private sector in the urban food game (and the
    GOZ out of it) and limits the need for the UN or others to
    establish elaborate targeting, distribution, and monitoring
    mechanisms in urban areas.  It is obvious, however, that the
    GOZ-imposed prices for wheat and bread, and the diminished
    purchasing power of the poorest urban consumers, would
    require some degree of subsidy if such an approach were to be
    viable.  Otherwise, millers and bakers would be
    unwilling/unable to import wheat/wheat flour at world market
    prices because the penury of their customers would mean that
    there would be no market (or profit margin) for their end
    product.

    ¶9.  The best solution would be a delivery of subsidized wheat
    that would sidestep GOZ control and go directly to the
    private sector, to permit the production of a sufficient
    quantity of bread that could be sold at a price that the
    urban poor can afford.  Angelo proposed the following
    mechanism as a possible option.  The USG would provide on a
    grant basis a sufficient quantity (to be determined) of wheat
    flour to WFP, which would in turn monetize this commodity
    through direct sale to millers/bakers at the current fixed
    price under terms that would commit the millers/bakes to
    produce standard loaves of bread at a price affordable by the
    urban poor, as in the past.  The WFP would obtain from the
    GMB import permits (and could do so, Angelo opined) for the
    wheat, but at no time would the GMB or any other GOZ entity
    take possession of the product or control of the process.
    (There is precedent for this, since in the past the GMB
    granted import licenses directly to millers/bakers when the
    private sector was able to access sufficient forex to finance
    such imports.)  Angelo said that the WFP could use the
    proceeds from the monetization in various way that would
    support the CAP: financing unfunded supplemental school
    feeding programming; paying for unfunded distribution of
    medicines procured for WHO by the UK and the EU; financing
    unfunded rural Food-for-Work programs and similar beneficiary
    empowerment initiatives; or financing recurrent WFP costs
    associated with humanitarian food distribution in rural
    areas.  WFP would provide to the USG all accounting required
    to justify the use of funds earned from monetization.

    ---------------
    Policy Benefits
    ---------------

    ¶10.  Angelo and DCM next discussed the benefits of such an
    approach, as opposed to the drawbacks.

    -- There would be no GOZ or GMB control over the process,
    other than granting import licenses.
    -- There would be less pressure on maize supplies to rural
    areas from increased substitution of bread products for urban
    consumers.
    -- The program would bring the beleaguered private sector
    into the humanitarian program, long a goal of the CAP and
    bilateral donors.
    -- Because of private sector and market involvement, there
    would be no labor-intensive need for WFP to organize
    distribution and oversight mechanisms.
    -- The affordability of the bread end-product would be
    self-targeting in that it would keep this staple commodity
    available to the urban poor, preventing politicization of the
    initiative.
    -- The fixed profit margin between GOZ-prescribed wheat
    prices and the set price of bread would prevent bakers from
    making large windfall profits.  (Indeed, lack of
    profitability at current set prices might be the real issue.)
    -- This program would balance the food need equation between
    predominantly ZANU-PF controlled rural areas, until now the
    sole beneficiaries of humanitarian feeding, and the
    increasingly needy and predominantly pro-opposition urban
    areas.
    -- There would no complicating biotech issues.
    -- The proceeds from monetization would help provide local
    currency for UN humanitarian program costs.
    -- The introduction of wheat/wheat flour would not cause
    meaningful market distortions in an environment of massive
    shortage and the extant GMB monopoly over purchase and
    distribution of locally produced wheat stocks.
    -- (for the USG) WFP management of the monetization would
    relieve the USG of labor-intensive management and oversight
    of a bilateral monetization program.

    -------------------------------
    Drawbacks and Issues Unresolved
    -------------------------------

    ¶11.  There are also a number of potential negatives to such
    an approach, although Angelo and DCM agreed that most of
    these can be overcome with some creative thinking.

    -- The program would support GOZ subsidies and fixed food
    prices that are not determined by sound market principles.
    (In the current economic meltdown and in the context of
    unrealistic GOZ economic policies, including exchange rates,
    some level of subsidy must be factored in if any program is
    to function.  The conditions for a freely functioning market
    do not exist at the present, and it would be necessary to
    approach this as a mixed market/humanitarian intervention and
    view it in the perspective of ongoing rural feeding programs,
    many of which are basic food giveaways.
    -- Selection of which millers/bakers to participate must be
    based on past performance, capabilities rather than political
    connections, and willingness to bake basic loaves rather than
    more profitable products.  This would require careful UN
    oversight.
    -- Potential for "black market" abuses in urban areas would
    need to be monitored.
    -- The availability of cheaper food in cities might serve as
    a magnet to starving rural populations, swelling the number
    of those moving toward the cities.  (This is already
    occurring as we write, cheap and plentiful bread or not.)
    -- The quantity of wheat/wheat flour would need to be great
    enough to close significantly the 250,000 MT shortfall.
    -- Logistically, there would be timing of delivery and
    warehousing issues.
    -- Logistically, a large influx of wheat flour would put this
    commodity in competition with maize for already overtaxed
    port, rail, and trucking facilities.

    ---------------
    Recommendations
    ---------------

    ¶12.  We emphasize that no commitments were made nor implied
    in the meeting, which is best characterized as a
    brainstorming session.  Angelo stated, however, that he
    believes it feasible for the UN to undertake a program along
    the lines discussed above if the USG is able to provide wheat
    or wheat flour.  The availability of this commodity under the
    Emerson Trust -- and competing needs in Afghanistan, the Horn
    of Africa, and elsewhere -- will obviously play a determining
    factor.  The Mission recommends that Washington carefully
    examine the admittedly rough-hewn proposal above in terms of
    policy and practicality.  If sufficient wheat/wheat flour are
    available, we believe that such a program -- or one that
    follows a similar script -- could help fulfill Zimbabwe's
    humanitarian food needs while simultaneously addressing USG
    policy concerns.

    SULLIVAN

`