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### Viewing cable 03HARARE1534, GOZ ISSUES APPEAL FOR HUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCE

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
03HARARE1534 | 2003-07-30 07:19 | 2011-08-24 16:30 | UNCLASSIFIED | Embassy Harare

`

    This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

` `

    UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 05 HARARE 001534

    SIPDIS

    AID FOR DCHA/FFP LANDIS, CRUMBLY, MUTAMBA,
    PETERSEN
    DCHA/OFDA FOR PRATT, BARTON, MENGHETTI, BORNS,
    HALMRAST-SANCHEZ, MCCONNELL
    AFR/SA FOR COPSON, FORT, BAKER, MACNAIRN
    STATE/AF FOR RAYNOR, DELISI
    PRETORIA FOR DIJKERMAN, HELM, DISKIN, HALE
    NAIROBI FOR DEPREZ, RILEY
    LILONGWE FOR RUBEY, SINK
    LUSAKA FOR GUNTHER, NIELSON
    MAPUTO FOR POLAND, BLISS
    MASERU FOR AMB LOFTIS
    MBABANE FOR KENNA
    GABORONE FOR THOMAS, MULLINS AND DORMAN
    ROME FOR FODAG FOR LAVELLE, DAVIS

    E.O. 12958: N/A
    TAGS: EAID PREL US ZI
    SUBJECT:  GOZ ISSUES APPEAL FOR HUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCE

    REFS: (A) Harare 01316, (B) Pretoria 03546; (C) Harare
    01345

    -------
    SUMMARY
    -------
    ¶1.  The Government of Zimbabwe (GOZ) has finally issued a
    formal request for humanitarian assistance to the United
    Nations (UN).  The primary request is for additional (not
    in the pipeline) food aid in the amount of 600,000 MT of
    maize to fill what the GOZ perceives to be the "food
    gap," the difference between anticipated national
    requirements and the national harvest and carryover
    stocks.  The amount of food aid the GOZ has requested is
    considerably more than that requested in the WFP's
    appeal.  Additional food-related requirements include
    supplementary and therapeutic feeding of malnourished
    children.  Agricultural-related requests include inputs
    for agricultural recovery and livestock rehabilitation,
    and irrigation infrastructure and rehabilitation.  On the
    health side, HIV/AIDS is awarded a high priority.  Within
    this sector, the GOZ is appealing for assistance for
    vaccines; drugs to combat HIV/AIDS and opportunistic
    infections, malaria, TB and other diseases; and water and
    sanitation.  Aside from some minimal support for
    livestock recovery and seeds, the only GOZ contribution
    to its own appeal would be some 284,000 Metric Tons (MT)
    of "opening stocks" and a yet to be fully budgeted amount
    of funds to continue its woefully inadequate "Public
    Works" (Cash-for-Work) program.  In a letter from the
    Ministry of Finance, the GOZ requests donors to fill the
    entire food gap, in conjunction with commercial imports.
    Humanitarian assistance for all other sectors is clearly
    expected to come from the international donor community.
    We believe the GOZ can and should be responsible for some
    of the 600,000 MT of cereal needs, either through using
    its own scarce but fungible forex resources, or by
    allowing well-heeled elements in the private sector to
    participate.   Post provides current plans and
    recommendations for the USG response to this appeal.

    -----------------------
    GOZ ISSUES APPEAL FOR
    HUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCE
    -----------------------

    ¶2.  On 21 July 2003, the Minister of Finance and Economic
    Development presented the UN with the long-awaited formal
    GOZ appeal for humanitarian assistance.  The World Food
    Program (WFP) had already issued an Emergency Operation
    appeal (EMOP) for food aid from July 2003 through June
    2004 (Reftel B).  The UN Consolidated Appeal (CAP) for
    emergency humanitarian assistance has been ready for
    weeks awaiting a formal GOZ request.  In the meantime,
    donors and non-governmental organizations (NGOs) have
    been attempting to plan based on "unofficial working
    estimates" to address what they perceive as a
    deteriorating humanitarian situation in country.

    ------------------
    IT'S STILL DROUGHT
    ------------------

    ¶3.  The GOZ Appeal acknowledges that Zimbabwe is facing a
    severe crisis and that macroeconomic "challenges," lack
    of foreign exchange, a balance of payments deficit and
    high levels of inflation are factors contributing to this
    crisis.  It continues to maintain, however, that the
    government's agrarian land reform program bears no
    culpability for the country's continuing economic
    collapse and, to the contrary, remains its major strategy
    for poverty reduction in Zimbabwe.

    ¶4.  More than three pages of the 20-page appeal are
    devoted to an exegesis of the series of droughts that
    Zimbabwe has experienced since 1991.  The document places
    drought, weather, and ill-timed and unpredictable rains
    front and center as the prime cause of Zimbabwe's
    troubles.  While three years of drought have eroded
    traditional coping mechanisms and while drought certainly
    played a part in last year's crisis, drought is chronic
    in certain regions of Zimbabwe and, alone, has never
    brought the country to its knees.  It is certainly not
    the sole or even primary cause of the situation in which
    Zimbabwe finds itself currently, as corroborated by the
    significantly improved harvests and food security
    conditions in many of the country's neighbors this year.

    ---------------------------
    HIV/AIDS GAINS CENTER STAGE
    ---------------------------

    ¶5.  For the first time, the GOZ appeal places HIV/AIDS
    center stage.  Mitigation of the impact of HIV/AIDS is
    given high priority and its invasive and debilitating
    effects on all areas and populations in Zimbabwe are
    acknowledged.  In a country where more than 30 percent of
    the sexually active adult population is infected by the
    disease, HIV/AIDS compounds the current humanitarian
    crisis at every level.  HIV/AIDS not only exacerbates
    food insecurity and decimates valuable human resources
    but is, in turn, complicated and fed by the malnutrition
    and opportunistic diseases that are byproducts of food
    insecurity.  Accordingly, this new prominence for
    HIV/AIDS in the national agenda is welcome.

    ------------
    THE FOOD GAP
    ------------

    ¶6. The GOZ blames the delay in the release of its appeal
    on trying to come up with an accurate maize crop
    estimate.  In arriving at its estimate, the government
    has "creatively" averaged the figures from recent
    Government crop forecast assessments, the ZIMVAC and the
    FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission (CFSAM)
    to arrive at an estimated maize crop of 900,000 MT.
    [Note:  Although similar large shortages exist for wheat,
    there is no mention of wheat balances or requirements
    throughout the entire document.  End Note.]  Against an
    estimated national maize requirement of roughly 1.9
    million MT, less estimated "opening" stocks of 284,000 MT
    (presumably including some combination of outstanding
    contracted government imports and on-going purchases of
    the domestic crop), the resulting shortfall is 710,000
    MT.  Correctly noting an estimated 120,000 MT in WFP's
    food aid pipeline (Reftel B), the Appeal, therefore,
    identifies a 600,000 MT food gap that it requests to be
    filled entirely by the international donor community.

    ¶7. The only evident GOZ contribution would be the 284,000
    MT of planned imports/local purchases noted above that
    have yet to materialize, and an as yet not fully budgeted
    ZW$ 28 billion to continue its heavily criticized ZW$ 42
    billion "Publics Works" (Cash-for-Work) program over the
    coming year, with the balance ZW$14 billion being met "by
    the donor community and the private sector."  [Note:
    While the official exchange rate remains ZWD 824:USD 1,
    the parallel market rate is now 3,350:1.  End Note.]

    -------------------
    NON-FOOD ASSISTANCE
    REQUESTED BY GOZ
    -------------------

    ¶8.  The GOZ Appeal requests assistance in a number of non-
    food sectors, too.  For agriculture, the appeal requests
    support for agricultural recovery to promote "food
    sufficiency through increased production in communal,
    resettlement and commercial farming areas," pointedly
    noting prior donor discrimination in excluding the newly
    resettled farmers from international relief assistance to
    date.  The need for livestock inputs (ZW$ 120 billion),
    seeds and fertilizers for cereal and oil crops (ZW$ 758
    billion) is highlighted.   The GOZ makes a sweeping, but
    vague commitment to "fund 50 percent for the cereals,
    beef and small stock, and 30 percent of oil seeds, crops
    and horticulture."  In addition, the appeal includes a
    request for an estimated ZW$ 6.65 billion for short-,
    medium- and long-term irrigation infrastructure
    rehabilitation and development.

    ¶9. Additional areas in which assistance is requested are:
    -- Malnutrition - Therapeutic and supplementary feeding,
    including vitamin supplements, in 31 districts in which
    global acute malnutrition exceeds 5 percent and/or severe
    acute malnutrition exceeds 2 percent, according to the
    recent UNICEF National Nutritional Survey results.  No
    beneficiary numbers or estimated dollar cost is indicated
    for this category of assistance.
    -- Health - Support for health facilities and initiatives
    in the form of equipment, drugs, vaccines, insecticides
    (anti-malarial) and gases that the government cannot
    import due to foreign currency constraints.  [Note: A
    long shopping list is attached to the appeal as an annex,
    including drugs for HIV/AIDS, malaria, TB and other
    diseases.]  While estimated caseloads and quantities are
    provided, no dollar costs are presented for these
    requirements either.
    -- Water and Sanitation - Rehabilitation of water
    sources, submerged boreholes and sanitary facilities
    damaged during recent heavy rains or drought as well as
    installation of water services in previously non-serviced
    areas, i.e., resettlement areas, in six provinces
    (Masvingo, Midlands, Matabeleland South and North,
    Manicaland and Mashonaland Central).  Again, while
    assistance requirements are specified, no estimated
    dollar costs are included for this category of
    assistance.

    ---------------------
    USG FOOD AID RESPONSE
    ---------------------

    ¶9.  Generally, the GOZ Appeal confirms what we have known
    for some time via other recent assessments (see Reftels).
    Despite the consensus that this year's maize harvest is
    better than last year's, the overall food security
    situation in Zimbabwe will not improve significantly over
    the current marketing year.  Continued economic collapse,
    increased scarcity of food commodities and concomitant
    higher prices and profiteering will largely negate most
    benefits of the increased harvest.  In particular, the
    situation in urban areas is expected to deteriorate.  In
    the appeal, the GOZ has at least tacitly acknowledged its
    inability to import much, if any, maize in the coming
    year.  Zimbabwe's private sector has the financial
    wherewithal to fill the gap if the GOZ cannot, and the
    private sector has the motivation as the Grain Marketing
    Board farm gate price for maize has risen dramatically if
    belatedly to stimulate production and is approaching the
    regional price of maize, calculated at the parallel rate,
    which makes private sector involvement economically
    feasible.  Unless the current policy context is changed,
    however, there will be no private sector imports.  This
    would increasingly leave both urban and rural areas with
    food shortages, particularly as the hungry season
    (December 2003 - April 2004) progresses.

    ¶10.  As a result, post suggests that the USG will need to
    provide food aid to Zimbabwe at a level comparable to
    that of last year, and possibly higher.  WFP's new EMOP
    includes plans to distribute approximately 450,000 MTs in
    Zimbabwe between July 2003 and June 2004, of which about
    110,000 MTs will be covered by carryover commodities from
    its previous EMOP, leaving "new" donations of 300,000
    plus MT.  We would expect the USG, through USAID/DCHA's
    Office of Food for Peace, to provide between 40 and 50
    percent of the net additional WFP requirements.  The C-
    SAFE program, which is fully funded by USAID, also plans
    to distribute an additional 100,000 MTs in rural areas
    during this period through targeted free distributions,
    food-for-work programs and supplementary feeding.
    Further, it is anticipated that C-SAFE's Market
    Intervention Pilot Program in Bulawayo will provide
    20,000 MTs of sorghum through January 2004.  Depending on
    the success of this pilot program, tonnage may be
    increased if the program continues beyond January 2004
    and expands into other urban areas.

    -------------------------
    USG NON-FOOD AID RESPONSE
    -------------------------

    ¶11. The USG, through USAID/DCHA's Office for Foreign
    Disaster Assistance (OFDA), is concentrating its response
    to the humanitarian crisis in Zimbabwe in the following
    sectors:
    -- emergency nutrition interventions through therapeutic
    and supplementary feeding programs targeted at children
    under five and certain hotspots of persistently high
    malnutrition rates;
    -- agricultural inputs, particularly seeds and technical
    support, for subsistence farming in communal areas to
    foster self-sufficiency;
    -- drip irrigation projects in areas of chronic drought
    and in support of the food security needs of certain
    vulnerable populations such as HIV/AIDs-affected
    households and orphan- and elderly-headed households;
    -- support to Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs),
    especially ex-commercial farm workers;
    -- rehabilitation of existing water and sanitation
    infrastructures in areas suffering most from the residual
    effects of drought;
    -- support for monitoring the humanitarian response,
    principally through non-governmental agencies, and
    including support for periodic U.N.-supported food
    security and nutrition surveys and needs assessments; and
    -- UN coordination and information dissemination for the
    greater humanitarian response through support to its
    Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs
    (OCHA).
    To date, approximately US$ 6.2 million of OFDA funds have
    been programmed in FY03 in support of UN and NGO
    initiatives in these areas, with a similar amount under
    consideration for early FY04.

    ----------------
    MISSION COMMENTS
    ----------------

    ¶12. While it is essential to provide enough resources to
    meet the humanitarian needs of the most vulnerable, it is
    also important that donors avoid giving the impression
    that they are willing to meet the entire food gap in
    Zimbabwe, and/or some of the other non-food needs listed
    in the appeal document (even for the more credible
    requests included therein).  This would seriously
    undermine our joint on-going efforts to pressure the GOZ
    to effect the policy reforms required to facilitate a
    more comprehensive and robust humanitarian response and a
    speedier transition to recovery (see Reftel C).

    ¶13. The Mission believes that the set of USG food and non-
    food assistance activities outlined above satisfactorily
    meets these critical minimal relief requirements.  In
    combination with known other donor plans for humanitarian
    assistance to Zimbabwe over the current marketing year
    (especially the EU and DfID), this assistance should
    suffice in meeting this aim, at least through the end of
    the current CY (December 2003).  Post appreciates DCHA's
    continuing support in meeting these significant food and
    non-food aid requirements.

    ¶14. The GOZ Appeal confirms, at least implicitly,
    government's current "bankrupt" status (although we note
    that they have found enough forex recently to purchase
    new luxury vehicles for senior GOZ officials), and its
    purported inability to respond to its citizens'
    continuing desperate plight (unlike last year, when
    government was able to muster considerable resources of
    its own for food imports).  For this reason, we believe
    that the prospect for GOZ movement on relevant policy
    issues is better than it has been in the past.  We
    believe that UN/donor pressure can best be exerted by
    limited donor response to the amount of the WFP appeal,
    thereby presenting the GOZ with clear options - use its
    own limited forex to import for the GMB, or permit the
    private sector to re-enter the grain import sector.  The
    Mission would like to use the current opportunity to
    press the dialogue on GOZ policy reform to the fullest
    extent possible (ref C).  Accordingly, the Mission does
    not wish to "broadcast" these considerable USG assistance
    plans at this time.  Post will appreciate Washington's
    continued cooperation with this request.  Sullivan

`