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### Viewing cable 03ZAGREB799, DRUZHBADRIA AND CPOT PIPELINES -- CROATIA MOVING

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
03ZAGREB799 | 2003-04-11 08:15 | 2011-08-25 00:00 | UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY | Embassy Zagreb

`

    This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

` `

    UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 05 ZAGREB 000799

    SIPDIS

    SENSITIVE

    STATE FOR EB/CBED
    STATE PASS OPIC AND TDA

    E.O. 12958: N/A
    TAGS: ECON ENRG EPET SENV ENRG EPET SENV ENRG EPET SENV ENRG EPET SENV ENRG EPET SENV HR HRECON
    SUBJECT: DRUZHBADRIA AND CPOT PIPELINES -- CROATIA MOVING
    FORWARD BUT SOME QUESTIONS RAISED

                           UNCLASSIFIED

    PAGE 03        ZAGREB  00799  01 OF 05  110814Z
    SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED -- PLEASE HANDLE ACCORDINGLY.

    SUMMARY
    -------

    ¶1.  (SBU) THE DRUZHBADRIA PIPELINE PROJECT IS ONE POSSIBLE
    ROUTE TO BRING RUSSIAN OIL TO WESTERN MARKETS, SOMETHING
    WHICH WOULD ENHANCE GLOBAL ENERGY SECURITY BY INCREASING
    DIVERSIFICATION OF OIL SUPPLIES.  THE CROATIAN PRESS HAS
    SOUGHT TO PORTRAY CROATIA AS A NEW PLAYER IN WORLD OIL
    POLITICS.  HOWEVER, ACTUAL CROATIAN INFLUENCE ON THE SUCCESS
    OF THE PROJECT, AND THE UPFRONT INVESTMENT AND THUS RISK
    CROATIA IS WILLING TO TAKE ON, ARE RELATIVELY SMALL.
    ENVIRONMENTAL OPPOSITION TO THE PIPELINE HAS ARISEN, AND THE
    GOVERNMENT'S WILLINGNESS TO MAKE MORE-THAN-BARE-MINIMUM
    INVESTMENTS IN THE PROJECT COULD WEAKEN IF IT DOES NOT
    RECEIVE CLEAR COMMITMENTS FROM SUPPLIERS AND BUYERS.  SIMILAR
    ISSUES SURROUND THE CPOT (CONSTANTA-PANCEVO-OMISALJ-TRIESTE)
    BOSPORUS BYPASS PIPELINE PROJECT, AS WELL AS CONCERN OVER THE
    LOSS OF SERBIAN AND BOSNIAN EXPORT MARKETS.  END SUMMARY.

    THE DRUZHBADRIA PROJECT
    -----------------------

    ¶2.  (SBU) ON DECEMBER 16, REPRESENTATIVES OF THE SIX
    COUNTRIES INVOLVED IN THE DRUZHBADRIA OIL PIPELINE PROJECT
    SIGNED AN AGREEMENT ON COOPERATION ON IMPLEMENTATION OF THE
    PROJECT OF INTEGRATION OF THE "DRUZHBA" AND "ADRIA" OIL
    PIPELINES IN ZAGREB.  THE AGREEMENT WAS THE CULMINATION OF
    FIVE YEARS OF NEGOTIATIONS, BUT IMPORTANT ISSUES REMAIN TO BE
    WORKED OUT BEFORE ANY OIL ACTUALLY FLOWS FROM RUSSIAN OIL
                           UNCLASSIFIED

    PAGE 04        ZAGREB  00799  01 OF 05  110814Z
    FIELDS, THROUGH UKRAINE, BELARUS, SLOVAKIA AND HUNGARY TO THE
    TERMINUS OF THE DRUZHBA PIPELINE, THEN INTO THE ADRIA
    PIPELINE TO THE CROATIAN PORT OF OMISALJ.

    ¶3.  (U) CURRENTLY JANAF, THE CROATIAN STATE-OWNED OIL
    PIPELINE COMPANY, RECEIVES OIL AT THE DEEP-WATER PORT OF
    OMISALJ, ON THE NORTHERN CROATIAN ADRIATIC COAST, LESS THAN A
    HUNDRED MILES FROM TRIESTE.  SOME OIL GOES TO THE RIJEKA
    REFINERY, AND THE REST IS PUMPED VIA PIPELINE OVER THE GORSKI
    KOTAR MOUNTAINS TO A REFINERY IN SISAK (SOUTH OF ZAGREB),
    THEN EASTWARDS TOWARDS SERBIA AND NORTHWARD TOWARDS HUNGARY.

    ¶4.  (U) IN ORDER FOR CROATIA TO PARTICIPATE IN THE PLAN TO
    CREATE A NEW ROUTE FOR THE EXPORT OF RUSSIAN CRUDE TO WESTERN
    EUROPE AND THE U.S., IT WILL NEED TO INSTALL PUMPS CAPABLE OF
    PUMPING OIL IN BOTH DIRECTIONS.  THE INITIAL INVESTMENT
    REQUIRED TO ENABLE JANAF TO ACCOMPLISH THE FIRST-PHASE GOAL
    OF BEING ABLE TO EXPORT FIVE MILLION TONS OF OIL A YEAR COULD
    BE AS LITTLE AS $20 MILLION.  INVESTMENTS OF UP TO $70 TO 80
    MILLION WOULD BE NEEDED TO REALIZE THE FINAL OUTPUT GOAL OF
    15 MILLION TONS PER YEAR.  MUCH OF THE NEW INVESTMENT IS FOR
    STRENGTHENING ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION MEASURES.

                           UNCLASSIFIED

                               UNCLASSIFIED     PTQ8450

    PAGE 01        ZAGREB  00799  02 OF 05  110814Z
    ACTION EB-00

    INFO  LOG-00   NP-00    AGRE-00  AID-00   CEA-01   CIAE-00  CTME-00
          INL-00   DINT-00  DODE-00  ITCE-00  DOTE-00  WHA-00   SRPP-00
          EXME-00  EUR-00   E-00     FAAE-00  FBIE-00  UTED-00  VC-00
          FRB-00   H-01     TEDE-00  INR-00   IO-00    ITC-01   LAB-01
          L-00     VCE-00   AC-01    NSAE-00  NSCE-00  NSF-01   OES-00
          OIC-02   OMB-02   OPIC-01  PC-01    PM-00    PRS-00   ACE-00
          SP-00    SSO-00   SS-00    STR-00   TEST-00  T-00     USIE-00
          EPAE-00  PMB-00   PRM-00   DRL-01   G-00     NFAT-00  SAS-00
          SWCI-00    /013W
                      ------------------5427E6  110815Z /38
    R 110815Z APR 03
    FM AMEMBASSY ZAGREB
    TO SECSTATE WASHDC 9929
    INFO AMEMBASSY ALMATY
    AMEMBASSY ASHGABAT
    AMEMBASSY ATHENS
    AMEMBASSY BELGRADE
    AMEMBASSY BISHKEK
    AMEMBASSY BRATISLAVA
    AMEMBASSY BRUSSELS
    AMEMBASSY BUCHAREST
    AMEMBASSY BUDAPEST
    AMEMBASSY CARACAS
    AMEMBASSY CHISINAU
    AMEMBASSY KIEV
    AMEMBASSY LJUBLJANA
    AMEMBASSY LONDON
                           UNCLASSIFIED

    PAGE 02        ZAGREB  00799  02 OF 05  110814Z
    AMEMBASSY MINSK
    AMEMBASSY MOSCOW
    AMEMBASSY PARIS
    AMEMBASSY PRAGUE
    AMEMBASSY RIGA
    AMEMBASSY ROME
    AMEMBASSY SKOPJE
    AMEMBASSY SOFIA
    AMEMBASSY TASHKENT
    AMEMBASSY TBILISI
    AMEMBASSY TIRANA
    AMEMBASSY VIENNA
    AMEMBASSY VILNIUS
    AMEMBASSY WARSAW
    AMEMBASSY YEREVAN
    DEPT OF COMMERCE WASHDC
    DEPT OF ENERGY WASHDC
    DEPT OF TREASURY WASHDC

    UNCLAS SECTION 02 OF 05 ZAGREB 000799

    SIPDIS

    SENSITIVE

    STATE FOR EB/CBED
    STATE PASS OPIC AND TDA

    E.O. 12958: N/A
    TAGS: ECON ENRG EPET SENV ENRG EPET SENV ENRG EPET SENV ENRG EPET SENV ENRG EPET SENV HR HRECON
    SUBJECT: DRUZHBADRIA AND CPOT PIPELINES -- CROATIA MOVING
    FORWARD BUT SOME QUESTIONS RAISED

                           UNCLASSIFIED

    PAGE 03        ZAGREB  00799  02 OF 05  110814Z
    ¶5.  (SBU) A RELATIVELY SMALL INVESTMENT IS NEEDED IN THE
    SHORT-TERM BECAUSE JANAF'S FACILITIES ARE WOEFULLY
    UNDERUTILIZED.  KRESIMIR BARANOVIC, HEAD OF DEVELOPMENT
    PROJECTS FOR JANAF SAID MOST OF THE NEAR-TERM INVESTMENTS
    WILL BE FOR REVERSIBLE PUMPS AT THE SISAK REFINERY, SOME
    PUMPS AT OMISALJ FOR LOADING OIL ONTO TANKERS, ADDITIONAL
    STORAGE TANKS AT SISAK, AND SOME PIPING AND CONTROL
    EQUIPMENT.  MUCH OF THIS EQUIPMENT HAS BEEN BOUGHT AND SOME
    DELIVERED.  SOME EXISTING PUMPS ARE SIMPLY BEING REPOSITIONED.

    PIPELINE BRINGS EXISTING PROBLEMS INTO FOCUS
    --------------------------------------------

    ¶6.  (U) SOON AFTER THE SIGNING OF THE DRUZHBADRIA AGREEMENT,
    THE MEDIA AND NGOS PROMINENTLY RAISED ENVIRONMENTAL
    QUESTIONS.  THE "ENVIRONMENTALISTS" BREAK DOWN INTO TWO
    GROUPS -- THOSE WHO SIMPLY WANT TO ENSURE THAT THE GOVERNMENT
    AND JANAF CONDUCT APPROPRIATE STUDIES AND TAKE THE ADEQUATE
    PRECAUTIONS, AND THOSE WHO THINK THAT ANY ADDITIONAL
    ENVIRONMENTAL RISK TO THE CROATIAN COAST IS UNACCEPTABLE.
    CONCERNS CENTERED ON TWO ISSUES -- THE POSSIBILITY OF AN OIL
    SPILL AND THE EFFECT OF DISCHARGES OF LARGE AMOUNTS OF
    BALLAST WATERS, WHICH COULD INTRODUCE NEW AQUATIC INVASIVE
    SPECIES TO THE CROATIAN ADRIATIC COAST.  LOCALS AND OTHERS
    CITED CONCERNS THAT A LARGE SPILL COULD ENDANGER TOURISM,
    WHICH IS BY FAR CROATIA'S BIGGEST FOREIGN CURRENCY EARNER,
    BRINGING IN AN ESTIMATED $4 BILLION IN REVENUE IN 2002.
    MEDIA REPORTS QUOTE THE PRESIDENT OF JANAF AS SAYING REVENUE
    FLOWS FROM THE DRUZHBADRIA PROJECT WOULD BE $30 MILLION PER
    YEAR AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PROJECT, INCREASING TO $80
    MILLION AT FULL CAPACITY.
                           UNCLASSIFIED

    PAGE 04        ZAGREB  00799  02 OF 05  110814Z

    ¶7.  (SBU) THE GOVERNMENT, SOMEWHAT SUCCESSFULLY, HAS REBUTTED
    THE OIL-SPILL ARGUMENT BY NOTING THAT THE INTENSITY OF
    TRAFFIC ENVISIONED UNDER THE DRUZHBADRIA PROJECT -- AT ITS
    PEAK, 80 LARGE (250 THOUSAND PLUS TON ) TANKERS PER YEAR --
    WILL HARDLY CHANGE.  CURRENTLY, ABOUT 50-60 TANKERS A YEAR
    DOCK AT OMISALJ (IN THE PRE-WAR YEARS IT WAS OVER A HUNDRED),
    AND OVER 400 AT TRIESTE.  THE GOVERNMENT'S ARGUMENT IS NOT
    THAT IT IS PERFECTLY SAFE -- AN IMPOSSIBLE ASSURANCE TO GIVE
    -- BUT THAT IT WOULD BE NO MORE DANGEROUS THAN THE CURRENT
    SITUATION.

    ¶8.  (SBU) THE GOVERNMENT IS CURRENTLY WORKING WITH OTHER
    GOVERNMENTS IN THE REGION TO UPGRADE REQUIREMENTS FOR TANKERS
    (E.G., TO REQUIRE THAT TANKERS BE DOUBLE HULLED) AND TO
    ESTABLISH TRAFFIC LANES IN THE ADRIATIC.  (CURRENTLY THERE
    ARE NO TRAFFIC LANES, ACCORDING TO THE MARITIME MINISTRY.
    WHEN WE QUIPPED "THANK GOODNESS THERE ARE NO ICEBERGS IN THE
    ADRIATIC" THE REJOINDER WAS "AH, YES, BUT WE HAVE LOTS OF
    ISLANDS.")

    ¶9.  (SBU) CONTACTS AT THE ENVIRONMENTAL AND MARITIME
    MINISTRIES BELIEVE THAT A SMALL SPILL NEAR OMISALJ, PERHAPS

                           UNCLASSIFIED

                               UNCLASSIFIED     PTQ8454

    PAGE 01        ZAGREB  00799  03 OF 05  110815Z
    ACTION EB-00

    INFO  LOG-00   NP-00    AGRE-00  AID-00   CEA-01   CIAE-00  CTME-00
          INL-00   DINT-00  DODE-00  ITCE-00  DOTE-00  WHA-00   SRPP-00
          EXME-00  EUR-00   E-00     FAAE-00  FBIE-00  UTED-00  VC-00
          FRB-00   H-01     TEDE-00  INR-00   IO-00    ITC-01   LAB-01
          L-00     VCE-00   AC-01    NSAE-00  NSCE-00  NSF-01   OES-00
          OIC-02   OMB-02   OPIC-01  PC-01    PM-00    PRS-00   ACE-00
          SP-00    SSO-00   SS-00    STR-00   TEST-00  T-00     USIE-00
          EPAE-00  PMB-00   PRM-00   DRL-01   G-00     NFAT-00  SAS-00
          SWCI-00    /013W
                      ------------------5427F2  110815Z /38
    R 110815Z APR 03
    FM AMEMBASSY ZAGREB
    TO SECSTATE WASHDC 9930
    INFO AMEMBASSY ALMATY
    AMEMBASSY ASHGABAT
    AMEMBASSY ATHENS
    AMEMBASSY BELGRADE
    AMEMBASSY BISHKEK
    AMEMBASSY BRATISLAVA
    AMEMBASSY BRUSSELS
    AMEMBASSY BUCHAREST
    AMEMBASSY BUDAPEST
    AMEMBASSY CARACAS
    AMEMBASSY CHISINAU
    AMEMBASSY KIEV
    AMEMBASSY LJUBLJANA
    AMEMBASSY LONDON
                           UNCLASSIFIED

    PAGE 02        ZAGREB  00799  03 OF 05  110815Z
    AMEMBASSY MINSK
    AMEMBASSY MOSCOW
    AMEMBASSY PARIS
    AMEMBASSY PRAGUE
    AMEMBASSY RIGA
    AMEMBASSY ROME
    AMEMBASSY SKOPJE
    AMEMBASSY SOFIA
    AMEMBASSY TASHKENT
    AMEMBASSY TBILISI
    AMEMBASSY TIRANA
    AMEMBASSY VIENNA
    AMEMBASSY VILNIUS
    AMEMBASSY WARSAW
    AMEMBASSY YEREVAN
    DEPT OF COMMERCE WASHDC
    DEPT OF ENERGY WASHDC
    DEPT OF TREASURY WASHDC

    UNCLAS SECTION 03 OF 05 ZAGREB 000799

    SIPDIS

    SENSITIVE

    STATE FOR EB/CBED
    STATE PASS OPIC AND TDA

    E.O. 12958: N/A
    TAGS: ECON ENRG EPET SENV ENRG EPET SENV ENRG EPET SENV ENRG EPET SENV ENRG EPET SENV HR HRECON
    SUBJECT: DRUZHBADRIA AND CPOT PIPELINES -- CROATIA MOVING
    FORWARD BUT SOME QUESTIONS RAISED

                           UNCLASSIFIED

    PAGE 03        ZAGREB  00799  03 OF 05  110815Z
    WHILE OFF-LOADING OR LOADING A SHIP, COULD BE EASILY
    CONTAINED BY JANAF'S MODERN EQUIPMENT.  MUCH MORE DIFFICULT
    WOULD BE A SPILL AT OPEN SEA.  IN THAT CASE, THEY CONCEDED,
    CROATIA'S RESOURCES WOULD BE OVERWHELMED, AND THEY WOULD
    REQUIRE SUBSTANTIAL INTERNATIONAL HELP.

    BALLAST WATER PROBLEM
    ---------------------

    ¶10.  (SBU) THE BALLAST WATER PROBLEM IS NEW ONLY IN ITS SCOPE
    AND IN THE ATTENTION IT HAS DRAWN.  CURRENTLY, SHIPS THAT
    TAKE ON CROATIAN EXPORTS ARE DUMPING BALLAST WATER IN UNKNOWN
    LOCATIONS -- THERE ARE NO CONTROLS.  THE QUANTITIES ARE
    PROBABLY SMALL, AND MANY OF THESE SHIPS ARE MOVING BETWEEN
    MEDITERRANEAN PORTS, RATHER THAN BRINGING BALLAST WATERS FROM
    FARTHER AFIELD.  THUS, THE QUESTIONS RAISED OVER THE
    DRUZHBADRIA PIPELINE ARE HIGHLIGHTING A PROBLEM THAT HAS
    EXISTED FOR QUITE A WHILE, IF IN LESS DRASTIC FORM.  IDEALLY,
    BALLAST WATERS SHOULD BE EXCHANGED 200 MILES FROM SHORE --
    WHICH MEANS NOWHERE IN THE ADRIATIC -- AND THERE ARE
    QUESTIONS ABOUT THE WISDOM OF DOING IT IN THE MEDITERRANEAN.
    CROATIA IS LOOKING AT THIS PROBLEM IN THE CONTEXT OF THE
    INTERNATIONAL MARITIME ORGANIZATION (IMO) AND AS PART OF THE
    ADRIATIC UNION INITIATIVE.

    ¶11.  (SBU) IN DECEMBER OF LAST YEAR, JANAF FORMED AN EXPERT
    GROUP TO LOOK AT THE BALLAST WATER PROBLEM, INCLUDING MEMBERS
    FROM RESEARCH AND UNIVERSITY INSTITUTIONS, ACCORDING TO THE
    JANAF WEBSITE.  OUR GOVERNMENT CONTACTS TELL US THIS GROUP
    MET ONCE, THEN DECIDED THAT THE PROBLEM HAD TO BE ADDRESSED
    BY THE GOVERNMENT.  AN INTER-GOVERNMENTAL COMMITTEE WAS
                           UNCLASSIFIED

    PAGE 04        ZAGREB  00799  03 OF 05  110815Z
    FORMED, BUT APPARENTLY HAS YET TO MEET.

    ¶12.  (SBU) ACCORDING TO VARIOUS GOVERNMENT CONTACTS, JANAF
    TECHNICALLY DOES NOT NEED TO DO AN ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT STUDY
    (EIS) FOR THE DRUZHBADRIA PIPELINE, SINCE THE EXISTING
    PIPELINE AND ON- AND OFF-LOADING FACILITIES AT OMISALJ ARE
    ALREADY LICENSED FOR TRANSPORTING UP TO 30 MILLION TONS A
    YEAR.  HOWEVER, GIVEN THE PUBLIC ATTENTION TO THE PIPELINE,
    THE GOVERNMENT DIRECTED JANAF TO DO AN EIS, AT JANAF'S
    EXPENSE.  THE MINISTRY OF ENVIRONMENT BELIEVES THIS WILL TAKE
    ONLY TWO TO THREE MONTHS, PLUS ANOTHER FOUR TO FIVE MONTHS
    FOR PUBLIC COMMENT.  (NOTE: PER THE SCOPE OF WORK OF A
    TDA-FINANCED FEASIBILITY STUDY OF THE CPOT PROJECT -- SEE
    PARA 16 BELOW -- THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A PARTIAL EIS DONE AS
    PART OF THAT STUDY.  WE ARE TRYING TO CLARIFY THE
    RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THESE TWO STUDIES.)

    CROATIA WANTS TO SEE THE MONEY
    ------------------------------

    ¶13.  (SBU) DESPITE THE HOOPLA SURROUNDING THE SIGNING OF THE
    DRUZHBADRIA PROJECT, AND THE FACT THAT THE PRELIMINARY
    INVESTMENT NECESSARY IS GOING FORWARD, IT IS STILL NOT A DONE

                           UNCLASSIFIED

                               UNCLASSIFIED     PTQ8455

    PAGE 01        ZAGREB  00799  04 OF 05  110815Z
    ACTION EB-00

    INFO  LOG-00   NP-00    AGRE-00  AID-00   CEA-01   CIAE-00  CTME-00
          INL-00   DINT-00  DODE-00  ITCE-00  DOTE-00  WHA-00   SRPP-00
          EXME-00  EUR-00   E-00     FAAE-00  FBIE-00  UTED-00  VC-00
          FRB-00   H-01     TEDE-00  INR-00   IO-00    ITC-01   LAB-01
          L-00     VCE-00   AC-01    NSAE-00  NSCE-00  NSF-01   OES-00
          OIC-02   OMB-02   OPIC-01  PC-01    PM-00    PRS-00   ACE-00
          SP-00    SSO-00   SS-00    STR-00   TEST-00  T-00     USIE-00
          EPAE-00  PMB-00   PRM-00   DRL-01   G-00     NFAT-00  SAS-00
          SWCI-00    /013W
                      ------------------542804  110815Z /38
    R 110815Z APR 03
    FM AMEMBASSY ZAGREB
    TO SECSTATE WASHDC 9931
    INFO AMEMBASSY ALMATY
    AMEMBASSY ASHGABAT
    AMEMBASSY ATHENS
    AMEMBASSY BELGRADE
    AMEMBASSY BISHKEK
    AMEMBASSY BRATISLAVA
    AMEMBASSY BRUSSELS
    AMEMBASSY BUCHAREST
    AMEMBASSY BUDAPEST
    AMEMBASSY CARACAS
    AMEMBASSY CHISINAU
    AMEMBASSY KIEV
    AMEMBASSY LJUBLJANA
    AMEMBASSY LONDON
                           UNCLASSIFIED

    PAGE 02        ZAGREB  00799  04 OF 05  110815Z
    AMEMBASSY MINSK
    AMEMBASSY MOSCOW
    AMEMBASSY PARIS
    AMEMBASSY PRAGUE
    AMEMBASSY RIGA
    AMEMBASSY ROME
    AMEMBASSY SKOPJE
    AMEMBASSY SOFIA
    AMEMBASSY TASHKENT
    AMEMBASSY TBILISI
    AMEMBASSY TIRANA
    AMEMBASSY VIENNA
    AMEMBASSY VILNIUS
    AMEMBASSY WARSAW
    AMEMBASSY YEREVAN
    DEPT OF COMMERCE WASHDC
    DEPT OF ENERGY WASHDC
    DEPT OF TREASURY WASHDC

    UNCLAS SECTION 04 OF 05 ZAGREB 000799

    SIPDIS

    SENSITIVE

    STATE FOR EB/CBED
    STATE PASS OPIC AND TDA

    E.O. 12958: N/A
    TAGS: ECON ENRG EPET SENV ENRG EPET SENV ENRG EPET SENV ENRG EPET SENV ENRG EPET SENV HR HRECON
    SUBJECT: DRUZHBADRIA AND CPOT PIPELINES -- CROATIA MOVING
    FORWARD BUT SOME QUESTIONS RAISED

                           UNCLASSIFIED

    PAGE 03        ZAGREB  00799  04 OF 05  110815Z
    DEAL.  ASSISTANT MINISTER OF ECONOMY ROMAN NOTA RECENTLY
    COMMENTED TO US, HALF SARCASTICALLY, THAT AMERICANS AND
    RUSSIANS REGULARLY VISIT HIM TO INQUIRE ABOUT THE STATUS OF
    THE DRUZHBADRIA PIPELINE PROJECT.  HOWEVER, THEY ARE NOT
    SHOWING SUPPORT FOR ANY PARTICULAR ROUTE, AND THEY ARE NOT
    COMMITTING TO PUT MONEY INTO THE PROJECT.  "IT IS NOT CLEAR
    WHO WILL FILL THE PIPELINE, AND WHO WILL BUY WHAT COMES OUT."
     INDEED, THE AGREEMENT DOES NOT PROVIDE GUARANTEES FOR
    MINIMUM DELIVERIES.

    ¶14.  (SBU) A FEW U.S. COMPANIES HAVE EXPRESSED PRELIMINARY
    INTEREST IN SOURCING FROM THE DRUZHBADRIA PIPELINE, BUT WERE
    DIRECTED BY THE GOC AND JANAF TO AK TRANSNEFT -- THE RUSSIAN
    ENTITY RESPONSIBLE FOR SECURING SUPPLIES AND BUYERS FOR THE
    OIL -- TO NEGOTIATE ANY PURCHASE AGREEMENTS.  THE GOC AND
    JANAF ARE ALSO NOT INTERESTED IN ANY DEAL THAT WOULD RESULT
    IN LOSING OWNERSHIP CONTROL OF ITS PIPELINE, WHICH WAS PART
    OF THE OFFER OF AT LEAST ONE OF THE INTERESTED U.S. PARTIES.

    ¶15.  (SBU) IN THE MEANTIME, THERE ARE RISKS FOR CROATIA --
    NAMELY ENVIRONMENTAL RISKS, AND BY EXTENSION, POLITICAL
    RISKS.  FOR CROATIA, UPGRADING ITS ENVIRONMENTAL MONITORING
    AND POLLUTION CONTROLS WILL BE RELATIVELY EXPENSIVE.  NOTA
    CHARACTERIZED COOPERATION AMONG THE COUNTRIES PARTY TO THE
    AGREEMENT AS GOOD, WITH "OCCASIONAL PROBLEMS FROM UKRAINE,"
    WHICH HAS A POTENTIALLY COMPETING, "INTERNAL PROJECT," I.E.,
    ODESSA-BRODY.  WHILE NOTA HAS SIMILAR CONCERNS ABOUT THE CPOT
    PROJECT, IF BOTH PROJECTS WERE RUNNING CONCURRENTLY, CROATIA
    WOULD GET MORE BENEFIT WITH THE SAME RISK, HE SAID.

    CPOT -- ALSO NOT WITHOUT PROBLEMS
                           UNCLASSIFIED

    PAGE 04        ZAGREB  00799  04 OF 05  110815Z
    ---------------------------------

    ¶16.  (SBU) THE CONSTANTA-PANCEVO-OMISALJ-TRIESTE (CPOT)
    PIPELINE, HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING CASPIAN BASIN OIL FIRST
    TO AN EXPORT TERMINAL AT OMISALJ, THEN AFTER THE CONSTRUCTION
    OF A PIPELINE TO TRIESTE, TO THE TRANS-ALPINE PIPELINE.  A
    U.S. CONSORTIUM, HLP-PARSONS, IS CURRENTLY CONDUCTING A
    TDA-FINANCED TECHNICAL AND FINANCIAL FEASIBILITY STUDY.  THE
    RELATIVELY MINOR UPGRADES THAT CROATIA WOULD HAVE TO MAKE FOR
    THE DRUZHBADRIA PROJECT WOULD COMPLEMENT THE POTENTIALLY
    LARGER CPOT PROJECT.  HOWEVER, THERE ARE SOME QUESTIONS FOR
    CROATIA REGARDING THE CPOT PROJECT.  CURRENTLY, SERBIA AND
    PARTS OF BOSNIA ARE SERVED BY OIL COMING EAST FROM OMISALJ
    AND SISAK, EITHER THROUGH PIPELINE OR TRUCK.  SHOULD A CPOT
    PIPELINE BE BUILT, CROATIA WOULD LOSE THOSE MARKETS, AS THE
    PETROLEUM WOULD FLOW WEST AND SUPPLY REFINERIES IN SERBIA AND
    BOSNIA.

    ¶17.  (SBU) IN A MEETING WITH JANAF PRESIDENT VESNA
    TRNOKOP-TANTA AND AN ADVISOR, PROBLEMS WERE CITED WITH THE
    PARSONS STUDY.  NAMELY, JANAF FELT THAT PARSONS WAS USING
    UNREALISTIC ASSUMPTIONS ABOUT ECONOMIC GROWTH AND THE
    RESULTANT USE OF ENERGY IN SERBIA AND BOSNIA.  THESE

                           UNCLASSIFIED

                               UNCLASSIFIED     PTQ8457

    PAGE 01        ZAGREB  00799  05 OF 05  110815Z
    ACTION EB-00

    INFO  LOG-00   NP-00    AGRE-00  AID-00   CEA-01   CIAE-00  CTME-00
          INL-00   DINT-00  DODE-00  ITCE-00  DOTE-00  WHA-00   SRPP-00
          EXME-00  EUR-00   E-00     FAAE-00  FBIE-00  UTED-00  VC-00
          FRB-00   H-01     TEDE-00  INR-00   IO-00    ITC-01   LAB-01
          L-00     VCE-00   AC-01    NSAE-00  NSCE-00  NSF-01   OES-00
          OIC-02   OMB-02   OPIC-01  PC-01    PM-00    PRS-00   ACE-00
          SP-00    SSO-00   SS-00    STR-00   TEST-00  T-00     USIE-00
          EPAE-00  PMB-00   PRM-00   DRL-01   G-00     NFAT-00  SAS-00
          SWCI-00    /013W
                      ------------------542808  110815Z /38
    R 110815Z APR 03
    FM AMEMBASSY ZAGREB
    TO SECSTATE WASHDC 9932
    INFO AMEMBASSY ALMATY
    AMEMBASSY ASHGABAT
    AMEMBASSY ATHENS
    AMEMBASSY BELGRADE
    AMEMBASSY BISHKEK
    AMEMBASSY BRATISLAVA
    AMEMBASSY BRUSSELS
    AMEMBASSY BUCHAREST
    AMEMBASSY BUDAPEST
    AMEMBASSY CARACAS
    AMEMBASSY CHISINAU
    AMEMBASSY KIEV
    AMEMBASSY LJUBLJANA
    AMEMBASSY LONDON
                           UNCLASSIFIED

    PAGE 02        ZAGREB  00799  05 OF 05  110815Z
    AMEMBASSY MINSK
    AMEMBASSY MOSCOW
    AMEMBASSY PARIS
    AMEMBASSY PRAGUE
    AMEMBASSY RIGA
    AMEMBASSY ROME
    AMEMBASSY SKOPJE
    AMEMBASSY SOFIA
    AMEMBASSY TASHKENT
    AMEMBASSY TBILISI
    AMEMBASSY TIRANA
    AMEMBASSY VIENNA
    AMEMBASSY VILNIUS
    AMEMBASSY WARSAW
    AMEMBASSY YEREVAN
    DEPT OF COMMERCE WASHDC
    DEPT OF ENERGY WASHDC
    DEPT OF TREASURY WASHDC

    UNCLAS SECTION 05 OF 05 ZAGREB 000799

    SIPDIS

    SENSITIVE

    STATE FOR EB/CBED
    STATE PASS OPIC AND TDA

    E.O. 12958: N/A
    TAGS: ECON ENRG EPET SENV ENRG EPET SENV ENRG EPET SENV ENRG EPET SENV ENRG EPET SENV HR HRECON
    SUBJECT: DRUZHBADRIA AND CPOT PIPELINES -- CROATIA MOVING
    FORWARD BUT SOME QUESTIONS RAISED

                           UNCLASSIFIED

    PAGE 03        ZAGREB  00799  05 OF 05  110815Z
    ASSUMPTIONS INCREASED THE COST OF THE PROJECT IN TWO WAYS --
    MORE INFRASTRUCTURE WOULD NEED TO BE BUILT IN THE EASTERN
    PART OF THE ROUTE, AND LESS OIL WOULD END UP BEING DELIVERED
    TO CROATIA AS A RESULT OF CONSUMPTION PROJECTIONS.  "IT ISN'T
    WORTH IT TO US TO LOSE OUR SERBIAN MARKETS, IF WE ONLY GET 5
    MILLION TONS OF OIL," COMPLAINED TRNOKOP.  (IN OTHER QUARTERS
    WE HAVE HEARD ESTIMATES OF 10-12 MILLION TONS PER YEAR AS THE
    MINIMUM ECONOMICALLY FEASIBLE AMOUNT.)  ON THE OTHER HAND,
    MINISTRY OF ECONOMY OFFICIALS SAID THEIR DISPLEASURE WITH THE
    PARSONS STUDY WAS SIMPLY THAT PARSONS WAS USING OLD,
    INACCURATE DATA.

    COMMENT
    -------

    ¶18.  (SBU) WHILE BOTH PIPELINE PROJECTS COULD BE BENEFICIAL
    TO CROATIA, THERE IS LITTLE CROATIA CAN DO, AS A TRANSIT
    COUNTRY, TO BRING THE PROJECTS TO FRUITION.  IN THE MEANTIME,
    ENVIRONMENTAL CONCERNS ARE INCREASING, AND JANAF WILL BE
    LOATH TO COMPLETE EXTENSIVE INVESTMENTS , INCLUDING IN
    ENVIRONMENTAL UPGRADES, UNTIL THE PROJECTS HAVE FIRM SUPPORT
    FROM BUYERS AND SUPPLIERS.
    ROSSIN

                           UNCLASSIFIED

    >

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