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PHUM PINR PTER PGOV PREL PREF PL PM PHSA PE PARM PINS PK PUNE PO PALESTINIAN PU PBTS PROP PTBS POL POLI PA PGOVZI POLMIL POLITICAL PARTIES POLM PD POLITICS POLICY PAS PMIL PINT PNAT PV PKO PPOL PERSONS PING PBIO PH PETR PARMS PRES PCON PETERS PRELBR PT PLAB PP PAK PDEM PKPA PSOCI PF PLO PTERM PJUS PSOE PELOSI PROPERTY PGOVPREL PARP PRL PNIR PHUMKPAL PG PREZ PGIC PBOV PAO PKK PROV PHSAK PHUMPREL PROTECTION PGOVBL PSI PRELPK PGOVENRG PUM PRELKPKO PATTY PSOC PRIVATIZATION PRELSP PGOVEAIDUKNOSWGMHUCANLLHFRSPITNZ PMIG PREC PAIGH PROG PSHA PARK PETER POG PHUS PPREL PS PTERPREL PRELPGOV POV PKPO PGOVECON POUS PGOVPRELPHUMPREFSMIGELABEAIDKCRMKWMN PWBG PMAR PREM PAR PNR PRELPGOVEAIDECONEINVBEXPSCULOIIPBTIO PARMIR PGOVGM PHUH PARTM PN PRE PTE PY POLUN PPEL PDOV PGOVSOCI PIRF PGOVPM PBST PRELEVU PGOR PBTSRU PRM PRELKPAOIZ PGVO PERL PGOC PAGR PMIN PHUMR PVIP PPD PGV PRAM PINL PKPAL PTERE PGOF PINO PHAS PODC PRHUM PHUMA PREO PPA PEPFAR PGO PRGOV PAC PRESL PORG PKFK PEPR PRELP PREFA PNG PGOVPHUMKPAO PRELECON PINOCHET PFOR PGOVLO PHUMBA PRELC PREK PHUME PHJM POLINT PGOVPZ PGOVKCRM PGOVE PHALANAGE PARTY PECON PEACE PROCESS PLN PRELSW PAHO PEDRO PRELA PASS PPAO PGPV PNUM PCUL PGGV PSA PGOVSMIGKCRMKWMNPHUMCVISKFRDCA PGIV PRFE POGOV PEL PBT PAMQ PINF PSEPC POSTS PHUMPGOV PVOV PHSAPREL PROLIFERATION PENA PRELTBIOBA PIN PRELL PGOVPTER PHAM PHYTRP PTEL PTERPGOV PHARM PROTESTS PRELAF PKBL PRELKPAO PKNP PARMP PHUML PFOV PERM PUOS PRELGOV PHUMPTER PARAGRAPH PERURENA PBTSEWWT PCI PETROL PINSO PINSCE PQL PEREZ PBS
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### Viewing cable 02HARARE2310, FARM WORKERS

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
02HARARE2310 | 2002-10-21 11:35 | 2011-08-24 16:30 | UNCLASSIFIED | Embassy Harare

`

    This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

    211135Z Oct 02

` `

    UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 HARARE 002310

    SIPDIS

    DCHA/OFDA FOR KHANDAGLE, BORNS, AND MARX
    DCHA/FFP FOR LANDIS, BRAUSE, SKORIC, AND PETERSON
    AFR/SA FOR POE, FORT AND MARJORIE COPSON
    AFR/SD FOR ISRALOW AND WHELAN
    STATE FOR AF/S DELISI AND RAYNOR
    STATE/INR FOR LESLIE CURTIN AND WILLIAM WOOD
    NAIROBI FOR DCHA/OFDA/ARO FOR RILEY AND MYER,
    REDSO/ESA/FFP FOR SENYKOFF
    NSC FOR DWORKIN
    PRETORIA FOR DCHA/FFP DISKIN, DCHA/OFDA BRYAN, AND
    USDA/FAS HELM
    ROME FOR LAVELLE

    E.O. 12958: N/A
    TAGS: EAID EAGR PGOV ZI
    SUBJECT: FARM WORKERS

    -------
    SUMMARY
    -------

    ¶1.  THE EFFECTS OF GOVERNMENT MACROECONOMIC POLICIES
    INHIBITING CROP PRODUCTION, IMPORTS, AND EQUITABLE
    DISTRIBUTION AND MARKETING, COMBINED WITH LOWER THAN
    AVERAGE RAINFALL, HAVE RAISED THE SPECTER OF FAMINE IN
    ZIMBABWE.  UP TO 1.5 MILLION EX-COMMERCIAL FARM WORKERS
    AND THEIR FAMILIES ARE CURRENTLY OR COULD SOON BE IN
    VULNERABLE, AND FACE POSSIBLY LIFE THREATENING
    CIRCUMSTANCES DUE TO FARM EXPROPRIATIONS IN ZIMBABWE
    WHICH HAVE FREQUENTLY BEEN ACCOMPANIED BY VIOLENT
    INVASIONS. MANY EX-FARM WORKERS' VULNERABLE SITUATIONS
    ARE EXACERBATED BY THE POLITICAL TENSIONS ASSOCIATED
    WITH FARM EXPROPRIATIONS, AND MINIMAL HUMANITARIAN
    ASSISTANCE IS BEING PROVIDED TO EX-FARM WORKERS BECAUSE
    OF A LACK OF QUALIFIED IMPLEMENTING PARTNERS IN
    COMMERCIAL FARM AREAS AND POLITICAL TENSIONS ASSOCIATED
    IN WORKING WITH EX-FARM WORKERS. WHILE COPING MECHANISMS
    AND SEVERANCE PACKAGES MAY SUSTAIN EX-FARM WORKERS IN
    MASHONALAND AND MANICALAND FOR ANOTHER FEW MONTHS, THE
    INABILITY TO OBTAIN SUFFICIENT FOOD IN MANY AFFECTED
    AREAS WILL EVENTUALLY FORCE PEOPLE TO MOVE. THERE IS
    DOCUMENTED AND ANECDOTAL EVIDENCE THAT INCREASING
    NUMBERS OF EX-FARM WORKERS ARE ON THE MOVE. WHILE MOST
    EX-FARM WORKERS WILL PROBABLY RELOCATE TO URBAN AREAS IN
    ZIMBABWE, THERE MAY BE INCREASING NUMBERS OF DISPLACED
    LEAVING FOR NEIGHBORING COUNTRIES.  OFDA/RA BELIEVES
    THAT THE MIGRATION TO CITIES AND TOWNS WILL INTENSIFY
    SOON, WITH VERY NOTICEABLE INCREASES BY JANUARY.  END
    SUMMARY.

    ---------------------
    GENERAL IDP SITUATION
    ---------------------

    ¶2. A TEAM COMPOSED OF A USAID/DCHA/OFDA EMERGENCY
    DISASTER RESPONSE COORDINATOR AND INFORMATION OFFICER
    TRAVELED TO ZIMBABWE FROM OCTOBER 6-9 TO MEET WITH
    USAID/ZIMBABWE AND THE USAID/DCHA/OFDA HUMANITARIAN
    RESPONSE ADVISOR (HRA) IN HARARE. THE TEAM TRAVELED TO
    ZIMBABWE TO DISCUSS THE INTERNALLY DISPLACED PERSON
    (IDP) SITUATION, NOTING AN ONGOING ASSESSMENT BY THE
    ZIMBABWE COMMUNITY DEVELOPMENT TRUST (ZCDT) THAT
    SUGGESTS THAT AS MANY AS 1.5 MILLION EX-COMMERCIAL FARM
    WORKERS AND THEIR FAMILIES ARE CURRENTLY OR COULD SOON
    BE IN VULNERABLE, AND POSSIBLY LIFE THREATENING
    CIRCUMSTANCES FOLLOWING FARM EXPROPRIATIONS (NOTE: THE
    TERM EX-FARM WORKERS HEREINAFTER REFERS TO BOTH ACTUAL
    EX-FARM WORKERS AND THEIR FAMILIES.  END NOTE).  THESE
    EX-FARM WORKERS ARE LOCATED PRIMARILY IN NORTHERN
    ZIMBABWE IN THE PROVINCES OF MASHONALAND EAST, CENTRAL,
    AND WEST, AND MANICALAND.  ON SEPTEMBER 19, THE ZCDT
    RELEASED THE RESULTS OF A SURVEY IDENTIFYING 750,000
    VULNERABLE EX-FARM WORKERS, MANY OF WHOM HAVE BEGUN TO
    MOVE ALONG ROADWAYS AND TO THE MARGINS OF CITIES.  ZCDT
    REPORTS THAT MANY OF THOSE REMAINING ON THE FARMS ARE
    DOING SO WITHOUT ACCESS TO SAFE WATER AND SANITATION.
    NEWS SOURCES HAVE ALSO REPORTED DEATHS FROM DIARRHEA AND
    CHOLERA AMONG EX-FARM WORKER POPULATIONS.

    ¶3. SOME EX-FARM WORKERS ARE RECEIVING MEAGER `FORCED
    RETRENCHMENT' SEVERANCE PACKAGES FROM EXPELLED FARMERS,
    AS REQUIRED BY ZIMBABWEAN LAW.  HOWEVER, MANY HAVE NOT
    RECEIVED ANY SEVERANCE PAY.  ON SEPTEMBER 20, OFDA/HRA
    INTERVIEWED TWO YOUNG EX-FARM WORKERS IN EPWORTH, AN
    AREA IN SOUTHEAST METROPOLITAN HARARE.  EACH WAS GIVEN
    2400 ZIMBABWEAN DOLLARS (Z2,400 = $US2.50) IN SEVERANCE
    AND WAS SUBSISTING ON A DAILY BREAD LOAF THAT COST THEM
    Z100.   (NOTE: AT THE CURRENT EXCHANGE RATE, ONE DOLLAR
    U.S. EQUALS Z950.  END NOTE.)  WHILE SEVERANCE PACKAGES
    VARY ACCORDING TO THE LENGTH OF SERVICE, THEY LIKELY
    WON'T LAST MUCH LONGER WITH THE RISING INFLATION IN
    ZIMBABWE.

    ¶4. MANY EX-FARM WORKERS' VULNERABLE SITUATIONS ARE
    EXACERBATED BY THE POLITICAL TENSIONS ASSOCIATED WITH
    FARM EXPROPRIATIONS.  REPORTS INDICATE ABUSE OF EX-FARM
    WORKERS AND DENIAL OF FOOD FOR POLITICAL REASONS.  A
    REPUTABLE HUMAN RIGHTS ORGANIZATION STUDY INDICATES THAT
    APPROXIMATELY THREE OUT OF FOUR EX-FARM WORKERS HAVE
    BEEN PHYSICALLY ABUSED.  THE GENERAL AGRICULTURAL AND
    PLANTATION WORKERS UNION OF ZIMBABWE (GAPWUZ) CITES THAT
    AS MANY AS 60% OF EX-FARM WORKERS HAVE PARENTAGE
    ORIGINATING IN NEIGHBORING COUNTRIES AND THUS ARE
    TECHNICALLY CONSIDERED STATELESS, DESPITE HAVING VOTED
    AND LIVED IN ZIMBABWE FOR DECADES, IF NOT GENERATIONS.
    AS A RESULT, MANY OF THOSE WHO LEAVE COMMERCIAL FARMING
    AREAS MAY BE ATTEMPTING TO BLEND INTO THE URBAN
    POPULATION IN ORDER TO ESCAPE PERSECUTION. THIS
    COMPLICATES THE IDENTIFICATION OF IDPS FOR PROVISION OF
    HUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCE.

    -----------------------
    HUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCE
    -----------------------

    ¶5. AT PRESENT, ONLY MINIMAL HUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCE IS
    BEING PROVIDED TO THE EX-FARM WORKERS FOR SEVERAL
    REASONS.  AS THE NORTHERN AREAS OF ZIMBABWE HAVE
    TRADITIONALLY BEEN MORE SELF-SUFFICIENT, IN LARGE PART
    BECAUSE OF THE COMMERCIAL FARMS, INTERNATIONAL NGOS HAVE
    TENDED TO FOCUS ON THE LESS DEVELOPED AREAS OF THE
    CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY.  HAVING
    ALREADY ESTABLISHED AN INFRASTRUCTURE FOR DEVELOPMENT
    ASSISTANCE IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS, THE
    INTERNATIONAL NGOS ARE FOCUSING THEIR HUMANITARIAN
    ASSISTANCE ACTIVITIES IN THOSE AREAS AS WELL. ANOTHER
    REASON IS THAT MOST NEWLY ARRIVED NGOS ARE IN THE
    PROCESS OF REGISTERING AND ESTABLISHING THEMSELVES,
    BRINGING IN STAFF, AND DEVELOPING LOGISTICAL
    CAPABILITIES.  THE GOZ'S BUREAUCRATIC AND LENGTHY
    REGISTRATION PROCESS HAS SIGNIFICANTLY DELAYED A NUMBER
    OF NGOS FROM COMMENCING HUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCE.  IT IS
    NOT YET CLEAR HOW MANY OF THE NEWLY ESTABLISHED NGOS, IF
    ANY, WILL TARGET THE NORTHERN AREAS AND/OR THE EX-FARM
    WORKERS. FINALLY, BASED ON INTERVIEWS WITH INTERNATIONAL
    AND LOCAL NGOS CONDUCTED BY OFDA/EDRO AND HRA ON OCTOBER
    8, THESE ORGANIZATIONS ARE RELUCTANT TO WORK IN NORTHERN
    AREAS BECAUSE OF THE POLITICAL TENSIONS ASSOCIATED WITH
    ASSISTING EX-FARM WORKERS.   AT LEAST THREE MAJOR
    INTERNATIONAL NGOS HAVE RECENTLY BEEN DENIED PERMISSION
    TO UNDERTAKE FOOD DISTRIBUTIONS IN ZIMBABWE, SEVERELY
    RESTRICTING THE AVAILABILITY OF QUALIFIED IMPLEMENTING
    PARTNERS IN VULNERABLE AREAS.

    ¶6. IN SOME COMMERCIAL FARMING AREAS, LOCAL NGOS
    REPRESENT THE ONLY PROVIDER OF ASSISTANCE TO EX-FARM
    WORKERS.  A LOCAL NGO CONSORTIUM, FOOD SECURITY NETWORK
    (FOSENET), HAS BEEN FORMED TO MONITOR FOOD DELIVERY
    PROBLEMS NATIONWIDE AND EX-FARM WORKERS ARE A SUBSET OF
    THEIR CONCERN.  THEIR OBJECTIVES ARE TO FIELD LOCAL
    CONCERNS AND ISSUES, AND PASS THEM ON TO THE UN
    DEVELOPMENT PROGRAM (UNDP), THE UN WORLD FOOD PROGRAM,
    DONORS AND THE INTERNATIONAL NGOS.  FOSENET IS
    CONSIDERING EXPANDING ITS SCOPE OF WORK TO INCLUDE
    RELIEF ELEMENTS AS WELL.

    ¶7. IN ADDITION TO THE LACK OF QUALIFIED IMPLEMENTING
    PARTNERS IN SOME SEVERELY AFFECTED AREAS, THERE IS NOT
    YET AN EFFECTIVE IDP IDENTIFICATION FRAMEWORK IN PLACE.
    USAID SUPPORTED THE CREATION OF THE UNDP/RELIEF AND
    RECOVERY UNIT (UNDP/RRU) AS THE LEAD COORDINATING UNIT
    FOR THE HUMANITARIAN RESPONSE, WITH RESPONSIBILITY FOR
    MONITORING THE IDP SITUATION.  HOWEVER, THE RRU'S IDP
    SPECIALIST POSITION, ESSENTIAL FOR EFFECTIVE MONITORING
    OF THE IDP SITUATION, HAS YET TO BE FILLED.  IN THE
    ABSENCE OF AN IDP MONITORING UNIT, UNDP/RRU RECENTLY
    SIGNED A MEMORANDUM OF UNDERSTANDING WITH THE MINISTRY
    OF LABOR AND SOCIAL WELFARE TO CONDUCT A JOINT
    ASSESSMENT OF THE NUMBER OF DISPLACED EX-FARM WORKERS.
    WHILE THIS MAY BE A STEP FORWARD, AN INDEPENDENT, NON-
    GOVERNMENTAL IDP MONITORING PROGRAM REMAINS VITAL TO THE
    EFFECTIVE PROVISION OF HUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCE.
    ----------------------
    POTENTIAL DISPLACEMENT
    ----------------------

    ¶8. OFDA/RA ESTIMATES THAT TWO-THIRDS OF THE EX-FARM
    WORKERS WERE WORKING ON FARMS IN MASHONALAND, IN A 150
    KILOMETER RADIUS AROUND HARARE.  THIS IS THE PRIME
    AGRICULTURAL LAND WHERE THE MAJORITY OF THE EXPROPRIATED
    COMMERCIAL FARMS ARE LOCATED.  AS THE HUMANITARIAN
    SITUATION IN THESE AREAS CONTINUES TO DETERIORATE, MOST
    EX-FARM WORKERS ARE LEFT WITH THE CHOICE TO STAY WHERE
    THEY ARE AND HOPE THAT HUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCE FINDS
    THEM, OR TO MOVE IN SEARCH OF FOOD.

    ¶9. AT PRESENT, IT APPEARS THAT MOST PEOPLE ARE CHOOSING
    TO STAY WHERE THEY ARE.  HOWEVER, THERE IS DOCUMENTED
    AND ANECDOTAL EVIDENCE THAT SMALL, BUT INCREASING
    NUMBERS ARE ON THE MOVE.  SOME OF THE EX-FARM WORKERS,
    PROBABLY IN THE LOW THOUSANDS, ARE LEAVING ZIMBABWE IF
    THEY HAVE PASSPORTS AND MONEY.  NEIGHBORING COUNTRIES
    ARE NOT OPENLY EMBRACING THEM.  OFDA/HRA IS HEARING
    DISTURBING STORIES THAT THE GOZ MAY BE TRUCKING SOME
    FARM WORKERS TO AREAS NEAR BORDERS, BUT THESE HAVE YET
    TO BE CONFIRMED.  HOWEVER, IF LEFT TO THEIR OWN DEVICES,
    AND IF THEY CAN FIND TRANSPORTATION, OFDA/HRA BELIEVES
    THOSE ON THE MOVE WILL HEAD TOWARD HARARE AND OTHER
    MEDIUM-SIZED TOWNS.  SIGNIFICANT EVIDENCE OF INFORMAL
    SETTLEMENT GROWTH IN THE EPWORTH, HATCLIFFE EAST,
    DZIVARASEKWA, PORTA CAMP, AND OTHER AREAS AROUND HARARE
    HAS BEEN REPORTED BY NGOS AND WITNESSED BY OFDA/RA.

    ¶10. THERE ARE SEVERAL REASONS TO BELIEVE THIS TREND WILL
    CONTINUE IN THE COMING MONTHS.  FOOD MAY BE AVAILABLE IN
    SHOPS, AND COSTS CAN BE LOWER IN THE CITIES BECAUSE
    PRICE GOUGING IS MORE CONTROLLED.  IN ADDITION, THE
    COMMUNAL FAMILY STRUCTURE IN RURAL AREAS IS ALREADY
    STRETCHED TO CAPACITY AND CANNOT SUPPORT ADDITIONAL
    FAMILY MEMBERS.  FINALLY, AND PERHAPS MOST IMPORTANTLY,
    THE URBAN AREAS ARE NOT AS TIGHTLY CONTROLLED
    POLITICALLY, ALLOWING EX-FARM WORKERS TO ESCAPE NOTICE.
    AS MANY AS HALF OF THE EX-FARM WORKERS MAY DRIFT TOWARD
    HARARE AND MOST OF THE REST TO NEIGHBORING SMALL CENTERS
    SUCH AS CHINHOYI, BINDURA, CHITUNGWIZA, AND MARONDERA.
    THIS PATTERN OF RURAL TO URBAN DISPLACEMENT WAS ALSO
    RECORDED DURING THE 1992 FOOD SECURITY CRISIS,
    SUGGESTING SIMILAR MOVEMENT AS THE FOOD SECURITY
    SITUATION DETERIORATES.

    ¶11. SOME HUMANITARIAN WORKERS IN ZIMBABWE BELIEVE THAT
    IDPS MAY INCREASINGLY SEEK TO ESCAPE FOOD INSECURITY BY
    LEAVING THE COUNTRY. THEY NOTE THAT EX-FARM WORKERS
    OFTEN HAVE FAMILY ORIGINS IN NEIGHBORING COUNTRIES AND
    SO MAY HAVE SOMEPLACE TO RETURN TO.  IN ADDITION, THE
    RELATIVELY SMALL SIZE AND EXCELLENT TRANSPORT NETWORK IN
    ZIMBABWE MAKE MOVING LONG DISTANCES BY PUBLIC TRANSPORT
    POSSIBLE.  WHILE NOT ALL IDPS WILL HAVE MONEY FOR
    TRANSPORT, A SIGNIFICANT NUMBER MAY CHOOSE TO TRY TO
    ESCAPE THE CRISIS IN ZIMBABWE.  THE GOVERNMENT OF SOUTH
    AFRICA HAS PLANS FOR THE POSSIBLE ARRIVAL OF EX-FARM
    WORKERS AND OTHER VULNERABLE GROUPS.  THE INTERNATIONAL
    FEDERATION OF THE RED CROSS/RED CRESCENT SOCIETIES
    (IFRC) IN PARTICULAR HAS BEEN VERY ACTIVE IN WORKING
    WITH RED CROSS SOCIETIES IN COUNTRIES NEIGHBORING
    ZIMBABWE TO PLAN FOR POSSIBLE ARRIVALS.  AS WITH
    INTERNAL DISPLACEMENT IN ZIMBABWE, IT MAY BE VERY
    DIFFICULT TO TRACK NUMBERS OF EX-FARM WORKERS LEAVING
    ZIMBABWE, AS THEY WILL BE MOVING WITHOUT OFFICIAL
    DOCUMENTATION AND WILL LIKELY TRY TO ESCAPE NOTICE.

    ----------------------------------
    EX-FARM WORKERS REMAINING IN PLACE
    ----------------------------------

    ¶12. THOSE EX-FARM WORKERS WHO HAVE CHOSEN TO REMAIN IN
    PLACE, OR HAVE NOT YET STARTED TO MOVE, HAVE DONE SO FOR
    SEVERAL REASONS.  OVERALL HEALTH HAS NOT YET BECOME AN
    ISSUE FOR THE GENERAL POPULATION AND MANY CAN WITHSTAND
    ANOTHER FEW MONTHS OF WEIGHT LOSS.   ALSO, MANY ARE
    STILL ABLE TO LIVE OFF THEIR SEVERANCE PACKAGE.  ANOTHER
    BENEFIT OF REMAINING IN PLACE IS THE RESIDUAL MAIZE CROP
    FROM THE COMMERCIAL FARMS.  SOME EX-FARM WORKERS HAVE
    BEEN ABLE TO STASH SMALL AMOUNTS OF THIS MAIZE FOR
    CONSUMPTION LATER.   THESE FACTORS, DEPENDING ON THE
    CIRCUMSTANCES, COULD HOLD PEOPLE IN PLACE FOR ANOTHER
    TWO TO THREE MONTHS.

    ¶13. SOME EX-FARM WORKERS MAY LEAVE THEIR FARMS, BUT
    INSTEAD OF MOVING DIRECTLY TOWARDS THE CITIES, THEY WILL
    TAKE REFUGE AT OTHER FARMS WHERE THE PRESSURE TO MOVE IS
    NOT SO INTENSE.  OFDA/HRA ALSO SUSPECTS THAT MANY WILL
    BEGIN TO GO TO CHURCH-BASED MISSIONS WITH HOSPITALS THAT
    ARE SPREAD THROUGHOUT THE COUNTRYSIDE.  HOWEVER, THESE
    MAY JUST BE WAY STATIONS ON THE MIGRATION ROUTE TO
    CITIES AND TOWNS.

    -----------
    CONCLUSIONS
    -----------

    ¶14. WHILE COPING MECHANISMS AND SEVERANCE PACKAGES MAY
    SUSTAIN VULNERABLE EX-FARM WORKERS FOR ANOTHER FEW
    MONTHS, THE LACK OF GOVERNMENT SUPPORT OR OTHER
    HUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCE IN THE AFFECTED AREAS WILL
    EVENTUALLY FORCE PEOPLE TO MOVE.  OFDA/HRA BELIEVES THAT
    THE MIGRATION TO CITIES AND TOWNS WILL INTENSIFY VERY
    SOON, WITH NOTICEABLE INCREASES BY JANUARY.  IN HARARE,
    THAT MIGHT TRANSLATE INTO 100,000 TO 150,000 ADDITIONAL
    EX-FARM WORKERS SQUATTING IN TEMPORARY SETTLEMENTS.  BY
    MARCH, THESE NUMBERS COULD REACH 400,000 TO 500,000.
    THE SAME DYNAMIC WILL LIKELY APPLY TO THE SMALLER
    SURROUNDING REGIONAL TOWNS.  THE 1992 FOOD SECURITY
    CRISIS PROVIDES A BLUEPRINT OF POPULATION MOVEMENTS IN A
    SIMILAR SITUATION.  HOWEVER, THE ADDED COMPLEXITIES OF A
    POLITICAL SITUATION LIMITING IDENTIFICATION AND
    TARGETING OF IDPS COULD SERVE TO EXACERBATE THE EFFECTS
    OF THE CURRENT CRISIS BEYOND THAT OF 1992.

    ---------------
    RECOMMENDATIONS
    ---------------

    ¶15. A STRENGTHENED UN HUMANITARIAN IDP MONITORING UNIT
    IS ESSENTIAL TO THE EFFECTIVE UNDERSTANDING AND TRACKING
    OF THE IDP SITUATION IN ZIMBABWE.  TO THE EXTENT
    POSSIBLE, THE USG SHOULD WORK TO IMPROVE THIS CAPACITY.
    IN PARTICULAR, INFORMATION GENERATION REGARDING THE
    NUMBERS OF DISPLACED EX-FARM WORKERS AND THE LOCATIONS
    OF IDP CAMPS AND INFORMAL SETTLEMENT AREAS IN AND AROUND
    URBAN AREAS IS A HIGH PRIORITY FOR GUIDING HUMANITARIAN
    RESPONSE.

    ¶16. INTERNATIONAL AND LOCAL NGOS SHOULD BE ENCOURAGED TO
    DEVELOP PROGRAMS TO RESPOND TO THE NEEDS OF DISPLACED EX-
    FARM WORKERS IN COMMERCIAL FARMING AREAS OF ZIMBABWE.
    PROGRAMS SHOULD MEET IMMEDIATE EMERGENCY NEEDS, SUCH AS
    SUPPLEMENTAL AND THERAPEUTIC FEEDING, AS DESCRIBED IN
    ONGOING SITUATION ASSESSMENTS.  SUCH PROGRAMS SHOULD BE
    DEVELOPED URGENTLY TO DEAL WITH THESE IMMEDIATE NEEDS,
    BUT ALSO TO PUT ASSISTANCE MECHANISMS IN PLACE BEFORE
    LARGE-SCALE MOVEMENTS START TO OCCUR.

    ¶17. THE GROWTH OF INFORMAL SETTLEMENTS IN AND AROUND
    URBAN AREAS SHOULD BE CLOSELY MONITORED, AS LACK OF
    ACCESS TO CLEAN WATER, FOOD, ADEQUATE SHELTER, AND BASIC
    HEALTH CARE MAY LEAD TO EPIDEMIC DISEASE OUTBREAK AND
    DRIVE CONTINUED POPULATION MOVEMENT.  WHERE APPROPRIATE,
    EMERGENCY PROGRAMS RESPONDING TO NEEDS IN INFORMAL
    SETTLEMENT AREAS SHOULD BE INITIATED.  SULLIVAN

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