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### Viewing cable 04HARARE1157, STAFFDEL VISIT ILLUMINATES ELECTION REFORMS,

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04HARARE1157 | 2004-07-15 05:13 | 2011-08-24 16:30 | UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY | Embassy Harare

`

    This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

    150513Z Jul 04

` `

    UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 06 HARARE 001157

    SIPDIS

    SENSITIVE

    NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR C. COURVELLE, D. TEITELBAUM
    LONDON FOR C. GURNEY
    PARIS FOR C. NEARY
    NAIROBI FOR T. PFLAUMER

    ¶E.  O.  12958: N/A
    TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM ZI VIP
    SUBJECT: STAFFDEL VISIT ILLUMINATES ELECTION REFORMS,
    ATMOSPHERICS

    REF: (A) HARARE 1110 (B) HARARE 1067

    ¶1.  (SBU) SUMMARY: Staffdel comprised of Majority
    Professional Staffperson Joan Condon and Democratic Party
    Professional Staffperson Pearl-Alice Marsh of the House
    International Relations Committee and USAID Congressional
    Liaison Susan Williams met with a host of interlocutors
    during a June 29-July 5 visit to Zimbabwe.  GOZ officials
    charted parameters of recently proposed electoral reforms
    but were vague on how such reforms might address difficult
    issues such as politically motivated violence and access to
    media.  Opposition MDC leaders and representatives of civil
    society generally recognized that the proposed reforms
    offered some opportunity for positive change but were
    pessimistic on prospects for adjusting fundamental flaws in
    electoral environment and administration.  ACTION REQUEST
    follows in paragraph 32.  END SUMMARY.

    Election Commissioner: Unresolved Issues
    ----------------------------------------

    ¶2.  (SBU) In a meeting in his office June 30, Electoral
    Supervisory Commission (ESC) Chairman Sobuza Gula-Ndebele
    told the staffdel that he had yet to see a formal draft of
    the proposed electoral reforms reportedly approved by the
    ZANU-PF Central Committee June 25 (reftel).  However, he
    said that he had been told that the approved version adopted
    in most respects confidential recommendations made by the
    ESC.  The elements reported in the official press
    substantiated this.  He noted that his commission had
    recommended the Chief Election Officer be appointed by an
    independent body, not the president as reportedly designated
    in the reported reform package.  He predicted this would be
    the source of additional debate, and asserted that in any
    event the integrity of the appointment(s) could overcome the
    manner of selection if tenure and resources were secure.

    ¶3.  (SBU) Gula-Ndebele confirmed that the changes were
    expected to be implemented in time for parliamentary
    elections currently scheduled for March.  Timing would
    present a quandary, however - a constitutional amendment
    would be required in order to establish a truly independent
    commission with powers contemplated by the reported reforms.
    Passing the law and effecting a constitutional amendment in
    time to prepare for an election by March would be "a tall
    order" regardless of political will.  He was unaware of a
    set date for implementation but had heard it would be in
    August.  Difficulties might require postponement of the
    election by a few months, a delay to which the parties might
    agree.  He said study was being given to establishment of a
    new commission under existing law, but such an approach
    would be "untidy" and could yield a commission of inadequate
    authority and compromised independence.

    ¶4.  (SBU) The Chairman emphasized that sanction power
    reportedly being accorded the new commission would
    distinguish it positively from his ESC.  He said that the
    new commission could pursue complaints filed by any party or
    pursue matters on its own initiative.  The Chief Election
    Officer would have administrative authority but could not
    overturn any decision of the commission, which would report
    to the Parliament, not the President.  He expected that the
    new commission would be able to draw from a range of
    sanctions, including "deduction of votes" for violations by
    a party.  He said that announced electoral reforms did not
    explicitly address "environmental" issues such as
    suppression of political violence and access to media but
    asserted that the new commission would have authority to act
    on such issues.  The Chairman said he favored as inclusive
    an approach as possible with respect to international
    observers, although he conceded that others in the GOZ
    disagreed.  He noted that deep ruling party suspicion of
    donor-funded NGOs was driving efforts to consolidate voter
    education efforts under supervision by the ESC or a new
    commission.
    ¶5.  (SBU) According to Gula-Ndebele, the new commission
    would still have to rely on police to carry out some of its
    enforcement orders.  He expected that electoral courts
    mentioned in media reports would likely not be standing
    courts but would be composed of existing High Court and/or
    Supreme Court judges and sit on an ad hoc basis.  Commitment
    of adequate resources to support operation of the
    contemplated mechanisms would be a key test of the
    government's political will and central to their
    effectiveness.

    ¶6.  (SBU) Gula-Ndebele lamented Zimbabwe's highly polarized
    political climate, for which he asserted each party bore its
    share of blame.  He expressed hope that the parties, civil
    society and the international community would give the new
    commission a fair chance to gain the confidence of all.

    Mutasa: No American Observers (and an Aside on Food)
    --------------------------------------------- -------

    ¶7. (SBU) In a July 2 meeting in his office at ZANU-PF Party
    Headquarters (where he is Party Secretary for External
    Affairs) Minister for Anti-Corruption and Anti-Monopolies
    Didymus Mutasa underscored the great attention being given
    electoral reforms by the party leadership.  He did not
    elaborate on details of the reforms but advised that they
    would be consistent with African standards.

    ¶8.  (SBU) The Minister asserted that Zimbabwe was one of the
    most democratic of African nations by any standard and
    criticized the USG for applying a double standard against
    Zimbabwe.  He noted that the same day the USG condemned a
    Zimbabwean parliamentary by-election (Zengeza) during which
    one person was killed, it accepted the results of a Nigerian
    election in which more than two hundred reportedly were
    killed.  Mutasa said that Zimbabwean voters had "wised up"
    to the opposition's ineffectualness and subservience to the
    West and predicted a clean sweep for the ruling party in
    free and fair elections in March.

    ¶9.  (SBU) Mutasa reported that the GOZ no longer intended to
    submit its elections to Western scrutiny and would not
    include "British and Americans" among those invited to
    observe its March elections.  He proffered an article that
    reported U.S. senators calling for regime change in Zimbabwe
    as evidence of malign USG intentions.  When pressed by Marsh
    on the issue of American observers, he chuckled that he
    would make an exception only for her.

    ¶10.  (SBU) When questioned about Zimbabwe's food security,
    Mutasa said that the GOZ was confident it had enough
    production to meet domestic demand for food.  He conceded
    that estimates could prove wrong, however, and urged that
    the international community be prepared to respond quickly
    should the country later find itself unable to meet its food
    needs.

    The Speaker: Give New Commission a Chance
    -----------------------------------------

    ¶10.  (SBU) At a meeting July 5 in his office at ZANU-PF
    Headquarters (where he is Party Secretary for
    Administration), Speaker of the Parliament Emmerson
    Mnangagwa opened with a long and familiar exposition on the
    history of land reform and bilateral relations.  He
    acknowledged that "mistakes had been made" in the
    implementation of land reform but that the GOZ was working
    hard to redress injustices and maladministration identified
    by the Utete Commission report.  The country was not in the
    process of consolidating gains and focusing on restoring
    production levels through support to new farmers.

    ¶11. (SBU) Turning to elections, Mnangagwa emphasized that
    Zimbabwe had always conducted its elections in timely manner
    and accordance with the Constitution.  He conceded that the
    MDC had presented ZANU-PF with a serious challenge in the
    last national parliamentary elections but that the ruling
    party had responded well.  After recovering four
    parliamentary seats in by-elections since then, the party
    was confident it would do better this time.  Blair's
    statement on the floor of Parliament that exposed his
    government's collaboration with the MDC would hurt the
    opposition's prospects.  Mnangagwa asserted that reversal of
    the country's economic decline would further boost the
    ruling party's prospects.

    ¶12. (SBU) The Speaker briefly described anticipated
    electoral reforms that were consistent with the package
    described by Gula-Ndebele.  He said that the government had
    adopted the proposals, which would be forwarded to the
    appropriate parliamentary portfolio committee before being
    considered by the full legislature.  The committee would
    conduct public hearings on the proposals, on which all
    stakeholders would get an opportunity to offer input.

    ¶13.  (SBU) Mnangagwa conceded that there had been security
    problems in the conduct of some elections, particularly
    since the rise of the opposition in the late 1990's.  Even
    so, elections were much more peaceful than those in the
    early days of independence.  He expressed confidence that
    electoral reforms would address such problems.  The
    independent election commission would deal with
    environmental issues like media access and an election court
    would thresh out disputes fairly and quickly.  He urged that
    the new system be given a chance.  He observed that many
    Zimbabwean families had members from both major parties and
    predicted that Zimbabwe would eventually achieve a non-
    polarized polity like America's, given time.

    Opposition: Borrowed Election Reforms Inadequate
    --------------------------------------------- ---

    ¶14.  (SBU) In a July 1 meeting in the Ambassador's office,
    MDC President Morgan Tsvangirai and Deputy Secretary General
    Gift Chimanikire briefed the staffdel on the opposition's
    situation and posture with respect to elections.  Tsvangirai
    judged that the election's outcome was predetermined,
    regardless of reforms.  The imploding economy, a compromised
    judiciary, inadequate access to media, and a government
    defiant to national and international opinion stacked the
    deck against the MDC.

    ¶15.  (SBU) According to Tsvangirai, the government's
    announced electoral reforms were an admission that the
    existing framework was unfair.  He noted that many of the
    reforms were taken from the MDC's playbook.  Nonetheless,
    the proposals appeared not to address fully the five
    conditions laid out in the MDC "RESTORE" election demand
    document: rule of law (disbanding of militia, de-
    politicization of police); independent election commission;
    restoration of basic rights (repeal of AIPPA, POSA); popular
    confidence in system (adjustments to voting process; and
    integrity of voting secrecy.  The party would continue to
    mobilize domestic and international support for
    implementation of SADC standards.  Tsvangirai reiterated
    that participating in elections without the MDC's conditions
    being met would be futile, and the party would reserve
    decision on a potential boycott.  In the meantime, it would
    continue to collaborate on a platform with civil society,
    whose support he considered crucial.

    ¶16.  (SBU) Tsvangirai recognized the potentially important
    role of churches in effecting change.  He reported that the
    Mutare bishops troika had informed the party of ruling party
    plans on electoral reforms.  The troika had acted as a
    conduit in conveying to ZANU-PF the MDC's election demands
    as set out in RESTORE.

    ¶17.  (SBU) Chimanikire reported on a meeting the previous
    week in South Africa between MDC Secretary General Welshman
    Ncube, Vice President Gibson Sibanda, himself, and South
    African President Mbeki.  The MDC delegation told Mbeki that
    there had been no movement on talks with ZANU-PF.  They
    urged the need to have a joint parliamentary-presidential
    election and for Mugabe to commit to step down.  (Note: The
    next presidential election is slated for 2008.  End note.)
    Mbeki had told them he expected the ZANU-PF politburo by the
    end of June would authorize a negotiating delegation.

    ¶18.  Tsvangirai asserted that Mbeki remained potentially
    crucial but lamented that Mbeki never used the personal
    channel established between them.  He observed that Mbeki
    tended to use indirect means to communicate and had made
    misrepresentations in the past, leading to an "uneasiness"
    between them.  Tsvangirai noted that the party would
    continue to reach out to other African leaders, and that
    Sibanda was seeking meetings with the leaders of Senegal,
    Ghana, Kenya, and the AU.  He urged that the USG maintain
    pressure on Mbeki and others in the region, particularly
    with an eye to next month's scheduled SADC Summit in
    Mauritius.

    ¶19.  (SBU) In a July 3 meeting with the staffdel in his
    home, MDC MP and Secretary for Legal Affairs David Coltart
    elaborated further on election themes.  Some of the proposed
    election reforms would be helpful to the MDC but not
    decisively so.  The party was very cash-strapped and
    handicapped by the ruling party's exploitation of state
    machinery for campaign purposes.  Despite intimidation and
    other challenges, the MDC was remarkably healthy, albeit
    quiet for now.  It was mobilizing for elections, and he
    reported that he had received 100 percent support in a local
    caucus to confirm his candidacy in the upcoming election.

    ¶20.  (SBU) Coltart asserted that the ruling party had no
    intention of allowing the opposition to win more than a few
    token seats in March.  According to Coltart, ruling party
    fears of retribution over massacres during the 1980s and
    vested interests accumulated during the past four years of
    land reform squelched any hope that the party could reform
    itself.  He predicted that its pervasively oppressive
    character would not change regardless of the outcome of
    elections or the health of the opposition.  Even government
    institutions such as the legislature and judiciary would
    remain incapable of exerting independent checks and
    balances.  Only decisive internal and external pressure
    could force change.

    ¶21. (SBU) Coltart characterized ZANU-PF's election platform
    as built on four central lies: the economy was improving; a
    bumper harvest was in; the GOZ was attacking corruption; and
    the MDC was finished.  He claimed that much of the
    international community had bought into some or all of these
    lies.  He emphasized the importance of the international
    community remaining resolute in the face of growing stasis.
    Given the centrality of food manipulation to ruling party
    control of the populace, it was essential that donors
    planned an effective response to the inevitable GOZ plea for
    food aid once the elections were concluded to the ruling
    party's satisfaction.  In this vein, Coltart recognized that
    the truly needy had to be supported but urged that donors
    use their leverage to force the GOZ to open their books, de-
    politicize food, and establish more effective and
    transparent political and economic policies.  He noted that
    the generosity of countries like the United States had
    allowed the regime to survive to date.

    ¶22.  (SBU) In closing, Coltart urged the USG to use United
    Nations organs to press the GOZ.  He sought support for a
    "responsibility to protect" doctrine advocated by the
    Canadian Prime Minister at the most recent UNGA as a
    foundation for responsible humanitarian intervention.

    Civil Society: International Community Must Press
    --------------------------------------------- ----

    ¶23.  (SBU) At a lunch with the staffdel June 30 at USAID, a
    group of prominent NGO representatives offered perspectives
    on the upcoming elections.  Many cast outside engagement as
    potentially decisive in balancing the electoral playing
    field and some credited South African pressure with ZANU-
    PF's proposed reforms.  The upcoming SADC summit could prove
    pivotal to the ruling party's ability to sell its election
    to domestic and international audiences; as such,  it
    offered the international community a point of leverage that
    should be exploited.  Specifically, the USG should press
    individual SADC members to adopt meaningful standards in
    Mauritius.  Of central importance was going beyond election
    administration to address environmental issues like media
    access, freedom to campaign, and political violence.

    ¶24.  (SBU) One participant cited growing tensions within the
    party as contributing to some impetus for reform.  Old
    ideologues who were not genuine reformists were supporting
    reforms for short-term political gain within the context of
    internal personality-driven power struggles.  While Mugabe's
    supremacy was unchallenged, internal party elections and
    power shifts could have a tremendous impact on the conduct
    of future elections and the health of civil society.  That
    said, the ruling party lacked any genuine constituents for
    reform and the witch-hunt atmosphere prevailing under the
    party's counter-corruption efforts was chilling open
    discussion and fueling counter-productive posturing.

    ¶25.  (SBU) Echoing Gula-Ndebele, some noted potential
    constitutional complications associated with the reform
    proposals.  Postponement of elections until June - permitted
    by the Constitution and not without precedent - might be
    advisable.  Representatives recounted a familiar litany of
    problems in the election environment: a climate of impunity
    for violent ruling party supporters, opposition's
    inaccessibility to media outlets, contraction of the
    independent media, Tsvangirai's outstanding treason trial
    verdict, and abuse of food.  Placement of National Youth
    Service graduates ("Green Bombers") throughout the civil
    service and economy to spy on and intimidate the general
    populace was cited as a growing systemic problem.  Domestic
    politics in South Africa presented an additional
    complication: the land issue's continued importance there
    and the fact that many South Africans regarded Mugabe as a
    "messiah" had to weigh heavily in any South African
    politician's calculations on policy toward Zimbabwe.

    Bishops: Still Engaged
    ----------------------

    ¶26. At a dinner with the staffdel at the Ambassador's
    residence June 30, Bishops Trevor Manhanga and Patrick
    Mutume (Bishop Bakare, the troika's third pillar, was unable
    to attend) described their views on elections and related
    issues.  They advised that ZANU-PF Party Chairman John Nkomo
    outlined for them the previous week elements of planned
    electoral reform essentially consistent with reported
    versions.  They also met at length with ZANU-PF Information
    Secretary (and Mugabe confidant) Nathan Shamuyarira at

    SIPDIS
    length.  Nkomo had conceded the procedural and timing
    difficulties presented by the apparent need for a
    constitutional amendment in order to establish an
    independent election commission.  The bishops said any issue
    implicating a schedule for Mugabe's departure appeared
    problematic.

    ¶27. (SBU) The bishops concluded that the reforms were
    "serious" but said that Nkomo was unable to offer specifics
    on key issues, such as the commission's actual independence.
    "Chinamasa (Minister for Justice) is still working on them."
    The bishops were led to believe that current Registrar-
    General Mudede and Minister for Home Affairs Mohadi would
    have no meaningful role in implementing the reformed system.
    ¶28.  (SBU) The bishops advised that they would seek to meet
    with Mbeki and Tanzanian President Mkapa in an effort to
    stimulate more pressure on Mugabe within the SADC community.
    They characterized Mbeki as frustrated; he realized that
    Mugabe did not view him as a peer.  The bishops suggested
    that on a personal level, Mozambican President Chissano and
    Kenneth Kaunda would have better rapport with Mugabe.  Mbeki
    remained a potentially pivotal player, however, and had
    suggested earlier that Mugabe agreed to move a Presidential
    election up to 2005.

    ¶29.  (SBU) The bishops explained that the ruling party's
    proposed electoral reforms were intended principally for
    external consumption but could be complicated by succession
    politics within the ruling party.  ZANU-PF remained a united
    party to the outside world but conflicting aspirations to
    the presidency were fragmenting and paralyzing it within.

    Other Meetings
    --------------

    ¶30.  (SBU) During their visit here, the staffdel also met
    separately with Reserve Bank Governor Gideon Gono (ref A);
    local directors of from World Food Program, World Vision,
    CARE, and Catholic Relief Services; displaced farm workers;
    representatives of Justice for Agriculture; members of the
    Zimbabwe Election Support Network (ZESN); and a bipartisan
    group of parliamentarians.  They also visited a number of
    USAID-funded projects, including business opportunity
    centers, a center to support AIDS orphans, and a clinic that
    promotes the prevention of mother-to-child transmission of
    HIV/AIDS.

    Comment
    -------

    ¶31.  (SBU) The staffdel visit presented a timely opportunity
    to canvass major players on proposed electoral reforms that
    occupy center political stage here.  The wide-ranging
    discussions confirmed our assessment that the government
    assembled its proposals without much formal input from the
    outside but drew significantly from outside ideas - indeed,
    the ESC, the MDC, and South Africa all appear to be in
    position to take some credit.  The opposition and civil
    society appear prepared to engage seriously on the issues
    but are not optimistic that the playing field will be
    leveled.

    ¶32.  (SBU) ACTION REQUEST: We share the view that the ruling
    party's efforts in this area are geared largely to a
    regional audience.  Treatment of election standards at the
    August SADC Summit in Mauritius appears to be a diplomatic
    priority for the GOZ and, as such, a potential point of
    leverage.  In that vein, we would urge renewed USG efforts
    to engage SADC members to have SADC endorse the so-called
    SADC-PF election norms and standards and, either
    individually or as a group, to undertake efforts to press
    the GOZ to address election environment issues (media
    access, freedom to campaign, political violence) beyond the
    proposed electoral reforms.

    ¶33.  (U) The staffdel did not have the opportunity to clear
    this message.

    SULLIVAN

`