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### Viewing cable 07BRASILIA431, BRAZIL: U/S BURNS MEETING WITH PRESIDENTIAL

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
07BRASILIA431 | 2007-03-13 12:34 | 2011-07-11 00:00 | CONFIDENTIAL | Embassy Brasilia

`

    VZCZCXRO3815
    OO RUEHRG
    DE RUEHBR #0431/01 0721234
    ZNY CCCCC ZZH
    O 131234Z MAR 07
    FM AMEMBASSY BRASILIA
    TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 8323
    INFO RUEHAC/AMEMBASSY ASUNCION PRIORITY 5980
    RUEHBO/AMEMBASSY BOGOTA PRIORITY 4143
    RUEHBU/AMEMBASSY BUENOS AIRES PRIORITY 4633
    RUEHCV/AMEMBASSY CARACAS PRIORITY 3633
    RUEHGT/AMEMBASSY GUATEMALA PRIORITY 0340
    RUEHLP/AMEMBASSY LA PAZ PRIORITY 5229
    RUEHPE/AMEMBASSY LIMA PRIORITY 3395
    RUEHMN/AMEMBASSY MONTEVIDEO PRIORITY 6783
    RUEHOT/AMEMBASSY OTTAWA PRIORITY 1027
    RUEHPU/AMEMBASSY PORT AU PRINCE PRIORITY 0184
    RUEHQT/AMEMBASSY QUITO PRIORITY 2164
    RUEHSG/AMEMBASSY SANTIAGO PRIORITY 6128
    RUEHRG/AMCONSUL RECIFE PRIORITY 6337
    RUEHRI/AMCONSUL RIO DE JANEIRO PRIORITY 3984
    RUEHSO/AMCONSUL SAO PAULO PRIORITY 9377
    RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC PRIORITY
    RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC PRIORITY
    RUMIAAA/USCINCSO MIAMI FL PRIORITY
    RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
    RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC PRIORITY

` `

    C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BRASILIA 000431

    SIPDIS

    SIPDIS

    CORRECTED COPY: SIGNATURE LINE ADDED

    E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/11/2017
    TAGS: PREL BR
    SUBJECT: BRAZIL: U/S BURNS MEETING WITH PRESIDENTIAL
    FOREIGN POLICY ADVISOR MARCO AURELIO GARCIA

    Classified By: POLITICAL COUNSELOR DENNIS HEARNE. REASONS: 1.4 (B)(D).

    ¶1. (C) Summary.  U/S Burns and WHA A/S Shannon, in Brasilia
    for strategic dialogue talks with the Brazilian Foreign
    Ministry (MRE), joined with Ambassador, PolCounselor and
    S/P officer William McIlhenny to meet on
    February 7 with Marco Aurelio Garcia, President Lula da
    Silva's international affairs advisor.  Garcia was
    accompanied by his senior deputy, Marcel Biato. U/S Burns
    provided an overview of the transition in USG global
    strategy toward focus on building relations with regional
    powers like Brazil, and noted the importance of
    collaboration on bio-fuels to this relationship.  Brazilian
    views on developments in the region and Cuba also were
    focal points of the discussion.  In the region, Garcia said
    there is a consensus on integration among disparate but
    democratically elected governments that facilitates
    communication and limits conflict.  Brazil does not admire
    Hugo Chavez's political model, but needs to pursue good
    relations with Venezuela as part of a foreign
    policy driven by Brazil's vital interests and
    domestic economic priorities.  In Cuba, it is clear Fidel
    is fading rapidly and permanently, but transition scenarios
    are hard to predict.  The largest step the U.S. could take
    to encourage a peaceful transition to democracy would be
    elimination of sanctions, Garcia said. End summary.

    THE REGION

    ¶2. (C) U/S Burns outlined for Garcia the ongoing shift in
    USG strategic focus away from a Europe and
    toward increased engagement with major and emerging
    regional powers, including Brazil.  U.S.-Brazil cooperation
    in Haiti and the promising bilateral collaboration on
    bio-fuels are building blocks for this enhanced
    relationship.  The USG also values Brazilian insights on
    regional affairs.  In that context, U/S Burns invited
    Garcia to share his views on developments in the region,
    especially in Venezuela, Bolivia and Cuba -- all countries
    Garcia has visited frequently as Lula's special envoy.

    ¶3. (C) Garcia said South America has been undergoing a
    major transformation in the past several years, with
    democratically elected governments seeking economic
    recovery and growth, while also addressing grave social
    problems.  There has been at least a general consensus in
    the region on the importance of integration, and that has
    permitted countries with disparate political situations and
    ethnic cultures to work together on many issues.  While
    there is still conflict, communication is more the norm,
    Garcia said.

    ¶4. (C) With Venezuela, Brazil has worked to maintain a
    positive dialogue, focusing on points of convergence,
    e.g., joint projects in infrastructure and energy.  On the
    political level, "We do not agree with Chavez's path, and
    it is not the one we chose," Garcia declared, echoing a
    similar statement made by FM Amorim in a meeting with U/S
    Burns earlier in the day.  That said, Garcia said it needs
    to be recognized that "Chavez is a product of Venezuela's
    crisis, not its cause."

    ¶5. (C) Brazil's relationship with Argentina is "strategic,"
    and is analogous in some ways to the Franco-German
    relationship in Europe -- i.e., sometimes tense, but
    crucial for regional stability and progress.  Relations
    with Chile are similarly important and growing, Garcia
    said, as are Brazil's relations with Colombia.  Indeed,
    Brazil is practicing "variable geometry diplomacy" in the

    BRASILIA 00000431  002 OF 002

    region, adjusting and shifting constantly to build and
    exploit opportunities in a foreign policy that is still
    mainly driven by domestic priorities, he added.

    CUBA

    ¶6. (C) Turning to Cuba, Garcia noted that his deputy
    advisor, Marcel Biato, had just returned from five months
    as Brazil's charge d'affaires in Havana, and his views were
    incorporated in Garcia's perspective.  Garcia said the GOB
    believes it is highly unlikely Fidel Castro will ever
    return to exercise real power.  The waning of Fidel over
    the past year had caused the Cuban population to begin
    contemplating a different future, but everyone has
    difficulty imagining what that future will look like,
    Garcia said.  Cuba, in the past forty years, had a system
    built on a single charismatic figure, and that is not
    sustainable.  Raul Castro is not his brother and seems more
    inclined to take a committee approach to leadership that is
    pragmatic, at least on economic issues.  Garcia was
    doubtful Cuba can replicate the "China model" with economic
    opening but continued centralized political control.
    "China is a civilization, Cuba is not... they do not have
    the patience, resources or organization" to emulate China's
    approach," he opined.  Moreover, Cuba today lacks an
    "economic vocation," and has not been able to place its
    tourism industry, its medical capacity or its bare handful
    of other productive sectors into a strategy for
    productivity or increased self reliance.  Brazil wants to
    help, and is offering to provide both assistance and
    markets for Cuba, but the Cubans have to define a direction
    for themselves, Garcia said.

    ¶7. (C) Asked by U/S Burns about Brazil's views on Chavez's
    role in Cuba's transition, Garcia said that Cuba and
    Venezuela in the near term are mutually dependent (i.e.,
    "oil exchanged for expertise"), but Fidel's passing will
    leave a vacuum Chavez will try to fill.  However, Chavez's
    brand
    of strident populism "has less space to grow in Latin
    America than you may think," Garcia said, and could be
    curtailed if Cubans perceived other openings -- especially
    if the U.S. lifted sanctions on their economy.  This would
    be the single biggest step the U.S. could take in easing
    the transition in Cuba toward a positive direction, Garcia
    opined.  Conversely, the U.S. needs to avoid public
    recommendations to Cubans about their political future,
    since Cubans' traditional nationalism and sensitivity to
    U.S. influence assure negative reactions.

    ¶8. (C) A/S Shannon said the United States has tried to
    assume a careful, low-key position in public on the Cuban
    transition, but the U.S. believes that others in the region
    need to speak out for democracy there. If a transitional
    government could take certain concrete steps -- e.g.,
    release of political prisoners -- the positive reaction
    within the U.S. would be considerable. But someone
    other than the U.S. must pressure Cuban leaders toward such
    actions, he said.
    CHICOLA

`