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### Viewing cable 08BRASILIA1330, BRAZIL: BRAZIL MUNICIPAL ELECTIONS: FIRST ROUND

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
08BRASILIA1330 | 2008-10-07 20:42 | 2011-07-11 00:00 | UNCLASSIFIED | Embassy Brasilia

`

    VZCZCXRO0551
    RR RUEHRG
    DE RUEHBR #1330/01 2812042
    ZNR UUUUU ZZH
    R 072042Z OCT 08
    FM AMEMBASSY BRASILIA
    TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 2609
    INFO RUEHAC/AMEMBASSY ASUNCION 7117
    RUEHBO/AMEMBASSY BOGOTA 4755
    RUEHBU/AMEMBASSY BUENOS AIRES 5858
    RUEHCV/AMEMBASSY CARACAS 4271
    RUEHLP/AMEMBASSY LA PAZ 6633
    RUEHPE/AMEMBASSY LIMA 3986
    RUEHMN/AMEMBASSY MONTEVIDEO 7561
    RUEHQT/AMEMBASSY QUITO 2621
    RUEHSG/AMEMBASSY SANTIAGO 0633
    RUEHRG/AMCONSUL RECIFE 8557
    RUEHRI/AMCONSUL RIO DE JANEIRO 6721
    RUEHSO/AMCONSUL SAO PAULO 2876

` `

    UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 BRASILIA 001330

    SIPDIS

    DEPARTMENT FOR BSC

    E.O. 12958: N/A
    TAGS: PGOV BR
    SUBJECT: BRAZIL: BRAZIL MUNICIPAL ELECTIONS: FIRST ROUND
    SHOWS STRENGTH OF INCUMBENCY, GOVERNING PARTY GOING INTO
    2010 PRESIDENTIAL RACE

    REF: A. BRASILIA 01320
         ¶B. SAO PAULO 00536

    ¶1. (U) Summary: During local elections held on Sunday,
    October 5, in over 5500 Brazilian cities and towns (but not
    in Brasilia, as the DF has a governor but no mayor),
    Brazilians voted for mayors and city councils peacefully
    without incident.  In state capitals they generally
    re-elected mayors or sent them to the second round.  Although
    President Lula's Workers Party (PT) and the Brazilian
    Democratic Movement party (PMDB- Brazil's Largest,
    non-ideological party, which is a member of the governing
    coalition) did not gain a substantial number of mayoralties
    over 2004, they are the big winners of the first round
    because the Brazilian Social Democracy Party (PSDB) and the
    Democrats (DEMs), the main opposition parties, both lost
    ground.  The DEMs lost their traditional place as one of
    Brazil's four largest parties, at least in terms of mayors
    elected. Although Lula could not consistently translate his
    immense popularity into strong first-round electoral
    victories, the PT may have done well enough to strengthen his
    preferred candidate for 2010, Dilma Rouseff.  Her most likely
    opponent, Sao Paulo governor Jose Serra, received a boost
    when the Sao Paulo mayoral candidate he backed made it into
    the second round (Ref b).  Observers will look closely at the
    second round voting on Sunday October 26, particularly in Sao
    Paulo, as a signpost for the prospects of candidates and
    parties in the 2010 presidential race.  End
    summary.

    -------------
    Key Matchups
    -------------

    ¶2. (U) In Sao Paulo, incumbent Mayor Gilberto Kassab (DEM),
    the candidate backed by state governor Jose Serra (PSDB),
    surprised pundits by besting both PSDB candidate Gerald
    Alckmin and PT candidate, Marta Suplicy, a former SP mayor
    and Lula Tourism Minister.  The Kassab win signals strong
    support for state governor Jose Serra among Social Democrats
    and probably ensures Serra's presidential candidacy for the
    party in 2010.  Kassab could well pull off a final round
    victory, which would be seen as a major defeat for Lula. But
    the fact that Sao Paulo is a PT stronghold and Lula,s
    overall popularity is high mean that this is no sure bet (see
    Ref B for additional analysis).

    ¶3. (U) In Belo Horizonte Marcio Lacerda (PSB), the candidate
    backed by Minas Gerais governor and potential presidential
    candidate Aecio Neves (PSDB), saw his support drop in the
    last week, and he will now go into a second round against
    Leonard Quintao (PMDB).  This poorer-than-expected showing,
    along with the loss by Alckmin in Sao Paulo, whom Neves also
    supported, has weakened Neves's prospects as a potential PSDB
    candidate for 2010.

    ¶4. (SBU)  In Rio de Janeiro, Federal Deputy Fernando Gabeira
    of the Green Party, known for his role in the 1969 kidnapping
    of US Ambassador Burke, made it into the second round.
    Gabeira has expressed public regret for
    his participation in the kidnapping and has and has renounced
    recourse to such illegal acts.  Even so, the USG continues to
    deny him a visa to the U.S.  The Mission has already received
    press inquiries about his status vis-a-vis the United States.
     Gabeira is now a crusader for ethical government and
    environmentalism.

    ¶5. (U) In Recife, as expected, PT candidate Joo da Costa won
    outright (with over 51% of the vote), even though a lower
    court disqualified him from running for office in December
    for alleged campaign violations.  Da Costa could continue to
    run because his case is on appeal, but it is still not
    certain whether he will be able to take office.

    -----------------------
    National Implications
    -----------------------

    BRASILIA 00001330  002 OF 003

    ¶7. (U) In the 26 state capitals, the 15 first-round victories
    mostly went to incumbents or their surrogates, and elsewhere
    incumbents who were running generally made it into the second
    round.  In capitals, incumbents from President Lula's
    Workers' Party won or went on to round two, with six
    first-round wins, more than any other party.  Analysts noted
    that the results show incumbents used the resources and power
    of incumbency effectively to gain re-election.

    ¶8. (U) The PT, PMDB and PSDB are the big winners as far as
    the parties go.  The PT won 13 major cities (population of
    200,000 or more) and is in second-round contention in 15
    more.  The PMDB has won ten major cities and is contesting
    the second round in ten.  The PSDB has won 9 cities and
    contests in the second round in ten more.  As expected, the
    PMDB appears on track to carry the majority of municipalities
    country-wide.  The PT and its allies are contending in the
    second round in 18 of Brazil,s 20 state capitals.  The good
    PT showing lays a good base for Dilma Rousseff, as President
    Lula,s preferred candidate to succeed him, to launch her
    campaign to be the PT nominee for 2010.

    ¶9. (U) Although Lula's Workers Party (PT) and the Brazilian
    Democratic Movement party (PMDB- Brazil's largest party and a
    member of the governing coalition) did not gain a substantial
    number of mayoralties over 2004 (473 versus 411 in 2004 for
    the PT; 1,065 versus 1,059 in 2004 for the PMDB), the
    Brazilian Social Democracy Party (PSDB) and the Democrats
    both lost ground (664 versus 870 in 2004 for the PSDB; 432
    versus 790 in 2004 for the Democrats).  The Democrats
    actually fell from their traditional perch among Brazil's
    four biggest  parties, at least in terms of mayors elected.
    Overall, the PT won in urban areas with a combined total of
    almost 19 million voters among the major cities, versus the
    PMDB, which did so in cities with a combined 14 million
    voters, and the PSDB in cities with a combined 8 million.
    Although it did modestly well nationally, the only major city
    where the PSDB won was in Curitiba, which has the sixth
    largest electorate in Brazil.

    ¶10. (U) Observers will be watching the second round of voting
    closely to see who gains strength for the 2010 presidential
    race, already well under way informally.  In Sao Paulo, a
    Kassab victory would boost Serra and be a major defeat to
    Lula and the PT.  A victory by Suplicy, on the other hand,
    would boost the PT's chances.  In Belo Horizonte, a
    second-round victory by Lacerda would help Aecio Neves, but
    would not overcome the advantage conveyed to Serra by a
    Kassab win in Sao Paulo.  Some analysts see think Neves could
    switch from the PSDB to the PMDB, making him a viable running
    mate for Serra.  Nationally, each party's showing in large
    cities will be seen as both an indication of their popularity
    heading into 2010.  More importantly, control over
    municipalities provides resources that can help a party
    mobilize for the national election.

    ---------------------------------------------
    Few Incidents, as Military is Deployed to Provide Security
    ---------------------------------------------

    ¶10. (U) The president of the Superior Electoral Court
    reported no significant incidents during voting.  Federal
    troops were deployed in 460 towns and cities (a figure,
    according to news reports, 25 percent higher than in 2004) to
    guarantee public security during voting, most significantly
    in Rio de Janeiro, where over 4,000 troops were stationed in
    the city's large favelas (slums) to ensure that organized
    crime gangs did not disrupt or attempt to direct voting.

    ¶11. (U) One day after the elections, the state of Pernambuco
    saw more than 10,000 protesters clash with military police
    from the state as rumors spread throughout the town of
    Vitoria de Santo Antao that votes were left uncounted, and
    that this may have derailed the election of the Brazilian
    Socialist Party (PSB) candidate for mayor, who lost by 232
    votes.  About 40 people were arrested.

    BRASILIA 00001330  003 OF 003

    SOBEL

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