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### Viewing cable 06MANAGUA2537, SIT REP 7 - NICARAGUAN ELECTIONS

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
06MANAGUA2537 | 2006-11-17 21:42 | 2011-06-01 08:00 | CONFIDENTIAL | Embassy Managua

Appears in these articles:
http://www.nacion.com/2011-05-30/Mundo/NotasSecundarias/Mundo2758456.aspx
http://www.nacion.com/2011-05-30/Mundo/NotasSecundarias/Mundo2758467.aspx
http://www.nacion.com/2011-05-30/Mundo/NotasSecundarias/Mundo2758468.aspx
http://www.nacion.com/2011-05-30/Mundo/NotasSecundarias/Mundo2758464.aspx
http://www.confidencial.com.ni/articulo/4103/la-embusa-y-el-gabinete-de-ortega
http://www.confidencial.com.ni/articulo/4104/d-rsquo-escoto-en-onu-ldquo-un-desafio-de-ortega-a-ee-uu-rdquo
http://www.confidencial.com.ni/articulo/4102/estrada-y-la-ldquo-doble-cara-rdquo-ante-ee-uu
http://www.confidencial.com.ni/articulo/3966/la-ldquo-injerencia-rdquo-de-ee-uu-en-el-2006
http://www.nacion.com/2011-05-23/Mundo/Relacionados/Mundo2758764.aspx
http://www.nacion.com/2011-05-23/Mundo/NotaPrincipal/Mundo2758753.aspx
http://www.confidencial.com.ni/articulo/4041/millones-de-dolares-sin-control-y-a-discrecion
http://www.confidencial.com.ni/articulo/4040/la-ldquo-injerencia-rdquo-de-venezuela-en-2006
http://www.confidencial.com.ni/articulo/4047/rodrigo-barreto-enviado-de-ldquo-vacaciones-rdquo
http://www.nacion.com/2011-05-16/Mundo/NotasSecundarias/Mundo2757239.aspx
http://www.nacion.com/2011-05-16/Mundo/NotaPrincipal/Mundo2746658.aspx
http://www.nacion.com/2011-05-16/Mundo/Relacionados/Mundo2757244.aspx
http://www.nacion.com/2011-05-16/Mundo/Relacionados/Mundo2746673.aspx
http://www.confidencial.com.ni/articulo/3991/dra-yadira-centeno-desmiente-cable-diplomatico-eeuu
http://www.confidencial.com.ni/articulo/3968/pellas-pronostico-a-eeuu-victoria-de-ortega-en-2006
http://www.confidencial.com.ni/articulo/3967/barreto-era-ldquo-fuente-confiable-rdquo-para-eeuu

`

    VZCZCXRO2832
    PP RUEHLMC
    DE RUEHMU #2537/01 3212142
    ZNY CCCCC ZZH
    P 172142Z NOV 06
    FM AMEMBASSY MANAGUA
    TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 8231
    INFO RUEHZA/WHA CENTRAL AMERICAN COLLECTIVE
    RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
    RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC
    RUEHLMC/MILLENNIUM CHALLENGE CORP WASHDC
    RHEHNSC/NSC WASHINGTON DC

` `

    C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MANAGUA 002537

    SIPDIS

    SIPDIS

    DEPT FOR WHA/CEN

    E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/17/2016
    TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR KDEM NU
    SUBJECT: SIT REP 7 - NICARAGUAN ELECTIONS

    REF: MANAGUA 2531 AND PREVIOUS

    Classified By: Ambassador Paul Trivelli for reasons 1.4 (b and d)

    ¶1. (U) Summary: With the deadline to submit formal complaints
    regarding the vote count fast approaching at midnight on
    November 17, the political parties are rushing to check the
    official numbers against the results provided by their poll
    watchers -- a task made especially arduous because the
    Supreme Electoral Council (CSE) has refused to provide
    parties or observers with an electronic version of the
    results.  The CSE has already admitted to major counting
    errors in Masaya.  Movimiento por Nicaragua (MpN) criticized
    the slow pace of the CSE's release of results, and called on
    the Council to respect the will of the people when allocating
    National Assembly seats.  Liberal Constitutional Party (PLC)
    Presidential candidate Jose Rizo has publicly blamed the
    PLC-Sandinista Liberation Front (FSLN) pact for the FSLN's
    victory and called for a full reorganization of the PLC
    leadership structure, including the withdrawal of Arnoldo
    Aleman from political life.  End Summary.

    CSE Refuses to Share Actas
    - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

    ¶2. (SBU) The CSE released the final provisional results to
    the media on November 15 (reftel), giving the parties until
    midnight on November 17 to register any formal complaints
    regarding vote tallies.  The parties are comparing their
    results (actas) with the official CSE results, but are
    inhibited by the CSE's refusal to release the final results
    electronically.  The CSE previously released a DVD with over
    60 percent of the actas and posted over 91 percent of the
    actas on its web site for only about one day before removing
    them.

    ¶3. (C) The parties have alerted local and international
    observer groups of the CSE's unwillingness to share the final
    data with them. (Comment: The CSE has also refused to release
    the actas to observer groups.  CSE chief of staff Rodrigo
    Barreto told poloff that the CSE will not provide the DVDs
    because party poll watchers are using copies of CSE-provided
    actas to file complaints instead of their own original
    copies, which they must submit according to CSE regulations.
    End Comment.)

    CSE Admits Mistakes in Masaya
    - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

    ¶4. (U) Following an ALN press conference revealing major
    inconsistencies in the departmental deputy vote count in
    Masaya (reftel), the CSE released a statement admitting the
    errors.  Masaya Departmental Electoral Council (CED)
    president Thelma Espinosa explained that the results of
    certain municipalities had been omitted from the CED's
    official tally.  The corrected count added thousands of votes
    to the totals for the ALN, FSLN and PLC, but do not appear to
    change the outcome of the allotment of deputy seats for
    Masaya.  (Comment: ALN chief poll watcher Carlos Garcia
    informed polcouns that the final results will probably not
    alter the outcome for the ALN.  End Comment.)

    MpN Criticizes Slow Pace of Results
    - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

    ¶5. (U) The Movimiento por Nicaragua (MpN) released a
    statement on November 16 criticizing the CSE for the slow
    publication of vote results and the delay in defining the
    distribution of National Assembly seats.  MpN publicly
    wondered why the CSE took eight days to release the final
    eight percent of results after counting 92 percent in the
    first three days.  MpN encouraged the political parties to
    issue formal complaints regarding inaccurate or manipulated
    results and urged the CSE to "respect the will of the people"
    when deciding the final distribution of National Assembly
    seats.

    ¶6. (SBU) MpN also urged the new deputies-elect to appoint
    qualified candidates for the Supreme Court and National
    Prosecutor's office (Fiscalia).  (Comment: Emboffs have been
    working with civil society groups to pressure the National
    Assembly to select qualified candidates for the governmental
    institutions subject to Assembly appointments.  Civil society
    pressure resulted in the current Assembly's postponing the
    selection of new justices and Fiscalia officials until the
    newly-elected representatives can make the decision next
    year.  End Comment.)

    MANAGUA 00002537  002 OF 002

    Rizo Calls for Aleman's Resignation
    - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

    ¶7. (U) The internal PLC power struggles heated up on November
    16 when PLC Presidential candidate Jose Rizo called for PLC
    leader Arnoldo Aleman's withdrawal from the party.  Rizo
    blamed Aleman for the FSLN victory, stating that the PLC
    should never have agreed to lower the threshold for a first
    round victory from 45 percent to 35 percent.  He claimed that
    "intransigent attitudes" within the PLC drove the creation of
    the ALN and the defection of many PLC members to the new
    party.  Rizo called for the "complete and total" renovation
    of PLC leadership.

    Meeting with ET and NDI
    - - - - - - - - - - - -

    ¶8. (C)  In Ambassador's November 16 meeting with National
    Democratic Institute (NDI) country director Deborah Ullmer
    and Etica y Transparencia (ET) director Roberto Courtney,
    they shared ET's analysis of the assignment of National
    Assembly deputy seats (based on 94.94% of the JRVs tallied).
    Courtney explained that ET's numbers coincide closely to the
    CSE's, except that ET results suggest that the MRS should
    have a sixth seat and the FSLN should have 37 seats, not 38.
    He acknowledged, however, that the ET count did not obtain
    adequate information to fully assess the results in
    Chinandega, Managua, Granada, Matagalpa, RAAN, and RAAS,
    given the closeness of the races in those departments.
    (Note:  The PLC says it will challenge a seat in RAAN, while
    the ALN expects to challenge seats in Chinandega and Managua.
     End Note.)

    ¶9. (C) Courtney voiced concern that the CSE's final
    provisional results by JRV had not been posted on the CSE's
    web page. When he learned from us that the ALN and MRS had
    not received the diskettes with this information, he was
    alarmed, claiming that he had assumed the CSE had provided
    the parties the information when it announced the results on
    November 15.  Courtney suggested that the parties call for an
    extension of the November 17 deadline for parties to submit
    appeals regarding the election results.  He commented that
    observers cannot intercede on behalf of the parties unless
    the parties inform them of their problems; he promised to
    follow up with the ALN and MRS on the matter.  (Note: We
    heard since that Courtney had talked to the ALN and MRS and
    offered to assist them -- including providing the ALN with a
    number of the 51 actas it is missing.  End Note.)

    ALN intends to submit appeals before the midnight deadline
    - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

    ¶10.  (C)  ALN administrator Kitty Monterrey confirmed with
    polcouns on November 17 that she had met with Courtney and ET
    had provided the ALN 29 of the 51 actas the ALN was missing.
    She added that the ALN will submit all of its appeals before
    the CSE in advance of the November 17 midnight deadline.
    According to Monterrey, the ALN will include not only its
    appeals regarding Assembly seat allocations in some of the
    departments and on the national level, but also, its overall
    observations of the irregularities it has detected in the
    vote tally process.  She will share an electronic summary of
    the ALN's report.

    Comment
    - - - -

    ¶11. (C) The CSE's refusal to provide the parties with a final
    electronic version of the actas has greatly impeded their
    ability to compare vote results.  The significant
    inconsistencies (in Masaya, for example) and blatant attempts
    at manipulation (in Carazo, for example -- see reftel)
    suggest that the parties have ample reason to be suspicious
    of the official CSE results.  We will continue to monitor the
    situation and facilitate communication between the parties
    and observer groups.
    TRIVELLI

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