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### Viewing cable 06QUITO2094, NORTHERN BORDER PROVINCES TILTING TOWARD ROLDOS

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
06QUITO2094 | 2006-08-21 21:30 | 2011-05-02 00:00 | UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY | Embassy Quito

`

    VZCZCXYZ0034
    OO RUEHWEB

    DE RUEHQT #2094/01 2332130
    ZNR UUUUU ZZH
    O 212130Z AUG 06
    FM AMEMBASSY QUITO
    TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 5078
    INFO RUEHBO/AMEMBASSY BOGOTA PRIORITY 5891
    RUEHCV/AMEMBASSY CARACAS PRIORITY 1947
    RUEHLP/AMEMBASSY LA PAZ AUG 0023
    RUEHPE/AMEMBASSY LIMA PRIORITY 0876
    RUEHGL/AMCONSUL GUAYAQUIL PRIORITY 1000
    RHMFISS/CDR USSOUTHCOM MIAMI FL

` `

    UNCLAS QUITO 002094

    SIPDIS

    SENSITIVE
    SIPDIS

    E.O. 12958: N/A
    TAGS: PGOV PREL EC
    SUBJECT: NORTHERN BORDER PROVINCES TILTING TOWARD ROLDOS

    REF: QUITO 001588

    ¶1.  (U) Summary: The northern provinces of Imbabura and
    Carchi are strongholds of the Democratic Left (ID) party and,
    in Imbabura, the indigenous movement.  Predictably, Leon
    Roldos is the acknowledged front runner in presidential
    elections.  There is little agreement among key actors over
    which presidential contender follows Roldos, reflecting
    provincial politics fractured between indigenous groups and
    other national parties and local movements, and widespread
    rural poverty fueling homegrown political populism.  During a
    recent visit, we also heard differing views of the status of
    electoral preparations and the potential for electoral fraud.
     End Summary.

    Background
    ----------

    ¶2.  (U) PolOffs continued the Embassy's democracy outreach
    (see Reftel) with visits to the central highland and northern
    border provinces of Imbabura and Carchi on August 8-10.
    PolOffs met with members of the press, local government
    officials, NGOs and party leaders.  In all private and public
    events, PolOffs stressed the importance of ensuring free,
    fair, transparent and inclusive elections and highlighted USG
    support to the region.

    ¶3.  (U) Every person we spoke with in Carchi province (which
    borders Colombia) painted a depressing view of deteriorating
    social and economic conditions in the province.  Officials
    believe rampant illegal Colombian immigration uniformly
    brings crime and poverty to Carchi. Dollarization was
    repeatedly blamed for making Ecuadorian goods and labor more
    expensive than Colombian goods and labor (note: Ecuadorian
    gasoline, however, is still much cheaper).  Extortion in the
    form of a "tax" from anonymous criminal elements has become
    rampant and largely unreported.  There is little investment
    or capital; four of seven banks have closed.  Ecuadorians are
    fleeing the province.  Some officials believe the
    international community has forgotten the province,
    complaining that Cotacachi municipality, in Imbabura
    province, has support from 60 NGOS while Tulcan only has one.
     When PolOffs pointed out specific significant projects
    funded by USAID in Carchi, Tulcan municipal officials said
    they had thought the programs were funded by the United
    Nations.  Former general and Carchi Prefect Rene Yandun (ID)
    asserted that the hopelessness, lack of security and emptying
    province pose a substantial risk to Ecuador's national
    security.

    ¶4.  (U) Imbabura officials were a bit more upbeat than their
    counterparts in Carchi.  They acknowledged USG assistance in
    many areas.  The populist themes of decentralization,
    employment and corruption, were all common refrains, but with
    little in the way of substantive proposals.  The prefect
    (U.S. governor-equivalent) said that personality, more than
    ideology, was the major issue in the elections.

    Electoral Trends
    ----------------

    ¶5.  (U) Imbabura is a mountainous province with a rural
    indigenous population of approximately 40% of its 344,000
    inhabitants.  It is home to the major highland indigenous
    cities of Otavalo and Cotacachi, which draw many tourists for
    their local attractions and handicrafts.  Eleven percent of
    the population is Afro-Ecuadorian, concentrated mostly in the
    Chota valley area, which produced most of the members of
    Ecuador's very successful World Cup national soccer team.
    All agree Democratic Left (ID) party machinery is strong;
    however, election results contradict the conventional wisdom.
     A popular ID defector allied with the PRIAN (Roldosista
    Institutional Renewal Party) to win the province-wide
    prefecture (U.S. governor-equivalent) in 2004.  His ID
    challenger came in second and the indigenous Pachakutik
    (MUPP-NP) candidate a distant third.  None of Imbabura's
    current congressional deputies are ID: one is Pachakutik, one
    is presidential candidate for the Democratic Revindication
    Movement (MRD) Marco Proano, and the other deputy is a one
    man political party.  The province's 2002 presidential
    returns were consistent with Ecuador as a whole, giving 26%
    of the vote to Lucio Gutierrez and 23% to Alvaro Noboa in the
    first round and electing Gutierrez resoundingly in the
    second.

    ¶6.  (U) The northern border province of Carchi is less
    populous and less indigenous than Imbabura and more reliably
    an ID stronghold.  Of its 153,000 inhabitants, none are rural
    indigenous, although 11% are Afro-Ecuadorian (again from the
    Chota valley area, which forms the border between the two
    provinces).  In the prefecture race of 2004, the ID candidate
    handily beat his challenger (who formed an alliance of five
    little known parties) 41% to 20%.  The mayor of Tulcan, the
    only principal urban area, located on the border with
    Colombia, also hails from the ID.  In the presidential
    elections, however, the top vote-getter in the first round
    was coastal populist Alvaro Noboa with 29%.  The ID
    candidate, Rodrigo Borja, came in second with 23%.  A local
    political entity, the Independent Work and Democracy Movement
    (MITD), has recently become the main competitor of the ID in
    Carchi province.

    Election Officials Sanguine about Fraud
    ---------------------------------------

    ¶7.  (U) Imbabura electoral, government and party officials
    were generally satisfied with electoral preparations.
    Electoral tribunal officials did not express any needs or
    worries about the process and welcomed the possible
    participation in their province of international observers.
    They proudly described a rural democracy education drive
    which presented seminars in remote villages to voters.
    Electoral officials also claimed a pilot electronic vote
    project tested in Otavalo in 2004 had been a great success.
    Unfortunately, due to a scheduling conflict with elections in
    Brazil, electronic voting would not take place this year as
    it would rely on Brazilian machinery.  No official we spoke
    to believed electoral fraud was likely.

    ¶8.  (U) Carchi officials were similarly positive about the
    pace of preparations and dismissive of any possibility for
    fraud, highlighting their own rural outreach efforts and a
    democracy library they hoped would become more interactive.
    They requested a photocopier and computers for the library
    and like their neighbors in Imbabura, welcomed the prospect
    of international election observers.

    Election Watchdog Groups More Concerned
    ---------------------------------------

    ¶9.  (U) Meanwhile, the major NGO operating in the two
    provinces, Citizen Participation (PC), had a much more
    pessimistic view of election preparations and the
    opportunities for fraud.  In both provinces, PC reported a
    significant risk of fraud, supplying anecdotes from
    observations in the 2004 municipal elections.  One volunteer
    who had counted the ballots in one polling station later
    learned that a much different number appeared in the final
    tally.  Another volunteer caught an election worker
    surreptitiously marking votes that had been turned in blank.
    One enterprising candidate in Imbabura had supplied rural
    voters with a left rubber boot before the election and
    promised to deliver the right boots after he won.  The
    Imbabura PC representative ridiculed the electoral tribunal's
    rural democracy seminars; he heard that several passed
    unattended.  PC representatives in both provinces said they
    had nearly ecruited all the volunteers they needed for their
    own observation efforts.

    ¶10.  (U) In Carchi province, the leaders of the local
    political movement, MITD, expressed concern that they might
    suffer as a result of their lack of representation on the
    provincial tribunal, despite being the second most powerful
    party in the province.  (Note:  by law, the top seven
    political parties at the national level in the last elections
    are represented on the tribunals.  Only parties, not
    movements, are represented.)

    Female Candidate Quota Open to Interpretation
    ---------------------------------------------

    ¶11.  (U) Although no one we met openly opposed the 45% quota
    for female candidates in this election, electoral tribunal
    officials from both provinces said the rule was open to
    interpretation (as to how to alternate between male
    and females on candidate lists).  Some electoral officials
    claimed that many women are not interested in participating
    as political candidates.  The Cotacachi municipal council VP,
    Patricia Espinoza, vehemently disagreed with that view.  She
    believed the quota rule would be widely misapplied in
    Ecuador, hurting women's representation.  For example, some
    parties would place women low on their candidate lists,
    virtually ruling out their prospects for election.  Espinoza
    said she is active in a growing movement of female
    politicians who are pressing national election authorities to
    properly implement the quota.

    Presidential Predictions Varied
    -------------------------------

    ¶12.  (SBU) The only consistent prediction for the upcoming
    elections was agreement that the ID as a party and Leon
    Roldos as its supported candidate would do well in both
    provinces.  In Carchi, most believed the MITD will come in
    second to the ID in both presidential and congressional
    balloting.  Cynthia Viteri (PSC) and Rafael Correa (PAIS) are
    the only candidates who have already campaigned in Carchi
    thus far.  (Note: the formal campaign period opens on August
    29.)  MITD leaders endorsed Viteri during her visit.

    ¶13.  (SBU) In Imbabura, the PRIAN prefect claimed Noboa and
    Roldos were leading the presidential sweepstakes and that
    congressional seats would be divided among their followers.
    The ID congressional candidate in Imbabura, however, believed
    that Rafael Correa was the current leader, followed by
    Roldos.  He was adamant that Cynthia Viteri and Alvaro Noboa
    were weak in Imbabura and the congressional seats would be
    split between the ID, Correa's PAIS and the Ecuadorian
    Roldosista Party (PRE - despite the name, not linked to
    Roldos).  Cotacachi municipal council VP Espinoza, whose
    municipality is heavily indigenous and pro-Pachakutik,
    lamented the fracturing of the leftist vote, saying
    Pachakutik was poised at the brink of disaster.

    Public Outreach Events
    ----------------------

    ¶14.  (U) PolOff took questions from the press in both Carchi
    and Imbabura and gave a radio interview in Imbabura on August
    ¶10.  Questions from the press focused on the reason for the
    visit and how the USG views preparations for elections.  The
    radio interview covered a broad range of topics.  We
    emphasized USG wishes to help strengthen democracy in
    Ecuador, our broad relationship beyond commercial issues and
    stressed our theme for these outreach visits: vote and vote
    wisely.

    Comment
    -------

    ¶15.  (U) Votes from Imbabura and Carchi made up only 3 and
    1%, respectively, in the 2002 elections.  Though not the most
    populous region in Ecuador, the visit to this corner of the
    country highlighted several broader trends.  Social and
    economic woes underlie these elections in many parts of the
    country, fueling populist appeals.  While national parties
    reach these parts of the country, often local movements or
    personalities sway the voters more.  The ID and Roldos will
    likely do well in this region but fractured politics and
    socio-economic problems will challenge any candidate who wins.
    JEWELL

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