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### Viewing cable 05ROME3585, SCENESETTER FOR PM BERLUSCONI'S OCTOBER 31 MEETING

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
05ROME3585 | 2005-10-26 10:29 | 2010-12-02 13:00 | CONFIDENTIAL | Embassy Rome

`

    This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

` `

    C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ROME 003585

    SIPDIS

    E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/26/2015
    TAGS: PREL PGOV CVIS IT ITALY NATIONAL ELECTIONS ITALIAN POLITICS IRAQI FREEDOM
    SUBJECT: SCENESETTER FOR PM BERLUSCONI'S OCTOBER 31 MEETING
    WITH THE PRESIDENT

    Classified By: Ambassador Spogli, for reasons 1.4 (b)(d).

    ¶1. (C) Summary. PM Berlusconi specifically requested this
    meeting, and a spring address to a joint session of Congress,
    to bolster his prospects in Italy's April elections. Behind
    in the polls and facing his toughest campaign, Berlusconi
    will juxtapose his proactive and pro-U.S.foreign policy with
    that of his likely center-left opponent, Romano Prodi, who
    prefers to follow an EU foreign policy lead and has called
    for a timetable to withdraw Italian troops from Iraq. GOI
    officials are concerned about a potential terrorist attack,
    either during the Turin Winter Olympics or the spring
    elections.

    ¶2. (C) Berlusconi will seek: (a) presidential statements of
    support on shared values; (b) support for extending in 2005
    the UN mandate on Iraq; (c) tangible progress on a plan to
    enhance Iraqi security capabilities and allow a coordinated
    drawdown of Italian forces; and (d) the President's possible
    intervention to waive or delay new passport requirements for
    continued Italian participation in the Visa Waiver Program.
    We should: (a) offer appropriate praise for Italy's foreign
    policy support without jeopardizing our relationship with
    Prodi; and (b) engage Berlusconi on Russia and Iran. End
    Summary

    Italian Elections
    -----------------

    ¶3. (C) PM Silvio Berlusconi prides himself on his warm
    relationship with the President and has carefully planned
    this meeting and a spring address to a joint session of
    Congress (he meets Speaker Hastert before going to the White
    House) to bolster his prospects in Italy's national
    elections, tentatively scheduled for April 9. Berlusconi's
    center-right coalition is down eight points in the polls,
    undermined by internal leadership spats and continued
    economic stagnation. The center-left also is plagued by
    internal disputes but former European Commission President
    Romano Prodi just won a triumphant electoral victory in the
    primaries. Pending electoral law changes may slightly
    increase the odds for the center-right, and it is too early
    to deal Berlusconi out. However, most political observers
    predict Prodi's center-left coalition will win in April.

    Iraq: Seeking a Way Forward
    ---------------------------

    ¶4. (C) We expect Berlusconi will juxtapose his proactive,
    pro-U.S. foreign policy with that of Prodi, who prefers to
    follow an EU foreign policy lead and has publicly called for
    a timetable to withdraw Italian troops from Iraq. Berlusconi
    has remained adamant that Italian troops will stay in Iraq
    until the security situation warrants, and the Iraqi
    government requests, a drawdown of Italian troops. The
    center-right has already accused Prodi of encouraging
    terrorist attacks on Italy through reckless calls for
    withdrawal. However, Italian public opinion remains
    overwhelmingly opposed to the war in Iraq and Berlusconi will
    be under increasing pressure to make public statements about
    plans to withdraw troops. He will be reassured by
    commitments of continued high-level consultations but would
    better appreciate progress in enhancing Iraqi security
    capabilities in a way that allows measured Italian drawdowns
    by April. Italy is also seeking an extension of the UN Iraq
    mandate by the end of the year; the Italian presence is
    premised on the UN mandate, and Parliament will vote in
    January on the next six-months of funding for thier troops.
    Italy also feels that the mandate extension should
    specifically reference political progress in Iraq.

    ¶5. (C) We can and will work with a Prodi-led government
    should the center-left win next year. Despite Prodi's calls
    for a withdrawal timetable, other elements of his center-left
    coalition have assured us that Italy will not make any
    dramatic Zapatero-style actions and will coordinate changes
    in troop levels with both us and the Iraqi government. Prodi
    himself has hinted at a compromise formula involving
    continued Italian involvement in Iraq for reconstruction
    initiatives.

    Strongest Ally in Continental Europe
    ------------------------------------

    ¶6. (C) Berlusconi will be seeking Presidential statements
    of support on shared values for our freedom agenda and praise
    for Italy's substantial commitment of resources overseas. In
    addition to being the third largest contributor of troops to
    MFN-I, Italy also funds reconstruction and justice projects
    in Iraq, leads ISAF, a PRT and a justice initiative in
    Afghanistan, just took over KFOR command, pledged $3 million
    to the UN Fund for Democracy, indicated it will fund the new
    Foundation for the Future, co-hosts Democracy Assistance
    Dialogue initiatives with Turkey and Yemen, and provided
    earthquake and hurricane relief for Pakistan and New Orleans.
    We want to provide appropriate praise without jeopardizing a
    potential future relationship with a center-left government.

    Budget Woes
    -----------
    ¶7. (C) High public debt, rising social welfare costs and a
    stagnant economy are limiting Berlusconi's ability to
    maneuver in the face of growing domestic economic discontent.
    Pocketbook issues will drive the campaign and be
    Berlusconi's biggest challenge, although Prodi has yet to
    offer any credible alternative economic policy. The draft
    budget now being debated by the Italian Parliament must be
    approved by the end of the year, and it appears it will
    include painful cuts in many sectors. This includes
    potentially dramatic (to about .85% of GDP) cuts in the
    defense budget and a 20% reduction in the overseas deployment
    budget that could undermined Italy's ability to sustain its
    overseas commitments.

    Terrorist Threat Looms Large
    ----------------------------

    ¶8. (C) Following the London bombings, the GOI approved a
    strong anti-terrorism law and began a crackdown of arrests
    and deportations of illegal immigrants and suspected
    terrorists. However, Italy continues to be targeted in
    fundamentalist websites, and many Italian officials expect
    Italy will be attacked in the near future. They are worried
    specifically about a potential attack during either the
    February Turin Olympics or the spring elections. We continue
    to work closely with the GOI on security preparations and
    intelligence sharing for the Olympics as well as on
    increasing readiness for possible attacks on USG facilities
    or London/Madrid scenarios.

    UN Reform/Iran/Russia/Balkans
    -----------------------------

    ¶9. (C) Berlusconi is likely to thank you for U.S. support
    in opposing the G-4 plan for UNSC reform; while Italy's
    specific concern is blocking Germany from obtaining a seat,
    they support our view that any changes to the Security
    Council should be based on a wide consensus of support within
    the UN. As Iran's largest European trading partner, Italy
    remains concerned that it has been excluded from the EU-3
    negotiations and complains that the EU-3 has not sufficiently
    consulted other EU member states. Italy shares our concern
    about proliferation and supports moving the issue to the
    UNSC. Overall, however, Italy favors engagement over
    confrontation and will be concerned about the economic losses
    associated with potential sanctions. Berlusconi and Putin
    remain good friends, and Berlusconi continues to insist he
    has delivered our messages of concern about Putin's
    increasingly anti-democratic actions. Another nudge from the
    President would strengthen our message. Italy remains fully
    engaged on the Balkans and supports a continued international
    presence in Bosnia and Kosovo until there is international
    consensus that both entities have made sufficient progress on
    democratic reforms. The candidacy of Amb. Laura Mirachian
    for the post of the High Representative in Bosnia is of key
    interest to the Italians. They have lobbied strongly for USG
    support, arguing that Italy's high military profile deserves
    an equally strong policy voice. Department and Embassy
    officers who have met with Mirachian believe she shares our
    outlook for the future of the region. While she has not
    received official USG support at this point, the USG does not
    want to be seen as opposing her candidacy, since she could
    emerge as the front-runner.

    Visa Waiver Program
    -------------------

    ¶10. (SBU) DHS has confirmed that there will be no blanket
    waiver, no official policy favoring parole, and no exceptions
    to the October 26, 2005 requirement for digitized photos in
    passports for any beneficiary of the Visa Waiver Program
    (VWP). The GOI plans to issue machine readable passports
    with digitized photographs in five Italian Prefectures: Rome,
    Milan, Naples, Palermo and Cagliari, with the possibility of
    successive extension to other Prefectures. Italians who
    obtain passports after October 26 from Prefectures other than
    these five offices, or who obtain passports from an Italian
    Consulate abroad, will require a U.S. visa. U.S. consular
    sections in Italy are working with airlines and travel
    agencies to ensure that Italian passengers caught unaware of
    the change in visa requirements are directed to the closest
    Embassy or Consulate for expeditious visa processing.

    ¶11. (C) President Ciampi, FM Fini and senior aides to PM
    Berlusconi have all raised the VWP issue with the Ambassador,
    insisting that the new requirements will be a major
    embarrassment to Berlusconi just when he is trying to use his
    U.S. connections to improve his election prospects.
    Berlusconi may ask the President to intervene to fix the
    problem, arguing that Italy is a staunch partner in the war
    on terror and is in the process of implementing previously
    announced U.S. requirements for biometric passports.
    SPOGLI

`