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### Viewing cable 08PANAMA119, PANAMA POST: 5TH EDITION -- THE POST-CARNIVAL

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
08PANAMA119 | 2008-02-08 18:36 | 2011-05-31 00:00 | CONFIDENTIAL | Embassy Panama

`

    VZCZCXYZ0009
    RR RUEHWEB

    DE RUEHZP #0119/01 0391836
    ZNY CCCCC ZZH
    R 081836Z FEB 08
    FM AMEMBASSY PANAMA
    TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 1716
    INFO RHMFISS/CDR USSOUTHCOM MIAMI FL
    RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
    RHEFDIA/DIA WASHDC
    RHMFISS/JOINT STAFF WASHINGTON DC
    RHEHAAA/NSC WASHDC
    RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC

` `

    C O N F I D E N T I A L PANAMA 000119

    SIPDIS

    SIPDIS

    E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/08/2018
    TAGS: PGOV PREL PM
    SUBJECT: PANAMA POST:  5TH EDITION -- THE POST-CARNIVAL
    EDITION -- VOLUME II

    REF: A. (A) PANAMA 77
         ¶B. (B) PANAMA 103

    -------
    SUMMARY
    -------

    ¶1.  (C)  Panama's four-day Carnival celebration may have
    turned most of Panama City into a ghost town as Panamanians
    headed to the interior, the beaches, or Transismica, one of
    the city's main thoroughfares, to celebrate, but politics did
    not stop.  The Panama Post was able to button hole one
    Panamenista insider, perhaps the only working politico left
    in town, as well as to stay on top of a few other stories
    that are percolating along.  Our headlines for this edition:

    -- Former President Mireya Moscoso's aide predicts more talk
    of constitutional assembly (constituyente) in near future by
    Panamenista candidates;
    -- Panamenista presidential nomination candidates share views
    in La Prensa interview series;
    -- Democratic Change (CD) President and presidential
    candidate Ricardo Martinelli ties on his "chucks" and heads
    out to carnival;
    -- Patriotic Union (UP) President Guillermo "Billy" Ford
    presidential campaign posters appear; and
    -- Governing Revolutionary Democratic Party (PRD) begins
    "congresillos (little congresses)."

    End summary.

    -----------------------------------------
    "Expect to Hear More About Constituyente"
    -----------------------------------------

    ¶2.  (C) "You can expect to hear more about proposals for a
    constitutional assembly (constituyente," former President
    Mireya Moscoso's aide Eduardo Quiros told POLCOUNS on
    February 1, "beginning in March after the (governing
    Revolutionary Democratic Party) PRD holds its internal
    elections."  Quiros explained that Panamenista presidential
    nomination contender Marco Ameglio's call for a constituyente
    (REFTEL B) was not an isolated, desperate attempt for a
    trailing politician to grab headlines in the hopes of
    accelerating his campaign.  "There is broad support for
    constitutional reform.  The constitution we have today is
    basically a dictator's constitution," referring to former
    Panamanian strong man -- and father of current President
    Martin Torrijos -- Omar Torrijos.  Politically, the current
    constitution not only favored large parties, but it favored
    the PRD.  "Nobody understands the distribution of deputies
    between uninominal districts and plurinominal districts,"
    respectively single representative and multiple
    representative districts.  Continuing, Quiros said a
    constituyente would be needed to rebuild the judiciary and
    legislature, promote greater decentralization, and rein in
    excessive presidential power.  "By putting forward a
    constituyente, Panamenistas can stand for change and put the
    PRD on the defensive protecting their dictator's
    constitution," Quiros added.  He said that he believed that
    traditional parties would dominate a constituyente and that
    non-PRD parties would be better represented than in the
    National Assembly, "reflecting more truly the political
    distribution of Panamanians."  "The Bolivarians and other
    leftists are not prepared for constituyente here in Panama.
    We have an opportunity to do this democratically and should
    do it now."

    ¶3.  (C) Comment:  The Panama Post was surprised by Quiros'
    spirited arguments in favor of a constituyente.  This
    proposal definitely has deeper roots inside the Panamenista
    party than just one candidate.  Quiros estimated, probably
    correctly, that voter interest in a constituyente would be
    overshadowed by economic concerns.  That said though, by
    supporting a constituyente, the center-right Panamenista
    party can position itself as supporting dramatic change and
    renewal in Panamanian politics

    --------------------------------------------- ---------
    La Prensa Interviews Help Frame Panamenista Candidates
    --------------------------------------------- ---------

    ¶4.  (SBU) In three interviews with the Panama City broad
    sheet newspaper of record, "La Prensa," Panamenista
    presidential nomination contenders Juan Carlos Varela, Marco
    Ameglio, and Alberto Vallarino shared their views in articles
    that were published on February 2, 3, and 4 respectively.
    The Panama Post provides the following thumbnails of these
    interviews:

    -- Juan Carlos Varela:  In its February 2 article, La Prensa
    described Varela as "optimistic about his victory."  The
    paper reported that Varela described himself as "an apostle
    of service" in contrast to seeing politics as "an economic
    trampoline for personal benefit."  Answering a question
    regarding how much he intended to spend on his campaign,
    Varela offered, "There is only one bank account where
    everything that enters and leaves is recorded.  When the
    (electoral process) is over it will be made public."
    Varela's proposals include:  reducing the electoral subsidy
    that "in some cases merely supports an employee roll of the
    fallen" providing sinecure jobs in a party's administration
    to those who lost elections; improving the minimum wage;
    reducing taxes on "the professional classes;" strengthening
    local government through "municipal decentralization;" and
    closing down neighborhoods where families live in "sub-human"
    conditions and that act as "schools for criminals."  Also,
    Varela said he would "strengthen the police presence in
    conflict areas" and call for a "public contracting process to
    design and build a metropolitan transportation system."
    Summarizing his aims, Varela said, "To establish an efficient
    government that spends less and invests more.  Where
    advertising expenditures are reduced.  A strong government
    and clean hands." Varela, age 44, is the owner of Varela
    Hermanos, Panama's largest liquor producer.  He graduated
    from the Georgia Institute of Technology.

    --Marco Ameglio:  In its February 3 article, La Prensa
    highlighted the Ameglio's bill boards emblazoned with his
    slogan, "Charging ahead (Voy de frente)!"  Responding to the
    interviewers question regarding how it was that a former
    deputy like Ameglio did not enjoy any support from any of the
    Panamenista Party's current 16 deputies, Ameglio said, "My
    career is not a means to drag along the personal aspirations
    of spent deputies, mayors or precinct representatives."  On a
    possible constituyente, Ameglio said, "We need to establish
    the bases of a new republic. . . . Neither the Executive,
    Legislature, nor Judiciary are capable of self-correcting
    themselves.  It is the only way.  Of course there is risk for
    the constituted power (existing government structure), but
    power lies with the people (the constituting power)."
    Ameglio called for more police units, more training, and for
    action on transportation reform and an increase in the
    education budget.    Ameglio, refusing to state specifically
    how much he would spend on the campaign, asserted he would
    spend one-fourth of what his challengers would; "People
    support me because they believe in my proposals, not because
    I contracted them, nor because I bought them, nor because I
    offered to pay for their campaigns."  Ameglio is 46 years
    old, is the vice-president of his families dairy business
    Sociedad de Alimentos de Panama (Bonlac), and enjoys off-road
    motorcycle racing.  The son of Italian immigrants, he is
    married to Xenia Carles de Ameglio, and they have two sons,
    Marco and Roberto.

    -- Alberto Vallarino:  In its February 4 article, La Prensa
    noted that Vallarino had drawn the support of 10 Panamenista
    National Assembly deputies.  "I have been a Panamenista all
    my life.  I come from a Panamenista family.  My aunt Ana
    Matilde Linares as the first wife of Dr. Arnulfo Arias (the
    party's founder)."  He also notes that his grandmother and
    her son were wounded on May 10, 1951 during the violent
    overthrow of Arias.  Asked directly if he had former
    President Mosoco's support, Vallarino answered, "I have the
    support of thousands and thousands of Panamenistas.
    Responding to a question whether the Panamenista party would
    cede leadership of the opposition, Vallarino said, "I do not
    see why that would be necessary.  The Panamenista Party is
    the largest in the opposition."  "I have proposed holding
    interparty elections to choose the opposition's candidate."
    Vallarino said his top three priorities would be:  "Restoring
    tranquillity for the public, guaranteeing effective and
    efficient law and order, and creating dignified, well-paid
    jobs.  And correcting the social and economic distortions in
    such a way that we achieve as a country the eradication of
    extreme poverty and significantly reduce poverty."  Vallarino
    was born April 2, 1951, and both of his parents have passed
    away.  He holds a bachelors in engineering from Cornell where
    he also received an MBA.  Married to Adriana Lewis, he has
    three children.

    ¶5.  (C) Comment:  At least for the Panamenista presidential
    contenders, "It's the economy, stupid," including: addressing
    economic concerns such as the rising cost of living and
    unemployment, creating more opportunity for economic
    opportunity and improving law and order to combat rising
    crime, which is seen as primarily an economically driven
    phenomenon.  Both Varela and Vallarino are striving to
    portray themselves as seasoned businessmen who have created
    jobs and opportunity.  Whereas Vallarino repeatedly returns
    to his and his family's close ties to the party's earliest
    days and its founder, Varela strives to position himself as a
    new kind of Panamenista who is a public servant with clean
    hands.  Ameglio, the most populist of the three and trailing
    badly, rejects Vallarino and Varela as political dilettantes
    and interlopers and portrays himself as the sole Panamenista
    toiling away in the trenches for the "people's" interests.

    ------------------------------------------
    Martinelli Ties on "Chucks," Hits Carnival
    ------------------------------------------

    ¶6.  (SBU)  Having decided to stick with the same slogan as
    his last presidential campaign -- "Walking in the shoes of
    the people (Caminando en los zapatos del pueblo)" --
    Democratic Change (CD) President and presidential candidate
    Ricardo Martinelli had to choose which shoes to wear.  Well,
    in the run up to Panama's 4-day carnival bacchanalia,
    Martinelli chose navy blue, Converse Chuck Taylor All-Stars,
    affectionately know as "chucks."  Martinelli's public choice
    of these cheap canvas and rubber basketball shoes -- first
    marketed by Converse in 1917, not worn for years with
    basketball players, but now favored by rockers, hip-hop
    musicians, and youth -- was a clear attempt to try to curry
    favor with what Martinelli has termed the "generation of
    change."  Martinelli then hit the streets across the country
    -- "chucks" strapped one -- to join the crowds "carnivaling
    (carnevaleando)."  Newspaper and television pictures showed
    Martinelli getting hosed down by the "soaker (mojadero),"
    pressing the flesh with carnival goers, and mugging with
    various carnival princesses.

    ¶7. (SBU) Comment: Given that Panama only votes once every
    five years, an enormous quantity of new first-time voters
    will be entering the political market place in May 2009,
    between 400,000 and 500,000 voters between the ages of 18 and
    ¶23.  Expect not only Martinelli, but also other presidential
    aspirants to expend significant political capital to tap into
    this vote rich demographic.  The Panama Post does not know
    whether Martinelli went with high-tops or low-tops (estimated
    value, according to Google, of USD 42 and 22 respectively),
    but will inform our readers once we know.

    ----------------------------
    Ford Campaign Posters Appear
    ----------------------------

    ¶7. (SBU) During Carnival, Patriotic Union (UP) posters
    emblazoned with party president Guillermo "Billy" Ford's face
    and declaring, "The force of honesty (La fuerza de la
    honestidad)," began appearing in Panama City and along
    Panamanian by-ways.  The media took these adds as evidence of
    Ford's intentions to run for president, frequently noting
    that Ford has never denied being interested in moving into
    the Palace of the Herons (Palacio de las Garzas) Presidential
    Palace.  Several media outlets reported Ford's comment that
    he did not want to be anybody's "spare tire."  Asked
    separately if he would run (again) as Moral Vanguard of the
    People (VMP) presidential candidate Guillermo Endara's vice
    presidential candidate, Ford responded that he could not step
    down from his presidential candidacy without "conversations,"
    presumably with UP faithful and prospective allies.

    ¶8. (C) Comment: Sure, Ford would love to be president, but he
    also told the Panama Post that he would prefer to steer UP
    into an alliance with the Panamenista ticket.  Given his
    acknowledgment that the Panamenistas would be loathe to take
    second billing and Ford's desire neither to be anybody's
    "spare tire" nor to run for a job he had already held (vice
    president), UP's advertising campaign appears to be more
    aimed at maintaining the UP profile than promoting Ford as a
    viable presidential candidate.  Indeed, the ads do not say
    anything about a presidential run nor even mention Ford's
    name, though his face is known to all Panamanians.  The adds,
    printed in UP's signature orange, display the party name in
    large block letters though.  The Panama Post assesses that
    Ford's game remains securing UP the best bargaining position
    for an eventual opposition alliance.

    -----------------------
    PRD Congresillos Begin
    -----------------------

    ¶9. (SBU) On February 9, beginning in the Panama City exurb
    Capira, the governing Revolutionary Democratic Party (PRD)
    will hold its first of 21 congresillos  Each congresillo or
    little congress, pulls together the PRD delegates that were
    elected on January 12 for a party-defined geographic area to
    select representatives to represent that area on the party's
    National Directive Committee (CDN).  Delegates from the 8-2
    and 8-3 electoral circuits will meet on February 9.  The
    following is a schedule of the up-coming congresillos

    Date:      Area:              Delegates:
    -----      -----              ----------
    Feb 9      8-2/8-3            119
    Feb 10     8-4                54
    Feb 12     8-8                241
    Feb 13     8-9                122
    Feb 14     8-10               226
    Feb 15     8-7                282
    Feb 16     Herrera            181
    Feb 16     Cocle              263
    Feb 17     Veraguas           401
    Feb 19     8-6                360
    Feb 21     Colon              271
    Feb 23     Bocas del Toro     144
    Feb 24     Chiriqui I         348
    Feb 24     Chiriqui II        254
    Feb 26     8-1                222
    Feb 29     8-5                183
    Mar 1      Los Santos         167
    Mar 2      Darien             65
    Mar 8      Embera Wounnan     18
    Mar 8      Kuna Yala          71
    Mar 8      Ngobe Bugle        208

    (Note:  Numbers refer to an electoral circuit.  Names refer
    to provinces, expect for the last three areas that
    "comarcas," or indigenous people's reservations.)

    ¶10. (C) Comment:  As the congresillos get under way, the PRD
    now gets down to brass tacks and the arm twisting has already
    begun.  While President Martin Torrijos, First VP and FM
    Samuel Lewis, and Second VP and Minister of the Presidency
    Ruben Arosemena were all outside Panama, candidates for PRD
    president Ernesto "El Toro" Perez Balladares (former
    President of the republic) and Balbina Herrera (current
    Minister of Housing) took advantage of the carnival holidays
    to hit the stump.  Behind the scenes, both El Toro and
    Balbina and their acolytes were striving to line up support
    in the congresillos  Both El Toro and Balbina have said that
    they will attend each congresillo  Ending the day before the
    PRD convention, congresillos will provide insight into the
    likely outcome and relative strengths of the various PRD
    players.  The Panama Post will be watching these congresillos
    closely and will keep its readers informed.
    EATON

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