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### Viewing cable 08MANAGUA1328, NICARAGUA'S ELECTIONS (VIOLENTLY) HEATING UP

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
08MANAGUA1328 | 2008-10-31 18:42 | 2011-06-01 08:00 | UNCLASSIFIED | Embassy Managua

Appears in these articles:
http://www.nacion.com/2011-05-30/Mundo/NotasSecundarias/Mundo2758456.aspx
http://www.nacion.com/2011-05-30/Mundo/NotasSecundarias/Mundo2758467.aspx
http://www.nacion.com/2011-05-30/Mundo/NotasSecundarias/Mundo2758468.aspx
http://www.nacion.com/2011-05-30/Mundo/NotasSecundarias/Mundo2758464.aspx
http://www.confidencial.com.ni/articulo/4103/la-embusa-y-el-gabinete-de-ortega
http://www.confidencial.com.ni/articulo/4104/d-rsquo-escoto-en-onu-ldquo-un-desafio-de-ortega-a-ee-uu-rdquo
http://www.confidencial.com.ni/articulo/4102/estrada-y-la-ldquo-doble-cara-rdquo-ante-ee-uu
http://www.confidencial.com.ni/articulo/3966/la-ldquo-injerencia-rdquo-de-ee-uu-en-el-2006
http://www.nacion.com/2011-05-23/Mundo/Relacionados/Mundo2758764.aspx
http://www.nacion.com/2011-05-23/Mundo/NotaPrincipal/Mundo2758753.aspx
http://www.confidencial.com.ni/articulo/4041/millones-de-dolares-sin-control-y-a-discrecion
http://www.confidencial.com.ni/articulo/4040/la-ldquo-injerencia-rdquo-de-venezuela-en-2006
http://www.confidencial.com.ni/articulo/4047/rodrigo-barreto-enviado-de-ldquo-vacaciones-rdquo
http://www.nacion.com/2011-05-16/Mundo/NotasSecundarias/Mundo2757239.aspx
http://www.nacion.com/2011-05-16/Mundo/NotaPrincipal/Mundo2746658.aspx
http://www.nacion.com/2011-05-16/Mundo/Relacionados/Mundo2757244.aspx
http://www.nacion.com/2011-05-16/Mundo/Relacionados/Mundo2746673.aspx
http://www.confidencial.com.ni/articulo/3991/dra-yadira-centeno-desmiente-cable-diplomatico-eeuu
http://www.confidencial.com.ni/articulo/3968/pellas-pronostico-a-eeuu-victoria-de-ortega-en-2006
http://www.confidencial.com.ni/articulo/3967/barreto-era-ldquo-fuente-confiable-rdquo-para-eeuu

`

    P 311842Z OCT 08
    FM AMEMBASSY MANAGUA
    TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 3314
    INFO WHA CENTRAL AMERICAN COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
    NSC WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
    CIA WASHDC PRIORITY
    DIA WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
    CDR USSOUTHCOM MIAMI FL PRIORITY
    MILLENNIUM CHALLENGE CORP WASHDC PRIORITY

` `

    UNCLAS MANAGUA 001328

    STATE FOR WHA/CEN, NSC FOR FISK/GARCIA

    E.O. 12958: N/A
    TAGS: PGOV PHUM ASEC KDEM NU
    SUBJECT: NICARAGUA'S ELECTIONS (VIOLENTLY) HEATING UP

    REF: MANAGUA 1195

    ¶1.  (SBU) Summary: As Nicaragua's municipal elections draw
    closer, political violence is becoming a daily occurrence.
    The incidents are predominantly instigated by supporters of
    Daniel Ortega's Sandinista National Liberation Front (FSLN)
    against members of the opposition Vamos con
    Eduardo-Constitutional Liberal Party (VCE-PLC).  This has
    resulted in leaders of the opposition parties, civil society,
    and religious groups expressing concern about "the climate of
    violence that the FSLN had unleashed throughout Nicaragua."
    These incidents are expected to continue during the last 10
    days leading up to the November 9 elections.  The bulk of
    opposition campaign activity is going forward unmolested.
    Nonetheless, the recent violence does not bode well for the
    environment on election day.  End Summary.

    ----------------
    Acts of Violence
    ----------------

    ¶2.  (SBU)  Acts of political violence have been a regular
    occurrence since July, but as the November 9 municipal
    elections draw closer these incidents are becoming a daily
    occurrence.  So far this week (October 26-30) there have been
    five separate acts of violence, with the latest incident
    taking place October 30.  On that date FSLN supporters
    attacked a vehicle with VCE-PLC supporters, whom were
    returning from a campaign event.  While the car was at a
    rotunda, FSLN supporters threw rocks and sticks at the
    vehicle's passengers and stabbed two people riding in the
    back of the pick-up.  The injured passengers were taken to
    the hospital, where VCE-PLC mayoral candidate Eduardo
    Montealegre called on the police to provide security on the
    streets to avoid these incidents.

    ¶3.  (SBU) Other acts of recent political violence include:

    - October 29: FSLN supporters attacked VCE-PLC campaign staff
    outside a VCE-PLC campaign office, seriously injuring three
    VCE-PLC supporters.  One of the victims required surgery.
    The event occurred when VCE-PLC staff walked out of their
    campaign office to stop the Ortega supporters from replacing
    Montealegre's party propaganda with FSLN propaganda.  As
    reported by local media, "the Ortega mob" also attacked a
    VCE-PLC photographer and destroyed his camera;

    - October 26: Citizen Power Councils (CPC, the Ortega
    government's extension into local politics and government)
    attacked two VCE-PLC campaign officials with rocks while the
    two traveled in Leon;

    - October 26: CPCs attacked leaders of opposition parties in
    Ciudad Sandino (north of Managua) while the mayoral candidate
    was campaigning door-to-door in the city.

    --------------------------
    FSLN - Victim or Agitator?
    --------------------------

    ¶4.  (SBU) While most of the violence has been instigated by
    Ortega's FSLN supporters, the FSLN has also reported
    VCE-PLC-led violence.  On October 21 media reported that a
    PLC supporter, during a PLC rally, fatally shot a FSLN
    supporter in Matagalpa (northeast of Managua).

    ¶5.  (SBU) However, only FSLN party leaders have publicly
    promoted and defended the use of violence.  On September 23,
    and in response to the September 20 FSLN-led violence in Leon
    (reftel), FSLN National Assembly Deputy Gustavo Porras said
    the FSLN "would defend the streets as a way to defend their
    power."  On October 1, the quasi-official weekly "El 19"
    (controlled by First Lady Rosario Murillo), described the
    September 20 FSLN-led violence in Leon as a "demonstration of
    the pride of the people of Leon who responded to protect
    their streets."

    -------
    Comment
    -------

    ¶6.  (SBU) As Nicaragua's elections draw closer, political
    violence is becoming a daily occurrence.  While both the FSLN
    and the VCE-PLC have provoked violence, the FSLN has been
    overwhelmingly responsible.  There is concern among the
    opposition parties that the violence leading up to the local
    contests can intimidate the electorate, resulting in low
    voter turnout.  Low voter turnout for the municipal contests
    would favor FSLN candidates across the country.  In general,
    this predominantly FSLN-led political violence provides
    concern for the environment in which the elections will take
    place on November 9.

    CALLAHAN

`