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### Viewing cable 09OTTAWA252, CLOSE RACES ARE HOT ELECTION PROSPECTS

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
09OTTAWA252 | 2009-03-30 16:59 | 2011-04-28 00:00 | UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY | Embassy Ottawa

`

    VZCZCXRO4192
    OO RUEHGA RUEHHA RUEHMT RUEHQU RUEHVC
    DE RUEHOT #0252/01 0891659
    ZNR UUUUU ZZH
    O 301659Z MAR 09
    FM AMEMBASSY OTTAWA
    TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 9278
    INFO RUCNCAN/ALL CANADIAN POSTS COLLECTIVE PRIORITY

` `

    UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 OTTAWA 000252

    SIPDIS

    SENSITIVE

    E.O. 12958: N/A
    TAGS: PGOV CA
    SUBJECT: CLOSE RACES ARE HOT ELECTION PROSPECTS

    REF:  A.  08 OTTAWA 1325
    -     B.  08 OTTAWA 1324
    -     C.  OTTAWA 231

    ¶1. (SBU) Summary: In the 2008 federal election, 42 members of
    Parliament won their seats by five pct or less of the vote; these
    "marginals" will be particularly in play in the next election --
    which most pundits expect sometime within the next twelve months.
    The Conservatives hold the greatest number of these ridings; 31 are
    in the key battleground provinces of Ontario, British Columbia, and
    Quebec.  The two major parties are already reportedly focusing on
    the 2008 marginals as the Conservatives scour the country for the
    extra 12 seats they need for a majority government, while the
    Liberals seek at least to regain lost ground and at best to form the
    next government.  End summary

    SQUEAKING BY IN 2008
    --------------------

    ¶2. (U) The Conservatives won a "strengthened" minority government in
    October 2008, with 143 seats in the 308 seat House of Commons to the
    Liberals' 77, the Bloc Quebecois' 49, and the New Democratic Party's
    (NDP) 37 (refs a and b).  (There were two Independent victors.)
    Although the Conservatives and the NDP both gained seats, the
    Conservative vote nationwide only rose from 36.2 pct of the total in
    2006 to 37.6 pct in 2008, and the NDP from 17.4 pct to 18.2 pct.
    The total number of Conservative votes actually dipped slightly --
    by 168,737 votes -- from 2006.  A major factor in the 2008 election
    outcome was a big drop in turnout among Liberal supporters,
    particularly in Ontario and British Columbia, where there were
    significant numbers of urban ridings with tight three-way races.
    Overall, the national participation rate was 59.1 pct, a notable low
    by Canadian standards.

    ¶3. (U) In the 2008 election, candidates in 42 "ridings" (electoral
    districts) won with five pct or less of the vote over the
    second-place candidate.  Of these, the Conservatives won 17, the
    Liberals 12, the Bloc Quebecois five, and the NDP seven.  (One seat
    went to an Independent.)  The Conservatives came second in 15 other
    marginal ridings, with the Liberals second place in 14 marginals.
    Overall, the Liberals won 12 of their 77 current seats (just under
    15 pct of the total) in 2008 by a margin of 5 pct or less, while the
    Conservatives won approximately 12 pct of their 143 seats by the
    same low margin.  However, the Conservatives had greater success
    than the Liberals in retaining marginals that they had won in 2006
    (17 of 18 ridings), converting some of them to safer seats, and
    picking up 11 new marginal ridings.  In contrast, the Liberals lost
    14 of the 22 marginal ridings that they had won in 2006, and only
    picked up two new ones.

    ¶4. (U) In 2008, marginal seats were predominately in the vote-rich
    provinces of Ontario (13), Quebec (10), and British Columbia (8).
    In addition, there were two marginals each in Nova Scotia, New
    Brunswick, Prince Edward Island, and Alberta, and one each in
    Saskatchewan, Newfoundland and Labrador, and the Northwest
    Territories.

    ¶5.  (SBU) These marginals are the logical starting point for the
    strategies of both the Conservatives and Liberals in particular in
    the next election, because the five pct gap is often bridgeable with
    extra resources, a strong local campaign and candidate, and timely
    stops on prime ministerial, ministerial, or leaders' tours.  In
    recent public comments, Liberal MP Keith Martin (who won his B.C.
    riding by only 68 votes) noted that Conservatives are already
    zeroing in on his riding with funding announcements and ministerial
    visits.  Liberal MPs also have alleged that the government of
    Conservative Prime Minister Stephen Harper plans to spend the bulk
    QConservative Prime Minister Stephen Harper plans to spend the bulk
    of a new C$3 billion emergency infrastructure fund in the 2009
    federal budget for projects in "swing" ridings; the government has
    declined repeated requests from the Liberals to release information
    about these projects.

    ONTARIO: WHERE THE ACTION IS
    ----------------------------

    ¶6. (U) Of the 13 marginal seats in Ontario in 2008, Liberal MPs hold
    five, Conservatives five, and the NDP three.  (After the 2006
    election, the Liberals had held 12 of these same 13 ridings, and the
    NDP one.)  Eleven of the 13 marginal ridings are in urban and
    suburban southern Ontario, which had been an electoral fortress for
    the federal Liberal Party from 1993 to 2006.  The Conservatives were
    second in seven more marginal ridings in suburban Toronto and
    south-west Ontario, and the Liberals second in six.

    ¶7. (U) Overall, Conservative MPs now hold 51 of Ontario's 106 seats,
    the Liberals 38, and the NDP 17.     The Conservatives in 2008
    gained 11 seats in Ontario, winning 39.2 pct of the popular vote, up
    from 40 seats and 35.1 pct of the vote in 2006.  However, the
    Conservatives' absolute vote in the province barely increased.

    OTTAWA 00000252  002 OF 003

    According to one study, the party's gain in vote share largely came
    about because approximately 500,000 Ontario voters -- mostly
    Liberals -- went "missing" between the 2006 and 2008 elections, to
    the benefit of Conservative candidates.  The Green Party also helped
    to fragment the opposition vote in Ontario in 2008, without winning
    any seats in Ontario -- or in any other province.

    ¶8. (SBU) Strategic targeting and cultivating of ethnic communities
    by the Conservatives apparently also paid off, notably in Jewish and
    South Asian communities.  Former journalist Peter Kent (now Minister
    of State for the Americas) beat two-term Liberal incumbent Susan
    Kadis with 49.01 pct of the vote in Thornhill, a Toronto suburban
    riding with a substantial Jewish population.  Similarly, in
    Brampton-Springdale (with a significant South Asian community),
    two-term incumbent Liberal MP Ruby Dhalla has seen her own majority
    shrink from 20.20 pct in 2004 to 16.6 pct in 2006 and to only 1.71
    pct in 2008 over the second-place Conservative.

    QUEBEC: A NON-CONSERVATIVE FUTURE?
    ----------------------------------

    ¶9. (U) In Quebec, Bloc Quebecois MPs won five marginals and the
    Conservatives and Liberals two each, along with one Independent.
    The Bloc came second in five other marginal seats in 2008.  Although
    the Conservatives in 2008 overall retained 10 of their 11 seats (two
    of which were marginals) from 2006, they did not place second in any
    of Quebec's eight other marginal seats.  The Liberals wrested two
    Montreal-area ridings (including former Liberal PM Pierre Trudeau's
    son Justin winning his Papineau seat by only 2.78 pct) from the
    Bloc, and placed second to the Bloc in four other marginals.

    ¶10. (SBU) Overall, in 2008 the Bloc won 49 of Quebec's 75 seats, the
    Liberals 14, the Conservatives 10, and the NDP one.   However, the
    Conservative Party received 120,000 fewer votes in Quebec than in
    ¶2006.  (According to one Conservative insider, if the election had
    taken place one week sooner, the Conservatives might have lost
    almost all of their Quebec seats.)  Recent polls suggest that
    Conservative support in the province has dropped from 22 pct in
    October to only between 10 and 13 pct now, with gains going so far
    mainly to the Liberals.  Bloc support has remained steady at 39 pct.
     Conservative insiders have reportedly admitted that all of the
    Conservatives' ten seats (except perhaps former Defence Minister
    Maxime Bernier's rural Beauce riding) may be very much in play in
    the next federal election.  (See ref c for a more detailed
    discussion of the complex Conservative/Quebec relationship.)

    BRITISH COLUMBIA AND THE WEST: JUST A LIBERAL DREAM?
    --------------------------------------------- ----

    ¶11. (U) Conservative insiders reportedly see British Columbia as the
    second hottest battleground -- after Ontario -- to make gains.
    Conservatives won four marginal seats in the province in the 2008
    election, while the Liberals and the NDP each won two.  British
    Columbia was the only province where Conservative gains -- from 17
    seats in 2006 to 22 in 2008 -- were due to a substantial increase in
    votes -- from 681,014 votes (37.3 pct) in 2006 to 797,371 (44.4 pct)
    in 2008).  The Liberals' currently have five seats (down from nine
    in 2006) in the province and the NDP nine.  Rural British Columbia
    has long been solid Conservative country, but, although they came
    close in 2008, the Conservatives have so far failed to break through
    in urban Vancouver.

    ¶12. (SBU) The Conservatives came second in four marginals in 2008,
    of which three were in urban or suburban Vancouver, along with one
    in suburban Victoria.  The Liberals placed second in two marginals
    Qin suburban Victoria.  The Liberals placed second in two marginals
    and the NDP in two.  These coveted urban seats are tightly-fought
    three-way contests which, if the Conservatives could break through,
    would finally dispel the charge that the party is unelectable in
    Canada's major cities.  One obvious Conservative target would be the
    riding of Vancouver South, where former Liberal cabinet minister
    (and former B.C. premier) Ujjal Dosanjh eked out the thinnest margin
    of victory nationwide: only 0.05 pct -- or 20 votes -- over his
    Conservative opponent.

    ¶13. (SBU) Liberal Party leader Michael Ignatieff has declared
    "building bridges" to western and rural Canada a priority.  The
    Liberals currently hold only seven of the 92 seats west of Ontario,
    and received only 16 pct of the western Canadian vote in 2008
    (behind even the NDP).  Since taking over the party leadership in
    December, Ignatieff has already paid four visits to western Canada.
    The party will also hold its biennial policy convention in Vancouver
    in late April/early May, when delegates will formally confirm
    Ignatieff as leader and provide input for the Liberal election
    platform.  Some senior Liberals nonetheless have advised the party
    publicly to set "realistic" goals in the region and initially target
    only the six to eight ridings that the party had previously won in
    Manitoba, Alberta, and Vancouver.

    THE POLLS: NARROWING THE GAP
    ----------------------------

    OTTAWA 00000252  003 OF 003

    ¶14. (U) In recent polls, the Liberals have significantly narrowed
    the gap with the ruling Conservative Party, even moving ahead
    nationally in one mid-March poll to 36 pct over the Conservatives'
    33 pct.  The recession, sliding Conservative support in Quebec, and
    an uptick in Liberal support in Ontario appear to be fuelling the
    Liberals' rise.  While Conservative support has largely remained
    steady in the mid-30 pct range, the Liberals have profited from
    growing support among female voters and an apparent drift back from
    the NDP and Green Party.

    ¶15. (SBU) Political posturing over the recent budget has revived
    talk of a federal election, possibly as early as June, when the
    second of three progress reports on the government's stimulus
    package is due.  However, many Liberal and Conservative MPs have
    suggested fall 2009 or early spring 2010 (before the next budget)
    are far likelier dates, with some Liberals suggesting "all bets are
    off" from the fall onward and Conservative MPs more often expecting
    a 2010 rematch.  Although some Liberals are reportedly eager for a
    snap election, the majority appear to prefer to wait at least
    through the summer.

    ¶16.  (SBU)  According to Liberal MPs charged with platform
    development, Ignatieff's commitment to hold party policy discussions
    this summer within 100 days of formally becoming leader is still on
    track.  The expected next Liberal Party president, Alfred Apps, told
    reporters in March that the Liberals' focus will be on retooling,
    fundraising, organization, and platform development to "help us
    muscle our way back into the centre" of the political spectrum and
    to "help us rebuild where we need to win, which is outside the big
    cities, Quebec and hopefully, some small, modest breakthroughs in
    Western Canada."

    COMMENT
    -------

    ¶17. (SBU) This government's minority status in the House of Commons
    makes a four-year term virtually a political impossibility.
    Conventional wisdom suggests that the severity of the global
    recession would drive voters away from the "luxury" opposition
    parties -- the NDP and the Greens -- everywhere except in Quebec,
    where the Bloc stands poised potentially to do even better than in
    ¶2008.  The two major parties appear set to battle it out primarily
    in Ontario and British Columbia, beginning with those marginal seats
    that they hold or covet.  The Conservatives, with their 17 marginal
    victories in 2008, are arguably in the more precarious position,
    underscoring the expectation that the next election will be theirs
    to lose.
    BREESE

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