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### Viewing cable 06GUAYAQUIL1002, GUAYAQUIL: NOBOA AND PRIAN WIN BIG, SOCIAL CHRISTIAN'S TAKE

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
06GUAYAQUIL1002 | 2006-10-25 16:18 | 2011-05-02 00:00 | UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY | Consulate Guayaquil

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    VZCZCXYZ0000
    RR RUEHWEB

    DE RUEHGL #1002/01 2981618
    ZNR UUUUU ZZH
    R 251618Z OCT 06
    FM AMCONSUL GUAYAQUIL
    TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 8625
    INFO RUEHQT/AMEMBASSY QUITO 9701
    RUEHPE/AMEMBASSY LIMA 3321
    RUEHBO/AMEMBASSY BOGOTA 2905
    RUEHLP/AMEMBASSY LA PAZ 0945

` `

    UNCLAS GUAYAQUIL 001002

    SIPDIS

    SENSITIVE, SIPDIS

    E.O. 12958: N/A
    TAGS: PGOV KDEM EC
    SUBJECT: GUAYAQUIL: NOBOA AND PRIAN WIN BIG, SOCIAL CHRISTIAN'S TAKE
    A HIT

    ¶1.  (SBU) Summary:  Conservative, populist presidential candidate
    Alvaro Noboa (PRIAN) carried Guayas province in the first round
    elections with 36 percent of the vote, in line with the
    disproportionate strength he showed in all three coastal provinces.
    The Guayaquil based Social Christian Party (PSC) took a hit in its
    coastal stronghold.  While Presidential candidate Cynthia Viteri's
    strong third place finish accounted for a big chunk of her national
    vote tally, but PRIAN soundly displaced the PSC as the leading party
    in the province.  The PSC party is under pressure to renovate, as
    party boss Leon Febres Cordero faces recrimination from younger
    leaders.  The Christian Democratic Union (UDC) is aggressively
    wooing disenchanted PSC politicians.  However, in the near term we
    expect that the wily PSC leadership will be able to work with Noboa
    to preserve enough PSC perquisites to keep the party from imploding.
     Guayaquil's economic and political elite are rallying around Noboa,
    although they recognize his political and personal flaws.  End
    Summary.

    Background
    ----------

    ¶2.  (U) Representing 25 percent of the national electorate, Guayas
    province has always played a strategic role in national elections.
    Noboa dominated the 2002 second round presidential elections in
    Guayas, securing 67 percent of the votes in this pro-business part
    of the country.

    First Round Blow to the PSC
    ----------
    ¶3.  (U) In the first round of presidential voting on October 15,
    Noboa easily carried Guayas province with 36 percent of the vote (up
    from 24 percent in the 2002 first round) compared to almost 27
    percent nationally.  Correa and Viteri garnered 17 percent and 16
    percent, respectively.  The PSC's tally was a full ten percent lower
    than its 2002 tally, when the PSC won 26 percent of the Guayas first
    round vote.

    ¶4.  (SBU) On election night, Consulate election observers
    participating in the OAS observation mission gathered a sample of
    almost 10,000 votes from five different voting locations around
    Guayaquil.  The sample confirmed the Noboa victory immediately after
    the close of the polls, prior to the crash of the national electoral
    tribunal's contracted preliminary vote count.

    ¶5.  (SBU) Viteri's gender apparently played a role in the election.
    In our sample, 24 percent of female voters in Guayas voted for
    Viteri, while only 18 percent of male voters sided with her.  No
    other candidate's votes were heavily divided by the gender of the
    voter. Whether her gender gained her women's votes or just lost her
    men's votes isn't entirely clear, but anecdotally we hear that
    Viteri's hard luck story was inspirational to working class women.

    Social Christian Party floundering
    ----------
    ¶6.  (SBU) Long the dominant force in Guayaquil, the PSC scored a
    weak second place to PRIAN.  Weeks prior to the election, we
    reported that the PSC was providing only modest support for Viteri
    while Febres Cordero focused on the congressional races.  That
    strategy appears to have failed.  With 78 percent of the
    congressional vote counted in Guayas, PRIAN has 37 percent of the
    votes.   The PSC is currently showing only 24 percent.  Voters can
    vote both party slate and for individuals.  On the individual side,
    Noboa's wife Annabella Azin Arce leads the field, with exiled former
    president Bucaram's Partido Roldisista Ecuatoriano (PRE) candidates
    holding second and third places.  Febres Cordero is in fourth place.
     Guayas holds 18 of the 100 congressional seats.

    ¶7. (SBU) Many Guayaquilenos we speak with are quietly satisfied with
    the PSC's poor showing and hope that it marks Febres Cordero's
    comeuppance.  It is clear that the PSC is divided and many younger
    leaders are frustrated.  On election day, PSC leaders gathered at
    the home of Leon Febres Cordero--presidential candidate Viteri
    stayed at home with family and confidants to watch the election
    results.  In contrast with Correa and Noboa's very visible
    supporters, PSC representatives were largely absent from the polls
    on election day.  We have also heard that the Christian Democratic
    Union Party (UDC) is trying to lure popular Guayaquil mayor Jaime
    Nebot and others away from the PSC by offering its political base in
    the highlands region.  In a recent conversation with the Consul
    General, Nebot was characteristically circumspect about his own
    political future.  He made a point of praising Viteri's campaign and
    her post-electoral "dignity," a common refrain here, where Viteri's
    standing has risen.  Most are blaming the party rather than Viteri
    for her poor showing.

    Comment
    ----------

    ¶8.  (SBU) Noboa, his wife and all of his inner circle hail from

    Guayaquil, and we expect him to easily win Guayas province with the
    majority of the PSC vote going to him in the second round.  Noboa
    values loyalty and delegates poorly, so a Noboa cabinet would
    probably be made up of high level Noboa employees--perhaps from some
    of his overseas operations--as well as some old-school PSC members.
    The political and economic elite from the coast are relieved by
    Noboa's first round win and are confident - perhaps overly so - that
    he will defeat Correa in the second round.  Although they are
    familiar with Noboa's weaknesses, they will provide strong support
    in the coming weeks in an all-out effort to beat Correa.

    Griffiths

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