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### Viewing cable 10NAIROBI171, Severe Coalition Government Tensions Surface

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
10NAIROBI171 | 2010-02-16 12:23 | 2011-02-27 23:30 | CONFIDENTIAL | Embassy Nairobi
Appears in these articles: http://www.the-star.co.ke/

`

    VZCZCXRO4411
    OO RUEHROV
    DE RUEHNR #0171/01 0471223
    ZNY CCCCC ZZH
    O R 161223Z FEB 10
    FM AMEMBASSY NAIROBI
    TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 0846
    INFO IGAD COLLECTIVE
    RHMFISS/CDR USAFRICOM STUTTGART GE
    RHMFISS/HQ USAFRICOM STUTTGART GE

` `

    C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 NAIROBI 000171

    SIPDIS
    DEPT FOR AF/E AND A/S CARSON

    E.O. 12958: DECL: 2020/02/16
    TAGS: PGOV PREL KE
    SUBJECT: Severe Coalition Government Tensions Surface

    REF: RANNEBERGER-CARSON TELCON FEBRUARY 15

    CLASSIFIED BY: Mitch Benedict, Political Counselor, State, Political;
    REASON: 1.4(B), (D)

    ¶1. (C) Summary. Severe tensions within the coalition government
    have been building in recent days and erupted on February 14 into
    what both sides are characterizing as a "crisis."  The revelation
    of major corruption within the Ministry of Education, headed by a
    minister allied to President Kibaki, sparked retaliatory release of
    a long-delayed forensic audit of the maize scandal allegedly tied
    to the Prime Minister's office as well as Minister of Agriculture
    Ruto.  In an effort to protect himself, Odinga on February 13
    announced the resignations of two officials in his office.  Caught
    off guard, President Kibaki responded by suspending eight senior
    officials implicated in both scandals.  Seeking to regain the upper
    hand, Odinga on February 14 announced he was suspending the
    Minister of Education and Minister of Agriculture.  The President's
    office immediately disputed Odinga's authority to suspend the
    ministers, and announced that the two remain in place.  Odinga is
    also seeking to reopen agreements on contentious issues with
    respect to the constitutional review process reached by the
    Parliamentary Select Committee a week ago.   We are in close touch
    with both sides to urge them to resolve the current imbroglio.
    Odinga has formally requested Annan to intervene pursuant to the
    provisions of the National Accord which formed the coalition
    government.  Annan told the Ambassador on February 15 that he will
    call Kibaki and Odinga.  While the country remains calm, there is
    the potential for some violence given the willingness of
    politicians to resort to such tactics and continued high ethnic
    tensions.  We are closely monitoring the situation.  We issued a
    statement on February 15 urging the coalition partners to resolve
    their differences.  We are reaching out to all the key actors to
    urge calm and appropriate statements calling on the two leaders to
    work out their differences.  Depending on how matters develop in
    the coming days, additional high-level USG intervention may be
    needed.  The coalition crisis, corruption, and constitutional
    review will be the focus of Parliament, when it reconvenes February
    ¶23. End summary.

    Coalition Tensions and "Crisis"

    ¶2. (C) What appeared to be progress on both the constitutional
    review process and corruption issues has been transformed into
    public surfacing of severe tensions within the coalition
    government.  Both sides are, unhelpfully, characterizing this as a
    "crisis."  Though we have publicly avoided doing so, there is a
    growing perception among Kenyans that the tensions do, or will
    soon, amount to a serious crisis.

    ¶3. (C) The tensions are related to the corruption issue and the
    constitutional review process.  There has been growing pressure on
    the coalition government to take action on the education and maize
    scandals.  The Ambassador's January 26 speech focused on the need
    to accelerate implementation of the reform agenda.  The speech
    resulted in revived public discussion on corruption issues
    (particularly the maize and education scandals).  Based on credible
    reports from multiple sources, it seems clear that the maize
    scandal touches the families of both President Kibaki and Prime
    Minister Odinga, and key members of their teams (though Odinga's
    side is likely more culpable on the maize scandal; Minister of
    Agriculture Ruto has been openly hostile toward Odinga and is
    working closely with the Kibaki side, so Kibaki has an interest in
    protecting Ruto).  The corruption within the Ministry of Education
    likely reaches very senior levels on Kibaki's side.

    ¶4. (C) Faced with growing pressure, Kibaki and Odinga saw joint
    interest in taking limited action.  Thus on February 13, the
    government announced that a number of senior officials were being
    suspended for three months while investigations take place into the
    maize and education scandals.  The officials suspended include:
    Ministry of Agriculture Permanent Secretary Romano Kiome, Ministry
    of Special Programs Permanent Secretary Ali Mohamed, Ministry of
    Education Permanent Secretary Karega Mutahi, Office of the Prime
    Minister Permanent Secretary Mohammed Isahakia, Office of the Prime
    Minister Administrative Secretary Caroli Omondi, National Cereals
    and Produce Board Managing Director Gideon Misoi, National Cereals
    and Produce Board Sales and Marketing Manager Boit, and National
    Cereals and Produce Board General Manager Langat.

    ¶5. (C) Although a product of consultations between Kibaki and
    Odinga, the announcement of suspensions was issued by the
    presidency.  On February 14 Odinga announced separately that he was
    suspending Minister of Education Ongeri and Minister of Agriculture
    Ruto for 3 months while investigations take place.  Odinga
    presumably did this because he wanted to be seen directly as acting
    against corruption, but there were undoubtedly other considerations
    as well (see below).  Later on February 14, President Kibaki issued

    NAIROBI 00000171  002 OF 004

    a statement countermanding Odinga's suspension of the two
    ministers, and stated that there had been no consultation between
    him and Odinga regarding such a step (Odinga claimed there were
    consultations).  Additionally, Kibaki stated that the Prime
    Minister does not have the legal or constitutional authority to
    suspend a minister.

    ¶6. (C) On February 15 Odinga issued a statement maintaining that he
    has the authority to remove the ministers pursuant to the
    constitution and to the National Accord and Reconciliation Act.
    (The legal authorities are not completely clear.  While Kibaki has
    the constitutional power to appoint ministers, the National Accord
    states that ministerial appoints and removals shall be made
    pursuant to consultation between the coalition partners.)

    ¶7. (C) Odinga's statement concluded by officially declaring a
    "dispute" between the coalition partners and seeking the "immediate
    intervention of the African Union, in particular the Office of the
    Eminent African Personalities chaired by Kofi Annan, to convene a
    meeting to discuss the current crisis with a view to resolving it."

    Context of Odinga's and Kibaki's Actions

    ¶8. (C) It is important to understand the context in which Odinga's
    actions are taking place.  On February 12 we learned that Odinga
    had chaired a meeting with close advisers with a view toward
    reopening key provisions of the agreements on contentious issues in
    the constitutional review process reached by the Parliamentary
    Select Committee in Naivasha the previous week.  When the
    Ambassador called Odinga, he admitted this was the case.  He stated
    that the Parliamentary Select Committee had exceeded its mandate.
    How could Odinga walk away from the agreement when Odinga's top
    people are in the PSC and participated in the meetings under
    instructions from Odinga, the Ambassador asked?  Odinga had no
    response to this, but nevertheless insisted that key provisions
    must be reopened.  Odinga's decision to reopen key issues came just
    days before the PSC and Committee of Experts were scheduled to
    review the results of the Navaisha meetings and move the
    constitutional review process forward.  Odinga's decision to reopen
    key issues was confirmed today when his ODM party submitted a
    ten-page memorandum to the COE reopening key issues.

    ¶9. (C) We have credible reports that members of Odinga's family,
    presumably with his knowledge and/or involvement, were involved in
    the maize scandal.  Thus, at the time he made his dramatic February
    14 statements, Odinga was facing serious pressures on both the
    corruption and constitutional review issues.  It seems highly
    possible that Odinga made the announcement regarding Ongeri and
    Ruto knowing that it would cause a huge political and
    constitutional flap, and thus divert focus on both the corruption
    and constitutional review issues.  Alternatively, Odinga may have
    miscalculated that he could "roll" Kibaki to go along with his
    actions because Kibaki would not want to be seen as supporting
    ministers tainted by corruption.

    ¶10. (C) Kibaki, like Odinga, also wants to be seen as spearheading
    anti-corruption actions, so one-upsmanship is at play.  Members of
    Kibaki's family may be involved in these or other corruption
    scandals.  Kibaki may have calculated that sacrificing senior-level
    personnel short of ministers would be enough to placate the public.
    At the same time, Kibaki is likely be urged by Uhuru Kenyatta not
    to take action against Ruto, since the two are working closely
    together, possibly with a view toward the 2012 presidential
    elections.

    U.S. Actions

    ¶11. (C) The Ambassador spoke with Presidential Permanent Secretary
    Muthaura and Prime Minister Odinga on February 14. Muthaura
    insisted that, while the President and Prime Minister had discussed
    the possibility of ministerial shake-ups on several occasions,
    there was no agreement to suspend Ongeri and Ruto.  Odinga's action
    to do so has precipitated a constitutional crisis, Muthaura said.
    Odinga told the Ambassador that he consulted Kibaki on the
    suspensions, but he quickly added that whether or not Kibaki had
    agreed makes no difference, since Odinga has the authority to
    suspend the ministers.  "I have the constitutional authority to
    coordinate and supervise the ministers," Odinga stated.  "That
    authority amounts to nothing if I do not have the authority to
    suspend ministers."  The Ambassador urged the Prime Minister to
    call the President with a view toward resolving the impasse and
    avoiding a crisis.  Odinga was non-committal, and then late on
    February 14 he departed for a week-long visit to Thailand and
    Japan.  (As one wag put it: having set the house on fire, Odinga
    left the country.)

    NAIROBI 00000171  003 OF 004

    ¶12. (C) The Ambassador spoke with Kofi Annan on February 15.  Annan
    said he is closely following the situation and will likely call
    Kibaki and Odinga on February 16, after they have both had a chance
    to calm down.  He will urge them to resolve the controversy
    regarding the suspension of the ministers, and to keep the
    constitutional review process on track.  (Annan remains very
    involved on Kenya and plans to hold a major public forum on the
    National Accord in Nairobi in late March.)

    ¶13. (C) In the volatile atmosphere of Kenyan politics and continued
    serious ethnic tensions, resort to violence by some or all of the
    actors is a real possibility.  Ruto certainly sees that as an
    option.  Odinga knows that he does not have the votes in Parliament
    to support his actions (given that Ruto can control at least 12 or
    so MPs), and therefore may be tempted to see fomenting public
    unrest as his only option.

    ¶14. (C) On February 15, we issued a statement urging the coalition
    partners to work together in the interest of the nation (see full
    text below).  We are also urging calm and reaching out to key
    actors, including civil society, the private sector, religious
    groups, the media, youth groups, and politicians.  A number of
    these actors have indicated they will key off of our statement.

    ¶15. (C) We are monitoring the situation closely.  Depending on how
    matters evolve - and the results of Annan's interventions -
    additional high-level USG engagement with Kibaki and Odinga may be
    necessary in the coming days.

    ¶16. (U) Begin text of statement.

    U.S. Government Statement on Coalition Government Actions

    Nairobi, 15 February 2010 - The U.S. Government welcomes the
    decision to order certain officials to step aside while
    investigations into the maize and education scandals proceed. This
    constitutes an essential first step needed to address corruption
    scandals. The Kenyan people and the international community are
    waiting to see whether the government's actions taken so far signal
    a new decision to take bold actions to fight corruption at all
    levels with respect to these cases and the other major corruption
    scandals.

    Thorough, transparent, and independent investigations should be
    carried out expeditiously, and vigorous prosecutions should take
    place as warranted by the evidence. Government officials at all
    levels must be held accountable for their actions. We urge the
    leaders of the coalition government to work together to ensure that
    all appropriate steps are taken so that justice is served and the
    rule of law is respected.

    The signing of the National Accord and formation of the coalition
    government was a watershed which ended the worst crisis in Kenya's
    history. The coalition leaders, therefore, have a responsibility to
    act in a unified way to move forward the historic reform agenda.
    Only a unified coalition government approach, in the spirit of the
    National Accord, will be credible. Only a unified approach by the
    coalition leadership will signal true determination to work
    together to fight corruption.

    The coalition partners must concurrently work together in a
    cooperative spirit to successfully complete the constitutional
    review process. The work of the Committee of Experts and the
    Parliamentary Select Committee constitutes major progress. We urge
    the coalition partners to maintain momentum in the constitutional
    review process, and hold a timely referendum which will unify the
    nation.

    Working together to tackle corruption, to implement other key
    reforms such as police reform, and to see the constitutional review
    process to a successful conclusion are, taken together, vital to
    ensure the future democratic stability and prosperity for all
    Kenyans.

    NAIROBI 00000171  004 OF 004

    We stand behind the message of the Kenyan people: "the resilience
    of the Kenyan people must not be taken for granted any longer.
    Tackle grand corruption and give Wananchi a new constitution."

    End text.
    RANNEBERGER

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