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### Viewing cable 07SANJOSE428, ANTI-CAFTA MARCH STRATEGIC VICTORY FOR GOCR

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
07SANJOSE428 | 2007-03-05 20:30 | 2011-03-03 16:00 | UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY | Embassy San Jose

Appears in these articles:
http://www.nacion.com/2011-03-03/Investigacion/NotasDestacadas/Investigacion2697430.aspx
http://www.nacion.com/2011-03-03/Investigacion/NotaPrincipal/Investigacion2697496.aspx
http://www.nacion.com/2011-03-03/Investigacion/NotasSecundarias/Investigacion2697489.aspx
http://www.nacion.com/2011-03-03/Investigacion/NotasSecundarias/Investigacion2697532.aspx
http://www.nacion.com/2011-03-03/Investigacion/NotasSecundarias/Investigacion2697535.aspx
http://www.nacion.com/2011-03-03/Investigacion/NotasSecundarias/Investigacion2701964.aspx
http://www.nacion.com/2011-03-03/Investigacion/Relacionados/Investigacion2701965.aspx

`

    VZCZCXYZ0000
    PP RUEHWEB

    DE RUEHSJ #0428/01 0642030
    ZNR UUUUU ZZH
    P 052030Z MAR 07
    FM AMEMBASSY SAN JOSE
    TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 7413
    INFO RUEHZA/WHA CENTRAL AMERICAN COLLECTIVE PRIORITY

` `

    UNCLAS SAN JOSE 000428

    SIPDIS

    SENSITIVE
    SIPDIS

    DEPT FOR WHA/CEN JASON MACK, WHA/EPSC AND DS/IP/WHA

    E.O. 12958: N/A
    TAGS: PGOV ELAB ASEC PINR CS
    SUBJECT: ANTI-CAFTA MARCH STRATEGIC VICTORY FOR GOCR

    REF: A. 06 SAN JOSE 2431
         ¶B. SAN JOSE 361

    -------
    SUMMARY
    -------

    ¶1. (SBU) The most recent, and probably the last large
    anti-CAFTA protest march took place without incident on
    February 26.  Participation was only slightly higher than a
    similar protest last October, and the event was generally
    peaceful.  We judge the event to have been a tactical draw,
    in that both sides can claim success, but a strategic victory
    for the GOCR, since the protest changed nothing.  CAFTA
    continues to wind its way through the torturous Costa Rican
    legislative process, which in itself presents challenges
    enough to ratification.  END SUMMARY.

    -----------------------------
    ANOTHER MONDAY, ANOTHER MARCH
    -----------------------------

    ¶2. (U) On February 26, another anti-CAFTA march took place
    through the streets of San Jose, culminating with a rally in
    front of the national legislature. Various speakers,
    including ex-president Rodrigo Carazo (Unidad, 1978-1982),
    denounced the Agreement and called for the Arias
    administration to withdraw it from the legislative process
    and hold a full national dialogue on the issue.  An umbrella
    group of labor unions, university students and professors,
    small farmers, and various social organizations participated,
    although estimated union participation was lower than during
    last October,s protest (Ref A).  The colorful, carnival-like
    event even featured small children wearing red buttons
    stating "Venezuela is a friend, CAFTA is the enemy."
    Citizen's Action Party (PAC) president Otton Solis joined the
    marchers as did the 17 legislators from his party and the two
    others opposed to CAFTA.

    ¶3. (SBU) Estimates of the crowd size varied, as the protest
    got off to a languid start.  The national police publicly
    estimated that 10,000 to 20,000 people eventually
    participated, while leading periodical "La Nacion" claimed
    23,500 were involved.  Our best sources in the security
    services estimated the crowd at 7,000, which puts this
    protest on par with, or only a little larger than, the
    October events, despite the use of buses by the opposition to
    bring in more protesters from outside San Jose.  Even the
    media estimate (exaggerated on our view) was far fewer than
    the 50,000 protesters organizers had predicted.

    ---------------------
    PEACEFUL, AS PROMISED
    ---------------------

    ¶4. (U) Protest organizers, generally kept their promise to
    keep the event peaceful (Ref B).  The main highway between
    San Jose and Limon was blockaded briefly near Siquirres, but
    after the police arrived and a few arrests made (peacefully),
    the line of waiting tractor-trailers was moving again. Police
    had pre-positioned units at potential chokepoints around the
    country in anticipation of precisely this sort of action.
    Security was tight at the national legislature, with unarmed
    female police officers positioned along the metal barricades
    (politely but firmly) to discourage any attempt to enter the
    facility.  Some union leaders warned the media that
    heavily-armed, Colombian-trained riot police were ready
    to swoop in on innocent marchers, but this wild claim
    found no traction.  The legislature kept a regular schedule
    in the morning, but the afternoon plenary session was
    canceled due to the lack of a quorum.  (Between legislators
    traveling, locked out of the building or protesting, only 35
    were available.  A quorum is 38.)  The politicians quickly
    took advantage of their free afternoon, however, to work
    the crowd.  Even legislators aligned with the GOCR
    congratulated the protesters for keeping the peace, and
    defended their right to protest.  Public services were
    largely unaffected, and almost 80 percent of teachers were in
    class nationwide, about the same as during October's strike.
    There were no protests near the Embassy, nor were Embassy
    operations affected in any way.

    -------------------
    LAST OF THE MARCHES
    -------------------

    ¶5. (U) As expected, both sides claimed victory and applauded
    Costa Rica,s "exemplary democracy."  As Minister of
    Government Arias made clear in a post-protest televised
    face-off with Eugenio Trejos (National Front for the Fight
    Against CAFTA), the GOCR has no intention of changing its
    plans.  The CAFTA ratification process would continue. Trejos
    and labor union leaders acknowledged that the February 26
    event likely ended the march-and-rally phase of the fight
    against CAFTA.  However, Trejos, voiced concerns of possible
    violence by radical elements if the government ignored
    the call of the street and proceeded anyway with CAFTA.
    Public sector union leader Albino Vargas was more blunt,
    repeating his (now familiar) refrain that only through
    national strikes and "a referendum in the streets," can the
    "unconstitutional" and "illegitimate" CAFTA ratification be
    halted.

    -------
    COMMENT
    -------

    ¶6. (SBU) The February 26 events did soften the face of the
    anti-CAFTA protests, but that was all.  The GOCR emerged with
    the upper hand, and can concentrate now on overcoming the
    challenges and delays to CAFTA inside the legislature.
    Ironically, the anti-CAFTA bloc,s earlier constitutional
    challenge to CAFTA fast track rules probably absorbed some of
    the energy from this protest.  Instead of taking place with a
    ratification vote imminent, the march took place as CAFTA
    supporters and opponents were waiting for a Supreme Court
    decision on the proposed legislative rules.  The
    opposition,s hoped for best case scenario, a public display
    of overzealous police suppression of protesters, failed to
    materialize, due to foresight and planning by the Ministry of
    Security.  Call this a strategic victory for the Arias
    Administration.
    WEITZENKORN

`