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### Viewing cable 07WELLINGTON198, C) MR. NICE GUY - NEW ZEALAND'S NEW OPPOSITION

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
07WELLINGTON198 | 2007-03-05 03:41 | 2011-04-28 00:00 | CONFIDENTIAL//NOFORN | Embassy Wellington

`

    VZCZCXRO4704
    PP RUEHCHI RUEHDT RUEHFK RUEHHM RUEHKSO RUEHPB
    DE RUEHWL #0198/01 0640341
    ZNY CCCCC ZZH
    P 050341Z MAR 07
    FM AMEMBASSY WELLINGTON
    TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 3979
    INFO RUEHZU/ASIAN PACIFIC ECONOMIC COOPERATION
    RUEHZS/ASSOCIATION OF SOUTHEAST ASIAN NATIONS
    RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHDC
    RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC
    RUEKJCS/OSD WASHINGTON DC
    RHEHAAA/NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL WASHDC
    RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC

` `

    C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 WELLINGTON 000198

    SIPDIS

    NOFORN
    SIPDIS

    E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/05/2027
    TAGS: PGOV PINR NZ
    SUBJECT: (C) MR. NICE GUY - NEW ZEALAND'S NEW OPPOSITION
    LEADER

    Classified By: Consul General John Desrocher for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d
    ).

    (U) This message was drafted by ConGen Auckland and approved
    by Embassy Wellington.

    ¶1.  (C) Summary.  New Zealand opposition leader John Key's
    persona in private meetings with USG officials has differed
    little from the face he has presented to the New Zealand
    public since taking charge of the National Party last
    November.  Key comes across as modest and moderate,
    determined not to alienate the broad New Zealand political
    middle by promoting policies significantly different from
    those of the ruling Labour government.  Likewise, Key's
    public and private statements to date suggest any foreign
    policy changes under a Key-led government would be changes of
    tone rather than substance.  Key's determination not to
    offend begs the question of how he will persuade voters that
    there is any reason to shift their support away from Labour.
    End summary.

    ¶2.  (C) In recent meetings with USG officials, and in public
    statements, New Zealand's National Party chief and opposition
    leader John Key made clear that his goal, at least for the
    time being, is to give the party a more congenial public face
    rather draw dramatic distinctions between National and the
    ruling Labour Party.  Key met with visiting DAS Glyn Davies
    on January 23, after the latter's visit to New Zealand to
    mark the fiftieth anniversary of U.S.-NZ cooperation in the
    Antarctic and, before becoming opposition leader, with ConGen
    Auckland PO.

    ¶3.  (C) During these conversations, Key declined to describe
    a distinctive National Party foreign policy.  Asked how New
    Zealand foreign policy would differ under a National
    government, Key said the change would be more in tone than in
    substance.  Indeed, one of Key's first public statements
    after becoming opposition leader affirmed National's support
    for the country's anti-nuclear stance.  Key and his advisors
    recognize that foreign policy is a weak spot.  To strengthen
    Key's foreign affairs credentials, the party announced that
    it will form a think tank of former senior National
    politicians, including former PM Bolger, to advise Key.

    ¶4.  (C) While we may not see much new foreign policy
    substance, we can expect a far more friendly tone from a
    National government.  Key described Prime Minister Clark as
    "fundamentally anti-American," citing then-Duty Minister
    Anderton's remarks highly critical of the President's Iraq
    policy speech.  While Clark disavowed Anderton's comments,
    Key is convinced that Anderton was only echoing the sort of
    remarks Anderton has heard the Prime Minister make in
    private.

    ¶5.  (C) The conventional wisdom holds that Key's predecessor,
    Don Brash, was doomed at least in part because he had been
    labeled "conservative" or, even more fatally,
    "neoconservative."  Key takes a different tack.  He told
    Davies that National would not differentiate itself from
    Labour with a conservative economic program because a
    "socialist streak" runs through all New Zealanders - "not
    like Sweden, but it's there."  Key described the New Zealand
    polity as a bell curve, with the bulk of voters occupying the
    center.  A move to the right, Key said, would lose far more
    voters than it would gain.  Key is also reluctant to show his
    hand because he fears Labour will adopt any popular ideas he
    puts forward regarding, for example, tax cuts.  Given that
    the next election is some time away, the ruling Labour Party
    would have plenty of time to make Key's good ideas its own.

    ¶6.  (C) Hewing to the center is not simply an electoral
    strategy - the center is where Key feels most comfortable.
    When he was National's finance spokesman, Key spoke privately
    in very positive terms about his counterpart, Finance
    Minister Cullen, describing him as an intelligent and skilled
    policymaker.  Asked what National would do to improve the
    business climate in New Zealand, Key had little to say.  He
    declined the opportunity to bash Labour or describe how he
    would do things differently.  He suggested that New Zealand's
    business environment is strong and identified "brain drain"
    to Australia as the only significant problem.  In remarks to
    the press shortly after becoming National leader, Key backed
    away from the previous National position that New Zealand's
    labor laws undermined labor market flexibility.

    WELLINGTON 00000198  002 OF 002

    ¶7.  (C) Key's private remarks to the Auckland CG reinforced
    the impression that he does not see a big role for Wellington
    in improving New Zealand's economy and is not seeking big new
    ideas for promoting growth and higher incomes.  Key expressed
    support in a pro forma way for tax cuts, but otherwise
    suggested only that New Zealand concentrate on adding value
    to its core strengths - agriculture, tourism, and
    aquaculture.  He avoided the usual platitudes about high tech
    and globalization being the keys to New Zealand's future.

    ¶8.  (C) Comment.  Key's move to the center makes sound
    political sense.  It was probably inevitable given how
    effectively Labour exploited his predecessor's alleged
    right-wing tendencies in order to frighten New Zealand's
    essentially Social Democratic electorate.  Key is also a more
    natural politician than his predecessor.  Key can join a
    pickup volleyball game with a group of teenagers without
    looking entirely fake, while Don Brash's public events often
    were reminiscent of Governor Dukakis's disastrous
    tank-driving outing.  However, Key's easygoing and
    inoffensive approach has already generated accusations that
    his National Party is no more than "Labour-lite."  What is
    impressive about Key is that he has clearly thought through
    his strategy and is both aware of and comfortable with its
    inherent tradeoffs.  He appears to know it will be a
    challenge for him to distinguish National from Labour in a
    meaningful way without unsettling those voters most
    comfortable on the middle ground.  End comment.
    Keegan

`