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### Viewing cable 10BUDAPEST34, OPPOSITION LEADER VIKTOR ORBAN CONFIDENT OF

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
10BUDAPEST34 | 2010-01-22 11:03 | 2011-01-04 19:00 | CONFIDENTIAL | Embassy Budapest
Appears in these articles: http://www.spiegel.de/

`

    VZCZCXRO4975
    PP RUEHDBU RUEHFL RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHNP RUEHROV RUEHSL RUEHSR
    DE RUEHUP #0034/01 0221103
    ZNY CCCCC ZZH
    P 221103Z JAN 10
    FM AMEMBASSY BUDAPEST
    TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 4824
    INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
    RHEHAAA/NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL WASHINGTON DC

` `

    C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BUDAPEST 000034

    SIPDIS

    DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/CE JAMIE MOORE.
    NSC FOR JEFF HOVENIER.

    E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/21/2015
    TAGS: PGOV HU
    SUBJECT: OPPOSITION LEADER VIKTOR ORBAN CONFIDENT OF
    UPCOMING ELECTORAL VICTORY IN INTRODUCING MEETING WITH AMBASSADOR

    Classified By: Political Counselor Paul C. O'Friel
    for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).

    ¶1. (C) SUMMARY. Opposition Fidesz party leader Viktor Orban
    is clearly confident of his victory in April's upcoming
    national elections in which he hopes to crush the Socialist
    party. He is also confident that he can defeat any challenge
    by Jobbik, telling the Ambassador in their January 19 meeting
    that "The best defense against the extreme right is good
    governance by the center-right." The Ambassador welcomed the
    opportunity to work with Orban if his party wins the election
    as expected. END SUMMARY.

    Lower turnout favors the right
    ------------------------------

    ¶2. (C) The Ambassador's introductory meeting with opposition
    party leader Viktor Orban found the Fidesz leader energetic
    and confident of his success in next April's national
    elections. Handicapping the political race, Orban said he
    was hoping for a low turnout, which had traditionally favored
    the right. Noting that he had won in 1998 with a 56 percent
    turnout, and lost in 2002 and 2006 with a 68 percent and 72
    percent turnout, respectively, Orban said, "The best for us
    is no more than 62 percent, otherwise it starts sliding in
    the other direction."

    ¶3. (C) Enthusiastically parsing the electorate, Orban
    described the typical Fidesz voter as committed politically,
    married, better-educated, employed, home-owning, not
    dependent on state largess, and wanting more economic
    freedom. The typical Socialist voter, according to Orban, is
    largely apathetic politically, not as well-educated, from a
    lower socio-economic class, and dependent on the state
    whether for a pension or an unemployment check. The problem
    the Socialist party leadership, whom Orban derisively called
    "billionaire ex-Communist nomenklatura," faced was how to
    mobilize and energize their base.

    ¶4. (C) Using the example of the Socialist party billboards
    springing up around Budapest, Orban observed that the
    Socialist party's logo was tucked away in a corner. Fidesz
    candidate billboards, however, proudly boasted of their party
    affiliation.

    Going for the jugular
    ---------------------

    ¶5. (C) Displaying his go-for-the-jugular political
    instincts, Orban vehemently seconded, "Yeah, we'll crush
    them," when his senior foreign policy advisor, Janos
    Martonyi, predicted that the Socialists would only get
    between 15 and 25 percent of the vote and perhaps
    disintegrate as a political party. The Socialists' demise,
    Orban said, would be for "the good of the country," since the
    party only reflected the interests of former Communist party
    elite.

    ¶6. (C) Orban was dismissive of his competitors, saying that
    none of them had any "political weight." "No one has heard
    of (Socialist Party prime ministerial candidate) Attila
    Mesterhazy," Orban said. He vowed he would not compromise
    with the Socialists once he attained power. "We (Fidesz)
    stand for values. My base would never support any deal with
    the (ex)Communists."

    Good governance best defense against extremism
    --------------------------------------------- -

    ¶7. (C) Orban was equally dismissive of the far-right Jobbik
    party, saying, "They don't have any programs; all they have
    to sell is hate and intolerance. If you want a program, you
    have to turn to us." Orban noted that throughout Europe only
    the center-right was capable of taking on and defeating
    extremist movements. "Look at Chirac and Le Pen in France,"
    he said, adding, "The best defense against the extreme right
    is good governance by the center-right." (Note: Martonyi
    predicts that Jobbik will obtain 8-12 percent of the vote.
    End Note.)

    ¶8. (C) Looking ahead to his anticipated victory, Orban said
    what he hoped to do was inject a new sense of optimism and
    security in Hungary. The challenge, however, was to govern
    effectively. "It will be an exciting time," he promised.
    The Ambassador welcomed the opportunity to work with Orban
    once he had won the elections and formed a new government.

    Budapest 00000034 002 of 002

    She also highlighted the need for a welcoming business
    environment.

    ¶9. (C) Deputy Chief of Mission, who also attended the
    meeting, expressed appreciation for Fidesz's support for the
    Bajnai government's decision to accept a Guantanamo detainee
    and to increase the size of Hungary's Afghanistan contingent.
    Martonyi said there was broad cross-party consensus on
    Hungarian foreign policy objectives and that there would be
    little change from one government to another. (Note: Orban
    confirmed that he intended to name Janos Martonyi as his
    Foreign Minister. End Note.)

    ¶10. (C) COMMENT. Orban, even though he leads by a wide
    margin in every poll, is clearly obsessed with decisively
    defeating the Socialists, his long-time nemesis. We expect
    that, as one of Hungary's shrewdest politicians, this
    bare-knuckled political brawler will leave nothing to chance
    as he mobilizes his party faithful in the march to
    long-awaited victory. Despite Orban's hope for a smaller
    turnout on election day, lower voting numbers may also favor
    a stronger showing by Jobbik, reducing Fidesz's chance for a
    hoped for two-thirds parliamentary majority and increasing
    the chances that the extreme right may enter Parliament.
    Kounalakis

`