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### Viewing cable 06LAPAZ886, EVO AND HIS ADVISORY CIRCLE (PART 1 OF 3)

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
06LAPAZ886 | 2006-03-30 16:47 | 2010-12-03 21:30 | SECRET | Embassy La Paz

`

    VZCZCXRO7448
    PP RUEHLMC
    DE RUEHLP #0886/01 0891647
    ZNY SSSSS ZZH
    P 301647Z MAR 06
    FM AMEMBASSY LA PAZ
    TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 8662
    INFO RUEHAC/AMEMBASSY ASUNCION 5737
    RUEHBO/AMEMBASSY BOGOTA 3015
    RUEHBR/AMEMBASSY BRASILIA 6887
    RUEHBU/AMEMBASSY BUENOS AIRES 4124
    RUEHCV/AMEMBASSY CARACAS 1437
    RUEHPE/AMEMBASSY LIMA 1377
    RUEHMN/AMEMBASSY MONTEVIDEO 3691
    RUEHQT/AMEMBASSY QUITO 4079
    RUEHSG/AMEMBASSY SANTIAGO 8611
    RHMFISS/HQ USSOUTHCOM MIAMI FL
    RUMIAAA/USCINCSO MIAMI FL
    RUEHLMC/MILLENNIUM CHALLENGE CORP
    RHEBAAA/DEPT OF ENERGY WASHINGTON DC
    RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHINGTON DC
    RHEHNSC/NSC WASHINGTON DC

` `

    S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 LA PAZ 000886

    SIPDIS

    SIPDIS

    E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/17/2016
    TAGS: ECON PGOV PREL BL PINR
    SUBJECT: EVO AND HIS ADVISORY CIRCLE (PART 1 OF 3)

    Classified By: Amb. David N. Greenlee for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).

    ¶1. (C) Summary: President Morales is an astute domestic
    political operator but lacks confidence in his economic and
    international relations abilities. As a result, Morales has
    surrounded himself with three compartmented groups of
    advisers. The first are domestic political operators who
    implement his political vision and serve as the attack dogs
    for the President. The second group are Bolivian
    intellectuals that help shore up his decisionmaking in
    economics, intelligence and security, and international
    relations, and implement policies on the ground, including
    the Cuban doctors program, Venezuelan identification program,
    and Bolivian land reform. The third group is his Cuban and
    Venezuelan advisers, who seem to have growing influence with
    the President, trumping even his intellectual advisers. This
    cable is part one of three cables that looks at the
    President, who is in his circle of domestic advisers, and how
    he uses them, and their competition with the Cubans and
    Venezuelans for the President's confidence. End summary.

    --------------------------------------
    Evo: The seasoned Bolivian politician
    --------------------------------------

    ¶2. (C) Radical cocalero union leader turned President Evo
    Morales Ayma is a pragmatic leader whose domestic political
    instincts are extraordinarily acute. Morales is an expert at
    spinning stories in his favor, co-opting the platforms of his
    adversaries, dividing his opposition, and appealing to his
    bases. A leader with strong anti-democratic tendencies, over
    the years he has been known to bribe, threaten, and even
    physically intimidate anyone who has stood in his way,
    including government officials, politicians, and cocalero
    colleagues. He has shown great tactical flexibility and an
    ability to out maneuver even his most formidable political
    opponents to consolidate his own political power. Morales
    has developed a reputation for consulting advisers and social
    groups on domestic political issues, but is confident that he
    is the expert, the advisor and the final decision maker for
    those issues. (Comment: This is particularly true on the
    coca issue.) His cadre of domestic political advisers
    (SEPTEL), which include Senate President Santos Ramirez,
    lower chamber President Edmundo Novillo, his personal
    assistant Ivan Iporre, and Vice Minister of Government
    Coordination and personal attorney Hector Arce, tends to
    operate more as "yes men" who carry out the President's
    orders than as advisers with real influence on the
    President,s decisions.

    ----------------------------
    Evo: The struggling student
    ----------------------------

    ¶3. (C) While Morales excels at domestic political
    machinations, he is more like a struggling student in the
    areas of economics and international relations
    decisionmaking. A man who likes to be in control, Morales
    has shown an eagerness for learning what he needs to make his
    own decisions in these areas. He has sought out intellectual
    "experts," primarily from Bolivia,s public universities, to
    provide him tutoring in the areas he lacks. Morales often
    tunes out detailed economic discussions with foreign
    officials and will at times defer to his "experts" when
    speaking to the press, large groups, and even US officials on
    issues he is uncertain about. His domestic intellectual
    advisers (SEPTEL), who include Vice President Alvaro Garcia
    Linera, Minister of the Presidency Juan Ramon Quintana, and
    Minister of Planning Carlos Villegas, are largely leftist
    ideologues and have tended to have more influence with the
    President compared to his domestic political advisers because
    of his difficulty grasping complex economic theories and lack
    of experience in the international arena. Unfortunately,
    some of this advice borrows from a storehouse of discredited
    ideas and fantasyland assumptions.

    ------------------------------------------

    LA PAZ 00000886 002 OF 002

    Evo: The Cuban and Venezuelan conspirator
    ------------------------------------------

    ¶4. (S//NF) The third group is a pandora's box of Cuban and
    Venezuelan advisers, who may have growing influence with the
    President. While we do not know the extent of their
    presence, sensitive reporting indicates that Morales meets
    privately with his foreign advisers multiple times a week
    without any domestic advisers present. The same reporting
    also indicates that he receives both political and economic
    advice from the Cubans. Morales is implementing several
    programs initiated by the Cubans and Venezuelans in the areas
    of education, health, and citizen registration. Several of
    the President's domestic advisers are working hand in hand
    with the Cubans and Venezuelans, seeking to replace US
    markets with Venezuelan trade deals, and sensitive reporting
    says that they are regularly traveling to Cuba for political
    training.

    ¶5. (C) Comment: Morales has had a roller-coaster
    relationship with several of his key domestic advisers,
    especially Vice President Garcia Linera. He is highly
    suspicious by nature and is unlikely to tolerate advisers
    with their own agenda for power and recognition. Morales
    likely sees the Cuban and Venezuelan advisers as
    non-threatening to his domestic power. In addition, as an
    admirer of Cuban President Fidel Castro and Venezuelan
    President Hugo Chavez, Morales probably is drawn by the
    longevity of their time in power and seeks to emulate their
    "success." If Morales grows wary of his domestic advisers he
    is likely to rely more heavily on his foreign advisers to
    carry out his vision. End comment.
    GREENLEE

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