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### Viewing cable 04HALIFAX255, PROVINCIAL POLITICS IN ATLANTIC CANADA: WHO'S IN AND WHO'S

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
04HALIFAX255 | 2004-11-13 18:42 | 2011-04-28 00:00 | UNCLASSIFIED | Consulate Halifax

`

    This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

    131842Z Nov 04

` `

    UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 HALIFAX 000255

    SIPDIS

    FOR WHA/CAN

    E.O. 12958: N/A
    TAGS: PGOV ECON CA
    SUBJECT: PROVINCIAL POLITICS IN ATLANTIC CANADA:  WHO'S IN AND WHO'S
    OUT

    ¶1.  INTRODUCTION AND SUMMARY:  This fall has proven to be a busy
    season for provincial politicians in Atlantic Canada.  Minority
    governments, shortened legislative sessions, by-elections, and
    party leadership changes have combined to create more attention
    than usual on what's going on both inside and outside the four
    legislatures.  Accordingly, we have taken a snapshot look at
    each of the provinces showing the situation in each with a few
    predictions on what's in store for the region.

    ¶2.  Both New Brunswick and Nova Scotia are facing minority
    governments suggesting a decline in the Conservative Party's
    sway in these provinces.  In N.B. the Liberals are the strongest
    potential challenger, while in N.S. it is the NDP.  In the short
    term neither of these provincial governments seem likely to be
    overturned, but in the longer term observers should not be
    surprised to see electoral change.  In Newfoundland and Labrador
    and Prince Edward Island the Conservative leadership is
    experiencing more popularity.  Only in Newfoundland could the
    popularity be fleeting, pending the Premier's success in
    negotiations with Ottawa. Thus it will be interesting to watch
    whether the potential fall of the Conservatives in N.B. or N.S.
    will shake the popularity of the Conservatives in PEI and
    Newfoundland and Labrador.  END INTRODUCTION/SUMMARY

    New Brunswick
    -------------

    ¶3.  Lt. Governor Herminigilde Chiasson (Appointed for a five
    year term on August 26, 2003)

    Premier: Bernard Lord (Party: Progressive Conservatives)
    Most recent election:  June 9, 2003
    Current Party Standings in the House (55 seats in total)
            Progressive Conservatives 28
                    (Leader: Bernard Lord since October 18, 1997
            Liberals 26
                    (Leader: Shawn Graham since May 11, 2002
            New Democrats 1
                    (Leader:  Elizabeth Weir since 1988)

    Election history:  Bernard Lord and his Conservative party have
    ruled New Brunswick since they overturned the incumbent Liberals
    in the June 1999 election.

    Current political scene:  While portrayed as a rising star on
    the national political stage, Conservative Premier Bernard Lord
    is suffering from popularity problems with the folks at home.
    Lord's tough policy decisions on health care reform have created
    widespread unrest throughout the province and have stirred up
    serious dissention in the party ranks over how the Premier
    handled contentious issues such as hospital bed closures and
    downgrading hospitals. Helping to fan the flames of discontent
    is Liberal Opposition leader Shawn Graham, now openly talking of
    bringing down the government in the next legislative session of
    the house.

    The possibility of an eventual non-confidence motion has led
    Graham to institute a series of personnel changes in his caucus
    office including the addition of a new chief of staff whose
    principal job will be to prepare the party for battle with the
    Conservatives.  However, the Liberals are still struggling with
    a credibility problem among the electorate.  Hesitancy is thus
    the play of the day, with some Liberal rank and file calling for
    restraint in order to allow the party to build up more momentum
    before forcing a new election. The NDP is similarly reluctant to
    bring down the current government. The current NDP leader
    Elizabeth Weir, who holds the party's only seat in the house,
    recently announced her resignation as leader, although there is
    no date yet for a convention to pick a replacement.  All things
    considered, this will make the next New Brunswick legislative
    session the one to watch in the region.

    Nova Scotia
    -----------

    ¶4.  Lt. Governor: Myra A. Freeman (Appointed for a five year
    term on April 28, 2000)
    Premier: John F. Hamm (Party: Progressive Conservatives-PC)
    Most Recent Election: August 5, 2003
    Party Standings in the House (52 seats in total)
            Progressive Conservatives 25
                    (Leader:  John F. Hamm since October 28, 1995)
            Liberals 12
    (Leader:  Francis Mackenzie since October 23, 2004)
            New Democrats 15
                    (Leader:  Darrell Dexter since June 4, 2001)

    Election History:  John Hamm and his Conservatives have been
    governing Nova Scotia since July 1999 when they defeated the
    incumbent Liberal government by a wide majority.

    Current political scene:  Like his counterpart in New Brunswick,
    Nova Scotia premier John Hamm is in a precarious minority
    situation, although the opposition is split with the NDP forming
    the official opposition and the Liberals in third place.  The
    NDP has done very well in the province, offering a cooperative
    attitude in working with the incumbent Tories to keep the
    government afloat.

    With the NDP viewed as a credible alternative to the ruling
    Tories, the Liberals appear destined to remain in third place.
    The Liberals have been plagued with weak leadership and this
    does not seem to have changed with the recent newly elected
    leader, Francis MacKenzie. MacKenzie does not have a seat in the
    legislature and will likely have to wait until another general
    election before he has a chance to enter the house.  Thus it
    seems that John Hamm's popularity may be slipping and this will
    likely work in favor of the NDP leaving the Liberals to cool
    their heels for the time being.

    Newfoundland-Labrador
    ---------------------

    ¶5.  Lt. Governor Edward M. Roberts (Appointed for a five year
    term on November 1, 2002)
    Premier: Danny Williams (Party: Progressive Conservatives-PC)
    Most recent election: October 21, 2003
    Party Standings in the House (48 seats in total)
            Conservatives 34
                    (Leader:  Danny Williams since April 7, 2001)
            Liberals 12
                    (Leader:  Roger Grimes since February 3, 2001)
            New Democrats 2
                    (Leader:  Jack Harris since November, 1992)

    Election History: With their win in the October 2003 provincial
    election, Premier Williams and his Tories upset a 12-year long
    Liberal administration.

    Current political scene: Premier Danny Williams recently
    celebrated his first-year anniversary, but he admits that it has
    been a tough year.  After reviewing the province's fiscal
    situation last year, Williams said he had no choice but to
    institute tough measures to bring the province's fiscal
    situation under control and enduring a contentious public sector
    strike.  While fiscal watchers applauded the government's tough
    stance, the measures left the government shaken.  However,
    Williams has seen a surge in popularity with his firm stance
    with the federal government on a revenue sharing agreement on
    offshore energy projects. Should Williams get his way in this
    current dispute with Ottawa, it would be the crowning
    achievement for Williams and one that even opposition leader
    Roger Grimes admits he would applaud. Due to the popularity of
    Williams' position on revenue sharing, Grimes and the two NDP
    members have been forced to instead zero in on Williams'
    personal style of one-man showmanship, hence their new name for
    the Premier, the "Daniator."

    Prince Edward Island
    ---------------------
    ¶6.  Lt. Governor J. Lionce Bernard (Appointed for a five year
    term on May 28, 2001)
    Premier: Patrick George Binns (Party: Progressive Conservatives)
    Most Recent Election: September 29, 2003
    Party Standings in the House (27 seats in total)
            Conservatives
                    (Leader: Patrick George Binns since May 4, 1996
            Liberals
                    (Leader:  Robert Ghiz since April 5, 2003)

    Election History:  Pat Binns and the Conservatives have been
    governing Prince Edward Island since 1996 when they overturned a
    10-year incumbent Liberal government

    Current political scene: Premier Pat Binns is enjoying continued
    support from Islanders, making it difficult for Liberal
    Opposition Leader Robert Ghiz to make many inroads.  In fact,
    pundits believe that it would take the eventual retirement of
    the popular Binns to open up any opportunities for Ghiz. As for
    the NDP, the party has never elected a member either federally
    or provincially, and still appears unprepared to make any
    headway.

    ¶7.  COMMENT:  In the last decade the Atlantic Provinces have
    borne witness to the almost universal defeat in provincial
    legislatures of the previously dominant Liberal Party in favor
    of the Progressive Conservatives.  At the federal level,
    however, the story has been different: in the June 2004 election
    the Liberals took a significant majority of the region's seats
    in the Parliament in Ottawa.   The question to ask while
    watching the Atlantic Provinces in future will be whether this
    "spell" of Conservatism was simply an attempt on the part of
    Atlantic Canadians to express their dissatisfaction with the
    perceived financial irresponsibility of provincial Liberal
    governments or whether this is indicative of a general shift in
    ideology.

    ¶8.  The decline in the popularity of the Conservatives in Nova
    Scotia and New Brunswick indicates that the former may be the
    more accurate analysis, however the situation is less clear in
    the other two Atlantic Provinces.  If the past few years were
    just a warning, then watchers will likely see a return to the
    center following a restructuring and redefinition of the
    alternative parties.  As mentioned, the province to watch will
    be New Brunswick, both because the politics are interesting in
    themselves, but also because N.B. could be the bellwether for a
    more general trend away from the Tories in provincial
    legislatures.
    END COMMENT

    HILL

`