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### Viewing cable 04QUITO2702, MAYOR'S RACE A TOSS-UP IN ECUADOR'S THIRD CITY

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
04QUITO2702 | 2004-10-06 21:01 | 2011-05-02 00:00 | UNCLASSIFIED | Embassy Quito

`

    This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

` `

    UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 QUITO 002702

    SIPDIS

    E.O. 12958: N/A
    TAGS: PGOV PREL EC
    SUBJECT: MAYOR'S RACE A TOSS-UP IN ECUADOR'S THIRD CITY

    ¶1.  Summary.  The Cuenca mayoral race is too close to call
    between two strong candidates, Fernando Cordero (New
    City-Pachakutik alliance), the incumbent, and Marcelo Cabrera
    (Democratic Left), recently the provincial prefect of Azuay.
    Meanwhile, Xavier Munoz, of Popular Democracy is the clear
    front-runner for prefect of Azuay.  The mayoral race in
    Ecuador's third largest city is interesting because it pits
    two popular incumbents against each other.  End Summary.

    Background Information
    ----------------------

    ¶2.  PolOff visited Cuenca, provincial capital of Azuay
    province September 30-October 1 for meetings with local
    election officials, party officials and an NGO (independent
    electoral observer).  Cuenca, a charming town with
    distinguished colonial architecture best known for the Panama
    hats woven there, is also the third largest city in Ecuador,
    located in the southern Sierra region.  Azuay province has a
    serious out-migration problem with many towns depopulated of
    working aged men who have emigrated to the US and Spain.
    Azuay has a total of 447,587 eligible voters (5.2% of the
    national total) who will vote on October 17 to select a
    provincial prefect (U.S. governor-equivalent), 5 provincial
    councilors, 15 mayors, 64 municipal councilors and 59 rural
    councils.  Electoral officials predicted 30% absenteeism on
    election day in Azuay province.

    Mayoral Race Close
    ------------------

    ¶3.  The mayoral race is too close to call between the
    incumbent, Fernando Cordero of the New City party (allied
    with Pachakutik) and Marcelo Cabrera, of the Democratic Left
    (ID) party.  Cabrera has served as Prefect of Azuay Province
    for the last 8 years.  Electoral watchdog NGO Citizens
    Participation charged both candidates with posting signs on
    public works, a violation of campaign rules.  In response,
    Cordero's campaign coordinator, Gabriel Ledesma, blamed
    undisciplined supporters for the infraction.  Cabrera
    subsequently took down his signs.

    ¶4.  New City campaign coordinator Gabriel Ledesma told PolOff
    that Ecuador had suffered through 25 years of "party-ocracy."
     Ledesma described New City as different in that it does not
    make promises and had no party doctrine.  In fact, New City
    is not a party, but a local movement which has allied with
    the Pachakutik party.  While the Democratic Left accuses
    Cordero of concentrating power in himself, Ledesma pointed
    out that Cordero had passed 173 ordinances in cooperation
    with the city council (showing he could work with others)
    versus one ordinance passed by Prefect Cabrera.  Ledesma
    accused Cabrera of corruption in contracts for public works.

    ¶5.  Orlando Albornoz, campaign manager of the ID in Cuenca,
    emphasized that the ID is an ideologically-based party and as
    eager to pronounce on local and national issues.  He argued
    that without the structure of a party, politicians are not
    accountable for their actions.  Albornoz echoed Munoz' public
    statements in favor of greater decentralization of taxing
    authority.  Azuay province needs more power to directly
    administer projects, such as new roads, he said.  Albornoz
    said Ecuador should work with international organizations
    such as the World Bank and Inter-American Bank to fund
    development projects.  He also felt the US should look to
    Latin America first for allies.  Albornoz worried that
    Ecuadorian markets would be invaded by American products
    should an FTA be signed.

    ¶6.  There are also two well-respected female candidates for
    mayor, Susana Gonzalez, a former President of Congress (of
    the For Cuenca Party) and Angelica Garcia of President
    Gutierrez' Patriotic Society Party).  The Supreme Electoral
    Tribunal requires parties to allocate at least 40% of its
    candidate lists to women.  There are no female candidates for
    Prefect of Azuay.

    Munoz the Favorite in Prefect Race
    ----------------------------------

    ¶7.  Xavier Munoz (Popular Democracy Party), a former mayor,
    prefect and Congressman, stood out as the clear favorite in
    the race for Prefect of Azuay province.  Paul Carrasco of the
    Democratic Left Party (ID) and Paul Granda of the New
    City-Pachakutik alliance trailed Munoz in the polls.  PolOff
    attended a forum of the candidates for prefect organized by
    Citizens Participation.  All but Carrasco attended.  A key
    theme all candidates mentioned was the need for a better
    highway system in Azuay province.  Granda argued a better
    road system was linked with improvements in the economy
    health, education and tourism.  Granda also felt these
    improvements could stem the serious migration problem in
    Azuay province.  There were no other concrete solutions to
    migration presented.  Munoz instead proposed Congressional
    reforms to allow local governments to make use of income
    taxes to increase municipal autonomy from the central
    government.
    Citizen Participation Will Monitor Elections
    --------------------------------------------
    ¶8.  Citizens Participation (PC) regional coordinator told
    PolOff that PC will have 500 volunteers monitoring elections
    on October 17.  These volunteers are aged 16-18 and represent
    ten public and private schools.  On October 2, a practice
    session was held for the volunteers.  Rodas touted PC's
    sponsorship of the candidate forums as an important service
    to voters.  He described the meetings as civil, with no
    personal attacks.  (PolOff confirmed this at the session she
    attended.)  The forums have good turnout and were broadcast
    on the radio.  Previously, prefect candidate Munoz had been
    attacked for his relationship with unpopular former President
    Mahuad.

    Electronic Vote to be Tested
    ----------------------------

    ¶9.  The town of Totoracocha, with 12,724 eligible voters, has
    received 80 electronic voting booths, lent to the GoE by the
    Government of Brazil.  Thirty-seven of the machines will be
    used for voters to practice and forty-three will be used for
    voting on election day.  Each machine will be used by about
    300 people.  (Voting booths are divided by gender;
    Totoracocha has 20 male booths and 23 female booths.)  Voters
    will not be allowed to vote electronically unless they have a
    certificate proving that they have received prior training.
    According to Dr. Jorge Moreno, President of the Provincial
    Electoral Tribunal, as of September 30, 7,000 of the eligible
    voters had received the necessary training.  From October
    1-15, additional training sessions will be offered.  Voters
    will also be able to practice on 30 machines on election day.
     The Provincial Electoral Tribunal has been handing out
    flyers door-to-door and using cars with loudspeakers to
    announce the practice days and locations.

    ¶10.  According to Moreno, minor parties such as New City and
    For Cuenca have complained to the Provincial Electoral
    Tribunal that voters can only see the majority party logos on
    the electronic screen.  Minority parties fear this could
    influence voters on election day.  Ledesma said that this
    omission in the test voting machines could cause confusion on
    election day, putting the votes of approximately 5% of Azuay
    voters into question.  Albornoz also feared electronic voting
    could permit fraud through electronic manipulation.  Post
    expects the OAS to field a team of electoral observers to the
    province.

    Comment
    -------

    ¶11.  The election in Cuenca is interesting because it pits
    two popular incumbents - one from a major established party
    (ID) and one running against what established parties
    represent.  A Cordero win would reflect growing public
    disenchantment with politics as usual.  Conversely, a Cabrera
    win would reinforce the ID's strength in the province and
    nationally.
    KENNEY

`