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### Viewing cable 09HELSINKI378, FINNISH COMMITMENT TO AFGHANISTAN STEADY BUT

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
09HELSINKI378 | 2009-10-15 13:11 | 2011-04-24 00:00 | CONFIDENTIAL | Embassy Helsinki

`

    VZCZCXYZ0000
    OO RUEHWEB

    DE RUEHHE #0378/01 2881311
    ZNY CCCCC ZZH
    O 151311Z OCT 09
    FM AMEMBASSY HELSINKI
    TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 5209
    INFO RUEHBUL/AMEMBASSY KABUL PRIORITY 0101
    RUEHSM/AMEMBASSY STOCKHOLM PRIORITY 8680
    RUEHNO/USMISSION USNATO PRIORITY 0980
    RUEHBS/USEU BRUSSELS PRIORITY
    RUFGNOA/USCINCEUR VAIHINGEN GE PRIORITY
    RUCJACC/USCINCCENT MACDILL AFB FL PRIORITY
    RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC PRIORITY

` `

    C O N F I D E N T I A L HELSINKI 000378

    SIPDIS

    E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/14/2019
    TAGS: AF FI MOPS PGOV PREL
    SUBJECT: FINNISH COMMITMENT TO AFGHANISTAN STEADY BUT
    ELECTION SURGE COMING HOME

    Classified By: Ambassador Bruce J. Oreck for Reasons 1.4(b) and (d)

     ¶1. (C) SUMMARY:  The commitment of Finnish forces to ISAF
    continues to be a matter of public debate in Helsinki.  All
    political parties (with the exception of the opposition Left
    Alliance) reiterated their support for Finland's current
    policy regarding Afghanistan including maintaining its
    participation in ISAF.  The government's commitments were
    affirmed by CHOD Puheloinen and MOD DG for Policy Jarvenpaa
    in separate meetings with the Ambassador in the last week,
    though each made clear that Finland's "election surge" of
    forces would be withdrawn by October 28.  While not
    optimistic about the prospects of stabilizing Afghanistan,
    around half of Finns polled continue to support Finland's
    current level of involvement there with around 35-40%
    favoring a withdrawal.  Recent casualties among Finnish
    troops have not triggered a change in the public discussion.
    END SUMMARY.

    ------------------------------------------
    BROAD SUPPORT FOR GOF POLICY IN PARLIAMENT
    ------------------------------------------

    ¶2. (C) On October 1 Parliament held a general debate on
    Afghanistan in which some 30 MPs participated.  Finland's
    presence there was supported across the spectrum of parties
    with the exception of the Left Alliance, although support
    within the Social Democratic Party (SDP) was weaker than in
    the governing parties.  SDP leader Jutta Urpilainen, however,
    argued in favor of maintaining Finland's commitment there in
    order to maintain a strong relationship with the U.S.
    Foreign Minister Stubb emphasized that no new troops were
    being asked to deploy and that no date of withdrawal should
    be set in advance.  Defense Minister Hakamies added that
    there was no military solution and that political dialogue
    was necessary.  NOTE: Hakamies has continued to emphasize the
    need for dialogue with what he terms "moderate Taliban" since
    his return from the U.S. in September; he went so far as to
    publicly suggest that the EU nominate Green Party MP Pekka
    Haavisto as a mediator to conduct such a dialogue.  Embassy
    sources indicate that this idea has not been discussed inside
    the GOF and we do not believe that it represents government
    policy.  END NOTE.  The idea of increasing Finland's troop
    presence and changing the mission to one allowing offensive
    action was debated but rejected by most participants.  The
    idea of maintaining or increasing Finland's focus on
    development and humanitarian aid in Afghanistan in the long
    term drew broad support.  This debate took place just before
    four Finnish soldiers serving in ISAF were injured by a
    roadside bomb, two of them seriously enough to be evacuated
    back to Helsinki.  Reaction to the casualties in the media
    has been very muted and the topic does not appear to have
    affected the public debate on the issue.

    --------------------------------------------- -
    ELECTION SUPPORT FORCES WITHDRAWING OCTOBER 28
    --------------------------------------------- -
    ¶3. (C) In a private meeting with the Ambassador on October 8,
    MOD Director General for Policy Dr. Pauli Jarvenpaa indicated
    a decision would be taken by the Finnish government to
    redeploy Finland's Election Support Force (ESF) troops on
    schedule in late October.  He believed this would occur
    regardless of whether questions over the validity of the
    election were resolved or not.  In a meeting with the
    Ambassador on October 13, GEN Ari Puheloinen, the FDF Chief
    of Defence confirmed that the ESF would be redeployed as
    planned on 28 October.  GEN Puheloinen cited several reasons
    for this redeployment. FDF personnel deployed to support
    crisis management operations must volunteer and are given a
    specific time by contract for their deployment.  These
    contracts for ESF personnel are complete at the end of
    October.  There is no political will (and probably no legal
    standing) to involuntarily extend members of the ESF, and
    indications are that a majority of ESF members would not
    volunteer to extend their contract.  The lead forces in the
    Finnish area of operation are the Swedes, and they are
    preparing to conduct a planned rotation.  During this
    rotation, according to Puheloinen, there would not be
    sufficient quarters to support the ESF if they stayed.
    Lastly, available crisis management funds are limited and an
    extension of the ESF for some indefinite period is not in the
    budget.  NOTE: DG Jarvenpaa specifically stated that funding
    was not/not a reason for the redeployment.  END NOTE.

    ---------------------------------------------

    POLLING SHOWS FINNS STEADY BUT NOT OPTIMISTIC
    ---------------------------------------------

    ¶4. (U) According to a poll published by Helsingin Sanomat on
    September 30, 49% of Finns favor Finland's participation in
    crisis management operations in Afghanistan, 35% would
    withdraw Finnish troops, and 16% have no opinion.  65%
    believe Afghanistan is unlikely or highly unlikely to achieve
    democracy or protection of human rights.  An MTV3 poll on
    September 24 reported that 66% of Finns do not believe that
    ISAF will be able to stabilize Afghanistan while 22% are
    confident that it could.  44% favored Finnish participation
    at current troop levels and 40% favored a total withdrawal.
    ORECK

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