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### Viewing cable 09ANKARA1692, SCENESETTER FOR SPECIAL ENVOY MORNINGSTAR: FOURTH U.S.-TURKEY ENERGY WORKING GROUP MEETING

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
09ANKARA1692 | 2009-11-24 13:02 | 2011-04-12 13:00 | CONFIDENTIAL | Embassy Ankara

`

    VZCZCXYZ0000
    PP RUEHWEB

    DE RUEHAK #1692/01 3281302
    ZNY CCCCC ZZH
    P 241302Z NOV 09
    FM AMEMBASSY ANKARA
    TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 1316

    INFO RUEHAH/AMEMBASSY ASHGABAT PRIORITY 1977
    RUEHGB/AMEMBASSY BAGHDAD PRIORITY 1516
    RUEHKB/AMEMBASSY BAKU PRIORITY 1638
    RHEBAAA/DEPT OF ENERGY WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY

` `

    C O N F I D E N T I A L ANKARA 001692

    SIPDIS

    DEPARTMENT FOR S/EEE RICHARD MORNINGSTAR

    E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/23/2019
    TAGS: ENRG EPET PREL TU
    SUBJECT: SCENESETTER FOR SPECIAL ENVOY MORNINGSTAR: FOURTH U.S.-TURKEY ENERGY WORKING GROUP MEETING

    REF: ANKARA 1566

    Classified By: Amb. James Jeffrey for reasons 1.4 (b,d).

    SUMMARY
    -------

    ¶1. (C) Over the past several months, Turkey has been actively
    exploring its energy options--from Azerbaijan and Russia to
    Iran and Qatar (reftel).  As the GoT prepares next steps in
    several areas of its energy relations, your bilateral meeting
    with Energy Minister Yildiz and the fourth round of the
    U.S.-Turkey Energy Working Group will be good opportunities
    to remind Turkey of key points of concern for the U.S. and
    the international community.

    POINTS TO RAISE
    ---------------

    ¶2. (C) You should raise the following points during the
    Working Group meeting:

    --Conclusion of a fair, transparent gas pricing and transit
    agreement with Azerbaijan will jump start the Southern
    Corridor and help with Azeri-Armenian relations.  The Turks
    understand the urgency and, by all indications, are serious
    about reaching an agreement soon. Encourage them to identify
    the specific areas in which we can help the process. (para 4)

    --Development of Iraq's energy sector is a shared priority
    for the U.S. and Turkey. Expect to hear ideas of how to
    deepen our cooperation in working toward this goal. (para 7
    and 8)

    --Turkey should be cautious of the Iran Sanctions Act as it
    considers potential Turkish Petroleum Company (TPAO)
    investment in Iran's energy sector. (para 9)

    --The U.S. has a sincere interest in having Turkey choose the
    best possible technology to meet its needs for nuclear power
    generation. (para 10)

    WATCH OUT FOR
    -------------

    ¶3. (C) The Turks are likely to raise the following points:

    --Further assurances that negotiations with the Azeris will
    be concluded soon without any concrete progress toward doing
    so. (para 4)

    --Interest in acting soon to secure an oil and/or gas field
    in northern Iraq.  There is some concern in the GoT that
    Turkey is missing out on opportunities while waiting for
    passage of the Iraqi Hydrocarbons Law. (para 7 and 8)

    --Expectation that some Iranian gas deals will be excluded
    from U.S. sanctions because Europeans need the gas and
    because the deals would be useful as a bargaining chip in
    U.S.-Iranian negotiations. (para 9)

    Caspian Gas
    -----------

    ¶4. (C) For many months the Turks have been telling us they
    are close to reaching agreement with Azerbaijan on Shah Deniz
    gas pricing and transit.  The increased specificity with
    which they have made this claim in recent weeks leads us to
    believe it is now more than just wishful thinking.  All of
    the officials with whom we have spoken recently have stressed
    that they understand the urgency of concluding this deal, and
    most have expressed optimism that it will happen soon.
    Energy Minister Yildiz told Amb. Jeffrey and Mark Parris a
    delegation would travel to Baku for further negotiations the
    week of November 23, and he was hopeful significant steps
    would be taken before PM Erdogan's December 7 visit to
    Washington.  For the first time, Yildiz said Turkey may be
    flexible on price in order to reach agreement.  He has
    traveled to many potential supplier countries in the past
    several months and has concluded that no other deals can go
    ahead until the agreement with the Azeris is decided.  Other
    officials have told us PM Erdogan wants an Azeri deal in hand
    for his next visit to Moscow, expected sometime later this
    year or in early 2010.

    ¶5. (C) Turkish interest in Turkmen gas remains strong.  Hakki
    Akil, the newly appointed deputy undersecretary for economic
    affairs at MFA, believes the Turkmen now realize they need a
    third alternative--other than Russia and China--for gas
    exports, and they may decide Turkey and Europe are that
    alternative.  On October 26 Turkey and Iran signed a
    memorandum of understanding that included transit of Turkmen
    gas through Iran to Turkey, reviving a decade-old proposal.
    The item comprises just a couple sentences in the MOU,
    however, and includes no detail.  MFA officials have told us
    Iran is not their preferred route, and some are skeptical
    Iran would allow Turkmen gas to transit if it cannot export
    its own gas to Turkey.  In a meeting with econ counselor
    November 2, TPAO President Mehmet Uysal speculated a swap
    would be arranged: Iran would import Turkmen gas in the north
    and export Iranian gas to Turkey from the south, although MFA
    officials maintain their preference remains for Turkmen gas
    to transit the Caspian.  The Turks are exploring options to
    do so without breaching the territory demarcation dispute.

    Domestic Factors
    ----------------

    ¶6. (SBU) Although supply for the domestic market continues to
    be the top objective in Turkey's energy dealings, the country
    has seen a significant drop in demand for gas due to the
    economic crisis and the rise in prices as the automatic
    pricing mechanism has taken effect over the past year.  This
    fall in demand, combined with deficiencies in the State
    Pipeline Company's (BOTAS's) infrastructure, have left Turkey
    facing sizable take-or-pay obligations--as high as USD 2
    billion for 2009 and potentially reaching a cumulative 14
    billion cubic meters (USD 3.5 billion assuming an average
    price of USD 250/thousand cubic meter) in 2010, according to
    some sector analysts.

    Iraq
    ----

    ¶7. (C) Turkish government and industry representatives
    repeatedly indicate that Iraqi energy is a priority.  In a
    November 18 meeting, Yildiz stressed to the ambassador that
    Turkey wants a field in Iraq, preferably from the central
    government.  He noted that the private sector, however, is
    very anxious to go into northern Iraq and many feel Turkey is
    being excluded from some of the best offerings because it is
    not dealing now with Erbil.  (Note: Although Yildiz did not
    offer details, he most likely meant the GoT wants a field in
    Iraq for Turkish Petroleum Company (TPAO), as it was the only
    Turkish company found eligible to bid on Iraqi tenders.)

    ¶8. (C) The Turks realize that development of a national gas
    system in Iraq would help Turkey, as it would address
    infrastructure development and determine Iraq's own energy
    needs, thereby clarifying export potential.  MFA officials
    have indicated they would like to share some ideas with us at
    the Energy Working Group meeting about deepening our
    cooperation on Iraqi energy development.  We have indicated
    we would be receptive to their suggestions.

    Iran
    ----

    ¶9. (C) In November 2008, Turkey and Iran signed a one-year
    memorandum on energy.  In October this year, they agreed to
    extend the MOU by three months to mid-February.  The MOU
    covers three items: transit of Turkmen gas (mentioned above),
    import of Iranian gas for Turkish and European markets, and
    TPAO development of South Pars gas field blocks.  The
    three-month extension was made to allow more time for TPAO
    and Iran to come to agreement on details of the third item.
    Uysal, however, has low expectations of reaching agreement
    but told us TPAO will continue the talks at the GoT's
    request.  Uysal also told us that both the Iranians and the
    Europeans expect the South Pars gas field will be exempt from
    U.S. sanctions because Europe needs the gas and because a
    deal could be a useful bargaining chip the in the
    U.S.-Iranian negotiations.  You should dispel this assumption
    if raised.

    Nuclear Tender
    --------------

    ¶10. (C) With the now final decision to cancel the nuclear
    tender won by the Russian-led consortium, the GoT is
    preparing to tender two nuclear plants at the same time, in
    Akkuyu and Sinop.  Yildiz told the ambassador they would

    expedite the tenders, as he wants the projects to begin in
    ¶2010.  The ambassador told Yildiz we want Turkey to choose
    the best technology for its needs, whichever company provides
    it.  In prior conversations, Energy Ministry officials have
    told us any new tender would have a public-private structure,
    completely different from the canceled tender.  When asked by
    the press about the new tenders, Yildiz said, "let's not call
    it a 'tender process,' but a 'process.'"  According to Faruk
    Demir, an energy sector advisor close to the government, such
    comments may allude to a plan whereby the GoT would create a
    new public nuclear power company that would invite various
    foreign private companies to take part in joint projects.

    Renewables
    ----------

    ¶11. (C) Draft legislation currently in parliament would amend
    the existing renewable energy law to include higher and
    differentiated feed-in tariffs for plants that go into
    operation before the end of 2015.  The parliament is not
    expected to pass the legislation this year, however, and
    Deputy PM Babacan has raised objections to the overall cost
    of the legislation--particularly the solar tariffs--both for
    public finances and for the GoT's overall aim of lowering
    energy costs in Turkey.  Analysts expect the solar tariffs
    will be revised downward, likely to levels too low to spur
    investment, but they do not expect significant changes to the
    other tariffs proposed in the current draft.

    JEFFREY

               "Visit Ankara's Classified Web Site at http://www.intelink.s
    gov.gov/wiki/Portal:Turkey"

`