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### Viewing cable 06DAMASCUS1357, KHADDAM'S NATIONAL SALVATION FRONT GARNERS MIXED

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
06DAMASCUS1357 | 2006-03-27 15:21 | 2011-05-04 00:00 | CONFIDENTIAL | Embassy Damascus

Appears in these articles:
http://www.al-akhbar.com/node/10402
http://www.al-akhbar.com/node/10403
http://www.al-akhbar.com/node/10404
http://www.al-akhbar.com/node/10405
http://www.al-akhbar.com/node/10406
http://www.al-akhbar.com/node/11322
http://www.al-akhbar.com/node/11323
http://www.al-akhbar.com/node/11324
http://www.al-akhbar.com/node/11325
http://www.al-akhbar.com/node/11326
http://www.al-akhbar.com/node/11327
http://www.al-akhbar.com/node/11328
http://www.al-akhbar.com/node/11329
http://www.al-akhbar.com/node/11330
http://www.al-akhbar.com/node/11331
http://www.al-akhbar.com/node/11332
http://www.al-akhbar.com/node/11333
http://www.al-akhbar.com/node/11336
http://www.al-akhbar.com/node/11337
http://www.al-akhbar.com/node/11338
http://www.al-akhbar.com/node/11339
http://www.al-akhbar.com/node/11340
http://www.al-akhbar.com/node/11341
http://www.al-akhbar.com/node/11342
http://www.al-akhbar.com/node/11343
http://www.al-akhbar.com/node/11344
http://www.al-akhbar.com/node/11345
http://www.al-akhbar.com/node/11346
http://www.al-akhbar.com/node/11348
http://www.al-akhbar.com/node/11349

`

    VZCZCXYZ0013
    OO RUEHWEB

    DE RUEHDM #1357/01 0861521
    ZNY CCCCC ZZH
    O 271521Z MAR 06
    FM AMEMBASSY DAMASCUS
    TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 7937
    INFO RUEHXK/ARAB ISRAELI COLLECTIVE
    RUEHGB/AMEMBASSY BAGHDAD 0714

` `

    C O N F I D E N T I A L DAMASCUS 001357

    SIPDIS

    SIPDIS

    LONDON FOR TSOU, PARIS FOR ZEYA

    E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/23/2016
    TAGS: PGOV PHUM SY
    SUBJECT: KHADDAM'S NATIONAL SALVATION FRONT GARNERS MIXED
    REVIEWS

    REF: DAMASCUS 0702

    Classified By: Charge d'Affaires Stephen A. Seche for
    reasons 1.4(b)/(d)

    ¶1.    (C)  SUMMARY:  The March 17 unveiling in Brussels of
    the National Salvation Front (NSF) has received mixed reviews
    from civil society activists and other contacts.  While
    activists distanced themselves publicly from the NSF, some
    contacts took a more nuanced position privately, maintaining
    that former VP Abdul Halim Khaddam, while not acceptable as
    the leader of the opposition, could play a useful role in
    weakening the regime.  Damascus Declaration signers expressed
    varying degrees of concern about the extent to which
    Khaddam's effort would divide the opposition and pointed to
    differences between the Declaration's program and that of the
    NSF.  Several also voiced puzzlement and disappointment over
    the motivations of the Muslim Brothers in signing on to the
    NSF.  One contact noted that Khaddam is serving a useful role
    in attracting anti-regime support from key Alawite figures
    who were pillars in the regime of Hafez al-Asad, while many
    contacts simply expressed puzzlement about what Khaddam is
    really up to.  End Summary.

    ¶2.    (C)  The March 17 announcement in Brussels of the
    creation of the National Salvation Front (NSF), a
    fourteen-member committee of Syrian exile opposition figures
    led by former Vice President Khaddam and Muslim Brotherhood
    chief Sadreddin Bayanouni, has received mixed reaction from
    civil society figures, opposition activists, and other
    contacts.  A number of contacts noted that the identities of
    the majority of the participating exile politicians remain
    unknown.  Press reports have offered only a limited list of
    named participants: Khaddam, Bayanouni, U.S.-based Syrian
    National Congress chief Nagib al-Ghadban, U.S.-based Syrian
    Liberal National Democratic Party SYG Husam al-Deiri, and
    Obeid Nahad, the editor of London-based thisissyria.net.
    Press reports noted other signatories included unidentified
    representatives from pan-Arabist, liberal, Islamist, Kurdish,
    and communist groups.

    ¶3.    (C)  ANNOUNCEMENT LONG EXPECTED: The announcement of a
    Khaddam/Bayanouni partnership has been expected by local
    contacts for several weeks.  In late February, key opposition
    figure XXXXXXXXXXXX told Poloff that he had rejected overtures
    by Khaddam and Bayanouni to join the front (ref A).  Other
    activists had expected the announcement to be made on March 9
    to mark the 43rd anniversary of the Ba'ath Party's seizure of
    power.

    ¶4.  (C)  INTERNAL OPPOSITION PUBLICLY DISTANCES ITSELF FROM
    NSF:  Internal opposition figures quickly distanced
    themselves from the NSF. Hassan Abdulazeem, spokesman for
    both the Damascus Declaration and the National Democratic
    Front, told the regional newspaper al-Hayat that "we have no
    connection at all with the Brussels meeting... the
    preliminary stand toward what happened in Brussels is that it
    was outside the Damascus Declaration framework and has
    nothing to do with it."  He added that the Damascus
    Declaration provisional committee would soon confer on an
    official stance vis-a-vis the NSF, with the expanded Damascus
    Declaration group scheduled to hold an expanded meeting on
    April 6.

    ¶5.  (C)  WHILE PRIVATE VIEWS MORE NUANCED:  In private,
    however, many opposition figures and activists are willing to
    entertain the notion of a Khaddam-Bayanouni alliance, with
    some even offering cautious praise.  Prominent human rights
    activist XXXXXXXXXXXX called the agreement a good step for
    the opposition movement at large, noting that the Khaddam and
    Bayanouni combine Khaddam's "best political connections" with
    the MB's bona fide opposition credentials.

    ¶6.  (C)  SALVATION FRONT CHALLENGE TO INTERNAL OPPOSITION?  A
    number of internal opposition figures also described the NSF
    as a challenge to a relatively immobile domestic opposition.
    In an interview with al-Hayat on March 20, senior opposition
    figure and Damascus Declaration signatory Riad al-Turk said
    that "the formation of the Front is punishment for the
    Damascus Declaration leaders for lagging behind and
    hesitating."

    ¶7.  (C) XXXXXXXXXXXX told PolChief March 23 that, unlike other
    opposition figures like Abdulazeem, he does not categorically
    reject the Khaddam-Bayanouni initiative, although he does not
    accept Khaddam as leader of the opposition.  "We don't oppose
    him, but our program is different."  XXXXXXXXXXXX noted that the NSF
    initiative contained two critical mistakes.  First, its
    position on the Kurdish issue goes beyond calling for
    nationality for all Syrian Kurds and full cultural rights, to
    the point where it will encourage Kurdish separatism and
    provoke conflicts with the Arab majority; and second, it does
    not make explicit that Khaddam supports democracy in Syria.

    ¶8.  (C) KHADDAM'S ALAWITE SUPPORT:  Others like former MP
    XXXXXXXXXXXX viewed Khaddam as acceptable as a "bridging
    figure" between the opposition and disenchanted regime (and
    former regime) elements, noting that he believed Khaddam
    understood the limits of his role. XXXXXXXXXXXX also alleged that
    Khaddam has important, but thus far silent, support from key
    Alawites who served as pillars in the regime of Hafez
    al-Asad, including Ali Duba, Ali Zeyout, and Izzedine Nasser.
    They believe that "there is no future for the Alawites with
    Bashar" and that a Khaddam-led Sunni transition could protect
    them from any post-Asad regime. They also see Khaddam as a
    figure who would ensure the safety and stability of the
    larger Alawite community, said XXXXXXXXXXXX.

    ¶9.  (C) SKEPTICISM ON KHADDAM ALSO PALPABLE: On the other
    hand, some activists have criticized the Khaddam-bayanouni
    coalition from a variety of sides.  Human rights activist and
    Islamist sympathizer XXXXXXXXXXXX said that Bayanouni's
    decision to join forces with Khaddam is "bad for Islamists
    here."  Khaddam has, thus far, refused to take responsibility
    for his part in the regime's crimes (a point also made by
    Turk and others).  According to XXXXXXXXXXXX, Khaddam's record of
    abuses dates back to his governorship of Hama in 1964, when
    the first crackdown against the MB took place.  He must first
    admit his responsibility if "he wants to lead us again."

    ¶10. (C) FEARS KHADDAM IS SPLITTING OPPOSITION:  While
    accepting that Khaddam is a useful tool to de-legitimize the
    regime, because of the secrets he knows, activist
    intellectual XXXXXXXXXXXX said it was clear from the way
    Khaddam spoke in interviews that he saw his role in much more
    ambitious terms. XXXXXXXXXXXX adamantly rejected any notion that
    Khaddam could lead the opposition, insisting to Polchief that
    "we have ways to make him fail if he tries." XXXXXXXXXXXX expressed
    great puzzlement at what motivated the MB to associate itself
    with Khaddam on the NSF, when they had played and continued
    to play a critical role in the Damascus Declaration group.
    "It doesn't make sense unless Khaddam has a putsch planned,"
    said XXXXXXXXXXXX. He criticized the NSF for "splitting the
    opposition" and undercutting the Damascus Declaration.
    Finally, he expressed concerns that Khaddam wanted to "save
    the regime" (the Ba'ath Party and the security services) by
    getting rid of Bashar al-Asad and his inner circle.  He
    described this notion as totally unacceptable to the internal
    opposition.  While the Ba'ath Party could remain in place to
    compete in a post-Asad democratic system, the leadership of
    the security services and military would need to be purged so
    as to transform them from protectors of a regime into
    institutions serving the interests of Syria, insisted XXXXXXXXXXXX.

    ¶11.  (C) Both XXXXXXXXXXXX and XXXXXXXXXXXX mentioned plans in the next few
    weeks for the Damascus Declaration group to form a leadership
    group to put in place a plan of action. XXXXXXXXXXXX mentioned plans
    to name 17 insiders and eight external leaders, including MB
    figures.  XXXXXXXXXXXX called these plans critical for the future of
    the Damascus Declaration group while XXXXXXXXXXXX was more ambiguous,
    hinting with some frustration that perhaps these plans had
    been undercut by the NSF announcement in Brussels.

    ¶12.  (C) In the meantime, contacts who speak regularly to
    regime leaders continue to express puzzlement at what Khaddam
    is trying to do.  XXXXXXXXXXXX, a foreign policy analyst, said
    that Khaddam is "playing roulette," recognizing that he has
    no external military support for a coup and betting that
    UNIIIC chief Brammertz will directly accuse Asad in June of
    complicity in the killing of Hariri.  XXXXXXXXXXXX called this a
    bad bet because the Russians "will not allow" things to reach
    that level and because even if it happens, Asad has made
    clear publicly that he is determined to remain in power and
    fight such accusations.  Gadfly economist and former deputy
    minister XXXXXXXXXXXX, XXXXXXXXXXXX said that Khaddam's
    capabilities had been overrated.  "He can't do anything in
    Syria because he has no support."

    ¶13.  (C) COMMENT:  As these reactions indicate, the response
    to Khaddam's NSF initiative has been all over the map.  It is
    clear that the former VP continues to cast an imposing shadow
    over both regime and opposition figures in Syria, regardless
    of dismissals voiced about his lack of external support.
    Many attribute the regime's current nervousness (in addition
    to worries over Brammertz's intentions) to worries over what
    Khaddam has planned and what he might say next.  Internal
    opposition figures for their part are consumed with fears
    that Khaddam may be trying to hijack their largely immobile
    movement and may inadvertenly divide and weaken them.
    Khaddam also stirs fears among them about a compromise
    opposition position that would accept leaving much of the
    regime intact.  Thus far, Khaddam seems to have stirred up
    both the regime and internal opposition figures  and even
    mobilized them a bit, without, as far as we can tell,
    weakening them perceptibly.

    SECHE

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