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### Viewing cable 09VANCOUVER125, BRITISH COLUMBIA GRUDGINGLY MOVES TOWARD PROVINCIAL

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
09VANCOUVER125 | 2009-05-05 23:30 | 2011-04-28 00:00 | UNCLASSIFIED | Consulate Vancouver

`

    VZCZCXRO7015
    RR RUEHGA RUEHHA RUEHMT RUEHQU
    DE RUEHVC #0125/01 1252330
    ZNR UUUUU ZZH
    R 052330Z MAY 09
    FM AMCONSUL VANCOUVER
    TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 5188
    INFO RUCNCAN/ALL CANADIAN POSTS COLLECTIVE
    RUEHVC/AMCONSUL VANCOUVER 7722

` `

    UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 VANCOUVER 000125

    SIPDIS

    E.O. 12958: N/A
    TAGS: CA PGOV
    SUBJECT: BRITISH COLUMBIA GRUDGINGLY MOVES TOWARD PROVINCIAL
    ELECTIONS

    VANCOUVER 00000125  001.2 OF 002

    ¶1. Summary: British Columbia heads into May 12 provincial
    elections with a sagging economy and a fairly apathetic voting
    public. Premier Gordon Campbell's BC Liberals maintain a slight
    lead in polling but the real battle will be fought
    riding-by-riding, with the NDP moving closer, especially in the
    interior and on Vancouver Island.  Key issues are the economy
    and crime, which should be the BC Liberals' issues.  The contest
    is really theirs to lose but missteps by both parties, and a
    general lack of enthusiasm for either leader, are leaving BC
    voters looking for their "Obama."  The winner in the end will be
    the party that is able to get their faithful to the polls in the
    largest numbers.  End Summary.

    --------------------
    Nobody's Perfect
    --------------------

    ¶2.  BC will elect 85 MLAs on May 12.  With six new seats and
    many incumbents not returning, almost thirty percent of the
    members will be new faces.  The economy is the number one issue
    for the elections.  The past eight years have seen tremendous
    growth in BC's economy and the BC Liberals hope to use their
    record of economic stewardship to win the election.  But the
    economic tailspin is hitting home and recent numbers, especially
    rapidly rising unemployment figures for BC, are putting a damper
    on Campbell's campaign slogan "Keep B.C. Strong."  Campbell's
    attacks on NDP leader Carole James' lack of economic experience
    resonate in the business community and suburban lower mainland.
    But the NDP maintains a strong lead in the interior and on
    Vancouver Island, areas hit hardest by the forestry industry
    collapse. According to political watchers we have contacted,
    Campbell is so unpopular in these areas he was urged by advisors
    not to appear with the candidates and to leave the campaigning
    to the locals.

    ¶3. Crime is the second most important issue in most BC polls.
    Again, the BC Liberals have traditionally had the upper hand
    with this issue in elections, but the spate of gang violence
    over the past 18 months has taken its toll on the public's
    perception of their ability to handle the problem.  Several high
    profile and sweeping arrests in the past few weeks have boosted
    the BC Liberal's position.  But the resignation of John van
    Dongen from the Solicitor General position, the province's top
    cop, over speeding tickets has proven a big embarrassment for
    Campbell and his BC Liberals.

    ¶4. A big embarrassment for Carole James and the NDP has been
    criticism from what would normally be her own constituency over
    her stance against BC's carbon tax.  The carbon tax has been
    controversial since its inception last July and James was hoping
    to build on her opposition to this policy as a cornerstone of
    her campaign.  But her opposition to the tax backfired when
    several prominent environmentalists, including Canada's most
    famous environmentalist, David Suzuki, strongly criticized her
    position.  In his press conference, Suzuki did not take a clear
    political stance against the NDP, but he showed visible anger at
    James and, according to one of our press contacts, all but
    called her a hypocrite.  The issue is primarily an
    urban/suburban concern impacting marginal BC Liberal ridings
    targeted by the NDP and demonstrates disunity among its base
    that is costing the NDP.

    --------------------------------------------
    Single Transferable Vote - Say What?
    --------------------------------------------

    ¶5. B.C. residents are also facing a ballot initiative that could
    significantly change the way Members of the Legislative Assembly
    (MLAs) are elected in the future.  The single transferable vote
    (STV) proposal would alter the province's electoral system from
    first-past-the-post to a system of larger ridings where voters
    would rank order candidates and a complex counting system would
    determine multiple representatives.  The system would send to
    the legislature not only the top vote getter, but as many as
    seven contenders, depending on the size of the riding and the
    percentage of votes received.  The STV system first appeared on
    the provincial ballot in 2005 and fell just two percentage
    points short of the 60 percent of votes needed to change the
    law.  Supporters of the system are hoping to make up that
    deficit this time and get the system approved. Proponents claim
    it is a fairer and more representative system that would allow
    smaller parties (such as the Greens) a better chance to be
    included in the provincial government.  However polls show most
    voters do not really understand how STV works and, with the
    economy so prominent on voters' minds, the requirement to get 60
    percent for adoption may be out of reach for such an obscure
    issue.

    ¶6. Comment:  If the BC Liberals can galvanize their base and hit
    hard on their economic record they will be the party forming the
    next provincial government.  But missteps, apathy and Gordon
    Campbell's lackluster popularity are hurting the party.  Carole

    VANCOUVER 00000125  002.2 OF 002

    James is viewed more favorably as a person, but while a recent
    post-debate poll had James narrowly winning the event, Campbell
    won the question of who looked more like a premier.  With no one
    grabbing the public's attention as an outright leader, the race
    is shaping up as a race to the polls, literally.  Whoever gets
    his constituency out in the biggest numbers is going to win and,
    in that regard, everything from the traffic to the weather could
    determine the next provincial government.  End Comment.
    CHICOLA

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