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### Viewing cable 07OTTAWA351, LIBERAL ENVIRONMENT CRITIC SHARES VIEWS ON CLIMATE

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
07OTTAWA351 | 2007-02-26 18:40 | 2011-04-28 00:00 | UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY | Embassy Ottawa

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    VZCZCXRO8033
    RR RUEHGA RUEHHA RUEHQU RUEHVC
    DE RUEHOT #0351/01 0571840
    ZNR UUUUU ZZH
    R 261840Z FEB 07
    FM AMEMBASSY OTTAWA
    TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 5068
    INFO RUCNCAN/ALL CANADIAN POSTS COLLECTIVE
    RHEBAAA/DEPT OF ENERGY WASHDC
    RUEAEPA/EPA WASHDC
    RHEHAAA/WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON DC

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    UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 OTTAWA 000351

    SIPDIS

    SENSITIVE
    SIPDIS

    DEPT FOR WHA, G, OES, EB
    WHITE HOUSE FOR CEQ
    DOE FOR P&I
    EPA FOR OFFICE OF THE ADMINISTRATOR AND INTERNATIONAL
    AFFAIRS

    E.O. 12958: N/A
    TAGS: SENV PINR CA
    SUBJECT: LIBERAL ENVIRONMENT CRITIC SHARES VIEWS ON CLIMATE
    CHANGE DEBATE

    REF: OTTAWA 0050

    Sensitive But Unclassified.  Not for release outside USG
    channels.

    ¶1. (SBU) Summary: Liberal MP and environment critic David
    McGuinty (younger brother of Ontario premier Dalton McGuinty)
    has substantial experience on economic and environmental
    issues at the national and international levels and appears a
    formidable opponent to counter Tory environment Minister John
    Baird in the battle for Canadian hearts and minds on the
    environment and climate change.  The former IVP participant
    appears well-disposed to the United States and recognizes
    American leadership at all levels, public and private, in
    addressing the climate change challenge.  He thinks the Tory
    government's efforts to sell itself as "green" and a
    responsible steward of the environment will soon founder and
    implied the Liberals are ready to see the government fall
    over the budget.  End summary.

    ¶2. (SBU) ECON Minister-Counselor and Econ Specialist met with
    Ottawa-South Member of Parliament David McGuinty on February
    ¶21.  McGuinty, a fluently bilingual environmental and natural
    resources lawyer, is articulate and extremely knowledgeable
    about the environment.  First elected to Parliament in June
    2004 and then again in January 2006, the 47-year old McGuinty
    looks like a perfect choice as Opposition Environment critic,
    a position to which he was named in late January 2007.

    ¶3. (U) A former IVP participant - he was just starting his
    program in Washington on 9/11 - McGuinty praised the program
    and his experience in it; in particular he told us he was
    astounded to see first-hand how the interplay between
    industry, think tanks and governments in the United States
    enriches the policy process.  He praised the efforts of a
    range of public and private actors, including the federal
    government, in addressing climate change; and he is well
    aware the United States spends significantly more on climate
    change S&T and multilateral environmental efforts than any
    other country.  McGuinty clearly is well-informed on,
    understands, and respects the environmental leadership shown
    by the United States over the past 30 years.

    ¶4. (U) Before his election to Parliament McGuinty was
    president (from 1995 to 2003) of the National Roundtable on
    the Environment and the Economy, a body created by the GoC in
    1988 to examine the environmental and economic implications
    of high-priority issues such as climate change and to offer
    advice on how best to reconcile the sometimes competing
    interests of economic prosperity and environmental
    conservation.  During his tenure, he led the development of
    Canada's Environment and Sustainable Development Indicators.

    ¶5. (SBU) McGuinty agreed with EMIN's observation that Canada
    had little reason to crow about its climate change
    "successes" under the Liberals, particularly as enumerated by
    then Prime Minister Martin as he disparaged the U.S. as
    lacking moral fiber at the UNFCCC COP 11 in Montreal in
    November 2005.  (Canada,s current GHG emissions are
    approximately 760 megatonnes per year, or about 35 percent,
    over its Kyoto target of 563 Mt).  He said that Martin's
    remarks were a sign of a "drowning man" knowing he was in
    electoral trouble.  Nevertheless, McGuinty claimed that then
    Environment Minister Stephane Dion's "Green Plan" of June
    2005 did constitute a substantive policy framework that would
    have yielded solid results had the Liberals retained power.
    Qhave yielded solid results had the Liberals retained power.
    He noted specifically that in late 2005 the GoC had
    negotiated a 45 megatonne reduction in GHG emissions from
    "Large Final Emitters" (i.e., major point source emitters
    such as power plants and cement plants) which would have
    yielded its reductions in the 2008 to 2012 timeframe.  These
    plans were discarded when the Tories took power in February
    ¶2006.  McGuinty added that it was clear to all observers the
    incoming Tory government did not take climate change, or the
    environment more broadly, seriously when they came into
    office and only began to react when polls showed the
    electorate making the environment (with Kyoto as a proxy) a
    top of mind issue (see reftel).

    ¶6. (SBU) McGuinty thinks that the electorate will see soon
    the Harper government has "no substance" to offer on the
    environment.  In particular he thinks the electorate will see

    OTTAWA 00000351  002 OF 002

    the Tory promise of C$1.5 billion for the provinces (C$350
    million for Quebec alone) for climate change and
    environmental initiatives as a tellingly tiny investment for
    a government that can expect a C$15-plus billion surplus this
    fiscal year. (The Liberal Green Plan of 2005 promised C$3
    billion for similar efforts, he told us).  In addition,
    formally announcing this funding in the March 19 federal
    budget, just a week before the Quebec provincial elections on
    March 26, is a blatantly political roll of the dice, and
    McGuinty estimates the Bloc Quebecois may in fact oppose the
    budget despite this multi-million dollar enticement.  He
    intimated the Liberals and NDP are thinking along similar
    lines.  Finally, he told us that that when Bill C-30, the
    Climate Change Act, emerges from its Parliamentary committee
    re-draft at the end of March (assuming the government does
    not fall on the budget vote) it will be "unrecognizable" when
    compared with the Conservatives' original proposal.  And, he
    concluded, it would be in perfect symmetry with Bill C-288,
    the Liberal "Kyoto" compliance bill that has passed the House
    of Commons and is now in the Senate.

    ¶7. (SBU) Comment:  McGuinty is forceful, knowledgeable and
    authoritative, and seems to provide the Liberals with a good
    foil to new Environment Minister Baird.  Nonetheless, his
    comments on Tory efforts to combat climate change broke no
    new ground and contained little that would not be expected in
    what has become a highly politicized debate.  What was
    noteworthy was McGuinty's suggestion the Liberals are still
    looking seriously at using the budget to force the government
    to fall this spring.  In light of these comments, it is
    perhaps significant that he made no mention of Stephane
    Dion's leadership abilities and obvious connection to the
    environment and climate change files.  End Comment.

    Visit Canada's Classified Web Site at
    http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/wha/ottawa

    WILKINS

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