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### Viewing cable 06QUITO2638, ELECTION UPDATE: CANDIDATES ACTIVE BUT VOTERS NOT

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
06QUITO2638 | 2006-11-01 22:10 | 2011-05-02 00:12 | UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY | Embassy Quito

`

    VZCZCXYZ0009
    OO RUEHWEB

    DE RUEHQT #2638/01 3052212
    ZNR UUUUU ZZH
    O 012212Z NOV 06
    FM AMEMBASSY QUITO
    TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 5591
    INFO RUEHBO/AMEMBASSY BOGOTA PRIORITY 6128
    RUEHCV/AMEMBASSY CARACAS PRIORITY 2135
    RUEHLP/AMEMBASSY LA PAZ NOV 0187
    RUEHPE/AMEMBASSY LIMA PRIORITY 1111
    RUEHGL/AMCONSUL GUAYAQUIL PRIORITY 1370
    RHEFDIA/DIA WASHDC
    RHMFISS/CDR USSOUTHCOM MIAMI FL

` `

    UNCLAS QUITO 002638

    SIPDIS

    SENSITIVE
    SIPDIS

    PLEASE PASS ALSO TO USOAS AND USAID/LAC

    E.O. 12958: N/A
    TAGS: PGOV KDEM EC
    SUBJECT: ELECTION UPDATE: CANDIDATES ACTIVE BUT VOTERS NOT
    FIRED UP

    REF: QUITO 2617

    ¶1.  (SBU) Summary: The second round of campaigning is well
    underway, with leftist candidate Rafael Correa seeking to
    re-position himself, using symbolic meetings with authority
    figures to attract centrist voters.  For his part,
    center-right candidate Alvaro Noboa is sticking with the
    formula that led to his surprising come-from-behind victory
    in the first round--doling out charitable donations and
    populist promises of better days for the poor under a Noboa
    government.  Noboa appears confident of his lead in the
    polls, while Correa is complaining of financial difficulties
    and predicting further (unsubstantiated) fraud.  The E-vote
    scandal continues to play out, resulting in the provisional
    arrest of a former OAS election official.  Comments by OAS
    SecGen Insulza from Washington are being interpreted as
    indicating Rafael Bielsa will return to lead the OAS
    observation mission for the second round of voting on
    November 26.  End Summary.

    New Polls Expected Soon
    -----------------------

    ¶2.  (SBU) Fresh poll results are expected to become public
    here soon, but were not yet available at the time of this
    report.  The head of Cedatos, one of the more credible of
    polling organizations, told us preliminary results of a poll
    conducted October 28-29, did not vary greatly from the week
    before (which had Noboa leading Correa by a 16-point margin).

    E-Vote Scandal Fallout Continues
    --------------------------------

    ¶3.  (SBU) Santiago Murray, the former OAS election official
    who acted as spokesman for the Brazilian firm E-Vote, was
    taken into custody by authorities on October 31, according to
    press reports.  E-Vote was contracted by the Supreme
    Electoral Tribunal (TSE) to conduct a preliminary quick
    count, but its software crashed late on election night after
    tabulating only 70% of the presidential vote.  Murray was
    arrested on a warrant issued by the 14th criminal court of
    Pichincha at the request of the Public Ministry (Attorney
    General's Office).  He was later transferred to hospital
    after respiratory failure.

    ¶4.  (SBU) The E-Vote failure also led to calls for
    investigation of the TSE for irregularities in the handling
    of the contract (which was awarded late, without endorsement
    from the Solicitor and Comptroller General's office).  The
    Supreme Court declined to rescind TSE member immunity, so the
    investigation has been blocked.  For its part, the Social
    Christian Party (PSC) on October 30 called TSE president
    Xavier Cazar (and PSC member) before its disciplinary
    committee, to explain his actions in the case.  No decisions
    were announced.

    Correa Campaign:  Ambassador, Nebot, Church
    -------------------------------------------

    ¶5.  (SBU) After meeting with the Ambassador on October 26
    (RefTel), presidential finalist Rafael Correa met with
    influential Guayaquil mayor Jaime Nebot on October 27.
    Correa publicized both meetings, apparently seeking to
    moderate his radical anti-establishment image.  After meeting
    with Nebot, Correa pledged his government's support for
    Nebot's autonomy proposal, pending before Congress.  During a
    separate meeting with mayors from Guayas' Santa Elena
    peninsula, Correa promised his government's support for their
    demands for separation from Guayas province.

    ¶6.  (U) On October 31, Correa held another high-profile
    meeting, this time with the Catholic Church's Episcopal
    Conference, reportedly to describe his plan of government and
    his own Catholic faith.  After the private meeting, Correa
    told the press that he assured the Church leaders he would
    not "use" his religious faith for political purposes, or
    attempt to buy votes with "alms" unlike his rival.

    ¶7.  (SBU) Correa used the media exposure on his Church
    meeting to accuse Noboa of cowardice for ducking a final
    presidential debate, and acknowledged a $160,000 campaign
    deficit entering the second round.  Electoral authorities

    revealed that Correa spent $40,763 between October 27-29;
    Noboa spent $54,177 during the same period.  The official
    spending limit for the second round campaign is $687,000,
    which amounts to one quarter of the overall campaign spending
    limit.  An anti-Noboa email circulating here on October 17
    accused Noboa of having spent $6,275 million so far
    (including pre-campaign spending to boost his image), and
    highlighted the 2002 Human Rights Watch report "Harvest of
    Shame" criticizing Noboa's labor practices on banana
    plantations which supply his firm.

    Noboa Campaign Promises
    -----------------------

    ¶8.  (U) For his part, Alvaro Noboa told the press that with
    all due respect to Ambassadors, mayors and the Church, he
    would eschew all such meetings and concentrate his campaign
    efforts only on reaching out to the people.  Visiting cities
    in Los Rios province, he proposed to raise the Human
    Development handout to the poor from its current $15/month to
    $35.  He also pledged to provide credit at low interest
    rates, generate employment and trade, and to provide greater
    resources to provinces and municipalities.  He thanked voters
    for their generosity and pledged to continue to respond in
    the same spirit.  He claimed a Noboa government would deal
    harshly with anyone not willing to pay the official wholesale
    price for bananas (note:  Correa had made the same pledge
    earlier and claims Noboa is not paying his contractors the
    full price).

    OAS EOM Stays the Course; Correa Renews Attacks
    --------------------------------------------- --

    ¶9.  (SBU) Press here reported on October 31 that OAS SecGen
    Insulza had strongly affirmed OAS confidence in the OAS
    Election Observation Mission headed by former Argentine FM
    Rafael Bielsa.  "We are perfectly happy with our mission's
    work in Ecuador," Insulza reportedly told local media outlet
    "Ecuavisa."  Asked for comment, Correa reportedly renewed his
    call for Bielsa's removal for "unpardonable acts of omission
    and commission" during the first round of voting.  On October
    31, Correa again called for the removal of the TSE board and
    the Defense Minister, for alleged fraud.

    Comment
    -------

    ¶10.  (SBU) Although the candidates have been as active as
    ever, most Ecuadorians appear to be taking a breather from
    the campaign.  We expect public interest to grow, especially
    if Correa is able to narrow the gap in the polls.  Noboa's
    apparent hope of coasting to victory by avoiding debate and
    trumpeting his lead may not be a smart strategy.  If voter
    disaffection continues or grows, it could become an important
    factor in this election.  Given a choice between these two
    candidates at opposite sides of the political spectrum, we
    expect many voters to reject both, by nullifying their
    ballots.  That form of abstention could easily exceed 30%;
    with both candidates enjoying a reliable hard-core vote of
    about 25%, the relatively narrow range of swing voters that
    will ultimately decide this election will make this election
    less predictable than the polls might indicate.
    BROWN

`