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### Viewing cable 05QUITO1190, ECUADOR: DEMOCRATIC ACTION PLANNING

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
05QUITO1190 | 2005-05-23 17:05 | 2011-05-02 00:12 | UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY | Embassy Quito

`

    This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

` `

    UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 QUITO 001190

    SIPDIS

    SENSITIVE

    DEPARTMENT PLEASE PASS TO USOAS

    E.O. 12958: N/A
    TAGS: PGOV KDEM PREL EC
    SUBJECT: ECUADOR: DEMOCRATIC ACTION PLANNING

    ¶1.  (SBU) Summary:  With democratic stability set back by
    repeated irregular changes of government, the mission has
    begun a process to take stock of our democracy-support
    efforts and chart new directions.  That action planning
    process will culminate, we hope, in a clear analysis of the
    challenge ahead.  That analysis will, in turn, become the
    basis for a range of policy and program options to support
    democratic strengthening.  Ecuadorian society, meanwhile, is
    launching its own debate about possible democratic reforms,
    which will affect the realm of possibility.  We face our own
    policy constraints in Nethercutt and impending TIP sanctions,
    but aim to maximize the impact of limited resources in
    support of democracy here.  End Summary.

    Democracy is Broken Here
    ------------------------

    ¶2.  (SBU) None of the last three democratically elected
    presidents of Ecuador has successfully served out his term.
    During the same nine-year period, seven presidents, not
    counting a triumvirate that lasted only three hours, have
    ruled Ecuador.  The most recent president to be deposed was
    Lucio Gutierrez on April 20.  Gutierrez had himself
    participated in a 2000 coup that brought down his
    predecessor, Jamil Mahuad.  The first democratically elected
    president in this recent cycle of instability was Abdala
    Bucaram, who lasted seven months in office.  Ironically, by
    letting Bucaram return from exile in Panama in March,
    Gutierrez fueled popular protests that sealed his own fate.
    Bucaram is now back in Panama.  Mahuad lives in the United
    States.  Gutierrez is now living in Brazil.

    Diagnosis and Prescriptions
    ---------------------------

    ¶3.   (SBU) The fall of Gutierrez involved complex
    constitutional questions, but the problem of instability in
    Ecuador stems from a different popular conception of what
    democracy means.  Most Ecuadorians believe it means the
    support of the people.  When a significant segment of the
    people are dissatisfied enough to mobilize, they demand
    change from the streets rather than wait patiently for a
    chance to decide at the ballot box.  Political elites are
    complicit in this process, seeking to use popular discontent
    as a weapon to advance their own interests.  While the causes
    of popular discontent and the composition of the popular
    forces which provoked the fall of the last three elected
    presidents have varied, the result has been the same:  an
    irregular change of government caused by popular protests in
    the capital.

    ¶4.  (SBU) Most Ecuadorians took the recent irregular fall of
    the government in stride and were initially diverted by the
    process of selecting a new government and cabinet.  With that
    over, the national debate is shifting toward the need for
    political reforms.  While no consensus has emerged, several
    possible elements are clear.

    -- Executive:  the GOE, beholden to street protesters for its
    creation, wishes to be responsive to citizen calls for
    reform.  President Palacio has offered a vaguely defined
    public dialogue process, to be managed by the Vice President.
     The dialogue process is intended to generate ideas for
    possible inclusion in a popular referendum.  Palacio met with
    UNDP and other international representatives on May 19 to
    publicly request support and technical assistance to
    facilitate the process.

    --   Congress:  Congress has completed its Supreme Court
    reform, which now moves toward implementation.  Congress will
    also debate possible electoral reforms (to regulate
    proportional representation, permit representation by
    districts) and constitutional changes (the creation of a
    Senate, to balance national and local interests).  Some have
    also floated the idea of a semi-parliamentary system through
    the institution of a prime minister, accountable to Congress.
     Congress is already the venue for debate over a reform to
    expedite the referendum process, which currently includes a
    year-long cooling off period before constitutional reforms
    can be voted on.

    -- Judicial:  With the Supreme Court on the (probably rocky)
    road toward recovery, several other judicial issues linger.
    The Supreme Electoral Tribunal has been re-conformed to
    reflect the new balance in Congress.  Some, however, are
    calling for constitutional reform to make the tribunal
    independent of political parties, rather than controlled by
    them.  The Constitutional Court, meanwhile, remains to be
    reconstituted by Congress.  The selection of an Attorney
    General is also pending, awaiting the reconstitution of the
    National Judicial Council by the eventual Supreme Court.

    -- International Organizations/Donors:  On May 16 President
    Palacio and VP Serrano met with international organizations
    including UNDP, UNICEF, the Andean Community of Nations to
    request financial and technical support for the government's
    social dialogue (the OAS representative was invited but did
    not attend).  UN representative Mauricio Valdes later told
    the Ambassador that the UN had concerns about becoming
    involved in an ill-defined dialogue process, after
    unsuccessful experiences elsewhere.  Former Spanish Prime
    Minister Felipe Gonzalez visited Ecuador May 16-18 on behalf
    of the Madrid Club.  He privately urged Palacio to lead the
    dialogue process himself, and to be pragmatic in focusing his
    plan of government.

    -- Civil Society/Protest Movement:  Has been invited to help
    organize and participate in national dialogue with the GOE.
    Some are demanding guarantees from Palacio that he will
    submit any FTA with the U.S. to a referendum before signing,
    and will include the issue of whether to hold a constituent
    assembly (dissolving Congress) on the referendum.  Follow-up
    protests against the GOE have fallen flat, perhaps reducing
    their influence.  Civil society groups have announced a
    100-day deadline for the government to develop its referendum
    proposal, with civil society input.

    USG Interests
    -------------

    ¶5.   (SBU) The question of whether our efforts prolonged the
    tenure of the last government is moot; our efforts to promote
    democracy, as we know it, have again failed to bring an
    elected government to term here.  Political instability has
    high costs and elevates risk, economic and otherwise.
    Irregular changes of government are inherently unpredictable,
    put ongoing USG interests at risk, and force us to start over
    with a new government.  While we are doing so with the
    Palacio government, the Ambassador also launched an internal
    process to evaluate the problem of democratic instability,
    and seek to devise options to address it.

    Action Plan
    -----------

    ¶6.   (SBU) AID has led the mission's democracy action
    planning process, inviting full participation from other
    country team elements.  One focus is necessarily short-term,
    since the democracy debate is in full swing here, but a
    parallel process is focusing on longer-term structural
    issues.  We have also launched dialogues with international
    financial institutions and donor representatives, who have
    agreed to develop a common framework to support democracy and
    judicial strengthening, in a coordinated dialogue with the
    government.  The mission's review process will culminate at a
    Country Team retreat which will define a concise problem
    statement concerning democratic instability, and chart a
    range of short-term actions to address longer-term problems,
    for consideration by incoming mission leadership (and
    ultimately Washington agencies).

    ¶7.  (SBU) The outcome of this process will be affected by a
    host of factors and constraints, among them (on our side)
    existing Nethercutt and impending TIP sanctions, which will
    force us to withdraw direct support for the GOE and channel
    assistance through civil society, and vote against Ecuador in
    the International Financial Institutions.  While these
    constraints have their own merits, they will complicate the
    task of supporting democratic progress here.

    ¶8.  (SBU) Ultimately, the Ecuadorian people will determine
    the health and fate of democracy in Ecuador.  We share with
    them an interest in democratic strengthening, and seek to use
    our limited resources to maximum effect.

    Chacon

`