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### Viewing cable 03OTTAWA714, SNAPSHOT OF CANADIAN POLITICS: THE RULING LIBERAL

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
03OTTAWA714 | 2003-03-14 20:08 | 2011-04-28 00:12 | UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY | Embassy Ottawa

`

    This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

` `

    UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 OTTAWA 000714

    SIPDIS

    SENSITIVE

    E.O. 12958: N/A
    TAGS: PGOV CA
    SUBJECT: SNAPSHOT OF CANADIAN POLITICS: THE RULING LIBERAL
    PARTY LEADERSHIP CONTEST IS ON

    This message is sensitive, but unclassified.  Handle
    accordingly.

    1.(U) SUMMARY. Former Finance Minister Paul Martin Jr. filed
    nomination papers for the leadership contest of the governing
    Liberal Party on March 6. At this juncture, Heritage Minister
    Sheila Copps, whose candidacy was declared on the first day
    of the official campaign period, is the only other MP openly
    running for the leadership. Deputy PM and current Finance
    Minister John Manley is expected to toss his hat into the
    ring in the near future.  END SUMMARY.

    ¶2. (U) The Liberals have held power consecutively for a
    decade under the leadership of Jean Chretien, who won three
    successive Parliamentary majorities at general elections in
    1993, 1997 and 2000 ) a rare feat in Canadian politics.
    Nevertheless, the party owes a significant measure of its
    success to Paul Martin Jr. for his strong performance as
    Finance Minister during 1993-2002.

    ¶3. (U) The son of a prominent Liberal minister whose own
    prime ministerial ambitions were never realized, Paul Martin
    has been a Member of Parliament for some 15 years.  In
    addition to his natural appeal to the business community (he
    is a successful financier and industrialist in his own right)
    Martin has cultivated important social and environmental
    policymaking credentials.  Moreover, as Finance Minister
    under Chretien, he turned around the nation,s serious budget
    deficit into a surplus within a few years, while
    simultaneously reducing unemployment and inflation )- a feat
    that few &ex ante8 observers thought possible.

    ¶4. (SBU) Despite his clear advantage early in the contest,
    Paul Martin seems to be leaving nothing to chance, including
    the timing of the official launch of his campaign in April,
    from his home riding of LaSalle-Emard, Montreal, to
    &maximize the impact8 on vote-getting.  In filing for
    nomination-*which requires paying a deposit of half the
    $75,000 candidacy fee by June 10--candidates get access to
    bulk membership forms (allowing them to enlist new members in
    groups of 100) and Liberal party membership lists that are
    vital to any campaign.  Moreover, in light of the CAD 4
    million ceiling on official campaign expenditures, it is in
    Martin,s interest to delay imposing such a constraint on his
    war chest (he has been touring the country in unofficial
    appearances since his resignation from Cabinet).

    THE MARTIN-CHRETIEN DYNAMIC
    ---------------------------
    ¶5. (SBU) A long time political rival of Chretien, Martin,s
    relationship with the Prime Minister has been especially
    tense following their 1990 competition for the Liberal
    leadership.  Martin,s adept handling of the finance
    portfolio -- until that time considered a dead end for
    leadership aspirants -- and his unceasing ambition for the
    party leadership only aggravated the rivalry and culminated
    in Martin,s resignation from Cabinet last summer.

    ¶6. (SBU) By that time, the former Finance Minister already
    had developed a seemingly unassailable advantage in political
    reputation and riding-by-riding organization, and an enviable
    campaign war chest.  Although he placed second in the 1990
    leadership contest with only 25 percent of the vote, in the
    intervening years Martin,s supporters diligently gained
    control of key elements of the party machinery, enabling
    their candidate to position well ahead of the pack in the
    current contest.  His personal wealth and an apparent knack
    for fundraising have given Martin the wherewithal to gain
    name recognition and to publicize his credentials well ahead
    of the official campaign season launched February 24.

    THE OTHER CONTESTANTS
    ---------------------
    ¶7. (SBU) Although the names of other senior Ministers have
    continued to surface as potential leadership contestants, few
    have taken up the gauntlet seriously. Industry Minister Allan
    Rock dropped out of possible contention in January 2003 and
    Natural Resources Minister Herb Dhaliwal recently indicated
    that he would not run for personal reasons. While Canadian
    Heritage Minister Sheila Copps formalized her intentions in
    February, she is said to have done so primarily at the urging
    of PM Chretien, ostensibly to avoid the appearance of an
    uncontested race for Paul Martin. It is expected that Copps
    will receive a "golden parachute" from Chrtien in the form
    of a coveted "permanent" patronage appointment before he
    steps down.

    ¶8. (SBU) Deputy Prime Minister John Manley, who also
    succeeded Martin in the Finance portfolio, is expected to
    announce his candidacy at some point. Observers speculate
    that he will need to be assured of a strong second place
    finish, in order to position himself for a good job in a
    Martin Cabinet (Finance, Foreign Affairs) and a run at the
    leadership post-Martin (Manley is 53 compared to Martin's
    64).  As one Embassy contact commented, a weak finish for
    Manley in a leadership race would not help his political
    prospects, and he likely will want to avoid incurring heavy
    campaign debt.

    ¶9. (SBU) COMMENT:  At this time, some 8 months before the
    November convention, Paul Martin is widely deemed the
    probable successor to Chretien, certainly as leader of the
    Liberals and likely as PM following a general election.  His
    organizational lead, combined with personal wealth unmatched
    by other candidates, continue to give him vast advantages in
    the leadership race.  Although his ownership of the
    multi-million dollar Canadian Steamship Lines has been under
    attack as an ethics issue, Martin recently announced his
    intent to cede ownership of the company and implement
    additional transparency measures, in close consultation with
    the current government Ethics Commissioner, to preclude any
    question about his ties to/influence on the company "should"
    he become Prime Minister.  END COMMENT.
    CELLUCCI

`