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### Viewing cable 08TORONTO88, Ontario Budget Focuses on Economic Stabilization

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
08TORONTO88 | 2008-03-27 18:06 | 2011-04-28 00:12 | UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY | Consulate Toronto

`

    VZCZCXRO6564
    RR RUEHGA RUEHHA RUEHQU RUEHVC
    DE RUEHON #0088/01 0871821
    ZNR UUUUU ZZH
    R 271821Z MAR 08
    FM AMCONSUL TORONTO
    TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 2412
    INFO RUCNCAN/ALCAN COLLECTIVE

` `

    UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 TORONTO 000088

    SIPDIS

    SIPDIS
    SENSITIVE

    E.O. 12958: N/A
    TAGS: PGOV ETRD ELAB CA
    SUBJECT: Ontario Budget Focuses on Economic Stabilization

    Sensitive But Unclassified - Please Protect Accordingly.

    ¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY:  Ontario's 2008 budget, unveiled on March 25,
    represents a concerted attempt by Premier Dalton McGuinty to take an
    active role in stabilizing and growing the Ontario economy.  Against
    the wishes of the federal government, which has waged an on and off
    war of words with Ontario provincial officials over taxation
    policies, the budget contains only modest tax relief for Ontario
    businesses.  McGuinty has proposed a wide range of spending measures
    in line with his election promises to "modernize" Ontario's
    workforce and aid ailing industries.  Conservative leader John Tory
    criticized the budget for its "last-minute" spending spree on
    infrastructure that will "be here today and gone tomorrow" and the
    absence of corporate tax cuts to attract manufacturers to the
    province.  END SUMMARY.

    ----------------------------------------
    Ontario Government Focuses on Employment
    ----------------------------------------

    ¶2. (U) A C$1.5 billion "Skills to Jobs Action Plan" is the
    centerpiece of Ontario's 2008 budget.  Combined with other
    investment proposals, the government plans to invest nearly C$2
    billion in workforce training measures.  The plan complements
    earlier initiatives such as the Next Generation Job Fund, the
    Ontario Automotive Investment Strategy (OAIS), and the Advanced
    Manufacturing Investment Strategy (AMIS).  Ontario estimates that
    the initiatives will assist up to 20,000 unemployed workers who
    commit to a long-term training plan for a second career.

    ---------------------------------
    Investment and Business Promotion
    ---------------------------------

    ¶3. (U) The budget proposes C$750 million in tax cuts over four
    years.  This is in addition to the C$1.1 billion of corporate tax
    relief from FY2008 to FY2010 announced in Ontario's mid-year budget
    update in December 2007.  Together, the mid-year 2007 budget update
    and this budget offer business tax relief of almost C$600 million in
    FY08 and a further C$500 million in FY09.  Most prominent among tax
    relief measures is the elimination of the business capital tax
    retroactive to January 1, 2007, for businesses primarily engaged in
    manufacturing and resource activities.  The government intends to
    eliminate the capital tax on all businesses by July 2010.

    ¶4. (U) The budget also proposes tax incentives for start-ups and
    "innovative firms."  A 10-year Ontario income tax exemption is
    included for new corporations that commercialize intellectual
    property developed by Canadian universities, colleges or research
    institutes.  The budget includes C$300 million for new investments
    by the Ministry of Research and Innovation and tax credits to small
    companies conducting scientific research and development in Ontario.
      Provincial Finance Minister Dwight Duncan also announced a C$4
    million plan to collaborate with Ontario universities over the next
    three years to develop the financial services workforce.  Toronto is
    the third largest financial center in North America after New York
    and Chicago, and the 15th biggest in the world.  .

    --------------
    Infrastructure
    --------------

    ¶5. (U) The budget includes a one-time C$1 billion expenditure for
    infrastructure improvement, to be paid for out of the C$5 billion
    FY2007 surplus.  In FY2008, which begins on April 1, the province
    intends to spend C$7.5 billion on transportation infrastructure
    including rail, road, and transit projects throughout the province
    with sizable amounts dedicated to supporting projects outside the
    Greater Toronto Area.  The budget fully funds the province's half of
    the cost of the new Windsor access road that will link the end of
    highway 401 with the new Detroit River International Crossing (DRIC)
    bridge linking Windsor and Detroit.  Access road construction is
    scheduled to begin in 2009.

    --------------------------
    Energy and the Environment
    --------------------------

    ¶6. (U) The budget includes funds for the implementation of the
    Liberals' election promise to reduce electricity demand by 6,300
    megawatts (MW), phase out the use of coal-fired electricity plants
    by 2014, and double the use of renewable energy.  The replacement of
    coal-fired plants could mean a reduction of up to 30 megatons of
    greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, the single-largest emissions
    reduction in Canada.  The government also committed to consult with
    municipalities and the energy generation sector to structure
    property tax treatment of renewable energy facilities to promote the
    development of green energy.  Ontario's nuclear industry will also
    benefit from increased funding for apprenticeship programs to
    develop skilled workers.

    -------------------------

    TORONTO 00000088  002 OF 002

    Budget Deficit Eliminated
    -------------------------

    ¶7. (U) The McGuinty government has eliminated the C$5.5 billion
    deficit it inherited from its Progressive Conservative predecessors
    and is on track to achieve its third consecutive budget surplus.  A
    C$600 million surplus is forecast for 2007-2008.  The province's
    accumulated debt-to-GDP ratio should improve from 25.2% in 2003-2004
    to 16.2% by 2010-2011.

    ---------------------------------
    Opposition:  Too Little, Too Late
    ---------------------------------

    ¶8. (U) Conservative opposition leader John Tory, who currently does
    not hold a seat in the Ontario legislature, condemned the McGuinty
    budget as excessively interventionist and insufficient to stimulate
    economic growth in Ontario.  He noted that Ontario was moving
    perilously close to becoming a "have-not" province under Canada's
    scheme of equalization payments among the provinces.

    ¶9. (U) Tory described the budget as "Dalton and Dwight's Deeper
    Downturn."  Ontario, Tory asserted, is insufficiently prepared to
    deal with a prolonged downturn in either the Canadian or U.S.
    economy.  Instead of industry-specific spending programs scattered
    across the province, Tory suggested that the Ontario government (and
    any Tory-led government) would focus on reducing the taxation and
    regulation burden on all residents.  Only a thorough paring-back of
    government activity in Ontario would allow the province to improve
    its last-place rankings in economic growth, according to the PC
    leader.

    ¶10. (SBU) COMMENT:  The general contours of McGuinty's budget bear
    no surprises and largely align with his activist governing
    philosophy and expansive campaign promises.  Ontario's
    export-dependent economy continues to evolve, due in no small part,
    to the strong Canadian dollar, slowing U.S. economy, and higher oil
    prices.  The budget is a reflection of his efforts to minimize pain
    resulting from the ongoing restructuring of the Ontario economy.
    END COMMENT.

    NAY

`