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Viewing cable 09BOGOTA4088, FOUR CONSECUTIVE QUARTERS OF NEGATIVE GROWTH; WILL THERE BE

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
09BOGOTA4088 2009-12-23 17:50 2011-08-25 00:00 UNCLASSIFIED Embassy Bogota
VZCZCXYZ0000
RR RUEHWEB

DE RUEHBO #4088/01 3571751
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 231750Z DEC 09
FM AMEMBASSY BOGOTA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 1791
INFO RUCPDOC/DEPT OF COMMERCE WASHINGTON DC
RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHINGTON DC
RUEHBO/AMEMBASSY BOGOTA
RUEHCV/AMEMBASSY CARACAS
RUEHPE/AMEMBASSY LIMA
RUEHQT/AMEMBASSY QUITO
RUEHSG/AMEMBASSY SANTIAGO
RUEHZP/AMEMBASSY PANAMA
UNCLAS BOGOTA 004088 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: ECON EINT PREL PGOV CO
SUBJECT: FOUR CONSECUTIVE QUARTERS OF NEGATIVE GROWTH; WILL THERE BE 
A FIFTH? 
 
REF: BOGOTA 3313; BOGOTA 3878; BOGOTA 3359 
 
1.  Summary.  Colombia's economic growth for the third quarter 
remained negative, at -0.2 percent.  This is the fourth straight 
quarter of negative growth, but it reveals a northward trend that 
is expected to yield positive growth for the fourth quarter as well 
as for 2010.  The GOC admits that third quarter results are below 
what was previously estimated and attributes this lackluster 
performance to a poor coffee harvest, the slow pace of the global 
recovery, and Venezuela's actions to block imports from Colombia. 
Overall, Colombia's recession has been mild in comparison to others 
in the region, but its recovery will not be as quick as others 
either.  End Summary. 
 
 
 
GDP Trending Upward, But No Thanks to Venezuela 
 
--------------------------------------------- -- 
 
 
 
2.  Colombia reported negative 0.2 percent growth for the third 
quarter, extending Colombia's negative streak to four consecutive 
quarters.  It began in the fourth quarter of 2008, for which the 
GOC reported negative 1.0 percent growth, which was followed by 
negative 0.5 and 0.3 percent growth, respectively.  However, the 
trend is clear, and both GOC officials and economic analysts 
predict positive growth for the fourth quarter and a positive 2.5 
percent growth for 2010. 
 
 
 
3.  Mauricio Reina, analyst at Fedesarollo (a local economic 
think-tank), highlighted that "third quarter numbers show that the 
GDP is worse than what we had hoped for, and that the recovery has 
been slow."  Esteban Piedrahita, Director of GOC's National 
Planning office, said that the recovery has been less robust than 
projected due to factors such as Venezuela and a poor coffee 
harvest. 
 
 
 
4.  Chavez' actions toward Colombia have had dramatic consequences 
on Colombia's exports (reftel A).  His orders to block or 
substitute Colombian imports have decreased Colombian exports to 
Venezuela by 48 percent in August, 50 percent in September, 70 
percent in October, and 75 percent in November (compared to 2008 
figures for those months).  Minister of Finance Ivan Zuluaga notes 
that, in 2010, Colombia's economic growth will be inferior to that 
of Brazil, Chile, and Peru, due to Colombia's heavy economic 
dependency on the U.S. and Venezuela. 
 
 
 
Four Industries Prevent a Larger Drop in GDP 
 
-------------------------------------------- 
 
 
 
5.  The four main industries that have helped Colombia avoid a more 
serious fall in GDP are construction, mining, finance, and oil and 
gas.  Mass amounts of countercyclical spending in the form of 
public works have helped boost Colombia's economy and just 
recently, Colombia awarded its largest transportation 
infrastructure project in its history (septel).  The mining sector 
continues to post gains and is led by the coal industry, which is 
posting record exports for 2009.  The financial sector also is 
doing well as it finances many of the construction projects and 
maintains its conservative lending practices, which had buffered 
the banking sector from the financial meltdown of 2008.  Colombia's 
oil and gas industry continues to increase production and achieved 
700,000 barrels per day in early October -- the highest in over a 
decade (reftel B). 
 
 
 
Comment: Diversify 
 
------------------ 
 
 
6.  In response to changing markets, Colombia has made inroads to 
diversify its export market, to Asia in particular (reftel C).  But 
it has been slow to do so, primarily because of the long-standing 
economic relationship Colombia has had with Venezuela, the 
perceived difficulties of entering a new market, and because past 
rows between the two countries have ended without severe economic 
consequences.  Although Venezuela's actions will continue into the 
following year, Colombia's GDP looks to recover in 2010 with an 
expected 2.5 percent growth rate due to low central bank rates, 
increased foreign direct investment, and an improvement in the 
global and regional economic environment. 
BROWNFIELD