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Viewing cable 09BOGOTA3485, URIBE SILENT AS "DEADLINE" TO DECLARE CANDIDACY FOR

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
09BOGOTA3485 2009-12-01 21:48 2011-08-25 00:00 UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Embassy Bogota
VZCZCXYZ0000
RR RUEHWEB

DE RUEHBO #3485 3352148
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 012148Z DEC 09
FM AMEMBASSY BOGOTA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 1294
INFO RHEHAAA/NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL WASHINGTON DC
RHMFIUU/CDR USSOUTHCOM MIAMI FL
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC
RUEHBO/AMEMBASSY BOGOTA
RUEHBR/AMEMBASSY BRASILIA 0274
RUEHCV/AMEMBASSY CARACAS
RUEHPE/AMEMBASSY LIMA
RUEHQT/AMEMBASSY QUITO
RUEHZP/AMEMBASSY PANAMA
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC
UNCLAS BOGOTA 003485 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PHUM KJUS CO
SUBJECT: URIBE SILENT AS "DEADLINE" TO DECLARE CANDIDACY FOR 
REELECTION LAPSES 
 
REF: BOGOTA 3373 AND PREVIOUS 
 
1. (U) With less than six months until the May 30 presidential 
election, the political panorama is as murky as ever (reftels). 
There is still no answer to the million dollar question:  "will 
President Uribe run for a second reelection?"  Observers and the 
entire spectrum of presidential candidates had hoped Uribe would 
make his intentions known on November 30, as the Law of Guarantees 
enacted before Uribe's first reelection in 2006 requires a sitting 
president to declare his candidacy for reelection six months before 
the election date.  The Law of Guarantees comes with restrictions 
on the activities of a sitting president seeking reelection, in 
order to level the playing field somewhat for candidates that do 
not control the state apparatus.  However, the initiative calling 
for a referendum to modify the constitution to allow a third 
presidential term is still under review by the Constitutional 
Court.  Since the referendum has not been held, Uribe can not 
legally declare himself a candidate.  Uribe, who was at the 
Ibero-American Summit in Portugal on November 30, made no comment 
on his reelection plans or the Law of Guarantees. 
 
 
 
2. (U) Whether or not the failure to comply with the Law of 
Guarantees inhibits Uribe's potential candidacy remains an open 
question.  Some Uribe opponents were quick to point out that the 
Law is still in force, opining that by not declaring his candidacy 
by November 30, Uribe can not run in the May 30 elections. 
Supporters stressed that Uribe could not legally declare his 
candidacy before the referendum, and opined that if the 
Constitutional Court sanctions the referendum, Uribe will be 
allowed to be a candidate despite the Law of Guarantees since the 
referendum is a "higher law."  Another possible loophole is that 
the Law of Guarantees deals with "reelection" and not 
"re-reelection," so does not apply to a subsequent constitutional 
reform allowing a third term. 
 
 
 
3. (SBU) It seems clear that this latest obstacle will be overcome 
or ignored just as previous, more onerous impediments were 
surpassed.  It is equally evident that, as Alternative Democratic 
Pole (PDA) presidential candidate Gustavo Petro said, "President 
Uribe's interest in reelection is leading the country to a rupture 
of institutions that deepens with every passing moment."  Liberal 
Party presidential candidate Rafael Pardo urged President Uribe to 
voluntarily comply with the Law of Guarantees' restrictions on 
ethical grounds.  This is a real possibility, described to us weeks 
ago by "U" Party Secretary General Mario Solano, but Uribe should 
announce his voluntary compliance in order to give other candidates 
and Colombia's citizenry increased peace of mind.  The relatively 
sparse media coverage of the passing "deadline" is a further 
indication of the pervasive feeling in Colombia that President 
Uribe is happy to let this state of limbo endure for the months 
remaining until the Constitutional Court issues its decision. 
 
 
 
COMMENT 
 
------- 
 
 
 
4. (SBU) Uribe's potential candidacy allows him to avoid lame duck 
status and to keep the political machinery in his pocket.  His low 
profile on the reelection question allows the initiative to 
continue to be portrayed as of the people, by the people and for 
the people, rather than as an executive's refusal to relinquish the 
reins of power.  We will likely have to wait until February or 
March for the presidential race to become clearer.  End Comment. 
BROWNFIELD