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Viewing cable 09BUENOSAIRES1011, ARGENTINA ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL REVIEW, AUGUST

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
09BUENOSAIRES1011 2009-09-08 20:17 2011-08-25 00:00 UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Embassy Buenos Aires
VZCZCXRO0779
PP RUEHAO RUEHCD RUEHGA RUEHGD RUEHGR RUEHHA RUEHHO RUEHMC RUEHMT
RUEHNG RUEHNL RUEHQU RUEHRD RUEHRG RUEHRS RUEHTM RUEHVC
DE RUEHBU #1011/01 2512017
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 082017Z SEP 09
FM AMEMBASSY BUENOS AIRES
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 4318
INFO RUEHWH/WESTERN HEMISPHERIC AFFAIRS DIPL POSTS PRIORITY
RUEHSO/AMCONSUL SAO PAULO PRIORITY 3956
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RHEHAAA/NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RUCPDOC/USDOC WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BUENOS AIRES 001011 
 
SIPDIS 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: EFIN ECON EINV ETRD ELAB EAIR AR
SUBJECT:  ARGENTINA ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL REVIEW, AUGUST 
27-SEPTEMBER 3, 2009 
 
1. (U) Provided below is Embassy Buenos Aires' Economic and 
Financial Review covering the period August 27-September 3, 2009. 
The unclassified email version of this report includes tables and 
charts tracking Argentine economic developments.  Contact Econ OMS 
Megan Walton at WaltonM@state.gov to be included on the email 
distribution list.  This document is sensitive but unclassified.  It 
should not be disseminated outside of USG channels or in any public 
forum without the written concurrence of the originator.  It should 
not be posted on the internet. 
 
----------------------------------- 
GOA EXCHANGES INFLATION-LINKED DEBT 
----------------------------------- 
 
2. (SBU) The Ministry of Economy announced September 1 that it will 
broaden the ongoing swap of inflation-linked debt for a new floating 
rate bond (the Bonar 2015) by adding as eligible securities the 
Boden 2014 and certain series of Guaranteed Loans that were not 
previously included, all of which total ARP 14 billion ($3.6 
billion).  The GoA had previously launched on August 27 an offer to 
exchange up to ARP 8.3 billion ($2.1 billion) of inflation linked 
debt for a Bonar 2014.  In both offers, the GoA exchanges 
CER-adjusted bonds for a floating debt instrument that pays Badlar 
(the time deposit interest rate for deposits of ARP 1 million ) plus 
a spread of 2.75 and 3.00 percentage points for the Bonar 2014 and 
the Bonar 2015, respectively.  Both offers close September 7.  With 
these exchanges, the GoA seeks to improve its maturity profile for 
the next two years, with GoA debt obligations of $13 and $12 billion 
due in 2010 and 2011, respectively. 
 
--------------------------------------------- ------- 
RESULTS OF TAX AMNESTY AND CAPITAL REPATRIATION PLAN 
--------------------------------------------- ------- 
3. (SBU) On September 1, President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner 
announced that the GoA achieved better-than-expected results in the 
tax amnesty and undeclared-capital repatriation incentive plan that 
closed on August 31.  The capital repatriation section of the plan 
had spawned a major debate over whether it facilitated money 
laundering.  In an August 31 press interview, the former FATF 
President Antonio Gustavo Rodrigues indicated that Argentina's 
compliance with money laundering regulations will be assessed in 
November. 
4. (SBU) According to AFIP (the tax authority equivalent to the 
IRS), the main results include: 
-- About 35,789 individuals took advantage of the plan to legalize 
ARP 18.1 billion in undeclared funds, of which only 4% (ARP 725 
million) came from abroad; [Note: The capital repatriation plan 
allowed undeclared capital held abroad by residents to be brought 
onshore after paying an 8% tax, which would be reduced to just 1% if 
the capital was invested in real estate or goods producing 
industries.] 
-- Just under 170,000 companies and individuals took advantage of 
the tax amnesty plan, paying about ARP 14.7 billion in back taxes 
and social security debt owed to AFIP; 
-- The status of 330,547 previously informal workers was legalized. 
5. (SBU) Some analysts criticized the results of the plan, saying 
that the repatriation of ARP 18 billion (USD 4.7 billion) paled in 
comparison to capital outflows of USD 23 billion in 2008 and USD 
11.2 billion in the first two quarters of 2009.  They note that this 
figure represent only 3% of the estimated USD 150 billion held 
abroad by Argentines.  Also, the 330,000 workers whose status was 
normalized represent only about 8% of the informal labor market, 
according to private sources. 
 
------------------------------------------- 
NOMINAL AUGUST TAX COLLECTION UP 4.2% Y-O-Y 
------------------------------------------- 
 
6. (SBU) The GoA announced September 2 that August tax collection 
increased 4.2% y-o-y to ARP 25.3 billion (approx. USD 6.6 billion), 
below market expectations of ARP 26 billion and showing the lowest 
annual y-o-y increase since May 2005 (when it grew 2.6% y-o-y).  The 
general economic downturn and the impact of the A/H1N1 flu virus 
outbreak in Argentina were the main factors behind the disappointing 
tax haul.  The weak performance of tax collection raises questions 
about the GoA's ability to maintain a primary fiscal surplus in 
2009. 
 
--------------------------------------------- ------ 
PRIVATE THINK TANK: INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION DOWN 2.5% 
--------------------------------------------- ------ 
 
7. (SBU) The private think tank FIEL reported on August 26 that its 
industrial production index was down 2.5% month-on-month, seasonally 
adjusted in July.  On a year-on-year basis, FIEL's industrial 
 
BUENOS AIR 00001011  002 OF 002 
 
 
production index was down 9%, in clear contrast with the recent GoA 
statistical agency (INDEC) report that industrial production was 
down 1.5% y-o-y in July.  Industrial activity fell 10.2% y-o-y, and 
all industrial sectors, except food production which grew 2.2%, also 
fell on a y-o-y basis.  The sectors that contracted the most were 
automobile production (down 35.5% y-o-y) and base metals production 
(down 31.8% y-o-y).  Despite last month's contraction, FIEL's data 
suggests that activity in the industrial sector has stabilized and 
that it might have started to rebound. 
 
KELLY