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Viewing cable 09BAGHDAD2106, IRAQ'S PROGRESS ON MCC INDICATORS: OUR ASSESSMENT
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| Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09BAGHDAD2106 | 2009-08-05 08:49 | 2011-08-24 16:30 | UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY | Embassy Baghdad |
VZCZCXYZ0008
RR RUEHWEB
DE RUEHGB #2106/01 2170849
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 050849Z AUG 09
FM AMEMBASSY BAGHDAD
TO SECSTATE WASHDC 4209
UNCLAS BAGHDAD 002106
SENSITIVE
SIPDIS
STATE PASS TO MILLENNIUM CHALLENGE CORPORATION SARAH ROSE
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: EAID ECON IZ KMCA PGOV PHUM PREL
SUBJECT: IRAQ'S PROGRESS ON MCC INDICATORS: OUR ASSESSMENT
REF: A. BAGHDAD 1085
¶B. BAGHDAD 1838
¶C. BAGHDAD 959
¶D. BAGHDAD 1802
¶1. (SBU) Summary: Iraq's post-conflict economy continues to
improve but it remains challenged by deep-rooted problems of
corruption, red tape, an ill-equipped workforce, and land
disputes. Although the GOI still focuses a lot of energy on
the development of its oil sector, future foreign investment
and diversified economic growth will only take place when
these deep underlying issues are addressed. Hard data are
extremely difficult for any organization to collect in Iraq,
but there is some anecdotal evidence that tangible progress
is being made on some the USG Millennium Challenge
Corporation (MCC) Scorecard Indicators. To complement the
few reliable statistics available, we offer the following
narrative summaries of our assessment of Iraq's progress
under the MCC's three pillars: Ruling Justly, Investing in
People, and Economic Freedom. End summary.
Reliable Data are Difficult to Get
----------------------------------
¶2. (SBU) Although Iraq's security situation has improved
considerably over the past few years, it is still challenging
to collect standard development data. The United Nations and
its family agencies have a relatively small presence in
country and have published very few figures on Iraq since
2006 on their UN Stats site for the Millennium Development
Goals (See: http://mdgs.un.org/unsd/mdg/Data.aspx). The
World Bank has only two full time representatives on the
ground and the IMF office for Iraq is based out of Jordan.
Few international NGOs are capable of operating here because
the prohibitive security costs. Their rankings and indices
can only be considered as reliable as their primary data,
which is difficult to obtain and objectively cross-check.
¶3. (SBU) Given these difficulties, most of the data that are
published in Iraq have been collected and published by GOI
entities. The Central Organization for Statistics and
Information Technology (COSIT) and the Ministry of Planning
are the principal data GOI collection agencies, but their
work has also been limited by the security environment. With
some help and funding from the World Bank, COSIT was able to
conduct the nationwide Iraq Household Socio-Economic Survey
in 2007, which will become a baseline for comparisons with
follow-up surveys starting next year. COSIT intends to
conduct a nationwide census starting this fall that will be
published in 2010. The Ministry of Education and the
Ministry of Health, however, thus far have not been able to
provide us any statistics related to the Millennium
Development Goals. (NOTE: The Ministry of Education official
tasked with filling out the annual UNESCO report that would
feed into the MCC education indicator was killed in a bombing
July 10. The Ministry of Education will be able to finish
the report by July 31. If not, Post will get all possible
information on education expenditures for the MCC from the
2009 budget. END NOTE.) Because of the need for better
economic data, the Embassy has been funding the Iraqi
Institute for Economic Reform in order to get them set up as
an independent economic think tank in country and capable of
cross-checking GOI figures.
Ruling Justly
-------------
Political Rights
¶4. (SBU) Iraq's democracy continues to mature, especially
with successful provincial elections held in January 2009.
The law provides for the free exercise of human rights, but
violence, corruption, and organizational dysfunction
undermined the government's ability to protect them. Over
the past year, however, violence has decreased significantly
Qthe past year, however, violence has decreased significantly
and some reconciliation occurred in several provinces.
Disciplinary action, including prosecutions leading to
convictions, was taken against some government officials
accused of violating human rights (Ref: 2008 Iraq Human
Rights Report).
Control of Corruption
¶5. (SBU) Corruption remains prevalent throughout the GOI and
is one of the most significant obstacles to economic growth,
but there have been some recent positive developments. The
GOI ratified the UN Convention Against Corruption in April
¶2008. There are three GOI anti-corruption entities - the
Board of Supreme Audit (BSA), the Commission on Integrity
(COI), and the Inspectors General Service (IGS). The GOI is
developing a draft GOI Anti-Corruption Strategy to help meet
its Convention obligations and has sent a draft Comprehensive
Anti-Corruption Law to the Council of Representatives for
passage. The COI has run public service announcements
against corruption, set up an anti-corruption hotline (which
has received more than 13,000 calls thus far in 2009), and
held a conference with the Ministry of Education to discuss
an Anti-Corruption curriculum for Iraqi pupils. The
underlying legal framework against corruption as part of the
Iraqi Criminal Code is acceptable. Enforcement or lack
thereof, however, is largely a political question whereas
party, sect, and favoritism still weigh more in the calculus
than ethics. For example, although the Minister of Trade was
forced to resign for his alleged corrupt activities, it is
not clear if he will ever be formally charged.
Rule of Law
¶6. (SBU) Ongoing violence has meant the GOI has generally had
a weak performance upholding the rule of law. Judges
frequently face death threats and attacks. Long delays, low
standards of evidence, political interference, and inadequate
access to representation hamper the judicial process. Yet,
there is anecdotal evidence to suggest that over the past
year judges have been more objective in their decisions. The
success of the Iraqi High Tribunal is particularly
noteworthy. Since the Tribunal became fully independent from
the Regime Crimes Liaison Office in September 2008, it has
grown as a fully-functioning independent court, added three
more trial chambers, and resolved cases more quickly while
safeguarding defendants' rights to due process.
Investing in People
-------------------
Health and Education Expenditures Rise
¶7. (SBU) Health and primary/secondary education remain top
GOI priorities and the GOI is clearly starting to invest more
in its people despite decreased government revenues. Budget
expenditures in 2009 increased relatively and absolutely over
2008 for both health and primary/secondary education. Lower
oil prices meant the final 2009 GOI budget was only 81% of
the 2008 figure. Yet, according to official budget figures,
2009 GOI health expenditures increased by 55% (from $776 to
$1210 per capita) and education (excluding higher education)
increased by 80% (from $784 to $1411 per capita). Health
expenditures went from being a mere 3.1% of the total 2008
budget up to 6% in 2009. Education spending went from 3.1%
in 2008 to almost 7% in 2009.
Natural Resources: Oil, Water, and Marshland
¶8. (SBU) Iraq is one of the lowest cost sources of crude oil
on the globe and the Iraqi Ministry of Oil (MOO) is trying to
attract foreign investment to more efficiently exploit it.
However, because of stringent GOI conditions, the MOO's June
30 bid round resulted in a winner for only one of the eight
fields on offer (Ref. A). Contract negotiations will take
months to complete, meaning significantly increased
production is unlikely before 2011. To the GOI's credit, the
bid round was conducted transparently without any hints of
favoritism. Due to this reputation for transparency, the GOI
will be in a good position to conduct possible future rounds
for the remaining fields.
¶9. (SBU) Water is a vital resource that has been relatively
scarce in Iraq because of a prolonged drought over the past
two years. Outdated irrigation practices have exasperated
the effects of the drought and depleted Iraq's strategic
water reserves. Consequently, according to MCC indicator
data, the percentage of people with access to an improved
water supply decreased from 81% in 2006 and 2007 to only 77%
in 2008. The Iraq Relief and Reconstruction Fund (IRRF)
Qin 2008. The Iraq Relief and Reconstruction Fund (IRRF)
projects completed to date by the USG have restored or added
the capacity to treat 2.25 million cubic meters of potable
water per day, with the potential to serve 8 million Iraqis.
The Ministry of Water Resources is now instigating new
infrastructure projects to improve irrigation facilities.
After diplomatic pressure, Turkey has also increased the
water flows through its dams in response to the drought,
though it is unclear for how long this will continue.
¶10. (SBU) The marshlands near the Persian Gulf are an
important ecological resource and Iraq has recently taken
significant steps to protect them. (Ref. C) Iraq acceded to
the Convention on Wetlands of International Importance
(Ramsar) on February 17, 2008 and designated 1377 square
kilometers of the Hawizeh marshes in the south as its first
Ramsar site.
Economic Freedom
----------------
Investment
¶11. (SBU) Though the Iraqi market offers considerable
opportunities for both domestic and international commerce,
Iraq's investment and trade climate continues to prove
challenging for both Iraqi and international concerns. The
GOI's stated policy is to work towards WTO accession, though
it has demonstrated little progress on key, WTO-compliant
laws and regulations that would form the basis of meaningful
accession negotiations. Significant security concerns,
cumbersome procedures for new business registration, long
regulatory delays, unclear land and property titling,
unreliable mechanisms for dispute resolution, and allegations
of endemic corruption are among the many issues which
continue to deter domestic and international economic
engagement. More broadly, a legacy of central planning and
inefficient state-owned enterprises continue to slow Iraq's
attempts to transition to a more market-based economy.
Land Issues
¶12. (SBU) Land tenure is a key factor in improving Iraq's
business climate. Competing land titles from the Saddam
regime and strict prohibitions on foreign ownership of land
have discouraged investment (Ref. B). Iraq's National
Investment Law (NIL), which was passed in 2006, has a
provision that permits Iraqi and foreign investors to rent
(lease) lands for investment projects. However, neither the
Ministry of Finance (MOF) nor the Ministry of Municipalities
(MOM), which hold 70% and 10-15% of all land respectively,
currently recognize the NIL's land provisions. Prime
Minister Maliki has spoken publically on how clarifying land
titles and allowing foreign ownership are urgent issues with
respect to investment. There is currently a draft amendment
being deliberated in the Council of Representatives that
would clarify foreign land ownership but the issue remains
controversial.
Inflation
¶13. (SBU) Due to the Central Bank of Iraq's managed-float
exchange rate policy, the Iraqi dinar has held steady at
about 1170 to the dollar since the beginning of 2009. Core
inflation (headline inflation minus volatile fuel,
electricity, transport, and communication prices) has
decreased substantially over the past year, from 13.6%
year-on-year in June 2008 down to 8.8% year-on-year in June
¶2009. Inflation has decreased substantially over the past
few years in correlation with improved security. Iraq's
prices are now more vulnerable to global price trends such as
increases in food and fuel prices. A housing shortage of
about three million units nationwide means increasing rents
are contributing to recent inflation.
Fiscal Policy
¶14. (SBU) Eighty-six percent of the GOI's budget comes from
oil revenues. Unfortunately the GOI's revenue projections
based upon an oil price of $50/barrel and production of two
million barrels per day proved too optimistic for at least
the first five months of 2009. (Ref. D) The GOI has enough
reserves to cover the projected $15.9 billion deficit this
year, but a potential positive 2009 supplemental budget could
increase this figure. The GOI has already had difficulty
making payments to GE and Siemens on $5 billion electrical
turbine deals. Iraq may benefit from a new IMF Stand-By
Arrangement to be signed in October, which would provide $5.5
billion in finance to help cover a potential deficit in 2010.
But the government needs to take a serious look at its
available resources in planning its expenditures for 2011.
Iraq received a generous 80% cut in its debts to Paris Club
members but still needs to renegotiate its outstanding debt
Qto other non-Paris Club creditors (particularly Saudi Arabia
and Kuwait) as more of its obligations come due in 2011 and
beyond. Balancing GOI political desires with budget
realities will be difficult until oil production
significantly increases.
Comment
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¶15. (SBU) Because of the extreme difficulty of obtaining
reliable data here, Iraq's progress on the UN Millennium
Development Goals and the MCC indicators is hard to quantify.
But, it appears to be moving forward in some areas. As the
security situation improves, UN agencies, the IMF, World
Bank, and other international NGOs should be able to better
assess developments using their normal models. This kind of
data would allow one to analytically compare Iraq to its
neighbors in the Middle East and other post-conflict emerging
economies. The GOI Census planned for October 2009, assuming
it goes forward as planned, should also provide valuable
insight. Until then, the Embassy will continue to encourage
the GOI to pursue the ideals of the MCC indicators for the
benefit of the Iraqi people.
HILL