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Viewing cable 09BUENOSAIRES805, Argentine Economy Minister Shuffle Augurs No Economic

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
09BUENOSAIRES805 2009-07-08 21:46 2011-08-25 00:00 UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Embassy Buenos Aires
VZCZCXYZ0000
RR RUEHWEB

DE RUEHBU #0805/01 1892146
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 082146Z JUL 09
FM AMEMBASSY BUENOS AIRES
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 4044
RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHINGTON DC
RUCPDOC/DEPT OF COMMERCE WASHINGTON DC
RHEHAAA/NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL WASHINGTON DC
RHMFIUU/HQ USSOUTHCOM MIAMI FL
RUCNMER/MERCOSUR COLLECTIVE
UNCLAS BUENOS AIRES 000805 
 
SIPDIS 
SENSITIVE 
 
TREASURY FOR LUYEN TRAN, WILLIAM LINDQUIST 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV ECON PREL PINR AR
SUBJECT: Argentine Economy Minister Shuffle Augurs No Economic 
Changes 
 
REF: (A) BUENOS AIRES 742 
     (B) BUENOS AIRES 627 
     (C) 2008 BUENOS AIRES 1680 
 
------- 
Summary 
------- 
 
1. (SBU) As predicted in Ref A (para 14), the GoA appointed Amado 
Boudou, previously the head of the GoA's social security 
administration, as the new Minister of Economy on July 7.  Boudou, 
with a classical background in economics and a reputation as a 
mercenary, is seen as someone who will not interfere with the 
actions of interventionist Domestic Commerce Secretary Guillermo 
Moreno.  The change is not expected to result in major shifts in the 
direction of the GoA's heterodox economic policy.  End Summary. 
 
---------------------- 
The Names Have Changed 
---------------------- 
 
2. (SBU) The replacement of former Economy Minister Carlos Fernandez 
was one of several rumored Cabinet changes following the ruling 
Victory Front's (FpV) defeat in congressional mid-term elections. 
Fernandez maintained a very low profile during his just over 
one-year tenure.  He was never seen as a significant economic 
policymaker, even before his portfolio was significantly reduced 
following the creation of the Ministry of Production in December 
2008, taking Economy Ministry functions such as agriculture, 
industry and foreign trade along.  Secretary of Domestic Commerce 
Guillermo Moreno, who ostensibly answered to Fernandez, has long 
been seen as more influential in economic policy matters by carrying 
out orders directly from First Gentleman and former President Nestor 
Kirchner.  Boudou will be the fifth GoA Economic Minister since 
Moreno assumed his current position in April 2006. 
 
3. (SBU) Boudou had previously been in charge of the GoA's Social 
Security agency (ANSES), a portfolio which grew considerably in 
importance since the GoA nationalized private pension funds in 
November 2008 (ref C).  Boudou reportedly wrote the law which 
enacted that change.  ANSES took over the administration of the 
pensions, and has been charged by President Cristina Fernandez de 
Kirchner with trying to stimulate the economy by using the acquired 
pension funds for home and car loans, as well as providing a loan to 
the local General Motors (GM) subsidiary to produce a new local car 
model (ref B).  The loan programs have reportedly had little effect 
on home and car purchases, though this has not reflected poorly on 
Boudou's golden-boy reputation. 
 
4. (SBU) Press reports note Boudou's market-oriented economic 
education at the Argentine Center of Macroeconomic Studies (CEMA, 
where Boudou received a doctorate in economics), but his tenure at 
ANSES indicates that he adheres to the Kirchner line on economic 
issues - at the time of the renationalization of the pension funds, 
he called the privatization of the same a "failed experiment." 
Indeed, in a recent interview, CEMA's dean said that Boudou 
"apparently didn't pay attention" during his time at the school. 
Sergio Vargas, a local private attorney who has known Boudou for 
years, in a July 8 conversation with Acting EconCouns called Boudou 
a "mercenary" rather than an ideologue, and said that his assumption 
of Economy Minister duties means "more of the same" as before with 
respect to economic policy. 
 
5. (SBU) Many local observers are interpreting Moreno's continuation 
as Secretary of Domestic Commerce as a sign that the Kirchners will 
eschew a course correction in economic policy.  The highly 
controversial Moreno has long been seen as the driver and enforcer 
of GOA efforts to control prices and limit capital outflows, both 
through direct pressure on companies and by manipulation of official 
statistics.  Several press accounts claim that Boudou got the 
Economy Ministry portfolio because he was the only candidate who did 
not insist on Moreno's departure as a condition for taking the job. 
Press reports state that when Moreno heard of the ministerial 
change, he replied, "I have my orders to keep working as I always 
have." 
 
------- 
Comment 
------- 
 
6. (SBU) While Economy Ministers come and go, Moreno's continual 
presence - and intervention in the economy - have more influence on 
the local economy than do decisions by the Economy Minister du jour. 
 At the same time, Boudou's loyal service to President Fernandez de 
Kirchner certainly suggests that he will continue to follow her (and 
 
Nestor Kirchner's) lead.  End Comment. 
 
KELLY