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Viewing cable 09BOGOTA1780, CENTRAL BANK SLASHES RATES FURTHER, HINTS AT

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
09BOGOTA1780 2009-06-03 15:54 2011-08-25 00:00 UNCLASSIFIED Embassy Bogota
VZCZCXYZ0023
RR RUEHWEB

DE RUEHBO #1780 1541554
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 031554Z JUN 09 ZDK
FM AMEMBASSY BOGOTA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 9015
INFO RUEHBR/AMEMBASSY BRASILIA 8938
RUEHCV/AMEMBASSY CARACAS 2302
RUEHLP/AMEMBASSY LA PAZ JUN LIMA 7607
RUEHZP/AMEMBASSY PANAMA 3699
RUEHQT/AMEMBASSY QUITO 8306
RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHDC
RUCPDOC/DEPT OF COMMERCE WASHDC
UNCLAS BOGOTA 001780 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: ECON EFIN CO
SUBJECT: CENTRAL BANK SLASHES RATES FURTHER, HINTS AT 
WANING EXPANSIONARY POLICIES 
 
1. (U) On May 29th the board of Colombia's central bank 
announced it would cut key interest rates 100 basis points to 
5 percent in the wake of reports of falling consumer demand 
and industrial production. The drop is the sixth cut in rates 
since December of last year (500 basis points total) and 
leaves the key rate at its lowest since 1998.  The board also 
announced that this change would be the final 100 basis point 
cut, with any future cuts being between 25 and 75 basis 
points, thus marking a slowing of its expansionary policies 
as the Colombian and U.S. economies cautiously recover. 
 
 
Less concern about inflation, more about demand and production 
--------------------------------------------- ----------------- 
2. (U)  While the main concern for the Colombian economy a 
year ago was rising inflation, the bank's focus has shifted 
to a slowing economy.  March's inflation rate of 5.73% (down 
from 7.67% in 2008), coupled with grim macroeconomic data 
from the fourth quarter of 2008 and the first quarter of 2009 
sparked the loosening trend that began in December of 2008. 
Colombia's economy contracted 0.7 percent in the fourth 
quarter of 2009, and in the first quarter of this year, 
industrial production fell by 7.5 percent and retail sales by 
5.2 percent.  After maintaining a tight monetary policy last 
year, the slump in Colombia's economy and the expansion in 
monetary policy over the last sixth months have allowed the 
central bank to both temper inflation and stimulate growth. 
Carlos Rojas of the National Association of Financial 
Institutions (ANIF) told us ANIF believes the rate cut to be 
an appropriate reaction to the current downturn. Highlighting 
ANIF's stance that the central bank must play a key role in 
countering effects of the business cycle, he said the size of 
the cut (slightly larger than what ANIF had anticipated) 
indicated the board was "on top of (its) game". 
 
 
End of slashes, maybe just tweaks 
--------------------------------- 
3. (U) The central bank also announced that this cut would be 
the last such cut, as they anticipate inflation falling to 
the target rate of 5.5 percent over the coming months, and 
Colombia's economy recovering in the second half of 2009. 
The bank noted that future cuts would likely only amount to 
25 to 75 basis points.   Central bank chairman Jose Dario 
Uribe noted in the press that commercial loans had responded 
to the previous 5 cuts totaling 400 basis points.  The 
central bank's read is that this final cut will sufficiently 
reduce the price of corporate lending to jump-start 
production in time for recovery.  While the board is keeping 
its options open to future, smaller rate reductions, it 
appears they believe the need for these 100 basis point cuts 
is coming to an end. 
 
 
Brownfield