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Viewing cable 09COLOMBO531, MALDIVES: FORMER RULING PARTY NARROWLY WINS ELECTIONS

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
09COLOMBO531 2009-05-14 14:32 2011-08-25 00:00 UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Embassy Colombo
VZCZCXRO4483
PP RUEHBI
DE RUEHLM #0531/01 1341432
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 141432Z MAY 09
FM AMEMBASSY COLOMBO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 9981
INFO RUEHKA/AMEMBASSY DHAKA 1670
RUEHIL/AMEMBASSY ISLAMABAD 8672
RUEHKT/AMEMBASSY KATHMANDU 6907
RUEHLO/AMEMBASSY LONDON 4973
RUEHNE/AMEMBASSY NEW DELHI 3038
RUEHCG/AMCONSUL CHENNAI 9296
RUEHBI/AMCONSUL MUMBAI 6602
RHHMUNA/HQ USPACOM HONOLULU HI
RUEHGV/USMISSION GENEVA 3523
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC
RHEHAAA/NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL WASHINGTON DC
RUEHBS/USEU BRUSSELS
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 COLOMBO 000531 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR SCA/INSB 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV KDEM PHUM MV
SUBJECT:  MALDIVES: FORMER RULING PARTY NARROWLY WINS ELECTIONS 
 
1. (SBU) SUMMARY: Maldives held its first multiparty parliamentary 
elections on May 9.  Long delays in counting and announcing results 
led to unruly protests and some violence in the capital, Male'. 
Provisional results announced by the Elections Commission on May 11 
showed that the party of former President Gayoom edged out the 
current ruling party of President Nasheed.  Another party allied to 
the former President came in third.  Independent candidates, who won 
13 seats, may prove to be the deciding factor in which party gains 
effective control of the new Parliament.  A de facto opposition 
majority could prove difficult for the government to manage, 
frustrating many initiatives in its reform agenda.  End summary. 
 
2. (U) The Republic of Maldives held its first multiparty 
parliamentary elections on May 9th.  Several election observation 
groups, such as Transparency Maldives, the British Commonwealth, and 
a group of Colombo-based diplomats organized by the European 
Commission Delegation were present to witness whether the elections 
were conducted in a free and fair manner. 
 
PROVISIONAL RESULTS: NARROW WIN FOR OPPOSITION 
--------------------------------------------- - 
 
3.  (U) Provisional official results show the main opposition party, 
former President Maumoon Abdul Gayoom's Dhivehi Rayyithunge Party 
(DRP), winning 28 seats, edging out the ruling Maldivian National 
Party (MDP) with 26 seats.  The People's Alliance (PA) is winning 7 
seats, giving the opposition DRP-PA alliance a total of 35 seats, 
just four short of a majority in the 77-member Majlis.  The smaller 
members of the coalition government apparently won only three seats. 
 The Dhivehi Qaumee Party (DQP, earlier "New Maldives") of former 
Attorney General Hassan Saeed and current Foreign Minister Ahmed 
Shaheed are leading in just two constituencies, while the Republican 
(Jumhooree) party of former Atolls Minister Gasim Ibrahim is winning 
just one.  It appears the remaining coalition parties - the Adaalath 
Party, the Social Liberal Party, Maldives National Congress and 
National Alliance will not be represented in the new Majlis. 
 
MDP WILL NEED TO ATTRACT INDEPENDENTS 
------------------------------------- 
 
4. (SBU) President Nasheed welcomed the outcome and the election as 
an important step for democracy, adding that the opposition would 
keep the government accountable to the public. However, the results 
can only come as a disappointment to President Nasheed's MDP, which 
was hoping to win 50 seats or more.  The MDP will now have to 
scramble to keep its erstwhile allies - the biggest losers in this 
election - on board, and then attract the support of the lion's 
share of the independents.  This may occur on an ad-hoc basis.  The 
lack of a stable working majority would obviously hinder the MDP in 
pushing forward its proposed legislative agenda comprising 65 bills, 
including legislation on transport, taxation, public utilities, 
housing, health insurance, privatization, and reforming the drug 
laws, penal code and criminal justice system. 
 
A SMOOTH START... 
----------------- 
 
5. (U) The presence of the observer groups appeared to help, as the 
election officers made efforts to ensure that the election process 
was transparent.  Early on, the majority of the complaints involved 
voters turning up at the wrong polling station.  Most of these were 
resolved quickly, without the need to file a formal complaint with 
the National Complaint Bureau. 
 
... A TURN FOR THE WORSE 
------------------------ 
 
6. (SBU) As election day progressed, more serious complaints began 
to emerge.  There were campaign materials posted directly across 
from a polling station and a candidate campaigning in the vicinity 
of a polling station, both violations of election regulations. 
Observers representing an independent candidate filed a complaint, 
which was not effectively handled by the complaints bureau.   There 
were also a number of allegations of bribery, intimidation and 
complaints against elections officials and observers. 
 
7. (SBU) At the end of the day, confusion and frustration arose 
during the scheduled close of polling stations when the Election 
 
COLOMBO 00000531  002 OF 002 
 
 
Commission (EC) notified polling stations that instead of closing 
the polls at 8 p.m., they would extend voting until 1 a.m.  Polling 
stations were also notified that no registration complaints would be 
accepted after 8 p.m., but that other types of complaints could 
still be filed.  Soon after came another announcement that stations 
with unresolved complaints would remain open while stations with no 
outstanding complaints and nobody waiting in the queue could close 
the polls and begin counting ballots. 
 
IMPATIENCE LEADS TO VIOLENCE 
---------------------------- 
 
8. (U) Independent candidate Ibrahim Waheed expressed concern about 
possible ballot stuffing, saying he feared that the situation could 
turn violent.  Waheed's fears of violence were realized when a crowd 
of 300 to 400 protesters, including members of the main opposition 
DRP, gathered at 10:30 p.m. outside the temporary elections 
Commission headquarters for tabulating votes, demanding that the 
results of the elections be announced.  The protest turned violent, 
and a 20-year-old man was stabbed in the chest and stomach and 
remains in critical condition.  Police have taken two men into 
custody in connection with the incident. 
 
9. (SBU) COMMENT: Despite the unfortunate violence, mechanical 
imperfections and the delay in posting results, in our judgment the 
election was relatively free and fair.  The results - a clear, if 
narrow, opposition win - appear to speak for themselves.  If, as 
some analysts expect, most of the independent candidates align 
themselves with one of the two main groupings, then Maldives may be 
headed for a period of consolidation in which two parties 
predominate.  Maldives' "presidential" constitution and its 
first-past-the post electoral system may reinforce this tendency. 
 
 
MOORE