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Viewing cable 09BOGOTA1595, ERADICATION OF COCA -- GOOD NEWS FROM MANY FRONTS
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| Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09BOGOTA1595 | 2009-05-20 20:16 | 2011-08-25 00:00 | UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY | Embassy Bogota |
VZCZCXYZ0002
RR RUEHWEB
DE RUEHBO #1595/01 1402016
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 202016Z MAY 09
FM AMEMBASSY BOGOTA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 8782
INFO RHEHOND/DIRONDCP WASHDC
RHMFISS/CDR USSOUTHCOM MIAMI FL//SCJ2/SCJ3/SCJ5//
RUEABND/DEA HQS WASHDC
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC
RUEAWJC/DEPT OF JUSTICE WASHDC
RHEFHLC/DEPT OF HOMELAND SECURITY WASHDC//ICE/CNO//
RUMIJTF/DIRJIATF SOUTH KEY WEST FL
RHMFIUU/DEPT OF STATE AIR WING PATRICK AFB FL
RUEHPE/AMEMBASSY LIMA 7569
RUEHLP/AMEMBASSY LA PAZ MAY KABUL 0245
UNCLAS BOGOTA 001595
SIPDIS
SENSITIVE
DEPT FOR INL/LP AND INL/RM
DEPT FOR WHA/AND
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: SNAR PGOV KCRM PTER CO
SUBJECT: ERADICATION OF COCA -- GOOD NEWS FROM MANY FRONTS
REFS: A)SEP 2008 ONCDP PRESS RELEASE ON COLOMBIA COKE PRODUCTION
B)NOV 2008 USG PUBLICATION, ILLICIT DRUG PRODUCING NATIONS
C)BOGOTA 673, ERADICATION WRAP UP 2008
D)FEB 2009 DEA LATEST STRIDE DATA ON PRICE AND PURITY
E)APR 2009 DEA PUBLICATION ON DECREASING COCA PRODUCTIVITY
F)08 BOGOTA 1921, ERADICATION HURTS FARC FINANCES
¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: In the last year numerous surveys, studies, and
serious field reports have come out touting the success of
eradication in reducing the amount of cocaine produced, the funding
available to narcoterrorists, the amount of coca leaf available, and
the amount of coca under cultivation. This reporting has been
especially positive in pointing to the major contribution of aerial
eradication. The most recent report from DEA Breakthrough says,
"Sustained eradication is necessary to reduce financial incentives
to grow coca." The information in this cable is from multiple
sources. It is very positive and confirms that aerial eradication
is making a difference, and that it should be considered an
important component of our consolidated counternarcotics policy in
Colombia, along with manual eradication, alternative development,
judicial reform, and police/military assistance. END SUMMARY
--------------------------------------------- ----
ERADICATION WITHERS PRODUCTION OF COCA 24 PERCENT
--------------------------------------------- ----
¶2. (U) In September 2008, the Office of National Drug Control
Policy (ONDCP), using the latest scientific information from DEA and
the Crime and Narcotics Center (CNC), published a press release (REF
A) stating, "...eradication pressure is withering the productivity
of existing coca fields." The press release also stated that,
"Based on our new understanding of the impact of eradication, we can
now calculate that Colombia's maximum potential production of pure
cocaine has fallen fully 24 percent since its high point in 2001."
The study's basic findings are that continued aerial and manual
eradication reduce the productivity of coca fields by reducing the
number of plants in a field and forcing replanting with immature
plants that are less productive than mature plants. Recent data not
included in this analysis suggestS that the cocaine production
potential for Colombia will keep falling as long as the eradication
pressure continues.
¶3. (U) The November 8 USG publication (REF B) entitled, "Illicit
Drug Producing Nations" addressed cultivation of illicit crops
throughout the world. Regarding Colombia, the report said, "New
field studies show that aerial eradication in Colombia has caused a
decline in yield." The study also reported, "The field surveys
indicate that sprayed herbicide can reduce productivity by killing
some plants in the field or causing harvests to be lost even if the
entire field is not destroyed. NOTE: Aerial spray aircraft
typically do not completely spray a field due to security
constraints. They will normally only pass over a field once or
twice, leaving unsprayed coca on the edges, or between spray
swaths.
------------------------------
PRICE IS UP AND PURITY IS DOWN
------------------------------
¶4. (U) Working together, aerial and manual eradication potentially
eliminated hundreds of metric tons of cocaine from the world market
in 2008 (REF E) and arguably contributed to the encouraging trends
in price and purity of cocaine in the U.S. and Britain. In the DEA
STRIDE report (REF C) from February 24, 2009, DEA Washington
reported that the price of cocaine has increased by 105 percent and
purity decreased by 35 percent from January 2007 to December 2008.
Similarly, British authorities reported this month that the
wholesale per kilo price of cocaine in the UK has increased by
nearly 30 percent from 2007 to 2009 and purity is down. Certainly
law enforcement successes in recent years, including record seizures
in Colombia in 2008 and significant seizures in the transit zone,
played a role in producing an increase in the price and a reduction
in purity of cocaine in the U.S. and Britain, but eradication also
played a role in restricting supply.
--------------------------------------------- -----
MAJOR GROWING REGIONS, LESS COCA DUE TO ERADICATION
--------------------------------------------- -----
¶5. (SBU) The April 30, 2009 DEA report "Coca Eradication Proves to
be a Team Marathon, not a Solo Sprint" (REF D) uses new field
studies not available when REF A was published. This report's
latest coca yield studies "have documented that average coca leaf
yields in three major growing regions have dropped by an average of
10 percent per year over the last 2 to 5 years." The report also
states that, "Sustained eradication is necessary to reduce financial
incentives to grow coca, while credible alternative development
options are required to create income for buying necessities that
cannot be produced by the farmer. Without sustained and concurrent
eradication and alternative development, farmers are unlikely to
permanently abandon coca farming." NOTE: The Narcotics Affairs
Section (NAS) in Colombia has long advocated that the Carrot and
Stick approach to eradication is the best strategy to achieve
long-term success. NAS, USAID, and the Embassy Military Group are
all working together on the Colo40nSwith the Embassy that coca
productivity in several major coca growing regions is down sharply
compared to previous years. This coincides with the DEA findings in
REF D. Field teams from the GOC, the UN, and the USG have reported
encountering severe coca field damage attributable to aerial
eradication, difficulty locating live, productive fields and that
aerial spraying was a major contributor to the reduction in coca
field productivity. Sustained eradication and other law enforcement
pressures have contributed to as much as a 50 percent reduction in
coca productivity in select growing areas over the last several
years. Coca yield experts concluded that the long-term, cumulative
impact of aerial eradication is effective in reducing coca
production and may pressure coca farmers to abandon coca
cultivation.
--------------------------------------------
UN SURVEY GOING TO SHOW 18 PERCENT LESS COCA
--------------------------------------------
¶7. (SBU) While not public yet, preliminary UN reports, citing heavy
eradication pressure during 2008, indicate that coca cultivation in
2008 is down by an estimated 18 percent compared to 2007. This
reduction verifies reports from USG program managers and spray
pilots who are reporting difficulties in finding coca. When found
it is less healthy, less dense, and in smaller fields. The 2008 USG
coca cultivation survey prepared by the CNC will not be released
until later this year.
¶8. (SBU) The Colombian Antinarcotics Police (DIRAN) performs an
annual coca monitoring exercise to track and measure coca
cultivation countrywide. This information is used by the DIRAN for
targeting and is not considered the official GOC cultivation number.
The GOC uses the UN cultivation numbers as its official numbers.
Data collected during overflights conducted in January 2009 reveal
that coca cultivation is down by over 20 percent compared to
February 2008 overflights of the same area. While DIRAN coca
cultivation data are used solely for planning eradication activities
and are not as rigorous as USG or UN cultivation figures, they show
that coca cultivation in Colombia is trending downward.
--------------------------------------
AERIAL ERADICATION HURTS FARC FINANCES
--------------------------------------
¶9. (SBU) Post reporting (REF F) and GOC reports, based largely on
documents recovered from the laptop computers of two Revolutionary
Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) Secretariat members killed in 2008,
indicate that coca eradication efforts have caused financial
hardship for the organization. Communications from FARC field
commanders reveal that aerial eradication has impacted the FARC's
ability to generate revenue from drug trafficking activities. In
one communication, a FARC leader cited that massive aerial
eradication has reduced revenues from coca cultivation and
production and that funds were dangerously low for maintaining
FARC-run radio stations, workshops, and schools and for buying
weapons and other war material. Recently, the Bureau of
Intelligence and Research (INR) did a classified report dealing with
such issues.
¶10. (U) Document analysis and interviews with FARC deserters
conducted by the Colombian Ministry of Defense paint a compelling
picture of a FARC in serious decline, in large part to
de-capitalization as a consequence of sustained eradication,
military pressure, and interdiction efforts. FARC deserters report
that the formerly robust Eastern Bloc, concentrated in southeastern
Colombia, has seen revenues from drug trafficking decline
significantly and that some FARC fronts have gotten out of the drug
trafficking business altogether. According to deserter accounts,
aerial eradication has impacted a key source of FARC revenue by
cutting coca cultivation and reducing the FARC's ability to obtain
sufficient amounts of coca leaf to process into cocaine. Lack of
logistical support, including food, is one of the deserter's primary
reasons for leaving the FARC, although not the primary one.
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FIELD STUDY AND INTERVIEWS FIND ERADICATION WORKS
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¶11. (SBU) The NAS hired an experienced field researcher in conflict
zones to do a study of a specific part of Colombia that has
historically seen significant coca cultivation, serious violence,
and a lack of GOC presence. The area has also received significant
aerial eradication, as well as alternative development and military
assistance. The researcher was asked to assess the effectiveness of
Plan Colombia's illicit crop reduction efforts in this area of
Northern Colombia. The region has long been fought over by
insurgents and paramilitary groups who sought to gain control of
lucrative coca production and marketing. Based on research and
hundreds of field interviews, the contractor estimated that aerial
eradication has reduced coca cultivation in Catatumbo by over 60
percent compared to 2001 and he also concluded that aerial spray has
forced many farmers to abandon coca cultivation, reduced the
profitability of the cocaine trade and led to a decrease in income
for the FARC groups operating in the area. This de-capitalization
has allowed the GOC public forces to significantly reduce the FARC
presence in the area.
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VERIFICATION MISSION SAYS SPRAYING IMPACTS COCA
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¶12. (SBU) The NAS works with the GOC and other USG agencies to
perform a ground-truthing verification mission for aerial
eradication twice a year. The report for the 19th verification
mission is not complete, but preliminary results indicate that
aerial eradication is accurate and effective. The efficacy rate
continued to be above 85%, which is the historical average. The
lead USG Scientific Advisor, and retired USDA Soil Scientist said,
"Results of the 19th Coca Verification Mission continue to show that
aerial spraying strongly impacts coca, both directly and by forcing
growers to replant or prune plants. The net effect must be
significant loss of coca leaf and cocaine productivity."
Observations from other USG and GOC raters were consistent with this
statement.
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MANUAL ERADICATION HAS PLAYED A BIG ROLE
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¶13. (SBU) Many of the studies and observations in this cable deal
with aerial eradication. This is because they were either directly
looking at aerial eradication, or they were using data going back
many years before there was significant manual eradication.
However, manual eradication has clearly played a role in the
successes mentioned in this cable and is an important component of
our consolidated counternarcotics strategy in Colombia. In 2008,
the GOC manually eradicated almost 100,000 hectares, a new record.
Together, manual and aerial eradication eradicated almost 230,000
hectares, also a new record. Unfortunately, the GOC is having
trouble funding manual eradication. The goal for 2009 is 70,000
hectares and year-to-date the GOC has manually eradicated only about
15,000 hectares.
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ERADICATION IS IMPORTANT COMPONENT OF STRATEGY
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¶14. (SBU) As we have learned since the beginning of Plan Colombia,
aerial eradication is not the panacea for the complex problem of
illicit coca cultivation in Colombia; however, studies and reports
over the last year indicate that it is effective and serves as an
important tool in the fight against narcoterrorism. Post's CSDI
will incorporate aerial eradication, alternative development,
judicial reform, police/military assistance, and human rights
assistance in a concerted fashion to try and break the cycle of drug
trafficking, violence, poverty, and impunity that has plagued
Colombia for decades. No single one of these tools can do the job
alone, but working together, we believe they will make a
difference.
BROWNFIELD