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Viewing cable 08ZAGREB872, WIDE DIVERGENCE OF VIEWS ON PROSPECT OF DEBT

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
08ZAGREB872 2008-12-19 15:22 2011-08-25 00:00 UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Embassy Zagreb
VZCZCXRO0952
OO RUEHAG RUEHAST RUEHDA RUEHDF RUEHFL RUEHIK RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHLN
RUEHLZ RUEHNP RUEHPOD RUEHROV RUEHSK RUEHSR RUEHVK RUEHYG
DE RUEHVB #0872 3541522
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 191522Z DEC 08
FM AMEMBASSY ZAGREB
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 8870
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHDC PRIORITY
UNCLAS ZAGREB 000872 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/ERA, TREASURY FOR OASIA 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: ECON EFIN HR PGOV
SUBJECT: WIDE DIVERGENCE OF VIEWS ON PROSPECT OF DEBT 
FINANCING CRISIS IN 2009 
 
1. (SBU) SUMMARY:  Since the government has failed in its 
goal to balance the 2009 budget (septel), instead turning in 
a plan for a 0.88 percent of GDP deficit, experts inside and 
outside the government are discussing with renewed vigor 
whether or not the economy can maintain the necessary 
liquidity to avoid a major collapse next year.  Individuals 
in the financial services industry, as well as the head of 
Croatia's largest tour operator, have told us it is just a 
matter of time before the government is forced to turn to the 
IMF for aid.  Within the government, officials of the central 
bank have not surprisingly been more optimistic, saying that 
financing has already been lined up through at least the 
first quarter of 2009.  Nevertheless, the central bank today 
downgraded yet again its GDP growth forecast to 1 percent for 
2009, suggesting that pressure on the state budget could be 
even higher.  Croatia continues to have real advantages in 
significant foreign reserves and a stable banking system, but 
the mood in the private sector continues to darken, and the 
government is finding it increasingly difficult to put a 
positive spin on the situation.  END SUMMARY. 
 
2. (SBU) Conversations with private sector business leaders 
reveal a generally sour mood.  A prominent American 
businessman in the financial services industry, who has long 
experience in Croatia, told the Ambassador this week that a 
Croatian government debt default was a real possibility and 
that IMF aid was simply a matter of time.  The chief 
economist at the Croatian subsidiary of Raiffeisen Bank, as 
well as the head of the Croatian Employers Association, have 
recommended in the press that the government bring in the IMF 
sooner rather than later.  The CEO of Croatia's largest tour 
operator, accounting for a third of bookings in Croatia's 
most important foreign exchange earner, told us to expect a 
serious economic slowdown next year as tourist numbers drop 
and private sector companies struggle to find new lines of 
credit.  Indeed, according to Raiffeisen Bank, private 
companies' foreign debt increased 40 percent last year, 
accounting for by far the largest share of Croatia's overall 
stock of foreign debt (an estimated 95 percent of GDP). 
 
3. (U) Officials at the Croatian central bank (HNB) 
understandably present a more optimistic face, and seem to 
have the plans in place to back up their claims that the 
crisis is manageable, for now.  According to the HNB's 
Director of Financial Stability, Croatia has already lined up 
the funds necessary to finance government debt through the 
first quarter of 2009.  He also claimed that second quarter 
debt financing should be manageable on the domestic market. 
The plan for the second half of 2009 is, market permitting, 
to issue a euro-bond in the neighborhood of 1 billion euro. 
The HNB also points to its substantial foreign currency 
reserves, an estimated 8 billion euro.  The HNB governor 
yesterday said he would be the first to recommend turning to 
the IMF if he felt the situation were to become 
unsustainable.  He then announced that the HNB was 
downgrading GDP growth forecasts for next year from 2 percent 
to 1 percent. 
 
4. (SBU) COMMENT:  The government's inability to balance the 
budget adds another degree of risk to an already fragile 
outlook for 2009.  And given the fact that government revenue 
forecasts are based on a presumption of 2 percent GDP growth, 
the deficit could easily spike even higher next year. 
Croatia's high level of foreign reserves and reasonably 
stable banking system continue to be bright spots for the 
economy.  There also continues to be a high level of suppport 
for and confidence in the HNB.  However, uncertainty in the 
economy's fortunes has reached the point where there is 
little room for error next year, or for any additional 
unforeseen negative shocks.  END COMMENT. 
WALKER