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Viewing cable 08TOKYO3302, JAPAN SEES DRAMATIC DOWNTURN IN OCTOBER EXPORT DATA

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
08TOKYO3302 2008-12-03 09:01 2011-08-25 00:00 UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Embassy Tokyo
VZCZCXRO7144
PP RUEHFK RUEHKSO RUEHNAG RUEHNH
DE RUEHKO #3302/01 3380901
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 030901Z DEC 08
FM AMEMBASSY TOKYO
TO RUCPDOC/USDOC WASHDC PRIORITY
RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 9182
INFO RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING PRIORITY 6649
RUEHBY/AMEMBASSY CANBERRA PRIORITY 2905
RUEHJA/AMEMBASSY JAKARTA PRIORITY 4396
RUEHKL/AMEMBASSY KUALA LUMPUR PRIORITY 1912
RUEHME/AMEMBASSY MEXICO PRIORITY 0559
RUEHOT/AMEMBASSY OTTAWA PRIORITY 9750
RUEHUL/AMEMBASSY SEOUL PRIORITY 2645
RUEHGP/AMEMBASSY SINGAPORE PRIORITY 7278
RUEHFK/AMCONSUL FUKUOKA PRIORITY 1242
RUEHHK/AMCONSUL HONG KONG PRIORITY 6639
RUEHNAG/AMCONSUL NAGOYA PRIORITY 9245
RUEHNH/AMCONSUL NAHA PRIORITY 3603
RUEHOK/AMCONSUL OSAKA KOBE PRIORITY 5033
RUEHKSO/AMCONSUL SAPPORO PRIORITY 1813
RUEHGV/USMISSION GENEVA PRIORITY 3443
RUEHBS/USEU BRUSSELS PRIORITY
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 TOKYO 003302 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR EAP/J 
PASS USTR FOR WCUTLER, MBEEMAN 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: ETRD ECON JA
SUBJECT: JAPAN SEES DRAMATIC DOWNTURN IN OCTOBER EXPORT DATA 
 
------- 
Summary 
------- 
 
1. (SBU) Reflecting reduced demand for Japan's key exports in 
the global economic slowdown, Japanese goods exports fell in 
October, according to Ministry of Finance trade data released 
November 20.  Exports were down 7.7 percent year-on-year, 
with the largest declines in automobiles, semiconductors, and 
chemicals.  Concurrently, imports were up 7.4 percent, 
primarily the result of higher year-on-year oil prices, and 
resulting in a JPY 63.9 billion (approx. US$670 million, at 
US$1=JPY95) trade deficit for the month.  Japan's August 
deficit of JPY 332 billion (US$3.5 billion) was the first 
non-January monthly deficit in 26 years, and this latest 
deficit is Japan's first October deficit in 28 years.  End 
summary. 
 
------------------- 
Sectoral Components 
------------------- 
 
2. (U) Japan's most important export sectors saw the greatest 
losses in October.  Transportation equipment (autos), 
electrical machinery, and chemicals collectively represent 
more than half (52.5 percent) of all Japanese exports, and 
each category saw double-digit declines.  These three 
categories together contributed 88 percent of the overall 
decline in exports for the month.  Iron and steel product 
exports, on the other hand, saw a 22 percent increase. 
 
3. (U) Dependent on foreign sources for roughly 96 percent of 
its energy needs, Japan's trade balance has been affected 
dramatically by rising commodity prices.  Slightly over one 
third of all Japanese imports consist of mineral fuels, with 
petroleum constituting roughly 19 percent total imports. 
Interestingly, while the GOJ has often raised concerns about 
food security in a trade policy context, Japan imports 
approximately 60 percent of the food it needs, and the value 
of imported foodstuffs are only 23 percent of what Japan 
spends to import mineral fuel.  Japan is highly dependent on 
these and other imported commodities, and their higher prices 
have driven up Japanese imports, as measured by value, while 
imports of manufactured goods have fallen. 
 
Select Sectoral Data Highlights: 
-------------------------------- 
 
Category               Value        Change    Share of Total 
                   (JPY 100 bil) (y-on-y, pct)  (percent) 
Exports 
Total                  6,926        -7.7           100 
Transport Equipment    1,668       -13.1            24.1 
- Motor Vehicles       1,137       -15.0            16.4 
Electrical Machinery   1,378       -10.6            19.9 
- Semiconductors         405       -12.6             5.9 
Chemicals                595       -14.4             8.5 
Iron and Steel Products  420        22.5             6.1 
 
Imports 
Total                  6,990         7.4           100 
Mineral Fuels          2,411        34.2            34.5 
- Petroleum            1,333        23.7            19.1 
Foodstuffs               563         9.4             8.1 
Electrical Machinery     740       -10.1            10.6 
Transport Equipment      159       -35.2             2.3 
 
--------------------- 
Geographic Components 
--------------------- 
 
 
TOKYO 00003302  002 OF 002 
 
 
4. (U) Japan still enjoyed substantial trade surpluses with 
North America, Asia, and Western Europe, but deficits with 
the Middle East and Australia were sufficient to push Japan's 
overall trade into deficit. 
 
5. (U) With North America, trade in both directions fell, 
although Japanese imports from Canada grew.  Overall, Japan 
still registered a JPY 506 billion (US$5.3 billion) surplus 
with North America.  Exports and imports to/from the U.S. 
fell by 19 and 11 percent, respectively.  Japan also saw 
exports and imports with Western Europe fall at comparable 
rates, leaving Japan's net surplus with Europe at JPY 296 
billion (US$3.1 billion). 
 
6. (U) In Asia, trade with China (PRC and HKG aggregated) 
represented roughly 46 percent of Japan's total two-way 
trade, and Japan enjoyed a small net surplus of roughly JPY 
90 billion (US$950 million).  Japan ran a modest surplus with 
East Asia, reflecting surpluses and larger trade volumes with 
partners like Korea, Taiwan, and Singapore, which outweighed 
deficits with other regional trading partners such as 
Indonesia and Malaysia.  A decline of 4.0 percent in exports 
to Asia was led by double-digit falls with Korea, Taiwan and 
Hong Kong.  A 5.1 percent increase in imports was driven by a 
2.9 percent increase from China and nearly 50 percent 
increases from both India and Vietnam. 
 
7. (U) In other regions, Japan's net deficit with the Middle 
East topped JPY 1.13 trillion (US$11.8 billion), as the 
October price of oil was reportedly 34 percent higher than a 
year earlier.  Japan's imports from Australia also shot up 49 
percent to JPY 477 billion (US$5 billion), passing Saudi 
Arabia and making Australia Japan's third largest source of 
imports after China and the U.S. 
 
Select Geographic Data Highlights: 
---------------------------------- 
 
Partner              Exports              Imports 
                (Value JPY 100 bil (y-on-y percent change)) 
 
North America      1,319 (-18.2)         813  (-7.2) 
- USA              1,214 (-19.0)         695 (-11.1) 
- Canada             104  (-8.0)         118 ( 24.9) 
Western Europe       942 (-17.0)         646 (-10.9) 
Asia               3,392  (-4.0)       2,943  ( 5.1) 
- China            1,161  (-0.9)       1,389  ( 2.9) 
- Hong Kong          332 (-13.7)          13 (-26.4) 
- Taiwan             369 (-10.9)         203  ( 1.7) 
- South Korea        504 (-11.0)         262  (-7.4) 
Middle East          329 ( 11.3)       1,454 ( 24.3) 
Australia            153  (-5.5)         477 ( 49.2) 
 
------- 
Comment 
------- 
 
8. (SBU) It would be premature, based on the one month's 
figures, to draw conclusions about changes to the structure 
of Japan's trade balance.  However, Japan is relatively 
sensitive to both the downturn in demand in its key sectors 
and to high commodity prices.  Already entering a recession 
before the current international economic turmoil, and unable 
to rely on exports to drive growth, Japan is caught in a 
tight spot that could increase public demand for economic 
leadership and put pressure on the government and political 
parties.  Unfortunately, Japan's domestic political situation 
has delayed the government's ability to push through a second 
stimulus package, and its large debt may limit the size of 
any future fiscal stimulus measures.  End comment. 
SCHIEFFER