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Viewing cable 08SEOUL2453, PRESS BULLETIN - December 22, 2008

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
08SEOUL2453 2008-12-22 06:16 2011-08-25 00:00 UNCLASSIFIED Embassy Seoul
O 220616Z DEC 08
FM AMEMBASSY SEOUL
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 2729
USDOC WASHDC 7934
DEPT OF TREASURY WASHINGTON DC
CIA WASHINGTON DC//DDI/OEA//
USCINCPAC HONOLULU HI//FPA//
SECDEF WASHINGTON DC
JOINT STAFF WASHINGTON DC
DIA WASHINGTON DC//DB-Z//
UNCLAS SEOUL 002453 
 
 
DEPT FOR EAP/K, EAP/PD, INR/EAP/K AND INR/IL/P 
TREASURY FOR OASIA/WINGLE 
USDOC FOR 4430/IEP/OPB/EAP/WGOLICKE 
STATE PASS USDA ELECTRONICALLY FOR FAS/ITP 
STATE PASS DOL/ILAB SUDHA HALEY 
STATE PASS USTR FOR IVES/WEISEL 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: KPAO PGOV PREL MARR ECON KS US
SUBJECT: PRESS BULLETIN - December 22, 2008 
 
Opinions/Editorials 
 
1. Wrong Troop Dispatch Should Never Be Repeated 
(Hankyoreh Shinmun, December 20, Page 27) 
 
 
Features 
2. Former U.S. Ambassador Vershbow: "In Case of Kim Jong-il's Death, 
Reform and Opening-up Will Be Accelerated... The ROK Should Prepare 
for North Korea Contingency" 
(Dong-a Ilbo, December 22, 2008, Page 8) 
 
 
Top Headlines 
 
Chosun Ilbo 
U.K., Germany, France and Japan Take Cue from U.S. 
and Seek "Bailout for Auto Industry" 
 
JoongAng Ilbo 
With U.S. and EU Nurturing Global Media Groups, 
ROK Hamstrung by "Ideology and Selfishness of 
Broadcasting Companies" 
 
Dong-a Ilbo 
Public Companies to Adopt Annual Salary System 
 
Hankook Ilbo 
Ruling GNP Offers Dialogue with Opposition Parties 
over Disputed Bills 
 
Hankyoreh Shinmun, Segye Ilbo, Seoul Shinmun, All TVs 
Public Companies to Cut 19,000-20,000 Workers 
 
 
Domestic Developments 
 
1. According to a senior ROKG official, Seoul is sounding out North 
Korea about holding behind-the-scenes talks through various 
channels. It has delivered to the U.S., Japan and China its 
expectations for a change in relations with North Korea in the 
spring. The senior ROKG official was quoted as saying: "North Korea 
doesn't always maintain a hard-line stance on the ROK. We've been 
told through various channels that the North's position has become 
more flexible." (Chosun) 
 
 
International News 
 
1. According to the Voice of America (VOA), Secretary of State 
Condoleezza Rice allegedly said during a Dec. 19 (local time) speech 
at the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR): "No one trusts the North 
Koreans. You'd have to be an idiot to trust the North Koreans. 
That's why we have a verification protocol that we are negotiating." 
(Chosun, SBS) 
 
2. With North Korea reporting on a series of visits by North Korean 
leader Kim Jong-il to various facilities amid allegations of his ill 
health, ROK and U.S. intelligence authorities are said to be judging 
that it is highly likely that the North Korean leader has actually 
visited such facilities using his personal train. (Chosun) 
 
3. According to Radio Free Asia, 19 North Korean defectors will 
stand trial in Myanmar as early as today on charges of illegally 
entering the country. They were arrested while en route to the ROK 
from China earlier this month. (Chosun) 
 
4. Adm. Mike Mullen, Chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff, 
told reporters in Kabul, Afghanistan on Dec. 20 (local time) that 
between 20,000 and 30,000 additional U.S. troops could be sent to 
Afghanistan to bolster the 31,000 already there. (JoongAng, Hankook, 
Hankyoreh, Segye, Seoul, MBC) This development seems likely to lead 
to increased U.S. calls for Seoul to send troops to the war-torn 
country. (JoongAng, MBC) 
 
5. The U.S. is reportedly conducting "war-gaming simulations" in the 
event of an emergency in North Korea. (Dong-a) 
 
 
Media Analysis 
 
North Korea 
Conservative Chosun Ilbo and SBS, a private broadcasting network, 
replayed a Voice of America (VOA) report quoting Secretary of State 
Condoleezza Rice as allegedly saying during a Dec. 19 (local time) 
speech at the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR): "No one trusts the 
North Koreans.  You'd have to be an idiot to trust the North 
Koreans.  That's why we have a verification protocol that we are 
negotiating." 
 
Conservative Chosun Ilbo reported on its front page, quoting a 
senior ROKG official, that Seoul is seeking behind-the-scenes 
dialogue with North Korea through various channels.  Chosun went on 
to say that Seoul has told the U.S., Japan and China that it hopes a 
change will happen in relations with the North in the spring. 
Chosun quoted the ROKG official again, noting that: "North Korea 
doesn't always maintain a hard-line stance on the ROK.  We've been 
told through various channels that the North's position has become 
more flexible." 
 
Afghanistan 
 
Most of the ROK media reported on press remarks by Adm. Mike Mullen, 
Chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff, in Kabul, Afghanistan on 
Dec. 20 (local time) that between 20,000 and 30,000 additional U.S. 
troops could be sent to Afghanistan to bolster the 31,000 already 
there.  Right-of-center JoongAng Ilbo and MBC, a public broadcaster, 
viewed this development as likely to lead to increased U.S. calls 
for Seoul to send troops to the war-torn country. 
 
In a related development, left-leaning Hankyoreh Shinmun 
editorialized on Saturday (Dec. 20): "The U.S. invaded Iraq without 
any legal or procedural justification, and the ROK's Zaytun unit was 
dispatched to the Iraq war in this context.  This was a fatal 
mistake which debased the quality of our alliance with the U.S. and 
considerably undermined the identity of our foreign policy under the 
name of the ROK-U.S. alliance.  The U.S. is reportedly asking for 
the deployment of Korean troops to Afghanistan directly and 
indirectly.  What happened in the Iraq war is being repeated in 
Afghanistan.  Nevertheless, it is said that the ROKG is failing to 
flatly deny the U.S. request and is just watching the situation. 
This would not have been the case if Seoul had learned even a small 
lesson from its troop dispatch to Iraq." 
 
 
Opinions/Editorials 
 
Wrong Troop Dispatch Should Never Be Repeated 
(Hankyoreh Shinmun, December 20, Page 27) 
 
The Zaytun Unit completely withdrew from Iraq yesterday.  Now is the 
time to stop justifying the troop dispatch in a far-fetched way but 
to find a lesson with a cool-headed reflection. 
 
The ROK troops produced good results in Iraq through various 
activities.  We hope that their assistance has provided big help to 
local residents.  It is also worth mentioning that the Zaytun Unit 
finished its mission with no casualties of physical conflicts. 
 
However, this partial accomplishment cannot smooth over the 
fundamental error.  First of all, the deployment was in the nature 
of participation in the aggressive war.  The U.S. invaded Iraq 
without any legal or procedural justification, and the Zaytun Unit 
was dispatched in this context.  This was a fatal mistake which 
debased the quality of the alliance and considerably undermined the 
identity of the ROK's foreign policy under the name of the ROK-U.S. 
alliance.  The fact that the ROK sent combat troops for non-combat 
missions clearly reveals that it was an unjustifiable troop 
dispatch.  After the dispatch, despite opposition from a majority of 
the people, Seoul extended the troop deployment four times in the 
process of "expansive reproduction" of errors.  One of the results 
was the kidnapping of 23 Koreans in Afghanistan last year. 
 
If the troop deployment was aimed at helping rebuild Iraq and 
strengthening friendship with locals, Seoul should have sent a 
civilian team.  The Zaytun Unit spent a budget of over 700 billion 
won, but only one tenth of it was invested in reconstruction.  Most 
of the money was used to maintain the unit in a highly inefficient 
way.  Still, if the ROKG claims that it had "set the model of a 
civilian operation," it is tantamount to deceiving the people who 
paid taxes.  By joining the invasion of Iraq, the ROK gained an 
image as a participant in the invasion of Iraq and caused a severe 
national division.  This is also an immeasurable loss. 
 
The U.S. is reportedly asking for the deployment of ROK troops to 
Afghanistan directly and indirectly.  What happened in the Iraqi war 
is being repeated in Afghanistan.  Nevertheless, it is said that the 
ROKG is failing to flatly deny the U.S. request but is just watching 
the situation.  This would not have been the case if Seoul had 
learned even a small lesson from its troop dispatch to Iraq. 
 
 
Features 
 
Former U.S. Ambassador Vershbow: "In Case of Kim Jong-il's Death, 
Reform and Opening-up Will Be Accelerated... The ROK Should Prepare 
for North Korea Contingency" 
(Dong-a Ilbo, December 22, 2008, Page 8) 
 
By Washington Correspondent Ha Tae-won 
 
Former U.S. Ambassador to the ROK Vershbow gave his first interview 
since retirement. 
 
Mr. Vershbow: "The Obama Administration will maintain the large 
framework of the Six-Party Talks. 
 
A rapprochement between the leaders of the ROK and the U.S. is more 
important than the timing of their meeting. 
 
Former ROK President Roh is a maverick thinking beyond common 
sense." 
 
"North Korean Chairman Kim Jong-il will die sooner or later, and the 
ROK should prepare for contingency in North Korea." 
 
Former U.S. Ambassador to the ROK Alexander Vershbow made the 
statement during an interview at the U.S. branch of Dong-a Ilbo in 
the National Press Building, Washington, on December 16.  He also 
stated, "In the light of my experience in Europe, the death of a 
dictator accelerates reform and opening-up and improves the people's 
quality of life.  North Korea is not an exception." 
 
He predicted, "No matter what changes may be made in the North 
Korean leadership, a new leader will not be able to ignore the 
people's quality of life and welfare as they do now, and the Kims' 
iron grip will not be possible." 
 
Q. During your term of office, North Korea conducted a nuclear test, 
and there were discussions about the declaration to the end of the 
Korean War and a peace regime. 
 
A. North Korea's missile launches in July, 2006, were like an 
appetizer, and its nuclear test in October was like a main dish. 
(laughter)  However, since North Korea's move on a nuclear test was 
detected in the summer of that year, I was not surprised at all, but 
instead, I was surprised that Pyongyang fired seven short-range and 
mid-to-long range missiles at the same time.  Although the ROK 
offered many carrots, they did not serve as enough leverage.  North 
Korean leader Kim Jong-il seemed to have already decided to launch 
missiles and conduct the nuclear test in the beginning of the year. 
 
Q. How much progress has been made in the discussions about the 
declaration of the end of the war? 
 
A. President George W. Bush considered declaring the end of the war 
as part of the discussions about a peace regime, if North Korea is 
completely denuclearized so that it may not have nuclear weapons, 
not to mention one gram of plutonium or enriched uranium.  However, 
the Roh Moo-hyun Administration interpreted this creatively and 
tried to push for it as a separate event.  This is why former 
President Roh repeatedly urged President Bush to clarify his 
statement further at the summit in Sydney in September 2007. 
 
Q. Were there any specific discussions about the declaration of the 
end of the war? 
 
A. The ROK and U.S. authorities agreed during the consultations that 
it is desirable to have dialogue about the declaration of the end of 
the war inside the Korean Peninsula.  I think that Panmunjeom is the 
most logical venue.  Shuttling between the North and the South for 
dialogue was also proposed. 
 
Q. If you describe former President Roh in one word... 
 
A. I can say, "maverick," a popular expression in the U.S.  This is 
because his opinion is stronger than those of his staff, and he 
often thinks beyond common sense.  For a good example of this, he 
pushed for the ROK-U.S. Free Trade Agreement (FTA) in the face of 
opposition from his support group.  During the ROK-U.S. summit in 
Gyeongju, North Gyeongsang Province, in November, 2005, both leaders 
had a debate for more than an hour, and it ended in a tie. 
 
Q. What do you think of the stalled Six-Party Talks? 
 
A. Although the Barack Obama Administration will assess the 
Six-Party Talks as a whole, I think that its basic strategy and goal 
will be maintained.  However, we need to think about whether we made 
too many concessions to the North in return for progress in the 
negotiations with North Korea.  A lesson from failure to put a 
verification protocol into writing would be that if you deal with 
the North, you should have a written commitment, not a verbal 
promise. 
 
Q. The ROK's role in Afghanistan is emerging as a pending issue in 
the ROK-U.S. alliance. 
 
A. Under the current international system, no nation wants a free 
ride.  As a nation which joined the ranks of leading nations by 
joining the G20 summit, the ROK needs to find the fields that it may 
contribute to on its own before other nations make a request.  The 
ROK should look at its contribution to Afghanistan not with a sense 
of duty for the sake of the ROK-U.S. alliance but as a role of the 
world's leading nation. 
 
Q. If you recommend an appropriate time for an ROK-U.S. summit... 
 
A: No one knows what the most ideal timing is (for such a summit.) 
Generally speaking, it would be desirable to hold a summit after the 
current ROK administration and the incoming Obama Administration 
establish close cooperation at foreign and defense ministerial level 
following the Senate's confirmation of major Cabinet posts.  The 
most important thing is how well they understand each other during 
their first meeting and not how fast they meet. 
 
 
Stephens