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Viewing cable 08MAPUTO1247, SCENESETTER FOR A/S FRAZER DEC 18 VISIT TO

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
08MAPUTO1247 2008-12-10 11:44 2011-08-25 00:00 UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Embassy Maputo
VZCZCXRO2598
RR RUEHBZ RUEHDU RUEHJO RUEHMR RUEHRN
DE RUEHTO #1247/01 3451144
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 101144Z DEC 08
FM AMEMBASSY MAPUTO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 9706
INFO RUCNSAD/SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY
RUEHLO/AMEMBASSY LONDON 0308
RUEHFR/AMEMBASSY PARIS 0170
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 MAPUTO 001247 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL OTRA OVIP ECON ETRD EINV KPKO EAID
MZ 
SUBJECT: SCENESETTER FOR A/S FRAZER DEC 18 VISIT TO 
MOZAMBIQUE 
 
1. (SBU) The Embassy warmly welcomes you to Mozambique, 
widely considered to be an exemplary post-conflict democratic 
success story in Africa. Following the 2008 visits of 
Ambassador Yates and Major General Altshuler from AFRICOM, 
Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for African Affairs 
Theresa Whelan, and Department of State DAS Carol Thompson, 
your presence in Mozambique will further accentuate the 
upswing in bilateral relations. Your visit will again 
underscore that the U.S. is the largest bilateral donor to 
Mozambique, one of only two countries in the world benefiting 
from President Bush's three major initiatives--the Millennium 
Challenge Corporation (MCC), the President's Emergency Plan 
for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR), and the President's Malaria 
Initiative (PMI).  The visit will also provide the 
opportunity to further USG interest in encouraging Mozambique 
to participate politically towards regional stability and 
militarily in regional peacekeeping operations. 
 
----------------------------- 
A Post-Conflict Success Story 
----------------------------- 
 
2. (U) Since the signing of the 1992 Rome Peace Accord which 
ended sixteen years of civil war, Mozambique has made 
significant progress as a young democracy and is rightfully 
considered a post-conflict success story. The Frelimo party 
led the independence struggle and has maintained political 
power since Portuguese colonial rule ended in 1975. Frelimo's 
military opponent during the subsequent civil war, Renamo, 
has been the main opposition party since the first elections 
in 1994. In December 2004 Mozambique held its third 
presidential and legislative elections. Armando Guebuza won 
the presidency by a wide margin, defeating Renamo leader 
Afonso Dhlakama (who also ran unsuccessfully in 1994 and 
1999). 
 
--------------------------------------- 
A Democratic Example, But Still Fragile 
--------------------------------------- 
 
3. (SBU) Voter turnout in the December 2004 presidential and 
legislative elections was approximately 45 percent, down 
substantially from the 75 percent turnout in 1999. Although 
slightly fewer Frelimo voters cast their ballots than did so 
in 1999, about half of the Renamo supporters did not vote. 
Some analysts suggest Renamo supporters may have felt cheated 
in the very close 1999 election and cynically saw little 
point in participating. International observer groups 
monitored the elections and indicated that the elections were 
carried out in a generally successful and peaceful manner but 
noted there were irregularities in the administration of the 
elections. All agreed, nonetheless, that final results 
broadly reflected the will of voters. 
 
4. (SBU) In the December 2004 legislative election Frelimo 
won 160 out of 250 seats in the National Assembly, just seven 
short of a two-thirds majority. Renamo won 84 seats and an 
allied coalition of small parties took the remaining six. 
Since 2005 several of these small parties have distanced 
themselves from Renamo. Renamo's unexpectedly poor showing 
has led to disarray within the party and Dhlakama's 
leadership has been called into question. This has weakened 
any organized opposition to Frelimo, now in power for more 
than thirty years. 
 
5. (SBU) Local elections were held November 19, 2008 in all 
43 municipalities; in 2009, the country will hold its fourth 
national elections. Prior to the November 19 elections, 
Renamo failed to re-nominate popular Beira mayor Daviz 
Simango, allegedly due to his success and potential as a 
threat to wrest control of Renamo from Dhlakama. Simango ran 
and won as an independent, in an election which saw Frelimo 
consolidate its power.  A successful independent candidate 
could pave the way for a new political party. 
 
-------------------------------- 
Responsible Economic Stewardship 
-------------------------------- 
 
6. (U) Since the mid 1980s, the government has broadly 
followed IMF and World Bank guidelines on economic issues. 
Mozambique's macroeconomic reforms and success in attracting 
large investment projects have resulted in an average annual 
GDP growth rate of eight percent from 1994-2007, the highest 
in Africa over this time period. The 2008 growth rate is 
lower, 6.5 percent due, in part, to the difficult world 
 
MAPUTO 00001247  002 OF 002 
 
 
economic situation. Economic growth is from a very low base 
however, as per capita GDP for 2008 registered around USD 
375. Foreign direct investment, exports, and revenue 
collection all have increased significantly. U.S. investment 
in Mozambique has grown steadily, and in 2007 the U.S. was 
the largest foreign direct investor. Most of the state 
companies have been privatized, with only about one dozen 
remaining in government hands. 
 
--------------------------------------------- ---- 
Aid Community Voicing Concerns; USG Largest Donor 
--------------------------------------------- ---- 
 
7. (U) The government receives approximately 50% of its 
budget directly from foreign aid and this trend is expected 
to continue despite recent complaints by European donors 
about the state of democracy, particularly governance and 
corruption issues. As the line between Frelimo and the 
government continues to blur, the group of donor nations 
expressed concern in 2008 that many democracy indicators have 
not been met. As a result, Sweden, Switzerland, and Denmark 
recently announced a restructuring of their foreign 
assistance which appears to reduce the amount of aid provided 
to Mozambique. The USG is the largest bilateral donor in the 
country with USD 325 million. In particular, our USD 216 
million in PEPFAR funds in 2008 total more than the HIV/AIDS 
funds committed by all other donors and the Mozambican 
government combined. Although the USG does not provide direct 
budget support, we have forgiven all of Mozambique's USD 151 
million debt as part of Mozambique's Highly Indebted Poor 
Countries relief initiative. 
 
------------------------------ 
PEPFAR, MCC, PMI: A Unique Mix 
------------------------------ 
 
8. (SBU) Mozambique is one of only two countries in the world 
to receive combined PEPFAR, MCC and PMI support from the USG. 
The MCC Compact signed in 2007 is on track for 
implementation. The five-year, $507 million Compact will 
reduce poverty through increased incomes and employment by 
improving water systems, sanitation, roads, land tenure, and 
agriculture, with a focus on the country's four northern 
provinces. Despite some frustration about the lengthy 
negotiation and implementation process, in July the MCC 
program began advertising tenders to bidders for several of 
its projects. 
 
-------- 
Zimbabwe 
-------- 
 
9. (SBU) The GRM has been hesitant to criticize other African 
governments over human rights violations and historically has 
abstained from voting on any such resolutions. GRM officials 
have stated publicly that Mozambique, instead of criticizing 
actions, prefers to focus on what can be done to address such 
issues within the regional institutions (e.g. the AU and 
SADC). Mozambique is the vice-chair of the Political and 
Defense Organ of SADC and GRM officials have been very 
involved in the SADC mediation efforts in Zimbabwe. Senior 
GRM officials explain that it is important for them to keep 
the channels of communication open with Mugabe, even though 
they too see the need for some kind of political solution to 
the ongoing crisis.  The growing humanitarian crisis may 
spill across the border into Mozambique. 
 
----------------------- 
Peacekeeping Operations 
----------------------- 
 
10. (SBU) Mozambique's armed forces (FADM) have benefited 
from substantial USG military training and assistance, 
especially through the African Contingency Operations and 
Training Assistance (ACOTA) program. The FADM successfully 
participated in the African Union's 2005 peacekeeping 
operations in Burundi, and has publicly recognized its 
interest in a higher-profile contribution to peacekeeping 
operations in Sudan. The Embassy is working to assist FADM in 
further developing its peacekeeping capacity and we look 
forward to supporting the GRM's eventual contribution to 
regional operations. 
Chapman