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Viewing cable 08LIMA1897, PERU ANNOUNCES $3.3 BILLION STIMULUS PACKAGE

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
08LIMA1897 2008-12-10 18:33 2011-08-25 00:00 UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Embassy Lima
VZCZCXYZ0001
PP RUEHWEB

DE RUEHPE #1897 3451833
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 101833Z DEC 08
FM AMEMBASSY LIMA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 9723
INFO RUEHSG/AMEMBASSY SANTIAGO 2087
RUEHBO/AMEMBASSY BOGOTA 6187
RUEHQT/AMEMBASSY QUITO 2217
RUEHLP/AMEMBASSY LA PAZ DEC BRASILIA 8004
RUEHBU/AMEMBASSY BUENOS AIRES 3559
RUEHME/AMEMBASSY MEXICO 3779
RUEHZP/AMEMBASSY PANAMA 0947
RUEHCV/AMEMBASSY CARACAS 1293
RUCPDOC/DEPT OF COMMERCE WASHINGTON DC
RUEHC/DEPT OF LABOR WASHINGTON DC
RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASH DC
UNCLAS LIMA 001897 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: ECON EFIN PE
SUBJECT: PERU ANNOUNCES $3.3 BILLION STIMULUS PACKAGE 
 
SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED, HANDLE ACCORDINGLY 
 
1. (U)  On December 7, Peruvian President Alan Garcia 
announced a stimulus package amounting to 10 billion soles 
(approximately $3.3 billion), or 2.47% of Peru's GDP.  The 
intention is to provide a counter-cyclical fiscal boost to 
the economy.  Thus far, the most significant negative effects 
in Peru of the global financial crisis have been decreased 
export earnings, holds on planned mining investments due to 
plummeting commodities prices (particularly copper and other 
metals), and a sharp drop in Lima's stock market.  Although 
the announced plan is mostly a repackaging of existing 
moneys, observers reacted positively and the stock exchange 
climbed over 5% on December 9. 
 
2. (U)  The GOP's stimulus package targets the construction 
sector, with a planned 3.1 billion soles ($1 billion) 
investment.  Garcia explained that the construction sector 
has led the impressive growth of the Peruvian economy over 
the last few years.  Construction has a ripple effect 
throughout the economy, he noted, making it particularly 
appropriate to channel a large slice of new funding to it. 
 
3. (U)  Other sectors with earmarks for new funding are small 
and medium enterprises (SME) and the export sector, which 
together will receive 1.36 billion soles (about $400 
million).  Social programs and aid to workers will receive 
550 million soles (approximately $160 million).  Garcia said 
that his intention in putting money into these areas is to 
ensure an immediate benefit to lower-income Peruvians.  The 
largest single line-item in the package, according to the 
GOP's breakdown, is an investment of 5 billion soles ($1.6 
billion) in "investments additional to the 2009 budget." 
This includes infrastructure projects, among other things. 
 
4. (U)  According to a World Bank study, these new 
investments would not require incurring a fiscal deficit in a 
medium case ("base") scenario.  In a worst-case scenario, 
however, it may.  Therefore, the GOP has secured contingent 
lines of credit amounting to 9.25 billion soles, or $3.1 
billion, from international financial institutions. 
 
5. (U)  President Garcia also called on Peruvian businesses 
to up their investments.  "These have been bonanza times," he 
said.  "As good Peruvians, we would do well to invest what we 
have gained, in difficult times." 
 
6. (SBU)  Comment:  The global economic downturn has provided 
the necessary cover for answering social and business calls 
for increased government spending.  Although much of the 
stimulus plan is merely a repackaging of initiatives that 
were already in the works, the announcement boosted 
confidence that the GOP is staying ahead of the financial 
crisis.  Naturally, the success of this package depends on 
the length and depth of the world financial turmoil. 
However, international financial institutions believe that 
Peru has demonstrated a track record of sound fiscal policy. 
This makes even the fulfillment of a worst-case fiscal 
scenario cause only for concern, not for desperation. 
NEALON