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Viewing cable 08KHARTOUM1764, DECEMBER 7 DARFUR UPDATE

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
08KHARTOUM1764 2008-12-07 10:30 2011-08-24 16:30 UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Embassy Khartoum
VZCZCXRO0316
OO RUEHGI RUEHMA RUEHROV
DE RUEHKH #1764/01 3421030
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 071030Z DEC 08
FM AMEMBASSY KHARTOUM
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 2501
INFO RUCNFUR/DARFUR COLLECTIVE
RHMFISS/CJTF HOA
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 KHARTOUM 001764 
 
DEPT FOR AF A/S FRAZER, SE WILLIAMSON, AF/SPG 
NSC FOR PITTMAN AND HUDSON 
DEPT PLS PASS USAID FOR AFR/SUDAN 
ADDIS ABABA ALSO FOR USAU 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL KPKO ASEC SOCI AU UNSC SU
SUBJECT: DECEMBER 7 DARFUR UPDATE 
 
REF: A) KHARTOUM 1588 
      B) KHARTOUM 1672 
      C) KHARTOUM 1654 
 
 
1. (SBU) SUMMARY:  In the last push before the long Eid Al-Adha 
holiday (December 8-12), Darfur rebels, signatories to the DPA, and 
regional players all shared their views regarding the peace process, 
the potential for a ceasefire or monitoring mechanism for violence 
in Darfur, and the lack of DPA implementation.  JEM spokesman Ahmed 
Hussein told poloff that he is more optimistic about the peace 
process following JEM meetings with the Chief Mediator and Qatari 
officals the last week of November.  Center for Humanitarian 
Dialogue representatives said work on "the humanitarian equivalent 
of the ceasefire commission" is proceeding well and requested USG 
funding.  Frustrated SLM/Minnawi (SLM/MM) representatives shared 
once more that there has been no real progress on DPA implementation 
or the delivery of needed funds promised by the NCP since September. 
 END SUMMARY. 
 
2.  (SBU)  The information below is based on meetings with Egyptian 
poloff Tamer Azzam, JEM spokesman Ahmed Hussein, CHD's Theo Murphy 
and Dennis McNamara, and SLM/MM's Ali Traio, Bushara Hassan, and 
Muhammad Tijani.  All meetings and conversations occurred from 
December 4-6. 
 
HUMANITARIAN MONITORING MECHANISM 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
3.  (SBU) Dennis McNamara and Theo Murphy of the Center for 
Humanitarian Dialogue (CHD) told poloff on December 6 that their 
work is progressing well in establishing "the humanitarian 
equivalent of the ceasefire commission" (reftel a.)  Murphy and 
McNamara said that they secured JEM and SLA/AW commitment to 
participate in this commission during their recent field visits with 
both rebel movements.  (Note:  Murphy and McNamara had just returned 
from week-long trip to some of Darfur's most remote and least 
visited areas along the Libyan-Sudanese border and in Jebel Marra. 
Both CHD representatives were noticeably energized by their trip. 
End Note.)  Murphy and McNamara said that their commission will 
first focus on vehicle hijackings and later broaden its mission to 
investigate other humanitarian violations and acts of violence in 
Darfur. 
 
4.  (SBU)  Murphy said that representatives from the Government of 
Sudan, UNAMID, the humanitarian community and the three major 
non-signatory movements (JEM, SLA/AW, and SLA Unity) would form an 
office in El-Fasher and send representatives to staff the 
commission.  McNamara emphasized that the GoS has not given its 
commitment to guarantee the security of rebel representatives in 
El-Fasher - a particularly sensitive point given the GoS's expulsion 
of former AMIS CFC representatives from El-Fasher.  Murphy and 
McNamara said it may be possible to establish this commission in 
less than two months, and emphasized that the commission will begin 
a dialogue between the GoS and rebels which "will hopefully feed 
into the peace process."  McNamara requested USG support (in the 
range of 100,000-200,000 USD) to "just keep us running for the next 
couple of months" and said that the U.K. Embassy in Khartoum had 
already promised them additional funds (as long as CHD was able to 
find other additional donors.)  (Note:  Poloff did not comment on 
the possibility of USG funding and said that he would pass along 
this request to Embassy leadership and Washington. End Note.) 
 
PEACE PROCESS 
- - - - - - - 
5.  (SBU)  On December 5, JEM Spokesman Ahmed Hussein called poloff, 
stating that following his meetings in Doha, JEM representatives are 
more optimistic about Qatar's role, the work of the Chief Mediator, 
and the relationship between the two.  (Comment:  This represents a 
remarkable change from our last conversation with Hussein, reftel, 
where he strongly criticized the Chief Mediator and appeared deeply 
suspicious of Qatar's involvement.  End Comment.)  Hussein said that 
he was impressed by Qatar's  Minister of State for Foreign Affairs 
Mahmoud and "confident in his abilities" and that he was pleased 
that Chief Mediator Bassole and the Qataris were working very 
closely.  Hussein said that within two weeks JEM will draft and 
share their "clear position" on the Darfur peace process.  Hussein 
said that JEM representatives would stop in Paris to meet with 
French Officials and laughed when asked if he would also meet with 
Abdul Wahid Al-Nur saying, "we would like to meet him, but he is 
very difficult and refuses to meet with almost everyone."  Hussein 
appeared very skeptical about the possibility of a ceasefire at this 
stage saying, "UNAMID is interested in establishing a ceasefire 
mechanism, but this must come through negotiations with all parties, 
not just unilaterally from the GoS or UNAMID." 
 
6.  (SBU)  In three separate meetings on December 5 and 6,  SLM/MM 
 
KHARTOUM 00001764  002 OF 002 
 
 
representatives in Khartoum uniformly criticized the direction of 
the peace process and called for independent SLM/MM representation 
in any negotiations.  These officials stated that UNAMID, the Chief 
Mediator, Qatar, and the GOS have all snubbed SLM/MM as these 
parties discuss future negotiations.  Head of DPA Implementation and 
Minnawi confidant, Muhammad Tijani, said that SLM/MM may be able to 
accept negotiations where the DPA is not explicitly referenced but 
used as a guiding principle.  He said that both non-signatory and 
signatory rebels need to focus first on unification, and the SLM/MM 
can play a crucial role in this and in serving as an intermediary 
with the Government. 
 
7.  (SBU)  Egyptian political Officer Tamer Azzam told poloff on 
December 4, that Egypt is growing more anxious about Bassole's 
neglect of important "regional players" (i.e. Libya and Egypt.) 
Azzam predicted that Libya could "easily spoil the process" and 
hinted that Egypt has also become frustrated with the direction of 
the peace process.  Azzam said that there has been no progress in 
scheduling a meeting between JEM leader Khalil Ibrahim and senior 
GoS officials in Cairo (as President Mubarak offered in his November 
12 visit to Khartoum, reftel c.) 
 
NO PROGRESS ON DPA 
- - - - - - - - - - 
8.  (SBU)  All representatives from the Sudan Liberation Movement of 
Minni Minnawi (SLM/MM) told poloffs that there has been no progress 
in implementation of the DPA in the last several weeks and appeared 
very cynical and pessimistic about the GoS ever honoring its 
agreements.  Tijani called the GoS announcement in state press of 
funding for the compensation as "just propaganda."  (Note:  Sudanese 
state press, SUNA, published an article on December 6 saying that an 
account of 40 million SDP was opened at the Central Bank of Sudan 
for compensation fund.  End Note.)  Tijani said that the GoS 
"continues to play games, by saying that they don't have the right 
account numbers and throwing other bureaucratic impediments in our 
way."  Additionally, the GoS has not yet dispersed the 10 million 
dollars promised as "seed money" for the DRDF, said SLM/MM 
representatives.  Tijani said that some government representatives 
such as Darfur negotiator Atta Al-Manan have become personally 
"ashamed" by the NCP's inability to deliver on its promises.  Head 
of SLM capacity building, Bushara Hassan, said that the NCP is 
intentionally trying to discredit SLM/MM by denying the movement its 
rightful funds, and said that the movement is "really hurting 
financially and materially."  MP Ali Traio said that SLM/MM 
continues to try to improve its movement politically and militarily, 
and said that SLM/MM hopes to hold a large leadership conference (of 
up to 1,500 people) for the movement in Darfur in January. 
 
COMMENT 
- - - - 
9.  (SBU)  JEM appears to be warming-up to the idea of negotiations 
in Qatar and the work of the Chief Mediator.  While positive, the 
negativity of SLM/MM and Sudan's neighboring countries is troubling 
and the Mediation will need to court these important actors in the 
coming weeks.  SLM/MM needs to learn how to inject itself into 
discussions about the future of Darfur, and should not wait for 
UNAMID, the Mediation, or even the GoS to take the first step. 
SLM/MM rightfully feels entitled, but could easily spoil any peace 
process, if it is not included from the start.  There are many 
different (and potentially competing) ideas regarding monitoring and 
ceasefire mechanisms floating around.  Although CHD has some of the 
best access and relationships with rebels on the ground, their 
proposal (which lacks specificity, especially as to how their 
committee will investigate humanitarian violations) should be 
coordinated with other ideas from UNAMID, the GOS, and the 
international community. In all these cases, the GOS continues to 
play its traditional negative role: playing off one side against 
another, promising but not delivering, playing for time, encouraging 
the naove and desperate optimism of regional and international 
actors always willing to give the NCP just one more chance. 
 
FERNANDEZ