Keep Us Strong WikiLeaks logo

Currently released so far... 97115 / 251,287

Articles

Browse latest releases

Browse by creation date

Browse by origin

A B C D F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W Y Z

Browse by tag

A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W X Y Z
ETRD EAGR ETTC EAID ECON EFIN ECIN EINV ELAB EAIR ENRG EPET EWWT ECPS EIND EMIN ELTN EC ETMIN EUC EZ ET ELECTIONS ENVR EU EUN EG EINT ER ECONOMICS ES EMS ENIV EEB EN ECE ECOSOC EK ENVIRONMENT EFIS EI EWT ENGRD ECPSN EXIM EIAD ERIN ECPC EDEV ENGY ECTRD EPA ESTH ECCT EINVECON ENGR ERTD EUR EAP EWWC ELTD EL EXIMOPIC EXTERNAL ETRDEC ESCAP ECO EGAD ELNT ECONOMIC ENV ETRN EIAR EUMEM ENRGPARMOTRASENVKGHGPGOVECONTSPLEAID EREL ECOM ECONETRDEAGRJA ETCC ETRG ECONOMY EMED ETR ENERG EITC EFINOECD EURM EENG ERA EXPORT ENRD ECONEINVETRDEFINELABETRDKTDBPGOVOPIC EGEN EBRD EVIN ETRAD ECOWAS EFTA ECONETRDBESPAR EGOVSY EPIN EID ECONENRG EDRC ESENV ETT EB ENER ELTNSNAR ECHEVARRIA ETRC EPIT EDUC ESA EFI ENRGY ESCI EE EAIDXMXAXBXFFR EETC ECIP EIAID EIVN EBEXP ESTN EING EGOV ETRA EPETEIND ELAN ETRDGK EAIDRW ETRDEINVECINPGOVCS EPEC ENVI ELN EAG EPCS EPRT EPTED ETRB EUM EAIDS EFIC EFINECONEAIDUNGAGM EAIDAR ESF EIDN ELAM EDU EV EAIDAF ECN EDA EXBS EINTECPS ENRGTRGYETRDBEXPBTIOSZ EPREL EAC EINVEFIN ETA EAGER EINDIR ECA ECLAC ELAP EITI EUCOM ECONEFINETRDPGOVEAGRPTERKTFNKCRMEAID EARG ELDIN EINVKSCA ENNP EFINECONCS EFINTS ECCP ETC EAIRASECCASCID EINN ETRP EAIDNI EFQ ECOQKPKO EGPHUM EBUD ECONEINVEFINPGOVIZ ENERGY ELB EINDETRD EMI ECONEFIN EIB EURN ETRDEINVTINTCS EIN EFIM ETIO ELAINE EMN EATO EWTR EIPR EINVETC ETTD ETDR EIQ ECONCS EPPD ENRGIZ EISL ESPINOSA ELEC EAIG ESLCO EUREM ENTG ERD EINVECONSENVCSJA EEPET EUNCH ECINECONCS ETRO ETRDECONWTOCS ECUN EFND EPECO EAIRECONRP ERGR ETRDPGOV ECPN ENRGMO EPWR EET EAIS EAGRE EDUARDO EAGRRP EAIDPHUMPRELUG EICN ECONQH EVN EGHG ELBR EINF EAIDHO EENV ETEX ERNG ED
KMDR KPAO KPKO KJUS KCRM KGHG KFRD KWMN KDEM KTFN KHIV KGIC KIDE KSCA KNNP KHUM KIPR KSUM KISL KIRF KCOR KRCM KPAL KWBG KN KS KOMC KSEP KFLU KPWR KTIA KSEO KMPI KHLS KICC KSTH KMCA KVPR KPRM KE KU KZ KFLO KSAF KTIP KTEX KBCT KOCI KOLY KOR KAWC KACT KUNR KTDB KSTC KLIG KSKN KNN KCFE KCIP KGHA KHDP KPOW KUNC KDRL KV KPREL KCRS KPOL KRVC KRIM KGIT KWIR KT KIRC KOMO KRFD KUWAIT KG KFIN KSCI KTFIN KFTN KGOV KPRV KSAC KGIV KCRIM KPIR KSOC KBIO KW KGLB KMWN KPO KFSC KSEAO KSTCPL KSI KPRP KREC KFPC KUNH KCSA KMRS KNDP KR KICCPUR KPPAO KCSY KTBT KCIS KNEP KFRDCVISCMGTCASCKOCIASECPHUMSMIGEG KNNB KGCC KINR KPOP KMFO KENV KNAR KVIR KDRG KDMR KFCE KNAO KDEN KGCN KICA KIMMITT KMCC KLFU KMSG KSEC KUM KCUL KMNP KSMT KCOM KOMCSG KSPR KPMI KRAD KIND KCRP KAUST KWAWC KTER KCHG KRDP KPAS KITA KTSC KPAOPREL KWGB KIRP KJUST KMIG KLAB KTFR KSEI KSTT KAPO KSTS KLSO KWNN KPOA KHSA KNPP KPAONZ KBTS KWWW KY KJRE KPAOKMDRKE KCRCM KSCS KWMNCI KESO KWUN KPLS KIIP KEDEM KPAOY KRIF KGICKS KREF KTRD KFRDSOCIRO KTAO KJU KWMNPHUMPRELKPAOZW KEN KO KNEI KEMR KKIV KEAI KWAC KRCIM KWCI KFIU KWIC KCORR KOMS KNNO KPAI KBWG KTTB KTBD KTIALG KILS KFEM KTDM KESS KNUC KPA KOMCCO KCEM KRCS KWBGSY KNPPIS KNNPMNUC KWN KERG KLTN KALM KCCP KSUMPHUM KREL KGH KLIP KTLA KAWK KWMM KVRP KVRC KAID KSLG KDEMK KX KIF KNPR KCFC KFTFN KTFM KPDD KCERS KMOC KDEMAF KMEPI KEMS KDRM KEPREL KBTR KEDU KNP KIRL KNNR KMPT KISLPINR KTPN KA KJUSTH KPIN KDEV KTDD KAKA KFRP KWNM KTSD KINL KJUSKUNR KWWMN KECF KWBC KPRO KVBL KOM KFRDKIRFCVISCMGTKOCIASECPHUMSMIGEG KEDM KFLD KLPM KRGY KNNF KICR KIFR KM KWMNCS KAWS KLAP KPAK KDDG KCGC KID KNSD KMPF KPFO KDP KCMR KRMS KNPT KNNNP KTIAPARM KDTB KNUP KPGOV KNAP KNNC KUK KSRE KREISLER KIVP KQ KTIAEUN KPALAOIS KRM KISLAO KWM KFLOA
PHUM PINR PTER PGOV PREL PREF PL PM PHSA PE PARM PINS PK PUNE PO PALESTINIAN PU PBTS PROP PTBS POL POLI PA PGOVZI POLMIL POLITICAL PARTIES POLM PD POLITICS POLICY PAS PMIL PINT PNAT PV PKO PPOL PERSONS PING PBIO PH PETR PARMS PRES PCON PETERS PRELBR PT PLAB PP PAK PDEM PKPA PSOCI PF PLO PTERM PJUS PSOE PELOSI PROPERTY PGOVPREL PARP PRL PNIR PHUMKPAL PG PREZ PGIC PBOV PAO PKK PROV PHSAK PHUMPREL PROTECTION PGOVBL PSI PRELPK PGOVENRG PUM PRELKPKO PATTY PSOC PRIVATIZATION PRELSP PGOVEAIDUKNOSWGMHUCANLLHFRSPITNZ PMIG PREC PAIGH PROG PSHA PARK PETER POG PHUS PPREL PS PTERPREL PRELPGOV POV PKPO PGOVECON POUS PGOVPRELPHUMPREFSMIGELABEAIDKCRMKWMN PWBG PMAR PREM PAR PNR PRELPGOVEAIDECONEINVBEXPSCULOIIPBTIO PARMIR PGOVGM PHUH PARTM PN PRE PTE PY POLUN PPEL PDOV PGOVSOCI PIRF PGOVPM PBST PRELEVU PGOR PBTSRU PRM PRELKPAOIZ PGVO PERL PGOC PAGR PMIN PHUMR PVIP PPD PGV PRAM PINL PKPAL PTERE PGOF PINO PHAS PODC PRHUM PHUMA PREO PPA PEPFAR PGO PRGOV PAC PRESL PORG PKFK PEPR PRELP PREFA PNG PGOVPHUMKPAO PRELECON PINOCHET PFOR PGOVLO PHUMBA PRELC PREK PHUME PHJM POLINT PGOVPZ PGOVKCRM PGOVE PHALANAGE PARTY PECON PEACE PROCESS PLN PRELSW PAHO PEDRO PRELA PASS PPAO PGPV PNUM PCUL PGGV PSA PGOVSMIGKCRMKWMNPHUMCVISKFRDCA PGIV PRFE POGOV PEL PBT PAMQ PINF PSEPC POSTS PHUMPGOV PVOV PHSAPREL PROLIFERATION PENA PRELTBIOBA PIN PRELL PGOVPTER PHAM PHYTRP PTEL PTERPGOV PHARM PROTESTS PRELAF PKBL PRELKPAO PKNP PARMP PHUML PFOV PERM PUOS PRELGOV PHUMPTER PARAGRAPH PERURENA PBTSEWWT PCI PETROL PINSO PINSCE PQL PEREZ PBS

Browse by classification

Community resources

courage is contagious

Viewing cable 08HANOI1391, Vietnam: Further Effects of Global Financial Crisis

If you are new to these pages, please read an introduction on the structure of a cable as well as how to discuss them with others. See also the FAQs

Understanding cables
Every cable message consists of three parts:
  • The top box shows each cables unique reference number, when and by whom it originally was sent, and what its initial classification was.
  • The middle box contains the header information that is associated with the cable. It includes information about the receiver(s) as well as a general subject.
  • The bottom box presents the body of the cable. The opening can contain a more specific subject, references to other cables (browse by origin to find them) or additional comment. This is followed by the main contents of the cable: a summary, a collection of specific topics and a comment section.
To understand the justification used for the classification of each cable, please use this WikiSource article as reference.

Discussing cables
If you find meaningful or important information in a cable, please link directly to its unique reference number. Linking to a specific paragraph in the body of a cable is also possible by copying the appropriate link (to be found at theparagraph symbol). Please mark messages for social networking services like Twitter with the hash tags #cablegate and a hash containing the reference ID e.g. #08HANOI1391.
Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
08HANOI1391 2008-12-22 02:18 2011-08-25 00:00 UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Embassy Hanoi
VZCZCXRO1876
PP RUEHCHI RUEHDT RUEHFK RUEHHM RUEHKSO RUEHNAG RUEHNH RUEHPB
DE RUEHHI #1391/01 3570218
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 220218Z DEC 08
FM AMEMBASSY HANOI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 8897
INFO RUEHHM/AMCONSUL HO CHI MINH 5417
RUEHGP/AMEMBASSY SINGAPORE 2724
RUCNASE/ASEAN MEMBER COLLECTIVE
RUEHZU/ASIAN PACIFIC ECONOMIC COOPERATION
RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHINGTON DC
RUCPDOC/DEPT OF COMMERCE WASHINGTON DC
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 HANOI 001391 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR EAP/MLS MBROWN 
SINGAPORE FOR TREASURY 
TREASURY FOR SCHUN 
USTR FOR DBISBEE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: EINV ECON VM
SUBJECT: Vietnam: Further Effects of Global Financial Crisis 
 
REF:   A) Hanoi 1158 (Effects of U.S. Financial Crisis on VN) 
B) Hanoi 1171 (VN Stock Market Drops on Global Financial Turmoil) 
C) HCMC 972 (VN's Exporters Expect to Grow in 2009, But More 
Slowly) 
  D) Hanoi 1206 (GVN Cuts Rates on Fears of Slowdown) 
  E) Hanoi 1242 (VN Macroeconomic Update) 
F) Hanoi 1250 (VN Favors Global Solution to Financial Crisis) 
  G) Hanoi 1316 (VN Shifts Focus to Maintaining Growth) 
 
HANOI 00001391  001.2 OF 002 
 
 
 
1. (SBU) Summary:  The U.S. financial crisis and the resulting 
global economic slowdown continue to have ramifications in Vietnam 
(reftels).  The GVN is preparing a fiscal stimulus in response to 
growing negative economic numbers, though the size and details are 
still under consideration.  Demand in Vietnam's major labor export 
markets is weakening, and as a result, remittances from overseas 
workers are expected to decline.  Vietnamese tourism officials 
report that arrivals are falling significantly and will likely drop 
in 2009 compared to this year.  The IMF projects that Vietnam's 
economy will grow 5 percent next year and inflation fall to single 
digits.  The current account deficit will decline but remain high as 
a percentage of GDP.  The fiscal deficit will rise to 8.3 percent of 
GDP, a shortfall the GVN will likely fund domestically.  The risks 
to these projections are to the downside, the IMF says.  End 
summary. 
 
Government Preparing Fiscal Stimulus 
------------------------------------ 
 
2. (SBU) In response to the growing tide of negative economic news 
(reftels), the GVN recently announced a USD 1 billion stimulus 
package and now says it is considering boosting the size by 
approximately USD 5 billion more.  The original package of USD 1 
billion reportedly included money for high-priority development 
projects, including construction and housing and interest-free 
credit for state-owned distributors to make rice purchases. 
 
3. (SBU) According to sources at the Office of Government, an 
official announcement on the additional USD 5 billion is expected at 
the monthly cabinet meeting sometime this week.  Nonetheless, Deputy 
Prime Minister Nguyen Sinh Hung discussed the additional amount with 
a group of young businessmen on December 14, saying that the GVN 
"will use its reserve fund to support production, business and 
consumption, as well as exempt and cut down taxes to businesses, 
particularly small and medium-sized firms." He added that part of 
the package will be used to invest in rural infrastructure 
development, including the construction of schools, hospitals and 
houses for low income residents, as well as "vocational training, 
hunger eradication and poverty elimination."  Hung also said that 
the money would come from various sources, including the issuance of 
new government bonds. 
 
4. (SBU) Local economists are already privately voicing concerns to 
us about how the money will be spent, noting that channeling more 
money into state owned enterprises (SOEs) will result in potentially 
inefficient or unimplemented projects, a primary source of inflation 
earlier this year.  Nguyen Dinh Cung, Director of Macroeconomics for 
the Central Institute for Economic Management, told the press that 
he couldn't say "whether it is a good and effective investment - it 
depends on how the government spends and controls it."  The PM and 
several DPMs held a meeting with SOEs on December 16 to discuss 
measures to prevent economic slowdown, but many of the SOEs used 
their time to request funds from the stimulus package.  The Chairman 
of Vinatex, a state owned textile firm, took a different approach, 
suggesting that the GVN distribute stimulus funds directly to needy 
people "as is done in other countries." 
 
Foreign Demand for Vietnamese Labor Drops 
----------------------------------------- 
 
5. (SBU) At a December 15 Hanoi Conference on Employment and Labor 
Export, Vietnamese officials said that demand in Vietnam's major 
labor export markets has weakened as a result of the global economic 
crisis.  Factories in Taiwan, Malaysia, and Korea are reducing 
operations and are no longer providing employees with extra work, 
which usually accounts for 20 to 40 per cent of the workers' total 
income.  Some Vietnamese workers in Taiwan reportedly face the 
prospect of having their labor contracts terminated early, and some 
firms in Taiwan and Malaysia have stopped receiving workers despite 
signing contracts.  In the first 11 months of 2008, Vietnam sent 
78,700 workers overseas to its main markets.  The target for 2009 is 
 
HANOI 00001391  002.2 OF 002 
 
 
90,000 workers, but many now question the feasibility of this goal. 
A large decline in foreign worker remittances would not help 
Vietnam's relatively precarious balance of payments situation, which 
relied on remittances for an estimated $8 billion in foreign 
exchange payments in 2008. 
 
Tourism Falls 
------------- 
 
6. (SBU) Another source of needed foreign exchange earnings -tourism 
- is also declining as a result of the global economic downturn. 
International tourist arrivals have been falling over recent months, 
with October bringing 300,000 visitors, a drop of almost 12 percent 
compared to October of last year.  November arrivals were down 22 
percent year on year, although part of this decline may have been 
due to airport closures in Bangkok.  Tourism operators note that 
clients from the United States and Europe are increasingly scarce 
compared to years past.  The Minister for Culture, Sports and 
Tourism warns that the tourism sector, which employs more than 10 
percent of Vietnam's workforce, is facing zero or possibly negative 
growth in 2009.  The Vietnam National Administration of Tourism is 
more pessimistic, projecting that arrivals will fall 20 to 30 
percent compared to 2008. 
 
IMF Projects 2009 Growth of 5 Percent 
------------------------------------- 
 
7. (SBU) In a December 18 briefing for the diplomatic corps at the 
conclusion of annual Article IV Consultations, IMF Assistant 
Director in the Asia and Pacific Department Shogo Ishii said the IMF 
projects that Vietnam's economy will grow by 5 percent in 2009 and 
year on year inflation will fall to single digits by year end.  The 
current account deficit is forecasted to drop with very rapidly 
declining imports offsetting lower exports, FDI, and private 
remittances.  However, the current account deficit will remain at a 
high level (9 percent of GDP) and remains a source of vulnerability 
given Vietnam's relatively low 3 months of international reserves to 
import cover.  The IMF said that risks to these projections are 
primarily on the downside given likely further drops in global 
economic growth. 
 
8. (SBU) The IMF projects that the GVN's fiscal deficit (using 
international standards) will rise significantly to 8.3 percent of 
GDP in 2009 given falling tax revenues.  The GVN told the IMF it 
will fund the shortfall domestically, probably through bond 
issuance.  The Ministry of Planning and Investment (MPI) tells us 
that funding will come from several sources, including disbursed 
ODA.  This budget projection does not include the $6 billion in 
announced fiscal stimulus.  The IMF said the GVN did not ask for 
advice on the stimulus package and the IMF believes its size, 
details, and funding are still under debate.  The IMF representative 
noted that fiscal stimulus could lead to increased imports and 
pressure Vietnam's balance of payments.  The IMF cautioned the GVN 
about further monetary policy easing and the impact it could have on 
the exchange rate.  [Note: Per reftels, the GVN has dramatically 
dropped its base interest rate, now at 8.5 percent, and cut banks' 
required reserve ratios in the last two months. End note.]  It also 
emphasized that the GVN should be prepared to deal with any banking 
system strains as non-performing loans are expected to increase in 
2009. 
 
Michalak