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Viewing cable 08HANOI1315, VIETNAM'S PERSPECTIVES ON DECEMBER ASEAN SUMMITS

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
08HANOI1315 2008-12-02 07:53 2011-08-25 00:00 UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Embassy Hanoi
VZCZCXRO3625
OO RUEHCHI RUEHCN RUEHDT RUEHHM
DE RUEHHI #1315/01 3370753
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 020753Z DEC 08
FM AMEMBASSY HANOI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 8793
INFO RUEHHM/AMCONSUL HO CHI MINH PRIORITY 5333
RUEHZS/ASEAN COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 0249
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 HANOI 001315 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
FOR EAP/MLS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PREL PHUM PGOV UNSC EFIN ECON BM VM
SUBJECT: VIETNAM'S PERSPECTIVES ON DECEMBER ASEAN SUMMITS 
 
REF: A) STATE 123211, B) HANOI 1311 
 
HANOI 00001315  001.2 OF 002 
 
 
1.  (SBU) SUMMARY: Anxieties about political unrest notwithstanding, 
Vietnam considers the December 15-18 ASEAN summits to be among the 
most important diplomatic events of the year and will be sending a 
large delegation.  MFA and think tank contacts confirm that the 
global financial crisis will be a major topic of discussion and 
highlighted the ASEAN+3 Chiang Mai Initiative as the region's 
principle response.  Our contacts expressed hope that the ASEAN 
Charter will enhance the body's standing with its partners, 
rationalize its organizational structure, and streamline 
decision-making; however, they stressed that ASEAN will remain 
consensus-driven and reluctant to interfere in member states' 
internal affairs.  "Hectic" negotiations continue on ASEAN's human 
rights body, with no consensus yet on its mandate, staffing, and 
funding.  Burma will not feature highly on the agenda, according to 
our contacts, although it will likely be discussed by ARF and 
between ASEAN and the United Nations.  END SUMMARY. 
 
ANXIETY... MIXED WITH A BIT OF SCHADENFREUDE 
-------------------------------------------- 
 
2.  (SBU) Vietnam considers the December 15-18 ASEAN summits to be 
the highlight of its diplomatic calendar, explained MFA ASEAN 
Department Director Pham Minh Thu.  MFA contacts would not comment 
on foreign press reports that Vietnam, Cambodia, and Laos had 
requested that the meetings be delayed; however, there is clear 
concern that political instability in Thailand might disrupt the 
events.  According to MFA America's Division DDG Le Chi Dung, 
Vietnam has arranged to send its 160-person delegation through a 
military airfield near Bangkok.  Still, amid the concern and 
professed sympathy, one could detect a smidgen of delight, thinly 
suppressed, at the Thais' predicament.  "In the end it's their 
problem," shrugged Nguyen Vu Tung of the MFA-affiliated Diplomatic 
Academy of Vietnam (DAV).  Asked about the Thai government's 
capacity to host such a large and complicated gathering, Thu 
commented (somewhat elliptically) that ASEAN's theme song -- chosen 
this year in a region-wide competition -- was, after all, composed 
by a Thai. 
 
NEW ASEAN CHARTER, OLD "ASEAN WAY" 
---------------------------------- 
 
3.  (SBU) Whatever their feelings about the summit itself, our 
contacts waxed enthusiastic about the ASEAN charter, which takes 
effect December 15, even if the commemoration ceremony itself is 
delayed or canceled.  Both Tung and Thu highlighted the fact that 
under its new charter, ASEAN will enjoy standing as a legal entity. 
Previously, an agreement with ASEAN was technically a collection of 
ten separate agreements, which could be broken by any party; now, 
agreements will be with ASEAN itself.  This, Tung argued, will not 
only enhance ASEAN's ability to conduct external business, it will 
help compel consensus within the Association.  Similarly, by 
bringing ASEAN's sprawling collection of councils, committees, and 
sub-committees under three pillars -- and by subordinating these to 
a coordinating council and permanent secretariat in Jakarta -- the 
Charter will not only make for a more efficient structure, it will 
ensure more streamlined decision-making. 
 
4.  (SBU) Our contacts emphasized that ASEAN will remain a 
consensus-driven association -- "intergovernmental, not 
supranational," as the MFA's Thu put it -- and that decision-making 
will continue to be based on consultation.  What will change, Tung 
noted, is the degree to which the process is institutionalized, with 
more regularized channels for persuasion and compromise.  And this, 
Tung speculated, could make ASEAN as a whole less timid, 
particularly on sensitive topics. 
 
FINANCIAL CRISIS: ASEAN AND THE CHIANG MAI INITIAITVE 
--------------------------------------------- -------- 
 
5.  (SBU) The ongoing global financial turmoil will be a central 
topic at the summit meetings, our contacts said; however, the only 
concrete measure under discussion is the Chiang Mai Initiative, 
formed by the members of ASEAN+3.  According to the DAV's Tung, 
there have been some proposals to double the Initiative's planned 
$80 billion reserve and to refine "modalities" for disbursing 
support.  Both Thu and Tung confirmed that financial assistance 
given under the Chiang Mai Initiative would likely come without 
IMF-style conditions. 
 
HUMAN RIGHTS BODY 
----------------- 
 
6.  (SBU) The Terms of Reference for ASEAN's Human Rights Body are 
still being drafted, our contacts insisted.  The MFA's Thu denied 
any urgency, saying that the aim was simply to have the body up and 
running by next year's ASEAN summit.  He acknowledged differences 
 
HANOI 00001315  002.2 OF 002 
 
 
among member states, but declined to characterize them, saying it 
was an "internal ASEAN matter."  The DAV's Tung was more 
forthcoming, describing ongoing negotiations as "hectic."  According 
to Tung, major differences remain over the body's mandate, staffing, 
and funding.  Will the body have an investigative/monitoring 
function, or will it focus on capacity building; to whom will the 
body report; will there be permanent staff; will the body accept 
outside funding, and if so, for what purposes?  Vigorous discussions 
on these and other central questions continue, Tung said, with older 
ASEAN members Indonesia, Thailand, and the Philippines arrayed 
against new members Burma, Cambodia, Laos, and Vietnam. 
 
BURMA 
----- 
 
7.  (SBU) Burma will not figure prominently on the agenda, our 
contacts contended, though it will almost certainly come up during 
the ARF summit and between ASEAN and the UN.  Looking a bit farther 
ahead, Tung suggested that the streamlined decision-making 
procedures that come with the new ASEAN charter might make it more 
difficult for Burma to hide behind ASEAN's consensus-driven 
conservatism.  Thu disagreed, offering Vietnam's standard line on 
non-intervention and the ASEAN way.  (Note: See ref. B for a more 
complete analysis of ASEAN's place in Vietnam's Burma policy.  End 
note.)