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Viewing cable 08DHAKA1358, EARLY RETURNS SHOW AN AWAMI LEAGUE SWEEP IN PARLIAMENTARY

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
08DHAKA1358 2008-12-30 02:16 2011-08-25 00:00 UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Embassy Dhaka
VZCZCXYZ0040
OO RUEHWEB

DE RUEHKA #1358 3650216
ZNR UUUUU ZZH (CCY TXT ADX: 140655 MSI4017 TMC)
O 300216Z DEC 08
FM AMEMBASSY DHAKA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 8037
INFO RUCNCLS/ALL SOUTH AND CENTRAL ASIA COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEHLO/AMEMBASSY LONDON PRIORITY 1918
RUEHGO/AMEMBASSY RANGOON PRIORITY 2720
RHHJJPI/PACOM IDHS HONOLULU HI PRIORITY
UNCLAS DHAKA 001358 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
C O R R E C T E D  C O P Y (ADDING CAPTION) 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR PTER KDEM EAID BG
SUBJECT: EARLY RETURNS SHOW AN AWAMI LEAGUE SWEEP IN PARLIAMENTARY 
ELECTIONS 
 
--------------- 
SUMMARY 
--------------- 
 
1. (SBU) Early unofficial returns from Bangladesh's Parliamentary 
elections on 12/29 indicate a landslide victory for the Awami League 
led by former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina. The Awami League 
spokesman told PolOff that Hasina would offer to work closely with 
the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) led by her political rival, 
former Prime Minister Khaleda Zia. Should Hasina follow through with 
such conciliatory gestures she could begin the transformation of 
Bangladeshi politics that have been plagued by endemic violence and 
a winner-take-all mentality. That would greatly improve prospects of 
making this moderate, predominantly Moslem nation of 150 million 
people a stable democracy and a reliable partner in the war on 
terror. 
 
--------------------------------------------- -- 
A LANDSLIDE FOR THE AWAMI LEAGUE 
--------------------------------------------- -- 
 
2. (SBU) As unofficial election results came in the evening of 
12/29, giddy Awami League leaders appeared stunned by the scope of 
their victory. Party Spokesman Syed Ashraful Islam expected the 
Awami League to win up to 210 seats in the 300-member Parliament, a 
two-thirds majority that would give the party power to amend the 
constitution. Journalists gave similar projections; some said the 
Awami League margin could be even higher. Many prominent BNP 
national leaders appeared set to lose their seats, including party 
Secretary General Khandaker Delwar Hossain, Standing Committee 
Members Shamsul Islam and Khandaker Mosharraf Hossain, and party 
Vice Chairman M.K. Anwar. Another apparent loser was Motiur Rahman 
Nizami, the head of the BNP's main political ally, the Islamist 
party Jamaat-e-Islami. 
 
----------------------------------------- 
AWAMI LEAGUE NEXT STEPS 
----------------------------------------- 
 
3. (SBU) Reached by phone in his home constituency, Awami League 
Spokesman Ashraf said Sheikh Hasina was preparing a speech in which 
she would be "kind and generous" to her opponents and invite them to 
work together. Others said the Awami League was mulling how best to 
reach out to Khaleda Zia to create an atmosphere of cooperation 
between two parties that historically have reveled in tearing one 
another down.  Hasina also has reportedly urged Awami League 
supporters to show restraint in reacting to their victory. Ashraf 
said other actions the party would take included increasing the 
number of Parliament seats reserved for women and ratifying 
Caretaker Government ordinances, many of which were designed to end 
endemic political fraud and corruption. He said the party also would 
consider reverting back to Bangladesh's 1973 constitution, which 
banned political parties organized in the name of religion. That 
would be a direct attack on Jamaat-e-Islami, the BNP ally. 
 
--------------------------------------------- - 
WHY THE APPARENT WIPE-OUT? 
--------------------------------------------- - 
 
4. (SBU)   In retrospect, the BNP decision to focus its campaign on 
criticism of the two-year-old Caretaker Government appears to have 
been a mistake. While high food prices angered many during the past 
year, Bangladeshis applauded the Caretaker Government's efforts to 
fight endemic corruption.  Media reports two weeks before the 
election implicating Khaleda Zia's youngest son in a bribery scandal 
involving Siemens also may have hurt the BNP. Ashraf argued that 
young, first-time voters and women - demographic groups probably 
most disillusioned by graft - strongly supported the Awami League. 
The election outcome also likely reflects widespread public 
dissatisfaction with the 2001-2006 BNP government. 
 
--------------------------------------------- -- 
COMMENT:  HOW WILL THE BNP REACT? 
--------------------------------------------- -- 
 
5. (SBU) The BNP reaction to the apparent thumping remained unclear 
as of 2200 local time on 12/29. Should the party blame the loss on 
allegations of media and Caretaker Government bias, what so far has 
been an unusually smooth election could yet turn ugly. Sheikh 
Hasina's expected victory speech on 12/30 will be an important 
opportunity to set a more civil tone to Bangladesh's typically 
take-no-prisoners politics, and the Embassy will urge the Awami 
League to be magnanimous in victory. Likewise, the Embassy will urge 
the BNP to accept the results of what so far appears to have been a 
fair and credible election and to play a responsible role in 
opposition.