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Viewing cable 08BEIRUT1706, LEBANON: PRESIDENT'S TRIP TO IRAN YIELDS NO NEW ECONOMIC

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
08BEIRUT1706 2008-12-01 08:43 2011-08-24 16:30 UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Embassy Beirut
VZCZCXRO2747
RR RUEHAG RUEHBC RUEHDE RUEHDF RUEHIK RUEHKUK RUEHLZ RUEHROV RUEHSR
DE RUEHLB #1706/01 3360843
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 010843Z DEC 08
FM AMEMBASSY BEIRUT
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 3707
INFO RUEHEE/ARAB LEAGUE COLLECTIVE
RUCNMEM/EU MEMBER STATES COLLECTIVE
RHEHAAA/NSC WASHDC
RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHDC
RUCPDOC/USDOC WASHDC
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIRUT 001706 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR NEA/ELA 
STATE PASS USTR FRANCESCKI 
STATE PASS USAID BEVER/LAUDATO/SCOTT 
TREASURY FOR MNUGENT AND SBLEIWEISS 
USDOC FOR 4520/ITA/MAC/ONE 
NSC FOR ABRAMS/RAMCHAND/YERGER/MCDERMOTT 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: ECON EFIN PREL PGOV LE
SUBJECT: LEBANON: PRESIDENT'S TRIP TO IRAN YIELDS NO NEW ECONOMIC 
AGREEMENTS (ECONOMIC WEEK IN REVIEW, NOVEMBER 24 - 30, 2008) 
 
CONTENTS 
-------- 
 
-- NO NEW ECONOMIC AGREEMENTS SIGNED WITH IRAN 
-- CABINET APPROVES MEGAPORTS MOU; MEASURES TO IMPROVE MOBILE 
NETWORK 
-- CENTRAL BANK GOVERNOR: EIGHT PERCENT INFLATION IN 2008 
-- GOL FOCUSES ON DAMS 
-- MINISTRY OF ECONOMY AND WIPO HOLD IPR SEMINAR 
-- U.S. REMAINS LEBANON'S MAIN SOURCE OF IMPORTS 
-- LEBANON RANKS FIRST IN ARAB ECONOMIC FREEDOM SURVEY 
-- EIU: GDP GROWTH TO REACH 3.1 PERCENT IN 2009 
 
 
NO NEW ECONOMIC AGREEMENTS 
SIGNED WITH IRAN 
------------- 
 
1. (SBU) Arab nationalist As-Safir reported November 26 that during 
the visit to Iran of President Sleiman November 24-25,  Iranian 
President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said a joint Lebanese-Iranian 
ministerial commission will soon be set up to reinforce bilateral 
relations, revive previous agreements signed, and follow-up on new 
agreements.  Antoine Constantine, an advisor to Minister of Economy 
and Trade Mohammad Safadi who accompanied Lebanese President Sleiman 
to Iran, told us the visit resulted in no new economic agreements, 
and noted that despite a previous agreement on facilitating 
bilateral trade, trade flows between the two countries remain small. 
 
 
CABINET APPROVES MEGAPORTS MOU; 
MEASURES TO IMPROVE MOBILE NETWORK 
-------------------- 
 
2. (U) In its November 27 session, the Lebanese cabinet approved the 
signing of the memorandum of understanding between the U.S. and 
Lebanon on the Megaports project.  The project covers cooperation to 
prevent illicit trafficking in nuclear and other radioactive 
material through provision of equipment and training to Lebanese 
customs. 
 
3. (U) In addition, the cabinet approved a number of measures to 
improve mobile telecom services, including expanding the mobile 
network (the first phase of which is expected to be completed by 
end-April 2009), reducing the price of calls and of other service 
fees, as well as extending the expiry date of pre-prepaid minutes 
from one to three months.  The cabinet also gave the go ahead for 
the Telecom Ministry to issue tenders, starting in February 2009, 
for management of the two mobile networks, mandating that there be 
no fewer than four bidders per contract. 
 
CENTRAL BANK GOVERNOR: EIGHT 
PERCENT INFLATION IN 2008 
-------------------- 
 
4. (U) On November 20, Central Bank Governor Riad Salameh publicly 
said that inflation is expected to be approximately eight percent in 
2008, and less than six percent in 2009.  GDP is expected to reach 
$29 billion in 2008, while real growth is estimated at six percent. 
Salameh asserted that Lebanese interest rates and the exchange rate 
would remain stable in 2009. 
 
GOL FOCUSES ON WATER MANAGEMENT 
------------------- 
 
5. (U) On November 24, Finance Minister Mohammad Chatah and Minister 
of Energy and Water Alain Tabourian decided to move forward on the 
construction of ten dam projects, at an estimated cost of up to $600 
million, according to Blominvest Bank's weekly report.  Chatah said 
that better water management through dams and reservoirs is a 
priority for Lebanon, and the GOL hopes to move ahead quickly with 
the projects.  Chatah also stressed the importance of tackling 
national power utility Electricite du Liban's (EDL) staggering 
deficit, which runs at approximately $1.5 billion annually. 
 
MINISTRY OF ECONOMY AND 
WIPO HOLD IPR SEMINAR 
------------------- 
 
 
BEIRUT 00001706  002 OF 002 
 
 
6. (U) The World Intellectual Property Organization (WIPO), in 
cooperation with the Ministry of Economy and Trade (MOET), organized 
a seminar on Industrial Property and the Madrid System on November 
25-26.  The seminar featured discussions by WIPO specialists on 
topics such as the Madrid Protocol and its benefits, the Singapore 
Treaty, and the protection of non-traditional marks.  Judge Marlene 
El Jurr and MOET IPR specialist Wissam Al Amil (both of whom have 
attended USPTO training programs) gave presentations on trademark 
enforcement in Lebanon and the role of the IPR Unit at the MOET. 
 
U.S. REMAINS LEBANON'S MAIN 
SOURCE OF IMPORTS 
-------------------- 
 
7. (U) According to USDOC statistics, U.S. exports to Lebanon 
increased by 81 percent during the first three quarters of 2008, 
reaching $1.08 billion compared to $599 million during the same 
period in 2007.  According to Lebanese Customs, U.S. exports to 
Lebanon ranked first followed by China, France, Italy, and Germany. 
Major U.S. exports to Lebanon include mineral fuel (49 percent of 
all U.S. exports to Lebanon), automotive products (16 percent), and 
machinery (9 percent).  Meanwhile, Lebanese exports to the U.S. 
increased by 1.63 percent during the first three quarters of 2008, 
reaching $79 million, compared to $78 million during the same period 
in 2007.  Lebanese Customs noted that major Lebanese exports 
included prepared foodstuffs (15 percent) and jewelry (5 percent). 
(Note:  The GOL's purchase of fuel oil from the United States for 
electricity production, and the subsequent subsidizing of the 
electricity for consumers, is the biggest drag on the Lebanese 
national budget.  See paragraph 5.  End note.) 
 
LEBANON RANKS FIRST IN ARAB 
ECONOMIC FREEDOM SURVEY 
-------------------- 
 
8. (U) In the Canadian Fraser Institute's 2008 Economic Freedom in 
the Arab World report, Lebanon and Kuwait tied for the top spot in 
terms of economic freedom among 13 ranked Arab countries.  The 
report evaluates economies based on size of government (at the level 
of expenditure, taxes, and enterprises), commercial and economic law 
and security of property rights, access to sound money, freedom to 
trade internationally, and regulation of credit, labor and 
businesses. 
 
EIU: GDP GROWTH TO REACH 
3.1 PERCENT IN 2009 
-------------------- 
 
9. (U) In its most recent report on Lebanon, the Economist 
Intelligence Unit (EIU) forecasted GDP growth at 3.1 percent in 
2009, down from 4.2 percent estimated for 2008, mostly attributed to 
uncertainty associated with the upcoming parliamentary elections and 
spillovers from the global economic crisis.  Average consumer price 
inflation, which the EIU estimates at 12 percent in 2008, is 
expected to decline to six percent in 2009. 
 
SISON