Keep Us Strong WikiLeaks logo

Currently released so far... 97115 / 251,287

Articles

Browse latest releases

Browse by creation date

Browse by origin

A B C D F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W Y Z

Browse by tag

A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W X Y Z
ETRD EAGR ETTC EAID ECON EFIN ECIN EINV ELAB EAIR ENRG EPET EWWT ECPS EIND EMIN ELTN EC ETMIN EUC EZ ET ELECTIONS ENVR EU EUN EG EINT ER ECONOMICS ES EMS ENIV EEB EN ECE ECOSOC EK ENVIRONMENT EFIS EI EWT ENGRD ECPSN EXIM EIAD ERIN ECPC EDEV ENGY ECTRD EPA ESTH ECCT EINVECON ENGR ERTD EUR EAP EWWC ELTD EL EXIMOPIC EXTERNAL ETRDEC ESCAP ECO EGAD ELNT ECONOMIC ENV ETRN EIAR EUMEM ENRGPARMOTRASENVKGHGPGOVECONTSPLEAID EREL ECOM ECONETRDEAGRJA ETCC ETRG ECONOMY EMED ETR ENERG EITC EFINOECD EURM EENG ERA EXPORT ENRD ECONEINVETRDEFINELABETRDKTDBPGOVOPIC EGEN EBRD EVIN ETRAD ECOWAS EFTA ECONETRDBESPAR EGOVSY EPIN EID ECONENRG EDRC ESENV ETT EB ENER ELTNSNAR ECHEVARRIA ETRC EPIT EDUC ESA EFI ENRGY ESCI EE EAIDXMXAXBXFFR EETC ECIP EIAID EIVN EBEXP ESTN EING EGOV ETRA EPETEIND ELAN ETRDGK EAIDRW ETRDEINVECINPGOVCS EPEC ENVI ELN EAG EPCS EPRT EPTED ETRB EUM EAIDS EFIC EFINECONEAIDUNGAGM EAIDAR ESF EIDN ELAM EDU EV EAIDAF ECN EDA EXBS EINTECPS ENRGTRGYETRDBEXPBTIOSZ EPREL EAC EINVEFIN ETA EAGER EINDIR ECA ECLAC ELAP EITI EUCOM ECONEFINETRDPGOVEAGRPTERKTFNKCRMEAID EARG ELDIN EINVKSCA ENNP EFINECONCS EFINTS ECCP ETC EAIRASECCASCID EINN ETRP EAIDNI EFQ ECOQKPKO EGPHUM EBUD ECONEINVEFINPGOVIZ ENERGY ELB EINDETRD EMI ECONEFIN EIB EURN ETRDEINVTINTCS EIN EFIM ETIO ELAINE EMN EATO EWTR EIPR EINVETC ETTD ETDR EIQ ECONCS EPPD ENRGIZ EISL ESPINOSA ELEC EAIG ESLCO EUREM ENTG ERD EINVECONSENVCSJA EEPET EUNCH ECINECONCS ETRO ETRDECONWTOCS ECUN EFND EPECO EAIRECONRP ERGR ETRDPGOV ECPN ENRGMO EPWR EET EAIS EAGRE EDUARDO EAGRRP EAIDPHUMPRELUG EICN ECONQH EVN EGHG ELBR EINF EAIDHO EENV ETEX ERNG ED
KMDR KPAO KPKO KJUS KCRM KGHG KFRD KWMN KDEM KTFN KHIV KGIC KIDE KSCA KNNP KHUM KIPR KSUM KISL KIRF KCOR KRCM KPAL KWBG KN KS KOMC KSEP KFLU KPWR KTIA KSEO KMPI KHLS KICC KSTH KMCA KVPR KPRM KE KU KZ KFLO KSAF KTIP KTEX KBCT KOCI KOLY KOR KAWC KACT KUNR KTDB KSTC KLIG KSKN KNN KCFE KCIP KGHA KHDP KPOW KUNC KDRL KV KPREL KCRS KPOL KRVC KRIM KGIT KWIR KT KIRC KOMO KRFD KUWAIT KG KFIN KSCI KTFIN KFTN KGOV KPRV KSAC KGIV KCRIM KPIR KSOC KBIO KW KGLB KMWN KPO KFSC KSEAO KSTCPL KSI KPRP KREC KFPC KUNH KCSA KMRS KNDP KR KICCPUR KPPAO KCSY KTBT KCIS KNEP KFRDCVISCMGTCASCKOCIASECPHUMSMIGEG KNNB KGCC KINR KPOP KMFO KENV KNAR KVIR KDRG KDMR KFCE KNAO KDEN KGCN KICA KIMMITT KMCC KLFU KMSG KSEC KUM KCUL KMNP KSMT KCOM KOMCSG KSPR KPMI KRAD KIND KCRP KAUST KWAWC KTER KCHG KRDP KPAS KITA KTSC KPAOPREL KWGB KIRP KJUST KMIG KLAB KTFR KSEI KSTT KAPO KSTS KLSO KWNN KPOA KHSA KNPP KPAONZ KBTS KWWW KY KJRE KPAOKMDRKE KCRCM KSCS KWMNCI KESO KWUN KPLS KIIP KEDEM KPAOY KRIF KGICKS KREF KTRD KFRDSOCIRO KTAO KJU KWMNPHUMPRELKPAOZW KEN KO KNEI KEMR KKIV KEAI KWAC KRCIM KWCI KFIU KWIC KCORR KOMS KNNO KPAI KBWG KTTB KTBD KTIALG KILS KFEM KTDM KESS KNUC KPA KOMCCO KCEM KRCS KWBGSY KNPPIS KNNPMNUC KWN KERG KLTN KALM KCCP KSUMPHUM KREL KGH KLIP KTLA KAWK KWMM KVRP KVRC KAID KSLG KDEMK KX KIF KNPR KCFC KFTFN KTFM KPDD KCERS KMOC KDEMAF KMEPI KEMS KDRM KEPREL KBTR KEDU KNP KIRL KNNR KMPT KISLPINR KTPN KA KJUSTH KPIN KDEV KTDD KAKA KFRP KWNM KTSD KINL KJUSKUNR KWWMN KECF KWBC KPRO KVBL KOM KFRDKIRFCVISCMGTKOCIASECPHUMSMIGEG KEDM KFLD KLPM KRGY KNNF KICR KIFR KM KWMNCS KAWS KLAP KPAK KDDG KCGC KID KNSD KMPF KPFO KDP KCMR KRMS KNPT KNNNP KTIAPARM KDTB KNUP KPGOV KNAP KNNC KUK KSRE KREISLER KIVP KQ KTIAEUN KPALAOIS KRM KISLAO KWM KFLOA
PHUM PINR PTER PGOV PREL PREF PL PM PHSA PE PARM PINS PK PUNE PO PALESTINIAN PU PBTS PROP PTBS POL POLI PA PGOVZI POLMIL POLITICAL PARTIES POLM PD POLITICS POLICY PAS PMIL PINT PNAT PV PKO PPOL PERSONS PING PBIO PH PETR PARMS PRES PCON PETERS PRELBR PT PLAB PP PAK PDEM PKPA PSOCI PF PLO PTERM PJUS PSOE PELOSI PROPERTY PGOVPREL PARP PRL PNIR PHUMKPAL PG PREZ PGIC PBOV PAO PKK PROV PHSAK PHUMPREL PROTECTION PGOVBL PSI PRELPK PGOVENRG PUM PRELKPKO PATTY PSOC PRIVATIZATION PRELSP PGOVEAIDUKNOSWGMHUCANLLHFRSPITNZ PMIG PREC PAIGH PROG PSHA PARK PETER POG PHUS PPREL PS PTERPREL PRELPGOV POV PKPO PGOVECON POUS PGOVPRELPHUMPREFSMIGELABEAIDKCRMKWMN PWBG PMAR PREM PAR PNR PRELPGOVEAIDECONEINVBEXPSCULOIIPBTIO PARMIR PGOVGM PHUH PARTM PN PRE PTE PY POLUN PPEL PDOV PGOVSOCI PIRF PGOVPM PBST PRELEVU PGOR PBTSRU PRM PRELKPAOIZ PGVO PERL PGOC PAGR PMIN PHUMR PVIP PPD PGV PRAM PINL PKPAL PTERE PGOF PINO PHAS PODC PRHUM PHUMA PREO PPA PEPFAR PGO PRGOV PAC PRESL PORG PKFK PEPR PRELP PREFA PNG PGOVPHUMKPAO PRELECON PINOCHET PFOR PGOVLO PHUMBA PRELC PREK PHUME PHJM POLINT PGOVPZ PGOVKCRM PGOVE PHALANAGE PARTY PECON PEACE PROCESS PLN PRELSW PAHO PEDRO PRELA PASS PPAO PGPV PNUM PCUL PGGV PSA PGOVSMIGKCRMKWMNPHUMCVISKFRDCA PGIV PRFE POGOV PEL PBT PAMQ PINF PSEPC POSTS PHUMPGOV PVOV PHSAPREL PROLIFERATION PENA PRELTBIOBA PIN PRELL PGOVPTER PHAM PHYTRP PTEL PTERPGOV PHARM PROTESTS PRELAF PKBL PRELKPAO PKNP PARMP PHUML PFOV PERM PUOS PRELGOV PHUMPTER PARAGRAPH PERURENA PBTSEWWT PCI PETROL PINSO PINSCE PQL PEREZ PBS

Browse by classification

Community resources

courage is contagious

Viewing cable 08BEIJING4407, CHINA BRACING FOR DECLINING EMPLOYMENT IN EXPORT SECTOR

If you are new to these pages, please read an introduction on the structure of a cable as well as how to discuss them with others. See also the FAQs

Understanding cables
Every cable message consists of three parts:
  • The top box shows each cables unique reference number, when and by whom it originally was sent, and what its initial classification was.
  • The middle box contains the header information that is associated with the cable. It includes information about the receiver(s) as well as a general subject.
  • The bottom box presents the body of the cable. The opening can contain a more specific subject, references to other cables (browse by origin to find them) or additional comment. This is followed by the main contents of the cable: a summary, a collection of specific topics and a comment section.
To understand the justification used for the classification of each cable, please use this WikiSource article as reference.

Discussing cables
If you find meaningful or important information in a cable, please link directly to its unique reference number. Linking to a specific paragraph in the body of a cable is also possible by copying the appropriate link (to be found at theparagraph symbol). Please mark messages for social networking services like Twitter with the hash tags #cablegate and a hash containing the reference ID e.g. #08BEIJING4407.
Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
08BEIJING4407 2008-12-02 09:42 2011-08-23 00:00 UNCLASSIFIED Embassy Beijing
P 020942Z DEC 08
FM AMEMBASSY BEIJING
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 1177
DEPT OF LABOR WASHDC
INFO CHINA POSTS COLLECTIVE
DEPT OF TREASURY WASHDC
USDOC WASHDC
LABOR COLLECTIVE
UNCLAS BEIJING 004407 
 
 
DEPT PASS USTR FOR KARESH, BUFFO, STRATFORD, LEE 
LABOR FOR ILAB AND OSEC 
TREAS FOR OASIA/ISA-CUSHMAN 
USDOC FOR 4420/ITA/MAC/MCQUEEN AND DAS KASOFF 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: ECON EFIN ELAB CH
SUBJECT: CHINA BRACING FOR DECLINING EMPLOYMENT IN EXPORT SECTOR 
 
1.  (SBU)  SUMMARY:  China?s Ministry of Human Resources and 
Social Security (MOHRSS) has announced that China does not yet 
face a ?wave of layoffs? as a result of the global financial 
crisis, but that a ?grim employment situation? could develop in 
2009.   Labor Economist Wang Dewen told Laboff that MOHRSS may be 
preparing the public for a notable rise in unemployment and said 
the government is responding quickly and responsibly to the threat. 
 
Given the Chinese economy?s dependence on exports, Wang said the 
degree of job loss will depend on the length and depth of economic 
recession in China?s export markets.  While China may face a near- 
term rise in unemployment, Wang believes Chinese demographics will 
ultimately lead to a relative labor shortage, which will further 
erode the competitiveness of China?s labor-intensive export 
industries.  END SUMMARY. 
 
2.  (U)  The Chinese and foreign press have recently been rife 
with anecdotal reports of closing factories and lay offs.  To 
address this issue, the Chinese Ministry of Human Resources and 
Social Security (MOHRSS) just concluded a month-long 11 province 
survey of employment conditions, and stated that there has been a 
minor, recent increase in unemployment.  While MOHRSS announced 
that there is no ?wave of layoffs? it did warn that a ?grim 
employment situation? may develop over the next few months. 
MOHRSS has not publicized detailed findings from its survey, and 
existing unemployment statistics do not capture the migrant 
workers in the export-sector who would be most affected by the 
downturn.  For more perspective on impact of the global financial 
crisis on Chinese employment, Laboff met with Professor Wang Dewen 
at the China Institute of Social Science?s Institute of Population 
and Labor Economics on November 24. 
 
3.  (SBU)  Wang said his Institute recently conducted some small 
scale employment surveys of its own and found a large number of 
factory closings (up to 20 percent of employers in some export- 
intensive regions) and a larger than usual end of year decline in 
manufacturing employment.  (Note: Wang did not provide information 
on the number of factory openings, the relative scale of the 
closed factories, or compare the number of closings this year to 
previous years.  End note.)  He said it was impossible to 
extrapolate an unemployment rate from such an unscientific study, 
but that he believed estimates from the governments of some 
migrant worker-sending provinces, which reported that 4-5% of 
migrant workers have returned home in the fourth quarter of 2008, 
understate the degree of job loss.  He noted that a CASS household 
survey of export-manufacturing regions in healthy economic times 
(2005) found an unemployment rate of 5-6% percent.  Wang told 
Laboff that he believes MOHRSS, as a result of its recent survey, 
has a much clearer picture of rising unemployment than it has made 
public, and that the Ministry is getting the public used to the 
idea through its warnings about the coming months. 
 
4.  (SBU)  Wang said the government is acting quickly and 
responsibility to deal with the threat of rising unemployment. 
MOHRSS has announced a number of measures at the central and local 
government level to maintain stability in employment.  These 
include measures to keep export-oriented manufacturers in business, 
 
such as reinstating certain tax rebates, suspending planned 
increases in minimum wages, and providing subsidies to offset 
employers? social insurance contributions for workers.  Some 
provincial labor departments have also issued new regulations, 
requiring employers to notify the government in advance of planned 
lay-offs, and have hinted at allowing employers to lower wages 
rather than let workers go.  Government measures aimed directly at 
the labor force include job placement, vocational training and 
small loans to migrant workers in their home provinces, and public 
investment to stimulate economic activity and promote consumption. 
 
However, Wang believes these measures could take several years to 
have a meaningful impact.  China?s economy is highly dependent on 
exports, he said, and whether or not China can forestall serious 
job loss will depend on the length and depth of recession in 
China?s export markets. 
 
5.  (SBU)  Wang noted that factory closings in China?s coastal 
exporting regions actually began well before the financial crisis, 
primarily because of the appreciation of the Chinese currency and 
rising energy costs.  However, Wang said employers report a 
notable drop in orders from international buyers following the 
financial crisis, and this has accelerated the decline.  Wang does 
not believe that now-falling energy prices will be enough to 
reverse the trend.  Wang said China needs to restructure its 
economy to increase consumption and reduce dependence on exports. 
While the financial crisis may bring about a near-term increase in 
unemployment, Wang said he believes that demographic changes will 
inevitably result in labor shortages, which will erode the export 
competitiveness of China?s labor-intensive industries further. 
 
6.  (U)  Embassy has requested a meeting with MOHRSS experts to 
discuss current trends in unemployment and the findings of the 11 
province survey. 
 
 
RANDT