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Viewing cable 08TOKYO3083, DAILY SUMMARY OF JAPANESE PRESS 11/05/08

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
08TOKYO3083 2008-11-05 08:10 2011-08-25 00:00 UNCLASSIFIED Embassy Tokyo
VZCZCXRO3361
PP RUEHFK RUEHKSO RUEHNAG RUEHNH
DE RUEHKO #3083/01 3100810
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 050810Z NOV 08
FM AMEMBASSY TOKYO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 8560
INFO RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC PRIORITY
RHEHAAA/THE WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RUEAWJA/USDOJ WASHDC PRIORITY
RULSDMK/USDOT WASHDC PRIORITY
RUCPDOC/USDOC WASHDC PRIORITY
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC PRIORITY
RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHDC//J5//
RHHMUNA/HQ USPACOM HONOLULU HI
RHHMHBA/COMPACFLT PEARL HARBOR HI
RHMFIUU/HQ PACAF HICKAM AFB HI//CC/PA//
RHMFIUU/USFJ //J5/JO21//
RUYNAAC/COMNAVFORJAPAN YOKOSUKA JA
RUAYJAA/CTF 72
RUEHNH/AMCONSUL NAHA 3146
RUEHFK/AMCONSUL FUKUOKA 0783
RUEHOK/AMCONSUL OSAKA KOBE 4568
RUEHNAG/AMCONSUL NAGOYA 8839
RUEHKSO/AMCONSUL SAPPORO 1357
RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING 6216
RUEHUL/AMEMBASSY SEOUL 2203
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 2409
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 10 TOKYO 003083 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR E, P, EB, EAP/J, EAP/P, EAP/PD, PA; 
WHITE HOUSE/NSC/NEC; JUSTICE FOR STU CHEMTOB IN ANTI-TRUST DIVISION; 
TREASURY/OASIA/IMI/JAPAN; DEPT PASS USTR/PUBLIC AFFAIRS OFFICE; 
SECDEF FOR JCS-J-5/JAPAN, 
DASD/ISA/EAPR/JAPAN; DEPT PASS ELECTRONICALLY TO USDA 
FAS/ITP FOR SCHROETER; PACOM HONOLULU FOR PUBLIC DIPLOMACY ADVISOR; 
CINCPAC FLT/PA/ COMNAVFORJAPAN/PA. 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: OIIP KMDR KPAO PGOV PINR ECON ELAB JA
 
SUBJECT:  DAILY SUMMARY OF JAPANESE PRESS 11/05/08 
 
INDEX: 
 
(1) Japanese government hurriedly preparing position toward the 
Obama administration; May be gap in policy toward North Korea 
(Sankei) 
 
(2) U.S. Embassy in Japan hosts Presidential Election Open House, 
including mock election (Mainichi) 
 
(3) Stormy developments expected at Diet; DPJ to press government 
for presentation of second supplementary budget (Asahi) 
 
(4) Defense plan to focus on warning satellites (Sankei) 
 
(6) SOFA again blocks accident investigation (Mainichi) 
 
(7) Local assemblies file protests against U.S. military aircraft 
crash (Okinawa Times) 
 
(8) Prices of imported energy drop sharply: Crude oil prices fall 50 
PERCENT  from high; Natural gas, coal prices down 40 PERCENT 
(Nikkei) 
 
(9) Eyes of reporter: Japan should make its presence felt in UN 
(Tokyo Shimbun) 
 
ARTICLES: 
 
(1) Japanese government hurriedly preparing position toward the 
Obama administration; May be gap in policy toward North Korea 
 
SANKEI (Internet edition) 
November 5, 2008 
 
With the approaching declaration of victory of Democratic Party 
candidate Obama in the U.S. presidential election, the Japanese 
government now plans to quickly prepare its position toward 
President-elect Obama and his administration. 
 
Chief Cabinet Secretary Takeo Kawamura at a press conference this 
morning said: "Even with a change (in the U.S. administration) to 
the Democratic Party, Japan-U.S. relations will not waver at all. 
There is nothing to worry about since the bilateral relationship has 
been built up over many changes of administrations." 
 
The Japanese government has calmly taken the trend toward victory of 
Senator Obama, having factored into its thinking the prospects of 
"President-elect Obama" from the final stages of the presidential 
election. 
 
Prime Minister Taro Aso last evening stressed to the press corps, 
"Strengthening the foundation of the Japan-U.S. relationship is 
basic, no matter what party it may be (Republican or Democratic)." 
Regarding the challenges for bilateral ties following the Bush 
administration, he said: "There are many, including economic and 
financial affairs, and security of the Pacific. Basically, the 
Japan-U.S. relationship will operate properly as it has until now." 
 
According to a government source, the Prime Minister is planning to 
coordinate a telephone call to Senator Obama as soon as the results 
of the election are final. In addition, he is asking the Obama camp 
to bring about a direct meeting at the time of the emergency summit 
 
TOKYO 00003083  002 OF 010 
 
 
on the financial crisis that will be held in Washington on the 15th. 
According to an aide, the Prime Minister "has set a policy course of 
strengthening the bilateral alliance early on. He wants the 
relationship to get back on track even before the formal launching 
of the Obama presidency in January." 
 
Although the Japanese government does not have as many channels to 
the Democratic Party as it does to the Republican Party, according 
to a diplomatic source connected with U.S.-Japan relations, "Obama 
is fortunate to have influential advisors on Japan policy." Former 
ambassadors to Japan Mondale and Foley are honorary chairs of a 
group of Japan policy advisors to Obama set up in September. Since 
this summer, Japan's Foreign Ministry, too, has put in extra efforts 
to set up contacts with the Obama camp. 
 
However, Senator Obama himself during the campaign hardly mentioned 
specifics about his policy toward Japan, and it is a fact that in 
his Asia policy, there is more of an emphasis on China than there is 
in the Bush administration. On North Korea issues, as well, Obama 
has evaluated the decision by President Bush to remove that country 
from the list of states sponsoring terrorism as "a step forward." He 
has never spelled it out how he would deal with Japan's abduction 
issue. 
 
For that reason, inside the government, there are those who advocate 
strengthening links with Europe and China, for example, on the North 
Korea problem. 
 
(2) U.S. Embassy in Japan hosts Presidential Election Open House, 
including mock election 
 
MAINICHI ONLINE (Full) 
12:44, November 5, 2008 
 
By Takeshi Yamashina 
 
The U.S. Embassy in Japan (Akasaka, Minato Ward, Tokyo) hosted what 
it has called the "2008 Presidential Election Open House" this 
morning timed with vote-counting in the continental United States, 
including such events as a mock election to allow guests to enjoy 
voting American-style . Some 900 guests concerned with Japan-U.S. 
relations, including college students, took part in the open house. 
 
Deputy Chief of Mission James Zumwalt said in a speech: "For 
Americans, the presidential election is a day to celebrate 
democracy, and many families throw parties, as well. Please enjoy 
the atmosphere." The embassy especially wanted students, who will 
bear responsibility for Japan-U.S. relations in the future, to 
join. 
 
Ballots and a ballot box were set up in the Embassy auditorium, 
which was decorated with blue and red balloons like an election 
campaign office. Takafumi Niimura, 22, a junior at Nihon University, 
said: "It is more festive than Japanese elections, and it's like a 
popularity poll for entertainers. I like it because it's less 
rigid." 
 
(3) Stormy developments expected at Diet; DPJ to press government 
for presentation of second supplementary budget 
 
ASAHI (Page 4) (Abridged) 
November 5, 2008 
 
TOKYO 00003083  003 OF 010 
 
 
 
Now that Prime Minister Taro Aso has pushed back the dissolution of 
the Lower House, the course of the second half of the current Diet 
session has become murky. With the major opposition Democratic Party 
of Japan taking an aggressive stance, there are no prospects for 
bills amending the Financial Function Strengthening Law and the 
refueling support law to clear the Diet. When the government will be 
able to submit a second supplementary budget also remains unknown. 
The focus is now on whether the government will extend the Diet 
session beyond the end of November in order to get important bills 
enacted (by Lower House override votes). 
 
DPJ President Ichiro Ozawa yesterday ordered an executive meeting to 
shift back to a confrontational mode in dealing the ruling bloc in 
the Diet while preparing for the next Lower House election, which he 
thinks will come in the not too distant future. 
 
The DPJ is first expected to urge the government to introduce a 
second supplementary budget bill to the Diet in the current session. 
The DPJ thinks the government will not be able to present a second 
budget because revenue sources are uncertain. If the government 
fails to present a budget bill, the DPJ plans to thoroughly discuss 
bills amending the Financial Function Strengthening Law and the 
refueling support law in the Upper House until the current Diet 
session ends in late November. The largest opposition party also 
thinks that would force the government and the ruling coalition to 
consider extending the Diet session and submitting a second budget. 
 
The DPJ has plenty of ammunition. The DPJ had insisted on revising 
six items in the Financial Function Strengthening Law revision bill, 
but LDP Diet Affairs Committee Chairman Tadamori Oshima informed his 
DPJ counterpart Kenji Yamaoka of a plan to take a committee vote on 
Nov. 5 without setting the stage for revision talks. As a result, 
deliberations would be carried out thoroughly in the Upper House for 
revising the bill. 
 
The DPJ does not hold a majority in the Upper House. Given the 
situation, the Diet affairs chiefs of four opposition parties met 
yesterday and confirmed a policy course to take coordinated actions. 
There is a possibility that persons connected with the Norinchukin 
Bank or the Shinginko Tokyo will be summoned to the Diet to give 
testimony in line with the DPJ's strong call. 
 
When it comes to the refueling support legislation, there are no 
prospects even for a vote. DPJ Upper House Caucus Secretary General 
Kenji Hirata in a press conference yesterday indicated that his 
party would pursue the government's responsibility for appointing 
Toshio Tamogami to the Air Self-Defense Force chief of staff knowing 
that he had written a similar essay before. 
 
On Nov. 5, an additional report is slated to follow the government 
Afghanistan fact-finding team's report that simply listed some 
items. If the DPJ decides that is still insufficient, the party 
plans to decide to invoke the right of Diet members to investigate 
state affairs. The protraction of deliberations is unavoidable. 
 
The current Diet session closed on Nov. 30. Diet affairs officers of 
the two ruling parties truly want to enact the bills amending the 
Financial Function Strengthening Law and the refueling law by the 
end of November so that the prime minister will not be forced to 
dissolve the Lower House at the end of the year. 
 
 
TOKYO 00003083  004 OF 010 
 
 
Following the prime minister's decision to push back the dissolution 
of the Lower House, the ruling parties' principal directors of all 
committees met yesterday to revamp the scenario of getting bills 
enacted. As a result, they decided to focus only on bills that are 
likely to win the opposition bloc's concurrence, such as the bill 
amending the Swords and Firearms Control Law. 
 
How to handle a bill establishing the consumer agency remains 
undecided due to a lack of prospects for finding common grounds with 
the DPJ. The ruling bloc also decided to forgo deliberations on a 
bill making corporate health insurance societies take over the 
government's contribution to the government-managed health insurance 
programs due to the DPJ's strong opposition. 
 
The focus is on the handling of a second supplementary budget 
incorporating comprehensive economic stimulus measures. A draft 
budget will be put together in late November, at the earliest. If 
the Diet begins deliberations on the second supplementary budget 
after extending the session, the compilation of a fiscal 2009 budget 
might be delayed as it might overlap with the supplementary budget. 
 
Prospects for major bills submitted to the current session to get 
enacted 
 
A bill amending the refueling law ? 
A bill amending the Financial Function Strengthening Law ? 
A bill amending the Swords and Firearms Control Law ? 
A bill amending the Citizenship Law ? 
A bill amending the Child Welfare Law ? 
A bill establishing the consumer agency ? 
A bill making corporate health insurance societies take over the 
government's contribution to government-managed health insurance 
programs. 
 
Note: ? denotes the government's and the ruling coalition's 
determination to enact at all costs; ? indicates their intention to 
aim at enactment; ? signifies uncertainty; and W denoted that they 
gave up enactment. 
 
(4) Defense plan to focus on warning satellites 
 
SANKEI (Page 2) (Abridged) 
November 5, 2008 
 
The government is planning to revise the National Defense Program 
Guidelines, or NDPG for short, to determine a basic course of action 
for Japan's defense buildup. Ahead of its revision, the government 
decided yesterday to set up an advisory panel for the prime minister 
in December, moving up the original date. In its new version, the 
NDPG is expected to focus on establishing a general command to 
control the Ground Self-Defense Force's five district armies and 
introducing early warning satellites for Japan's homeland defense. 
The NDPG, formulated in 2004, is to be reviewed every five years. 
The advisory panel is expected to come up with a report before next 
summer. Based on its report, the government will make a cabinet 
decision in late 2009. 
 
The GSDF is currently made up of five district armies across the 
nation. Along with a review of the NDPG, the government wants to 
establish a general command that is to control the five GSDF armies. 
Meanwhile, another advisory panel, which was set up at the prime 
minister's office to reform the Defense Ministry, has recommended 
 
TOKYO 00003083  005 OF 010 
 
 
the GSDF to streamline its intermediate headquarters. If the general 
command is to be established, the new advisory panel will likely 
have to discuss the advisability of abolishing or downsizing each 
GSDF district army and slashing the GSDF's manpower. 
 
This August, the Space Law-which has lifted Japan's self-imposed ban 
on its use of outer space for defense purposes-came into effect. In 
response, the new advisory panel will also focus on the advisability 
of introducing early warning satellites for missile defense (MD) and 
possessing reconnaissance satellites. Meanwhile, the Defense 
Ministry and the SDF are reluctant about substantial reductions in 
the SDF's manpower and hardware. Given this, there is also a plan 
being floated for the prime minister's office to set numerical 
targets for Japan's defense buildup in an annex to the NDGP's new 
version, instead of the Defense Ministry and the SDF. 
 
(5) SOFA again blocks accident investigation 
 
MAINICHI (Page 3) (Full) 
November 4, 2008 
 
Teruhisa Mimori, Katsumi Kawakami 
 
A leisure-purpose four-seater light aircraft (Cessna-172) of the 
U.S. Air Force recently crashed into flames in a sugarcane field in 
Nago City, Okinawa Prefecture. Local people in the island 
prefecture, again angered and dissatisfied, calling for revising the 
Japan-U.S. Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA). That is because the 
U.S. military rejected Okinawa prefectural police's request to seize 
the crashed aircraft and has brought it back to its base. Whenever 
there was an incident or accident involving U.S. military personnel, 
Japan and the United States always made makeshift improvements in 
their SOFA implementation. The Japanese government will likely face 
even more difficulties since it would not try to revise the SOFA 
while remaining within the framework of Japan-U.S. security 
arrangements to blindly follow the United States. 
 
"It's strange to constrain police investigations under the SOFA. 
Also, I cannot understand why they have taken the aircraft away." So 
saying, Okinawa Gov. Hirokazu Nakaima voiced a strong feeling of 
dissatisfaction when he met the press on Oct. 31. A leisure-purpose 
aircraft should have no secrets. Even in the case of its accident, 
police investigations are affected by what is on the U.S. military's 
mind. The governor therefore expressed his displeasure. He has plans 
to visit the United States next spring. He indicated that he would 
call again for the United States on that occasion to revise SOFA 
provisions. 
 
The accident took place on Oct. 24. Four Kadena-based U.S. 
servicemen, who love to fly, were onboard the light aircraft. This 
aircraft took off from Amami Airport on the island of Amami Oshima 
in Kagoshima Prefecture and crashed into a sugarcane field. Two of 
them were injured either seriously or slightly. Shortly after the 
accident, a 28-year-old airman, one of the four, told local police 
that their flight was for "leisure" purposes. The SOFA stipulates 
that Japan has primary jurisdiction over off-duty and off-base 
accidents. Experts also say Japan has the first right to 
investigate. 
 
What became a barrier to local police investigations was a 
SOFA-annexed record of agreements reached in consultations between 
the Japanese and U.S. governments. It stipulates that Japan, as long 
 
TOKYO 00003083  006 OF 010 
 
 
as there is no consent from the United States, waives its right to 
investigate, verify, and seize U.S. military property. Based on this 
stipulation, the U.S. military claimed the crashed aircraft to be 
its property and took it back with no account. 
 
The SOFA annex also has a description of Japan's special law 
concerning criminal investigations. This domestic law was 
promulgated in 1952 when Japan was under the occupation of U.S. 
forces. Japan's investigative authority, though not restricted under 
the SOFA, is constrained under the special law. This law requires 
Japan to ask for the U.S. military's consent when investigating U.S. 
military property. This SOFA annex is a de facto barrier that blocks 
Japan's right to investigate. "It's a leisure-purpose aircraft, so 
we expected to investigate..." So saying, a senior official of the 
prefectural police bit his lip. 
 
Questioning the crashed aircraft's crew is also up to the U.S. 
military. When the accident occurred, the four U.S. servicemen 
onboard the crashed aircraft refused a local police interview, 
maintaining that they need their officer's permission. Time and 
again, the prefectural police asked for requestioning the crew. 
However, it was not until the evening of Oct. 29, five days after 
the accident, that the U.S. military allowed the local police to 
question the pilot at a US. naval hospital. 
 
Okinawa's prefectural and municipal assemblies were also upset. On 
Oct. 27, the prefectural assembly's special committee on U.S. 
military bases met. In the meeting, committee members from the 
ruling Liberal Democratic Party, which is in a position to uphold 
the bilateral security alliance, expressed their dissatisfaction, 
claiming that the U.S. military expands its interpretation of the 
SOFA. The Defense Ministry's Okinawa Defense Bureau and the Foreign 
Ministry's Okinawa Liaison Office also faced protests from the 
ruling and opposition parties' local chapters and various local 
organizations. The municipal assemblies of Nago City and Kadena Town 
have passed protest resolutions. 
 
Gov't hesitant to revise SOFA 
 
The accident this time is another example of showing how awkward the 
SOFA is. However, both the Japanese and U.S. governments are 
reluctant about any revisions that may expressly stipulate Japan's 
right to investigate. This time as well, the two governments will 
try to soften the local backlash with improvements in the SOFA's 
implementation and will wait for things to calm down. There is no 
change in such a practice of using cheap tricks. 
 
"In the past as well, there were problems. But we resolved and 
handled them with improvements in the SOFA's implementation. Local 
residents may think the SOFA should be revised. In point of fact, 
however, we have done things well (with the SOFA's improved 
implementation)." With this, Foreign Minister Hirofumi Nakasone 
stressed his view when he met the press on Oct. 31. 
 
In the 1995 incident of three Okinawa-based U.S. servicemen's 
schoolgirl rape in Okinawa, however, Okinawa's population cried out 
for SOFA revisions. At that time, the Japanese and U.S. governments 
settled the incident with ambiguous improvements in their SOFA 
implementation, with the United States giving "sympathetic 
consideration" for its pre-indictment handover of suspects in the 
case of serious crimes only. In August 2004, a U.S. military 
helicopter crashed into the campus of Okinawa International 
 
TOKYO 00003083  007 OF 010 
 
 
University. At that time, the U.S. military, based on the SOFA, 
rejected a request from local police for an on-the-spot inspection 
of the crashed chopper at the scene of the accident, and this became 
a problem. In April 2005, the two governments reached a settlement 
on creating guidelines for how far Japanese investigative 
authorities will be allowed to take part in on-site security should 
such accidents occur. The two governments agreed to continue 
negotiations over expanding Japan's investigative authority in an 
aim to hold down a public backlash. However, this matter is still up 
in the air. 
 
Expanding the scope of Japan's investigative authority, however, 
could incur repulsion from U.S. military personnel who want U.S. 
interrogations. In addition, the United States has a SOFA pact with 
foreign countries where U.S. troops are stationed. Under this pact, 
the United States turns over its military suspects to the 
investigative authorities of host countries after they are indicted 
by their prosecutors. Revising the SOFA with Japan could have 
repercussions on its SOFA pacts with other countries. "Both the 
Japanese and U.S. governments do not want to touch this matter," 
said a senior official of the Foreign Ministry. 
 
(7) Local assemblies file protests against U.S. military aircraft 
crash 
 
OKINAWA TIMES (Page 27) (Full) 
November 5, 2008 
 
In the wake of the recent crash of a U.S. military light aircraft in 
Nago City, representatives from Kadena Town's assembly and Chatan 
Town's assembly visited the U.S. Kadena Air Base yesterday, where 
they filed a protest against the accident. They called for the U.S. 
military to disclose the cause of the accident, move such light 
aircraft from the Kadena base, and pay damages to victims. 
 
They also visited the Defense Ministry's Okinawa Defense Bureau. 
Toshiaki Okahisa, director general of the Management Department 
Director of the bureau, met the local assembly representatives, 
including Chatan Town Assembly Speaker Tomotsune Miyazato. Okahisa 
told them, "The (Kadena) Aero Club is a social welfare facility, and 
the sympathy budget is used for that. There are various items, so 
let us check." 
 
According to Miyazato, Lt. Col. Barbara Carson (TN: phonetic), a 
Kadena base public affairs officer, answered: "I can't tell anything 
about financial support from Japan unless we check it. Users pay 
flight charges." 
 
According to Kadena Town Speaker Masayoshi Irei, the public affairs 
officer said the U.S. military has been looking into the cause of 
the accident and would disclose matters later. The officer only said 
the request to move the club elsewhere would be reported to the base 
leadership. 
 
Concerning the claim for compensation, the base officer indicated 
that the U.S. government would pay damages in the end. However, the 
officer did not specify when, according to Irei. 
 
(8) Prices of imported energy drop sharply: Crude oil prices fall 50 
PERCENT  from high; Natural gas, coal prices down 40 PERCENT 
 
NIKKEI (Top Play) (Full) 
 
TOKYO 00003083  008 OF 010 
 
 
November 5, 2008 
 
Import prices of energy resources have significantly dropped across 
the board. The price of crude oil imported via direct-deal (DD) 
contracts from Saudi Arabia and other oil producing countries hit 
69.9 dollars per barrel in October, falling 49 PERCENT  from the 
high recorded in July. The prices of natural gas and coal have also 
fallen 40 PERCENT -50 PERCENT , compared with the peak period. 
Following the depressed demand for energy due to the slowdown in the 
global economy in the wake of the financial crisis, the 
international prices of energy resources have declined. This is 
because the fall in demand has affected procurement prices. Gasoline 
and electric power prices are also expected to fall, fuelled by the 
strong yen and the weak dollar. The benefits of dropping prices will 
likely be increasingly passed along to consumers. 
 
It was learned on the 4th that the prices of DD crude oil shipped in 
October fell 30 PERCENT , compared with shipments in September. DD 
crude oil accounts for 80 PERCENT  of crude oil Japan imports. 
Nippon Oil Corporation, Idemitsu Kosan, etc., imports DD crude oil, 
based on long-term contracts. A record decline in crude oil prices 
has pushed prices below the level of summer 2007, prior to the time 
when prices started soaring. This is because demand for crude oil 
has begun slackening throughout the world. There is reportedly an 
excess-supply of 2 million barrel a day. 
 
Other energy resource prices have slumped in the wake of nose-diving 
crude. Liquefied natural gas (LNG) prices for discretionary 
contracts have markedly declined. LNG from the Middle East has 
slumped to 12-14 dollars for 1 million BTUs (British thermal 
unites), shedding 38 PERCENT  from the record highs of February. 
Australian coal price have dropped 43 PERCENT  since July. 
 
The fall in energy prices is beginning to be reflected in the price 
of end products. Showa Shell Sekiyu KK has, for instance, lowered 
the wholesale price of November retail gas shipments 16 yen per 
liter from the previous month. Regular gas at the gas stations cost 
151.3 yen per liter at the end of last month. There is now a strong 
possibility of prices falling below 150 yen per liter for the first 
time since last November. 
 
The likelihood is strong that electricity rates will be lowered 
after April next year. TEPCO will raise rates for the January-March 
quarter by 409 yen per month to about 7,200 yen. Current crude 
prices will be priced into electricity rates for the April-June 
quarter of 2009. The present estimate for that quarter, based on 105 
against the dollar and 100 dollars per barrel, stands at about 7,500 
yen. However, there is a possibility of the rate could take a 
downward turn, compared with the level of the January-March 
quarter. 
 
There is also a likelihood that fuel surcharges added to airfares 
will drop again in April, following January next year. JAL and ANA 
fuel surcharges for a round trip to Europe are now 66,000 yen. It 
will likely drop to less than 44,000 yen in January next year, when 
fuel prices in the August-October period are reflected in market 
prices. Chances are that such charges could drop even to 23,000 yen. 
 
 
Declining energy prices will have a positive impact on the economy 
as well. According to the NLI Research Institute, trading losses -- 
the amount of domestic income that has effectively flowed out of the 
 
TOKYO 00003083  009 OF 010 
 
 
country due to rising import prices -- came to 31.9 trillion yen for 
the July-September quarter. The figure is likely to shrink in the 
October-December quarter when current prices are reflected. The 
decline in the outflow of income will likely shore up domestic 
spending. A significant decline in energy prices, which have been 
the major factor for price rises, could serve as a deflationary 
factor. 
 
(9) Eyes of reporter: Japan should make its presence felt in UN 
 
TOKYO SHIMBUN (Page 6) (Full) 
November 3, 2008 
 
Japan will become a nonpermanent member of the United Nations 
Security Council (UNSC) in January 2009, when a debate on reform of 
the UNSC will move into full swing. The government is enthusiastic 
about becoming a nonpermanent UNSC member as a chance for Japan's 
bid for a permanent UNSC seat. However, a rocky path still lies 
ahead for Japan's quest for a UNSC seat. Japan should make its 
presence in the UNSC, not always following the U.S. policy lead. 
 
If a situation that threatens world security comes up, the UNSC will 
decide on diplomatic, economic and military measures to resolve the 
situation. The UNSC is composed of five permanent members -- the 
United States, Russia, the United Kingdom, France and China -- and 
ten nonpermanent members, which are elected by the General 
Assembly. 
 
The terms of ten nonpermanent members are two years. A half of the 
ten members are reelected every year. The ten members are selected 
by region. To become a nonpermanent member, approval of more than 
two-thirds of the 192 UN members is required. In the Oct. 17 
election, Japan and Iran contested for the Asia seat, with Japan 
winning by a landslide. Japan garnered 158 votes, while Iran secured 
ΒΆ32. Japan will be serving a 10th term, which is the largest number 
among the UN members. 
 
It is believed that the UNSC members have a number of advantages in 
collecting information. When North Korea fired missiles in 2006, the 
UNSC adopted a resolution criticizing the North under the initiative 
of Japan, which was then a nonpermanent member. 
 
It has been decided government-to-government talks on UNSC reform 
will start by the end of February in 2009. Foreign Minister Hirofumi 
Nakasone said enthusiastically: "Japan aims at an early 
implementation of UNSC reform, including its bid for a permanent 
UNSC seat, while fulfilling its role as a nonpermanent UNSC member. 
 
 
However, a bid for a permanent UNSC seat is a hard work. 
 
Although Japan, Germany, India and Brazil jointly aimed for 
permanent UNSC membership in 2005, the four countries' efforts 
unavoidably hit a roadblock because the African Union withdrew its 
once-promised support. 
 
It was said that China's opposition and discord in African countries 
were reasons for Japan failing to secure a permanent UNSC seat. But 
it is also said that African countries had a distrust of Japan that 
Tokyo would not side with developing countries and that the United 
States alone would gain benefits if Japan became a permanent UNSC 
member. 
 
TOKYO 00003083  010 OF 010 
 
 
 
In order to sweep away such distrust, Japan should accumulate 
international contributions that can be done by Japan alone, not 
trying to gauge the United States' feelings. Japan should actively 
work in such areas as nuclear disarmament, peace and humanitarian 
assistance. 
 
As the only atomic-bombed country, Japan should display its 
leadership in eliminating nuclear weapons. A resolution calling for 
nuclear disarmament that Japan presented was adopted on Oct. 29 in a 
first committee session of the General Assembly. The resolution 
called on all nuclear powers to reduce nuclear weapons in a 
transparent manner. Japan should make efforts to realize the 
resolution. 
 
The world is now shifting to multipolar from the age of U.S. 
unipolarism. Japan's foreign policy is now required to change its 
position during this turning point in time. 
 
SCHIEFFER