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Viewing cable 08MADRID1141, MADRID ECONOMIC WEEKLY, OCT. 27-31

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
08MADRID1141 2008-11-03 07:50 2011-08-24 16:30 UNCLASSIFIED Embassy Madrid
VZCZCXRO1356
RR RUEHAG RUEHDF RUEHIK RUEHLZ RUEHROV
DE RUEHMD #1141/01 3080750
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 030750Z NOV 08
FM AMEMBASSY MADRID
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 5505
INFO RUCNMEM/EU MEMBER STATES COLLECTIVE
RUEHLA/AMCONSUL BARCELONA 3632
RUCPDOC/DEPT OF COMMERCE WASHDC
RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHDC
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 MADRID 001141 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR EUR/WE, EEB/IFD/OMA, EEB/ESC/IEC 
TREASURY FOR OIA/OEE/W.LINDQUIST 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: ECON EFIN ELAB KIPR SP
SUBJECT: MADRID ECONOMIC WEEKLY, OCT. 27-31 
 
MADRID 00001141  001.2 OF 002 
 
 
Contents: 
 
ECON: GDP Contracts in Q3 and GOS Budget Deficit Continues 
Rise 
ELAB/EFIN: GOS Considers Labor, Mortgage Measures 
ECON: Inflation Drops to 3.6% 
EFIN: Stocks Drop but Big Bank Profits Remain Healthy 
EFIN: GOS to Start Buying Bank Assets in November 
EFIN: Savings Bank Mergers Begin 
KIPR: GOS to Host IPR Conference 
 
GDP Contracts in Q3 and GOS Budget Deficit Continues Rise 
 
1.(U) Spain's GDP was 0.2% lower in the July-September 
quarter than in the previous quarter, according to a Bank of 
Spain estimate.  This is the first quarter-on-quarter 
contraction since 1993.  Private consumption and residential 
investment are the two sectors that have slowed the most. 
This figure does not include much of the impact of the drop 
in confidence resulting from the mid-September financial 
crisis.  The slowdown is affecting the GOS' fiscal position; 
for the year to September, the government's deficit was 1.24% 
of GDP.  (El Pais, 11/1 and 10/29) 
 
GOS Considers Labor, Mortgage Measures 
 
2.(U) The Labor Ministry met with labor and business groups 
to discuss subsidies for firms that hire workers and for the 
self-employed.  The GOS also is reported to be considering 
measures to help the unemployed meet mortgage payments. (El 
Pais, 11/1; Expansion, 11/1) 
 
Inflation Drops to 3.6% 
 
3.(U) Inflation fell in October to 3.6% on a year-on-year 
basis, according to the official estimate of the harmonized 
consumer price index.  GOS officials credited declining oil 
prices; the rate peaked at 5.3% in July when oil was over 
$147/barrel.  Secretary of State for Economy David Vergara 
told reporters October 28 that inflation would finish the 
year close to 3% and could fall below 3% in the first half of 
ΒΆ2009.  GOS officials expressed hope that declining inflation 
in Spain and other countries could lead the European Central 
Bank to cut interest rates, as ECB President Trichet 
suggested in an October 27 Madrid speech.  It is not clear 
how much of an effect on inflation the economic slump is 
having separate from that of the oil price decline. 
(Expansion, 10/30; All press, 10/28) 
 
Stocks Drop but Big Bank Profits Remain Healthy 
 
4.(U) The IBEX-35 blue chip stock index ended its worst month 
in the last ten years, falling 17% in October.  Many stocks 
now have dividend yields greater than low-risk bond or 
deposit yields.  Spain's two largest banks, Banco Santander 
and BBVA, each reported third-quarter profits slighly higher 
than their third-quarter 2007 levels.  (Expansion, 11/1 and 
10/29) 
 
GOS to Start Buying Bank Assets in November 
 
5.(U) The GOS' Financial Asset Acquisition Fund (FAAF) 
governing council, chaired by Vice President and 
Economy/Finance Minister Solbes, held its first meeting 
October 27 and established procedures to purchase bank assets 
via auction.  In November, the FAAF will buy for up to two 
years up to 5 billion euros of mortgage-based assets and 
other assets that have been issued since August 1, 2007 and 
have credit ratings of AA or better.  In December, the FAAF 
will buy up to 5 billion euros of new mortgage-based assets 
with credit ratings of AAA.  One article suggested that 
bankers viewed the volumes involved as insufficient to 
generate new lending and that banks would use the proceeds to 
meet upcoming obligations.  (Expansion, 10/27; El 
Confidencial, 10/28) 
 
Savings Bank Mergers Begin 
 
6.(U) Savings banks (cajas) in two provinces of the Basque 
region approved a merger that will create Spain's fifth 
largest caja.  BBK and Kutxa will become the Caja de Ahorros 
de Euskadi, the Basque Savings Bank.  The new entity has 
holdings that could be worth up to six billion euros in 
companies such as Iberdrola and Enagas.  Separately, Catalan 
regional president Jose Montilla met with the heads of the 
region's ten cajas amid seculation that some of them might 
merge.  Fitch Ratings lowered its rating of Caixa Laietana, a 
 
MADRID 00001141  002.2 OF 002 
 
 
small Catalan caja heavily exposed to construction and real 
estate, from BBB  to BBB, only two steps above junk bond 
status.  (El Confidencial, 10/28) 
 
GOS to Host IPR Conference 
 
7.(U) The telecommunications secretariat of the Ministry of 
Industry, Tourism, and Commerce will host its second annual 
international conference on intellectual property November 
25-26 as part of the International Digital Content Forum 
trade show.  The US Patent and Trademark Office will be 
represented, and Department of Commerce representation is 
possible as well.  (El Pais, 11/27; Embassy 
AGUIRRE