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Viewing cable 08KUALALUMPUR991, ANWAR SHIFTS GEARS, NOT GOALS, SAY AIDES

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
08KUALALUMPUR991 2008-11-09 23:24 2011-08-03 00:00 CONFIDENTIAL Embassy Kuala Lumpur
Appears in these articles:
http://malaysia-today.net/mtcolumns/42404-wikileaks-anwar-shifts-gears-not-goals-say-aides
VZCZCXRO6876
PP RUEHCHI RUEHDT RUEHHM RUEHNH
DE RUEHKL #0991/01 3142324
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 092324Z NOV 08
FM AMEMBASSY KUALA LUMPUR
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 1936
INFO RUCNASE/ASEAN MEMBER COLLECTIVE
RUEHBY/AMEMBASSY CANBERRA 2678
RUEHLO/AMEMBASSY LONDON 0516
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
RHHMUNA/CDR USPACOM HONOLULU HI
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 KUALA LUMPUR 000991 
 
SIPDIS 
 
FOR EAP AND INR 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/16/2018 
TAGS: PGOV PINR KDEM MY
SUBJECT: ANWAR SHIFTS GEARS, NOT GOALS, SAY AIDES 
 
REF: KUALA LUMPUR 979 - INITIAL REACTION TO U.S. 
     ELECTION 
 
Classified By: Political Counselor Mark D. Clark for reasons 1.4 (b and 
 d). 
 
Summary and Comment 
------------------- 
 
1.  (C) Opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim has shifted to a less 
aggressive posture for now, but his goal remains bringing 
down the UMNO-led government through parliamentary crossovers 
prior to Deputy Prime Minister Najib becoming the next UMNO 
party president and Prime Minister, according to top 
officials in Anwar's Peoples Justice Party (PKR).  Part of 
Anwar's strategy entails reaching out to the "losers" in the 
transition from Prime Minister Abdullah to Najib, including 
UMNO veteran Tengku Razaleigh.  The PKR officials 
acknowledged that the government's September arrests of three 
persons under the Internal Security Act (ISA) had sent an 
effective warning to those considering switching their 
support to Anwar.  PKR officials and Anwar's lawyers assumed 
the sodomy prosecution against Anwar would move forward, with 
a trial phase likely beginning by January.  The Opposition 
was unlikely to support "superficial" reforms that UMNO would 
try to rush through parliament as part of outgoing PM 
Abdullah's legacy.  The Ambassador met on October 30 with 
Tengku Razaleigh, who complained about his inability to 
compete in the UMNO nomination process due to money politics 
and contended that the next UMNO president (Najib) would not 
necessarily become the next Prime Minister. 
 
2.  (C) Comment:  We currently are witnessing a different 
tone and pace in the struggle between the Opposition and UMNO 
following Anwar's unrealized September deadline and the rapid 
consolidation of UMNO support behind Najib as the next Prime 
Minister.  While PKR's rationale for wanting to head-off 
Najib remains in place, Anwar has lost political momentum for 
the moment and seems to face increasingly long odds in 
securing future crossovers.  Anwar's ability to attract the 
"losers" from the Abdullah-Najib transition remains 
theoretical.  End Summary and Comment. 
 
Anwar's Less Aggressive Posture 
------------------------------- 
 
3.  (C) Polcouns met separately with PKR Information Chief 
Tian Chua and PKR Vice President Sivarasa Rasiah on November 
3 and 5, respectively.  Both PKR officials acknowledged that 
Opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim has shifted to a lower key 
approach since the passage of Anwar's public September 16 
deadline to bring down PM Abdullah's government through the 
crossover of 30 or more government MPs.  Compared with 
September, Anwar is now more focused on consolidating the 
Opposition People's Alliance (Pakatan Rakyat), which 
encompasses three parties with often disparate political 
views:  PKR, the Chinese-dominated Democratic Action Party 
(DAP), and the Islamic Party of Malaysia (PAS).  As the 
formal Opposition leader in Parliament, Anwar is devoting 
attention to Pakatan's actions in parliament and guiding 
Opposition MPs, most of whom are sitting in the body for the 
first time. 
 
Crossover Goal Unchanged 
------------------------ 
 
4.  (C) Despite his less aggressive public posture, Anwar's 
goal remains bringing down the UMNO-led government through 
parliamentary crossovers prior to Deputy Prime Minister Najib 
Tun Razak becoming the next UMNO party president and Prime 
Minister, Tian Chua and Sivarasa stated.  The time horizon 
has shifted from December to March 2009, in line with the 
shift in the UMNO party elections, at which time Najib is set 
to become UMNO president uncontested.  PKR officials 
reiterated that Anwar and PKR remain focused on preempting 
Najib's takeover if possible, because they believe Najib 
would invoke authoritarian measures to scuttle the Opposition 
before the next national elections.  In the months ahead, PKR 
would look for opportunities to weaken support for Najib and 
the government, for example by criticizing GOM measures in 
the face of a possible dramatic downturn in the economy 
following the global financial crisis, or by using new 
information linking Najib to scandals, like the Altantuya 
case and the Eurocopter purchase.  (Comment:  Anwar and other 
Opposition leaders have taken up such issues in Parliament 
over the past few weeks.  On November 4, Anwar led a walk-out 
of Opposition MPs to protest Najib's refusal to allow 
questions during his presentation of revised budget figures. 
End Comment.) 
 
Attracting the "Losers" 
----------------------- 
 
5.  (C) Anwar does not have enough ethnic Malay MPs ready to 
join the Opposition, according to both Tian Chua and 
Sivarasa, without which the Opposition faces unacceptable 
risks of a harsh government backlash justified on the basis 
of Malay nationalism.  Anwar reportedly hopes to attract 
disaffected UMNO leaders and MPs who are "losers" in the 
current transition from Abdullah to Najib; most prominent 
among these is veteran UMNO leader Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah. 
Talks with Razaleigh remain inconclusive because Razaleigh 
continues to insist on the prospective position of Prime 
Minister, while PKR estimates that Razaleigh could secure the 
crossover of only four or five UMNO MPs (see notes below from 
the Ambassador's recent meeting with Razaleigh).  Anwar is 
also maintaining contact with PM Abdullah at this stage, 
primarily through son-in-law Khairy Jamaluddin, Tian Chua 
said.  Whether members of Abdullah's circle would consider 
crossing over to Anwar remained an open question. 
 
ISA as Warning to MPs 
--------------------- 
 
6.  (C) The two PKR officials acknowledged that the 
government's September arrests of three persons -- a 
journalist, an Opposition MP and blogger Raja Petra -- under 
the Internal Security Act (ISA) had sent an effective warning 
to those MPs considering switching support to Anwar. (let's 
mention Petra's release today)  (Comment:  In early October, 
UMNO MP Nur Jazlan told Polcouns that the ISA arrests had 
been "very successful" in achieving UMNO's objective of 
intimidating MPs who had considered joining with Anwar.  End 
Comment.) 
 
Sodomy Trial Will Remain a Factor 
--------------------------------- 
 
7.  (C) Sankara Nair, a prominent attorney for Anwar, told us 
on November 5 that, regardless of maneuvers in the current 
Sessions Court, it only a matter of time before the 
government shifted Anwar's sodomy case to the High Court, a 
more favorable venue for the prosecution.  Sivarasa, who also 
serves as one of Anwar's lawyers, believed that the trial 
phase of the sodomy case would begin in earnest by January. 
Neither Sankara nor Sivarasa believed the government would 
drop the case. 
 
Opposition Unlikely to Support Abdullah's Reforms 
--------------------------------------------- ---- 
 
8.  (C) The Prime Minister's circle -- through Khairy -- has 
approached Anwar regarding support for judicial reform 
measures that would be presented in Parliament soon as part 
of Abdullah's parting legacy, according to Sivarasa and Tian 
Chua.  The Opposition, however, was unlikely to support these 
measures because they did not represent meaningful changes. 
The Opposition believed, for example, the proposed changes to 
the Anti-Corruption Commission would leave the body under 
firm executive control.  Following the resignation of legal 
reform Minister Zaid Ibrahim, Nazri Aziz, de facto Minister 
for parliamentary affairs, led the judicial reform 
discussions in Parliament, but he lacked credibility. 
 
Anwar and the U.S. Presidential Election 
---------------------------------------- 
 
9.  (U) Following his initial remarks of November 5 (reftel), 
Anwar has continued to comment generally positively on 
Senator Obama's victory in the U.S. presidential election. 
Time Magazine highlighted Anwar's remarks on President-elect 
Obama as the first among those of only 11 prominent world 
personalities.  Anwar wrote that, "In Obama's victory are 
sown the seeds of great expectations that a truly new chapter 
will be written in the history of the world."  Anwar publicly 
claimed he had been in contact with Senator Obama. 
 
Ambassador Calls on Razaleigh 
----------------------------- 
 
10.  (C) The Ambassador met on October 30 with Tengku 
Razaleigh, who, as the only challenger to DPM Najib for the 
UMNO presidency, had yet to garner a single UMNO division 
nomination (he now has one).  Casting himself as a reformer, 
Razaleigh said that he wished to bring greater democracy and 
transparency to UMNO, but that he could not compete in the 
current nomination race in the face of engrained corruption 
and money-politics.  Razaleigh said that Najib's coming to 
power would allow former Prime Minister Mahathir to regain 
substantial influence within the government.  Razaleigh 
indicated his relations with Mahathir, his former political 
rival, remained strained. 
 
11.  (C) While Razaleigh conceded that Najib would win the 
UMNO contest, he stressed several times to the Ambassador 
that the next UMNO president would not necessarily become the 
next Prime Minister, but did not further explain this remark. 
 Razaleigh speculated that there now existed grounds for PM 
Abdullah and Anwar Ibrahim to work together, for example on 
reform measures.  Razaleigh thought that Khairy Jamaluddin 
currently acted as the go-between for Abdullah and Anwar. 
Razaleigh acknowledged, as he has publicly, that he continues 
contact with opposition politicians, but he did not otherwise 
signal he planned to leave UMNO. 

KEITH