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Viewing cable 08HANOI1242, Vietnam Macroeconomic Update - Week of November 3

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
08HANOI1242 2008-11-06 05:47 2011-08-25 00:00 UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Embassy Hanoi
VZCZCXRO4263
PP RUEHCHI RUEHDT RUEHFK RUEHHM RUEHKSO RUEHNAG RUEHNH RUEHPB
DE RUEHHI #1242 3110547
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 060547Z NOV 08
FM AMEMBASSY HANOI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 8695
INFO RUEHHM/AMCONSUL HO CHI MINH 5268
RUCNASE/ASEAN MEMBER COLLECTIVE
RUEHZU/ASIAN PACIFIC ECONOMIC COOPERATION
RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHINGTON DC
RUCPDOC/DEPT OF COMMERCE WASHINGTON DC
UNCLAS HANOI 001242 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR EAP/MLS MBROWN 
SINGAPORE FOR TREASURY 
TREASURY FOR SCHUN 
USTR FOR DBISBEE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: ECON PGOV EAID VM
SUBJECT: Vietnam Macroeconomic Update - Week of November 3 
 
Ref: A) Hanoi 1206 
 B) Hanoi 377 
 
1.  (U)  Summary:  Signaling a shift toward mitigating the effects 
of the global financial crisis, the State Bank of Vietnam cut the 
base interest rate again, this time to 12 percent.  Total registered 
foreign direct investment for the year to date increased to $59.3 
billion, up 429% against the same period last year, but disbursed 
capital was only 15.3% of total registered FDI.  The State 
Securities Commission said it would avoid market intervention for 
now.  End Summary. 
 
State Bank Cuts Rates Again 
--------------------------- 
 
2.  (U) On November 3 the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) cut the base 
interest rate for the second time in two weeks (reftel A), this time 
from 13 to 12 percent.  As a result, the new official cap for 
lending rates is now 18 percent, down from the previous 19.5 
percent.  The SBV also cut the discount rate to 11 percent from 12 
percent and the re-financing rate to 13 percent from 14 percent.  At 
the same time, the Bank also lowered the reserve requirement ratio 
by 1 percent for Dong deposits and 2 percent for foreign currency 
deposits.  The adjustments took effect on November 5. 
 
3.  (SBU) In its announcement, the SBV signaled a shift towards 
mitigating the effects of the global financial crisis, stating that 
its actions follow the Government's instructions on "continuing to 
control inflation, proactively preventing economic slowdown, 
ensuring social security, macroeconomic stability and sustaining 
reasonable growth."  Despite recent GVN comments about the health of 
the Vietnamese banking system, the SBV also asked financial 
institutions to restructure the repayment schedules of loans which 
were overdue due to "impacts of the global financial crisis." 
(Comment:  SBV Governor Giau recently put the percentage of 
non-performing loans at 4 percent, but local analysts are skeptical 
of this figure.  End Comment.)  While the SBV's official exchange 
rate remained at 16,512 on the day following the moves, black market 
rates went up to 17,000 (buying at 17,000 and selling at 17,100) and 
interbank rates were at the top of the trading band 
(16,830-16,840). 
 
Registered FDI Way Up, Implementation Lags 
------------------------------------------ 
 
4.  (U) According to figures from the Ministry of Planning and 
Investment (MPI), Vietnam attracted $59.3 billion in total 
registered FDI over the past ten months, an increase of 429% against 
the same period last year.  Of the total amount, $32.5 billion were 
in industry and construction (with 512 projects), the services 
sector attracted 400 projects at $25.6 billion and the remaining 
$222.4 million went to agriculture with 41 projects.  However, 
disbursed capital, though up in absolute terms, remained low at 
about $9.1 billion or 15.3% of total registered FDI.  The gap 
between registered capital and implemented capital seems to be 
increasing.  FDI disbursement made up between 50 and 80 percent of 
the nation's newly registered capital in the 2000-2005 period, then 
fell to 40.1% ($4.1 billion out of $10.2 billion) in 2006, and 21.3% 
( eight billion out of 21.3 billion) in 2007. 
 
SSC Avoids Intervention, For Now 
-------------------------------- 
5.  (U) In a recent press interview, the Head of the Market 
Development Division for the State Securities Commission (SSC), Dr. 
Nguyen Son, stated that the SSC will not revert back to narrower 
daily trading bands or SCIC purchases to stabilize the market 
(reftel B).  Instead, he said, the SSC is recommending that the 
collection of personal income tax on securities investors be delayed 
and that supervision of financial institutions, banks and securities 
firms be tightened.  He minimized the market impact of sales by 
foreign investors, saying that net bond and share sales of close to 
$1 billion "are not really big" and will not have serious 
consequences on the domestic market.  Son did, however, reserve the 
right to take "necessary measures" if the market plunges, adding 
that the SSC has drafted a risk management and crisis response plan 
for such situations. 
 
6.  This message was cleared by Ho Chi Minh City. 
 
MICHALAK