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Viewing cable 08ABUJA2225, NIGERIA: MAKING SENSE OF THE 2008 BUDGET

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
08ABUJA2225 2008-11-13 12:44 2011-08-25 00:00 UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Embassy Abuja
VZCZCXRO9970
PP RUEHMA RUEHPA
DE RUEHUJA #2225/01 3181244
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 131244Z NOV 08
FM AMEMBASSY ABUJA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 4433
INFO RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHDC PRIORITY
RUEHOS/AMCONSUL LAGOS 0252
RUEHZK/ECOWAS COLLECTIVE
RUCPDOC/DEPT OF COMMERCE WASHDC
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 ABUJA 002225 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT PASS TO USTR AGAMA 
TREASURY FOR PETERS, IERONIMO, HALL 
DOC FOR 3317/ITA/OA/KBURRESS 
DOC FOR 3130/USFC/OIO/ANESA/DHARRIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: EFIN ECON EINV PGOV NI
SUBJECT: NIGERIA: MAKING SENSE OF THE 2008 BUDGET 
 
REF: A. ABUJA 882 
 B. 07 ABUJA 2417 
 C. 07 ABUJA 2227 
 D. 07 ABUJA 1907 
 E. 07 ABUJA 1793 
 
SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED-HANDLE ACCORDINGLY 
 
1. (U) Summary.   The 2008 amended and supplemented budgets were 
finally passed in October after much back and forth between the 
executive branch and the National Assembly.  A reluctant compromise 
was reached, but the key remaining issue is implementation.  This 
poor budget process between the executive and legislative branches 
calls into question whether the federal government will reach its 
goals of fulfilling the President's Seven Point Agenda or move 
toward becoming a top 20 economy by 2020.   End summary. 
 
Budget 2008 Background - Slow Process 
-------------------------------------- 
 
2. (U) In November 2007, President Yar'Adua presented to the 
National Assembly a 2.4 trillion naira budget ($20.5 billion) for 
calendar year 2008 (reftel A).  Due to a difference in budget totals 
between the executive and the legislative branch, the National 
Assembly did not pass the budget until April 2008.  The delay was 
caused by the National Assembly increasing the budget from 2.4 
trillion naira to 2.9 trillion naira ($24.8 billion).  In addition, 
the National Assembly increased the budget benchmark price for crude 
oil from $53.83 per barrel to $59 per barrel at 2.45 million barrels 
a day, recurrent expenditure (salaries and overheads) by 78 percent 
and the capital budget by 285.3 billion naira ($2.4 billion). 
 
3. (U) President Yar'Adua responded by requesting that recurrent 
expenditure be increased by 20 percent, rather than 78 percent.  In 
addition, he wanted money accrued from the increased benchmark price 
to be used to eliminate the country's deficit.  The National 
Assembly agreed to some of the president's concerns but eventually 
passed a budget totaling 2.7 trillion naira ($23 billion).  Yar'Adua 
initially refused to sign the budget but signed it on April 14, 2008 
(reftel A); however, he signed it under the condition that it would 
be later amended, to which the National Assembly agreed. 
 
Budget Amendment Passes 
----------------------- 
 
4. (U) In early July, a budget amendment was forwarded to the 
National Assembly with a reduction from 2.7 trillion naira ($23 
billion) to 2.6 trillion naira ($22.2 billion). Amounts for 
statutory transfers (162 billion naira; $1.4 billion), and for debt 
service (372 billion naira; $3.2 billion) were left unchanged. 
Recurrent expenditure was also left unchanged at 1.3 trillion naira 
($11.1 billion), while capital expenditure was decreased from 860.3 
billion naira ($7.3 billion) to 714 billion naira ($6.1 billion). 
The National Assembly passed the amended budget with modifications 
on October 21.  On November 4, Dr. Bright Okogu, Director General of 
the Budget Office of the Federation, informed EconSpecialist that 
the differences in passed and proposed budgets were not large enough 
to warrant the president not signing and the executive branch was 
satisfied with the final version of the amended budget passed by the 
National Assembly. 
 
Supplementary Budget Passage 
---------------------------- 
 
5. (U) On October 23, President Yar'Adua proposed a 683 billion 
naira ($5.8 billion) supplementary budget to the National Assembly. 
Out of $5.8 billion, 463 billion naira ($3.9 billion) is allocated 
for capital expenditure, and 220 billion naira ($1.9 billion) for 
recurrent (non-debt) expenditures.  A significant proportion of the 
capital expenditure, 324 billion naira ($2.8 billion), is earmarked 
for the power sector to boost Nigeria's electricity supply (septel). 
 The supplementary budget was passed by the Senate on October 30 and 
by the House of Representatives on November 4. 
 
Poor Execution 
-------------- 
 
6. (SBU) Comment: The puzzling budget process and back and forth 
between the two branches of government shows lack of communication 
between the President and the National Assembly.  It also 
demonstrates that methods and procedures for the federal budget are 
not clearly defined.  Recurrent expenditures (salaries and 
overheads) are usually implemented entirely, but problems arise at 
the effective implementation stage with the capital budget.  Too 
 
ABUJA 00002225  002 OF 002 
 
 
often the federal government does not release funds on time, 
resulting in many projects left unfinished or significantly delayed. 
 At this same stage, corruption at all levels of the government 
appears to be widespread.  If the federal government can not work 
with the National Assembly to prepare, pass and implement the budget 
in a timely and efficient manner than it makes it very difficult for 
the administration to accomplish President Yar'Adua's Seven Point 
Agenda and for Nigeria to become one of the top twenty economies in 
the world by the year 2020. End Comment. 
 
7. (U) This message was coordinated with ConGen Lagos. 
 
SANDERS