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Viewing cable 08SANTIAGO923, UPDATE ON CHILE'S ECONOMY: OCTOBER 15 MARKETS SLIDE BACK

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
08SANTIAGO923 2008-10-16 10:52 2011-08-25 00:00 UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Embassy Santiago
VZCZCXRO6981
OO RUEHAO RUEHCD RUEHGA RUEHGD RUEHGR RUEHHA RUEHHO RUEHMC RUEHMT
RUEHNG RUEHNL RUEHQU RUEHRD RUEHRG RUEHRS RUEHTM RUEHVC
DE RUEHSG #0923 2901052
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 161052Z OCT 08
FM AMEMBASSY SANTIAGO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 3817
INFO RUEHWH/WESTERN HEMISPHERIC AFFAIRS DIPL POSTS
RUEHSO/AMCONSUL SAO PAULO 0788
RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHDC
RUCPDOC/DEPT OF COMMERCE WASHDC
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
UNCLAS SANTIAGO 000923 
 
STATE PLEASE PASS TO USTR KDUCKWORTH/MSULLIVAN 
TREASURY FOR SSENICH 
COMMERCE FOR KMANN 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: ECON EFIN ETRD EINV ECIN PGOV PREL CI
 
SUBJECT:  UPDATE ON CHILE'S ECONOMY:  OCTOBER 15 MARKETS SLIDE BACK 
DOWN 
 
REFS:  SANTIAGO 921 AND PREVIOUS 
 
1. (U) SUMMARY:  This is another in a series of updates on major 
developments in Chile's economy in the face of global financial 
turmoil.  On October 15 copper prices fell and Chile's state-owned 
copper company projected lower profits.  There were also decreases 
in the exchange rate and the Chilean stock market.  The Central Bank 
published a poll of Chilean banks showing the majority are 
restricting lending due to fear of greater risk.  Chile's 
Association of Manufacturing Exporters claims it has been lightly 
impacted by the current crisis.  END SUMMARY. 
 
Copper Prices Close Lower 
------------------------- 
 
2. (U) Copper closed at approximately $2.33/pound, a drop of almost 
8% on yesterday's price.  Press reports indicate Chile's state owned 
copper company, CODELCO, is projecting a surplus of $7.4 billion in 
2008, a decrease of 12% from 2007.  The decrease is due to lower 
copper prices and higher production costs for the company, trends 
which will mean a significant cut in profits by 2012.  CODELCO's 
estimate was made before the latest fall in copper prices resulting 
from the global financial crisis. 
 
Chilean Peso Down vs. U.S. Dollar 
--------------------------------- 
 
3. (U) The exchange rate fell, closing at 627 Chilean Pesos to 1 
U.S. Dollar (a decrease of about 2.5% on yesterday's rate). 
 
Small Decrease In The Stock Market 
---------------------------------- 
 
4. (U) The IPSA fell by less than 1% from yesterday's close. 
 
Central Bank Poll Shows Banks Hesitant To Lend 
--------------------------------------------- - 
 
5. (U) The Central Bank published a poll of Chilean banks that shows 
50% have increased restrictions on consumer loans and 61% have done 
the same on mortgages due to fears of greater credit risks resulting 
from the global financial crisis.  91% of banks have restricted 
lending to large companies, whereas 74% report greater restrictions 
on loans to small- to medium-sized firms.  According to the poll, 
67% of banks reported a fall in the demand for credit. 
 
Smaller Exporters See Little Negative Impact 
-------------------------------------------- 
 
6. (SBU) Embassy contacts at the Chilean Association of 
Manufacturing Exporters (ASEXMA) report their members have been 
lightly impacted by the global financial crisis.  ASEXMA's members 
are mostly small- to medium-sized enterprises who export products 
but also maintain a significant presence in domestic markets.  Since 
the beginning of the crisis ASEXMA's members have successfully 
diversified their export markets.  They report no problems with 
liquidity, no slow down in investment, and they do not have debt 
held by foreign institutions.  Members do not envision significant 
layoffs (nor do they expect to hire many new workers). 
 
7. (SBU) ASEXMA feels well insulated from the effects of tightening 
credit among banks because the majority of members deal directly 
with importers in foreign countries.  ASEXMA is concerned about the 
potential for future growth in their sector.  Members have been 
pushing for longer-term financing programs in Chile (most programs 
are focused on short-term lending).  As a result of the financial 
crisis, most banks are unwilling to take on greater risk, so the 
focus will likely remain on the short-term. 
SIMONS