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Viewing cable 08RIGA620, LATVIAN BANKING SECTOR APPEARS STABLE DESPITE RUMORS

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
08RIGA620 2008-10-09 14:58 2011-08-25 00:00 UNCLASSIFIED Embassy Riga
VZCZCXRO2330
PP RUEHAG RUEHAST RUEHDA RUEHDF RUEHFL RUEHIK RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHLN
RUEHLZ RUEHPOD RUEHROV RUEHSR RUEHVK RUEHYG
DE RUEHRA #0620 2831458
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 091458Z OCT 08
FM AMEMBASSY RIGA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 5299
INFO RUEATRS/DEPTTREAS WASHDC
RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
UNCLAS RIGA 000620 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: ECON EFIN ETRD LG
SUBJECT: LATVIAN BANKING SECTOR APPEARS STABLE DESPITE RUMORS 
 
REF: RIGA 00619 
1. Summary: Despite speculation to the contrary, the Latvian banking 
sector appears to be at little risk of the kind of collapse that 
threatened Iceland.  Speculation has centered around the 
deteriorating condition of the national economy, rapid decline of 
global financial markets, reports of parent banks' exposure to toxic 
assets, and troubles in the Nordic countries combined with dubious 
news stories. However, the main indicators of the sector are robust, 
exposure of Latvian banks to toxic assets is minimal, and the 
largest bank in Latvia, Swedbank, which has been the primary target 
of various rumors, remains stable. 
--------------------- 
Rumors of Instability 
--------------------- 
2. To a large extent, the fears over the stability of Latvian banks 
are based on the the evident slowdown of economic activity, the 
increasing possibibility of a prolonged recession and lingering 
consumer price inflation. Some believe this turbulence could 
dramatically increase loan default rates. Fitch downgraded 
Swedbank's future outlook due to the econlmic worries in the 
Baltics, but did not change the rating of its individual unit in 
Latvia. The long term effect on default rates remains to be seen, 
but for the time being, the rates are fairly low. Swedbank notes 
that its rate of 90-day late payments is only 0.91%, while the 
market average is 2.6%. 
3. There is also concern that that Swedbank and SEB's troubles at 
home might have an effect on their subsidiaries in Latvia. These 
worries were intensified by a report aired last week on evening news 
of Latvia's National Television. The story claimed that the crisis 
in these two banks is demonstrated by the plunge of their stock. The 
story was heavily criticized and called unprofessional by a member 
of the parliament. To add to the existing tension, the Latvian 
Security Police announced they have received a request to 
investigate alleged deliberate attempts to destabilize the Latvian 
financial system. 
----------------------- 
Indicators of Stability 
----------------------- 
3. In meetings with Ambassador Larson, Prime Minister Godmanis and 
his advisors affirmed their confidence in the Latvian banking 
system.  See Reftel. 
4. Teodors Tverijons, President of Commercial Bank Association of 
Latvia, publically denounced the rumors and stated that the banking 
sector is more than stable. Tverijons reiterated that banks are not 
facing any trouble, pointing out that liquidity of Latvian banks is 
just over 50%, well above the required 30%, and equity capital is 
over 12%, again above the required 8%. 
5. Maris Avotins, Chairman of Swedbank Latvia, in an October 3 
meeting with Ambassador Larson, reaffirmed that Swedbank is on solid 
ground and that any rumors over the instability of the bank are 
unwarranted.  Swedbank Chief Economist Martins Kazaks, in a separate 
conversation, highlighted that the equity capital of Swedbank Latvia 
is firm at 12.66% and liquidity is over 40%. Kazaks asserts that the 
bank's capital buffer and liquidity level are sufficienrly high to 
absorb unexpected changes in the market and provide long term 
security for the bank. 
6. To help restore customer confidence and faith in bank savings, 
the Financial and Capital Markets Comission of Latvia announced it 
has begun work on implementing the EU  directive adopted on October 
8 to raise deposit insurance from 20,000 EUR to 50,000 EUR.