Keep Us Strong WikiLeaks logo

Currently released so far... 97115 / 251,287

Articles

Browse latest releases

Browse by creation date

Browse by origin

A B C D F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W Y Z

Browse by tag

A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W X Y Z
ETRD EAGR ETTC EAID ECON EFIN ECIN EINV ELAB EAIR ENRG EPET EWWT ECPS EIND EMIN ELTN EC ETMIN EUC EZ ET ELECTIONS ENVR EU EUN EG EINT ER ECONOMICS ES EMS ENIV EEB EN ECE ECOSOC EK ENVIRONMENT EFIS EI EWT ENGRD ECPSN EXIM EIAD ERIN ECPC EDEV ENGY ECTRD EPA ESTH ECCT EINVECON ENGR ERTD EUR EAP EWWC ELTD EL EXIMOPIC EXTERNAL ETRDEC ESCAP ECO EGAD ELNT ECONOMIC ENV ETRN EIAR EUMEM ENRGPARMOTRASENVKGHGPGOVECONTSPLEAID EREL ECOM ECONETRDEAGRJA ETCC ETRG ECONOMY EMED ETR ENERG EITC EFINOECD EURM EENG ERA EXPORT ENRD ECONEINVETRDEFINELABETRDKTDBPGOVOPIC EGEN EBRD EVIN ETRAD ECOWAS EFTA ECONETRDBESPAR EGOVSY EPIN EID ECONENRG EDRC ESENV ETT EB ENER ELTNSNAR ECHEVARRIA ETRC EPIT EDUC ESA EFI ENRGY ESCI EE EAIDXMXAXBXFFR EETC ECIP EIAID EIVN EBEXP ESTN EING EGOV ETRA EPETEIND ELAN ETRDGK EAIDRW ETRDEINVECINPGOVCS EPEC ENVI ELN EAG EPCS EPRT EPTED ETRB EUM EAIDS EFIC EFINECONEAIDUNGAGM EAIDAR ESF EIDN ELAM EDU EV EAIDAF ECN EDA EXBS EINTECPS ENRGTRGYETRDBEXPBTIOSZ EPREL EAC EINVEFIN ETA EAGER EINDIR ECA ECLAC ELAP EITI EUCOM ECONEFINETRDPGOVEAGRPTERKTFNKCRMEAID EARG ELDIN EINVKSCA ENNP EFINECONCS EFINTS ECCP ETC EAIRASECCASCID EINN ETRP EAIDNI EFQ ECOQKPKO EGPHUM EBUD ECONEINVEFINPGOVIZ ENERGY ELB EINDETRD EMI ECONEFIN EIB EURN ETRDEINVTINTCS EIN EFIM ETIO ELAINE EMN EATO EWTR EIPR EINVETC ETTD ETDR EIQ ECONCS EPPD ENRGIZ EISL ESPINOSA ELEC EAIG ESLCO EUREM ENTG ERD EINVECONSENVCSJA EEPET EUNCH ECINECONCS ETRO ETRDECONWTOCS ECUN EFND EPECO EAIRECONRP ERGR ETRDPGOV ECPN ENRGMO EPWR EET EAIS EAGRE EDUARDO EAGRRP EAIDPHUMPRELUG EICN ECONQH EVN EGHG ELBR EINF EAIDHO EENV ETEX ERNG ED
KMDR KPAO KPKO KJUS KCRM KGHG KFRD KWMN KDEM KTFN KHIV KGIC KIDE KSCA KNNP KHUM KIPR KSUM KISL KIRF KCOR KRCM KPAL KWBG KN KS KOMC KSEP KFLU KPWR KTIA KSEO KMPI KHLS KICC KSTH KMCA KVPR KPRM KE KU KZ KFLO KSAF KTIP KTEX KBCT KOCI KOLY KOR KAWC KACT KUNR KTDB KSTC KLIG KSKN KNN KCFE KCIP KGHA KHDP KPOW KUNC KDRL KV KPREL KCRS KPOL KRVC KRIM KGIT KWIR KT KIRC KOMO KRFD KUWAIT KG KFIN KSCI KTFIN KFTN KGOV KPRV KSAC KGIV KCRIM KPIR KSOC KBIO KW KGLB KMWN KPO KFSC KSEAO KSTCPL KSI KPRP KREC KFPC KUNH KCSA KMRS KNDP KR KICCPUR KPPAO KCSY KTBT KCIS KNEP KFRDCVISCMGTCASCKOCIASECPHUMSMIGEG KNNB KGCC KINR KPOP KMFO KENV KNAR KVIR KDRG KDMR KFCE KNAO KDEN KGCN KICA KIMMITT KMCC KLFU KMSG KSEC KUM KCUL KMNP KSMT KCOM KOMCSG KSPR KPMI KRAD KIND KCRP KAUST KWAWC KTER KCHG KRDP KPAS KITA KTSC KPAOPREL KWGB KIRP KJUST KMIG KLAB KTFR KSEI KSTT KAPO KSTS KLSO KWNN KPOA KHSA KNPP KPAONZ KBTS KWWW KY KJRE KPAOKMDRKE KCRCM KSCS KWMNCI KESO KWUN KPLS KIIP KEDEM KPAOY KRIF KGICKS KREF KTRD KFRDSOCIRO KTAO KJU KWMNPHUMPRELKPAOZW KEN KO KNEI KEMR KKIV KEAI KWAC KRCIM KWCI KFIU KWIC KCORR KOMS KNNO KPAI KBWG KTTB KTBD KTIALG KILS KFEM KTDM KESS KNUC KPA KOMCCO KCEM KRCS KWBGSY KNPPIS KNNPMNUC KWN KERG KLTN KALM KCCP KSUMPHUM KREL KGH KLIP KTLA KAWK KWMM KVRP KVRC KAID KSLG KDEMK KX KIF KNPR KCFC KFTFN KTFM KPDD KCERS KMOC KDEMAF KMEPI KEMS KDRM KEPREL KBTR KEDU KNP KIRL KNNR KMPT KISLPINR KTPN KA KJUSTH KPIN KDEV KTDD KAKA KFRP KWNM KTSD KINL KJUSKUNR KWWMN KECF KWBC KPRO KVBL KOM KFRDKIRFCVISCMGTKOCIASECPHUMSMIGEG KEDM KFLD KLPM KRGY KNNF KICR KIFR KM KWMNCS KAWS KLAP KPAK KDDG KCGC KID KNSD KMPF KPFO KDP KCMR KRMS KNPT KNNNP KTIAPARM KDTB KNUP KPGOV KNAP KNNC KUK KSRE KREISLER KIVP KQ KTIAEUN KPALAOIS KRM KISLAO KWM KFLOA
PHUM PINR PTER PGOV PREL PREF PL PM PHSA PE PARM PINS PK PUNE PO PALESTINIAN PU PBTS PROP PTBS POL POLI PA PGOVZI POLMIL POLITICAL PARTIES POLM PD POLITICS POLICY PAS PMIL PINT PNAT PV PKO PPOL PERSONS PING PBIO PH PETR PARMS PRES PCON PETERS PRELBR PT PLAB PP PAK PDEM PKPA PSOCI PF PLO PTERM PJUS PSOE PELOSI PROPERTY PGOVPREL PARP PRL PNIR PHUMKPAL PG PREZ PGIC PBOV PAO PKK PROV PHSAK PHUMPREL PROTECTION PGOVBL PSI PRELPK PGOVENRG PUM PRELKPKO PATTY PSOC PRIVATIZATION PRELSP PGOVEAIDUKNOSWGMHUCANLLHFRSPITNZ PMIG PREC PAIGH PROG PSHA PARK PETER POG PHUS PPREL PS PTERPREL PRELPGOV POV PKPO PGOVECON POUS PGOVPRELPHUMPREFSMIGELABEAIDKCRMKWMN PWBG PMAR PREM PAR PNR PRELPGOVEAIDECONEINVBEXPSCULOIIPBTIO PARMIR PGOVGM PHUH PARTM PN PRE PTE PY POLUN PPEL PDOV PGOVSOCI PIRF PGOVPM PBST PRELEVU PGOR PBTSRU PRM PRELKPAOIZ PGVO PERL PGOC PAGR PMIN PHUMR PVIP PPD PGV PRAM PINL PKPAL PTERE PGOF PINO PHAS PODC PRHUM PHUMA PREO PPA PEPFAR PGO PRGOV PAC PRESL PORG PKFK PEPR PRELP PREFA PNG PGOVPHUMKPAO PRELECON PINOCHET PFOR PGOVLO PHUMBA PRELC PREK PHUME PHJM POLINT PGOVPZ PGOVKCRM PGOVE PHALANAGE PARTY PECON PEACE PROCESS PLN PRELSW PAHO PEDRO PRELA PASS PPAO PGPV PNUM PCUL PGGV PSA PGOVSMIGKCRMKWMNPHUMCVISKFRDCA PGIV PRFE POGOV PEL PBT PAMQ PINF PSEPC POSTS PHUMPGOV PVOV PHSAPREL PROLIFERATION PENA PRELTBIOBA PIN PRELL PGOVPTER PHAM PHYTRP PTEL PTERPGOV PHARM PROTESTS PRELAF PKBL PRELKPAO PKNP PARMP PHUML PFOV PERM PUOS PRELGOV PHUMPTER PARAGRAPH PERURENA PBTSEWWT PCI PETROL PINSO PINSCE PQL PEREZ PBS

Browse by classification

Community resources

courage is contagious

Viewing cable 08OTTAWA1308, ELECTION 2008: RACE NARROWS WITH ONE WEEK TO GO

If you are new to these pages, please read an introduction on the structure of a cable as well as how to discuss them with others. See also the FAQs

Understanding cables
Every cable message consists of three parts:
  • The top box shows each cables unique reference number, when and by whom it originally was sent, and what its initial classification was.
  • The middle box contains the header information that is associated with the cable. It includes information about the receiver(s) as well as a general subject.
  • The bottom box presents the body of the cable. The opening can contain a more specific subject, references to other cables (browse by origin to find them) or additional comment. This is followed by the main contents of the cable: a summary, a collection of specific topics and a comment section.
To understand the justification used for the classification of each cable, please use this WikiSource article as reference.

Discussing cables
If you find meaningful or important information in a cable, please link directly to its unique reference number. Linking to a specific paragraph in the body of a cable is also possible by copying the appropriate link (to be found at theparagraph symbol). Please mark messages for social networking services like Twitter with the hash tags #cablegate and a hash containing the reference ID e.g. #08OTTAWA1308.
Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
08OTTAWA1308 2008-10-07 21:12 2011-04-28 00:00 UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Embassy Ottawa
VZCZCXRO0570
PP RUEHGA RUEHHA RUEHMT RUEHQU RUEHVC
DE RUEHOT #1308/01 2812112
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 072112Z OCT 08
FM AMEMBASSY OTTAWA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 8584
INFO RUCNCAN/ALL CANADIAN POSTS COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 OTTAWA 001308 
 
SIPDIS 
SENSITIVE 
 
STATE FOR WHA/CAN 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL CA
SUBJECT: ELECTION 2008: RACE NARROWS WITH ONE WEEK TO GO 
 
REF: A. OTTAWA 1293 
     B. TORONTO 288 
     C. OTTAWA 1258 
     D. OTTAWA 1216 
     E. OTTAWA 632 
 
1. (SBU) Summary:  Canada's major political parties have 
launched their final push to Election Day on October 14. 
Although the Conservative government appears certain to be 
re-elected, whether it will win a majority or another 
minority mandate is less clear.  The apparent slowing of 
Conservative momentum, the corresponding resurgence of the 
separatist Bloc in Quebec, and the prospect of strategic 
voting by those seeking to block a Conservative majority make 
the shape of the next House of Commons unpredictable.  The 
remaining nine days will be crucial in firming up voting 
intentions, and the parties will likely expend the greatest 
part of their advertising budget on a last blitz to move the 
polls.  End summary. 
 
THE LAST-MINUTE RUSH 
--------------------- 
 
2. (U) The majority of Canadians voters usually do not tune 
in until the second half of an election campaign.  Successive 
studies show that up to 20 percent of Canadian voters wait 
until the final week to make up their minds, while 
approximately 14 percent decide on Election Day itself.  This 
encourages a peak in political advertising in the final week 
of the campaign as parties try to nail down these wavering 
voters.  The fact that this election will fall on the day 
after Canada's Thanksgiving holiday, however, may limit 
politicians' ability to grab voters' attention. 
 
THE POLLS 
--------- 
 
3. (U)  As of October 6, most pollsters showed the 
Conservatives winning a minority government, but slipping 
from a high of 41 percent (majority territory) in the second 
week of the 36 day campaign.  These polls peg Conservative 
support at between 32 and 37 per cent nationally, at or below 
the 36 percent of the popular vote the party won in 2006. 
They attribute the decline to an erosion of support in 
Quebec, rising anxiety over the economy, and criticism of PM 
Harper's "steady as she goes" approach to turmoil in 
international financial markets.  While the race appears to 
be narrowing, however, Harper retains a decisive edge as 
voters' top choice for Prime Minister (34 percent to Dion's 
20 percent), and leads all his rivals with an overall 
leadership index score of 95 percent on trust, competence and 
national vision compared to 51 percent for Dion. 
 
4. (U) Mainstream polls indicate Liberal support between 23 
and 31 per cent, at or below the 30 percent of the vote the 
party won in the 2006 election.  The New Democratic Party 
(NDP) appears to have picked up some momentum, rising from 19 
to 21 percent over three days in one tracking poll, slightly 
ahead of the 17 percent it won in 2006.  The Green Party 
meanwhile polls between 10 and 12 percent.  Ipsos suggests 
that the Bloc Quebecois surged eight points since last week 
to 40 percent in Quebec largely on the strength of falling 
Conservative support in that province. 
 
OTHER MEASURES 
-------------- 
 
5. (U) In addition to mainstream pollsters, election stock 
market indexes and blogs are providing alternative tools to 
gauge likely voter preferences.  The University of British 
Columbia's non-profit Election Stock Market permits buyers to 
purchase "shares" in the political parties, betting on which 
party they believe will win.  "Investors" can wager a minimum 
of $25 and a maximum of $1,000.  The index in 2006 beat 3 of 
4 major national pollsters in predicting the final election 
results.  Just one week before the election, it puts 
Conservative support at 45 percent with 141 seats, the 
Liberals at 26 percent with 79 seats, the NDP at 18 percent 
QLiberals at 26 percent with 79 seats, the NDP at 18 percent 
and 42 seats, and the Bloc Quebecois with 14 percent 
nationally and 43 seats. 
 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
6. (SBU) Intense media focus on daily poll fluctuations can 
become "meaningless noise," making it difficult to discern 
the larger national picture.  The regional nature of many 
races, tight three-way contests in key urban constituencies 
in the battleground provinces of Ontario and British 
Columbia, and the parties' ability to get out their vote will 
 
OTTAWA 00001308  002 OF 002 
 
 
be essential factors in determining Canada's next government. 
 The opposition vote is fragmented, opening up opportunities 
for strategic voting and last-minute switching, especially by 
Green supporters.  The effect of the timing of the holiday 
weekend and the rate of voter participation (64.7 percent in 
2006 and expected to be lower in this election) are also 
unknown, making seat predictions hard to call.  However, if 
the current polls are accurate, the final results could 
mirror the outcome of the 2006 election, and ultimately 
reflect the essential stagnation in the polls over the past 
two and-a-half years.  End comment. 
 
Visit Canada,s Economy and Environment Forum at 
http://www.intelink.gov/communities/state/can ada 
 
WILKINS