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Viewing cable 08LONDON2542, PM BROWN DOES THE UNEXPECTED IN ADDRESSING

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
08LONDON2542 2008-10-06 14:22 2011-08-25 00:00 UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Embassy London
VZCZCXRO9390
PP RUEHAG RUEHAST RUEHDA RUEHDF RUEHFL RUEHIK RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHLN
RUEHLZ RUEHPOD RUEHROV RUEHSR RUEHVK RUEHYG
DE RUEHLO #2542/01 2801422
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 061422Z OCT 08
FM AMEMBASSY LONDON
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0007
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEHBL/AMCONSUL BELFAST PRIORITY 1132
RUEHED/AMCONSUL EDINBURGH PRIORITY 0992
RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHDC PRIORITY
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC PRIORITY
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 LONDON 002542 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: ECON EINV PGOV UK
SUBJECT: PM BROWN DOES THE UNEXPECTED IN ADDRESSING 
ECONOMIC PROBLEMS 
 
LONDON 00002542  001.2 OF 002 
 
 
1. (SBU) Summary: The past 72-hours have seen dramatic 
political maneuvering in London to confront the deepening 
economic crisis.  The first surprise was PM Brown's 
appointment of his long-time nemesis, the highly 
controversial figure, Peter Mandelson as business secretary, 
followed by the creation of a 17-member National Economic 
Council. Both measures are energetic steps to address the 
crisis, but also a reinforcement of Brown and Chancellor 
Alistair Darling's recent warnings of the magnitude of the 
crisis. UK officials publicly expressed satisfaction with the 
outcome of the Paris October 4th, G4 meeting.  However, 
Germany's October 5 announcement of a purported blanket 
guarantee of bank deposits, following a similar step by 
Ireland early last week, caught UK officials off-guard, and 
they  are now scrambling to adopt urgent measures to shore up 
the financial system. With the London Stock Exchange down 
five percent in morning trading on October 6, adoption of 
these pressure is even more pressing. Among steps under 
consideration are a taxpayer-funded recapitalization of banks 
and a broader government guarantee of bank deposits.  End 
Summary. 
 
Mandelson's appointment 
----------------------- 
 
2. (SBU) Mandelson's return to London, after three years in 
Brussels as Trade Commissioner, sent shockwaves throughout 
the political community.  Brown and Mandelson have long been 
at odds with each other, and had reportedly not been on 
speaking terms until recently.  Beyond personality 
differences, Brown, when Chancellor of the Exchequer, and 
Mandelson, then business secretary in the Blair government, 
often clashed over the direction of economic policy. 
Mandelson's appointment has been called his political 
resurrection by some political pundits. Mandelson, the 
once-disgraced politician forced to resign twice after 
charges of impropriety, is being heralded as a savior, they 
say, charged with helping to restore faith and confidence in 
the UK economic system.  Mandelson will join Chancellor 
Darling, and 15 others, as members of the newly-created 
National Economic Council. (Note: Mandelson did not attend 
the inaugural session of the NEC. According to press reports, 
he was rushed to the hospital with kidney stones the morning 
of the 6th. End Note.) 
 
3. (SBU) Dubbed by the media as a &War Council," the NEC, 
which met for the first time October 6, is charged with 
assessing and responding to the implications and the 
challenges of the global economic crisis and the latest 
developments in the commodities markets, according to a HMG 
press release.  On a longer-term scale, it is also intended 
to deal with energy supplies, employment needs, and small 
business creation. 
 
4. (SBU) Rather than having time to assess the crisis, 
however, the NEC is in reaction mode after weekend events in 
other EU member states.  Germany's purported announcement of 
a blanket guarantee of its banks, deposits, and Denmark's 
decision to the same (and Ireland's earlier in the week), has 
upped the pressure on the HMG to take measures that would 
stave off any capital flight from London to markets with a 
higher government deposit guarantee.  While the UK raised 
government guarantees from 35,000 to 50,000 just last week, 
the amount likely will be raised further to counterbalance 
the measures taken by Germany and the others. (On October 6, 
according to the press, German Chancellor Merkel backtracked 
a bit, clarifying that she made a political commitment that 
no German savers would lose money, but did not expressly 
state that all deposits were guaranteed.) 
 
UK Rescue Plan 
-------------- 
 
5. (SBU) Just two weeks ago, the HMG insisted that no 
wide-ranging bailout package was under consideration. 
However, even before this weekend's events, HMT and BOE 
officials were starting to put together elements of a 
financial support package. After the FTSE fell five percent 
in the morning of October 6, to its lowest level in almost 
four years, the need for a rescue package heightened as the 
market was not reassured by the G4 talks over the weekend. 
 
6. (SBU) UK authorities are focusing primarily on both the 
liquidity of banks and their capital.  The BOE, in addition 
to conducting U.S. dollar-denominated auctions, is expanding 
the collateral accepted under BOE's liquidity operations.  UK 
authorities are also considering, in extremis, a 
 
LONDON 00002542  002.2 OF 002 
 
 
taxpayer-funded recapitalization of UK banks, perhaps through 
the issuance of preference shares, and the provision of 
official funds as capital backstop for ailing banks.  The 
government probably will introduce a new banking reform bill 
this week, which will replace the emergency legislation that 
allowed its interventions in Northern Rock and Bradford and 
Bingley. 
 
7. (SBU) The Chancellor has ruled out any interest rate 
intervention and rejected calls to temporarily suspend the 
Bank of England's independence, during a BBC interview on 
October 5.  Vince Cable, the Treasury spokesman for the 
Liberal Democrats, had urged the Chancellor to "clear the 
road" for large interest rates cuts by suspending the 
Monetary Policy Committee's mandate to keep CPI below two 
percent.  Darling responded, saying that HMG needs to be 
flexible with public finances, and that he will outline, 
during a speech on October 8, how governments ought to react 
to the global shock.  It is widely anticipated that Darling 
will  relax the government's fiscal rules, which limit public 
debt to 40 percent of GDP, during his pre-budget report later 
this month. 
 
EU Coordination 
--------------- 
 
8. (SBU) Publicly, UK officials expressed satisfaction with 
the Paris October 4, G4 discussions.  Prior to this weekend's 
meeting, UK officials told us that they were skeptical that a 
coordinated European meeting was possible, and even 
questioned if it was desirable.  The quick action to bail out 
Fortis showed that that individual member states were capable 
of responding to the crisis in an adequate manner, they said. 
 They did express outrage, though, at Ireland's unilateral 
action to guarantee deposits of six Irish banks, and argued 
that it was contrary to EU rules against national 
discrimination and perhaps state aid. 
 
 
 
 
Visit London's Classified Website: 
http://www.intelink.sgov.gov/wiki/Portal:Unit ed_Kingdom 
 
LeBaron