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Viewing cable 08DUBLIN571, IRELAND'S 2009 BUDGET: PUNTING THE PROBLEM DOWN

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
08DUBLIN571 2008-10-15 16:37 2011-07-22 00:00 CONFIDENTIAL Embassy Dublin
VZCZCXRO6416
PP RUEHFL RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHROV RUEHSR
DE RUEHDL #0571/01 2891637
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 151637Z OCT 08
FM AMEMBASSY DUBLIN
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 9511
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEHBL/AMCONSUL BELFAST PRIORITY 0811
RUEATRS/TREASURY WASHDC PRIORITY
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 DUBLIN 000571 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/15/2018 
TAGS: ECON EFIN PREL PGOV EI
SUBJECT: IRELAND'S 2009 BUDGET: PUNTING THE PROBLEM DOWN 
THE ROAD 
 
REF: DUBLIN 556 
 
DUBLIN 00000571  001.2 OF 003 
 
 
Classified By: CDA Robert J. Faucher.  Reasons 1.4 (b/d). 
 
Summary 
------- 
 
1. (C) Against the backdrop of a steadily worsening fiscal 
balance, the Irish government delivered its 2009 budget on 
October 14.  In his budget speech Minister of Finance Brian 
Lenihan emphasized that this budget required shared sacrifice 
from all Irish citizens.  The government expects a 6.5 
percent government deficit through a combination of a slowing 
rate of spending growth and a tax increase of about Euro 2 
billion.  Current spending will rise by 6.5 percent, mostly 
as a result of spending increases on social welfare programs, 
education, and health care.  Capital spending will fall 
slightly but is still high relative to other EU countries. 
The increase in taxes will come from a combination of 
increases in VAT and a special income levy expected to raise 
Euro 800 million, among other measures.  Private sector 
commentators were disappointed with the modest cut in the 
deficit and some were critical of what they saw as overly 
optimistic economic growth assumptions.  Thrust into the job 
amidst a collapsing economy, Lenihan's first budget was 
expected to be austere -- and it was.  However, it made no 
mention of the potential need to bail out its ailing banks 
(Reftel).  If it has to inject capital into the financial 
system, the budget will need to go back to the drawing board. 
 Ireland's economic plight has added another distraction (on 
top of the failed Lisbon Treaty referendum) for the 
government to deal with, which may result in less focus on 
issues that matter to the U.S.  End Summary. 
 
Lenihan Delivers Austere Budget 
------------------------------- 
 
2. (U) On October 14, Finance Minister Brian Lenihan 
delivered his 2009 budget speech to the Irish parliament. 
This was his first such speech as Minister and comes during 
Ireland's worst economic crisis in a generation.  In it, he 
said that Ireland finds itself in "one of the most difficult 
and uncertain times in living memory" and called for shared 
sacrifice.  He emphasized that the most vulnerable in society 
will be protected and took steps designed to assure the 
global business community that Ireland will remain a good 
place to do business.  Lenihan forecasted that the government 
deficit will be 6.5 percent of GDP in 2009 (it stood at a 
surplus of 0.5 percent in 2007) and that current spending 
will rise by 6.5 percent in 2009, while tax revenue will rise 
by Euro 2 billion.  He based these projections on the 
assumptions that GDP will fall by 0.8 percent in 2009 and 
that inflation will be 2.5 percent. 
 
Key Revenue Measures 
-------------------- 
 
3. (U) The key revenue measures in the 2009 Irish Budget are 
as follows: 
 
-- A one percent levy on income up to Euro 100,000 and two 
percent over Euro 100,000. 
-- Value-added Tax (VAT) to increase from 20 to 21.5 percent. 
-- Capital gains tax to increase from 20 to 22 percent. 
-- The maximum rate of stamp duty on non-residential property 
reduced from nine to six percent. 
-- Medical cards for people over 70 will be means tested and 
anyone not qualifying will receive a cash grant. 
-- Automatic entitlement to child benefit to be reviewed. 
-- Mortgage interest relief to be extended for first time 
buyers but reduced for non-first time buyers. 
-- Sin taxes increased: 50 cents more for a pack of 
cigarettes and a bottle of wine. 
-- Increases in motor vehicle taxes (by four to five percent 
depending on type of car) and gas tax (eight cents per liter). 
-- Air travel tax of Euro 10 per passenger for journeys of 
over 300 kilometers. 
 
Key Expenditure Measures 
------------------------ 
 
4. (U) The key expenditure measures in the 2009 Irish Budget 
are as follows: 
 
-- The number of state agencies to be reduced by 41. 
-- Euro 70 million cut in transport infrastructure 
expenditures. 
-- Increased spending on social welfare (up 8.4 percent), 
education and science (up Euro 308 million), and health (up 
Euro 385 million). 
 
DUBLIN 00000571  002.2 OF 003 
 
 
-- Child benefit age limit reduced to 17 years of age from 18 
beginning in 2010. 
-- State pension to rise by Euro 7 per week. 
 
The Government "Flunked" 
------------------------ 
 
5. (C) The main opposition party, Fine Gael, joined in the 
chorus of criticism of the government's budget plan.  Andrew 
McDowell, economic advisor to the party, told Econoff that 
the government "flunked the challenge of reducing borrowing 
and day-to-day spending and instead focused on maintaining 
capital spending."  He continued to say that the budget will 
make a bad situation worse and that the government missed an 
opportunity to engage in real public sector reform.  Like 
others we spoke to, he believes that the government's 
forecasts for less borrowing in 2010 and 2011 are based on 
"unrealistic projections and assumptions."  In October 14 
comments, Richard Bruton, Fine Gael's finance spokesperson, 
said, "today's Euro 2.0 billion in tax hikes and another Euro 
2.0 billion in cutbacks in vital infrastructure programs 
threaten to turn the current Irish recession into a sustained 
depression." 
 
Economists Disappointed Too 
--------------------------- 
 
6. (C) Local private-sector economists were disappointed with 
the government's budget-balancing effort.  Econoff spoke to 
Jim Power, chief economist at Friends First, who described 
the budget as "savage."  He felt that the bulk of the 
adjustment should have come from paring current spending 
rather than through tax increases.  He worries that the 
income levy will exacerbate the downward pressure on 
disposable incomes, which will inhibit consumer spending and 
lead to a further contraction of the economy.  Like other 
local economists, Power believes the growth forecasts the 
government is using are "overly optimistic" and that, under 
his assumptions, a 10 percent (vice 6.5 percent) deficit is 
possible next year.  He thinks the government may have to 
resort to a "mini-budget" early next year to revise spending 
and revenue plans if its assumptions turn out to be wrong. 
 
7. (C) Power worried that the government ignored two looming 
problems: the decade-long run-up in public sector pay and the 
possibility that the government may need to inject funds into 
the ailing Irish banking system.  On the latter, he is 
skeptical of the government's official line that they do not 
foresee a need to "re-capitalize" the banking system.  Power 
thinks such a move is "a real possibility."  On public sector 
pay, he believes the government just postponed the inevitable 
by not making a serious effort at cutting government staff 
levels.  This will need to be addressed next year or the year 
after, he predicted.  Power lamented the fact that the 
government had not controlled spending over the last seven 
years.  If it had, he said, then they would now be able to 
pursue an expansionary fiscal policy (more spending), which 
would help lift the economy out of recession. 
 
The "Social Partners" View 
-------------------------- 
 
8. (C) Business and labor representatives note that the 
government will have to walk a fine line in order to put its 
fiscal house in order but not tip the economy further into 
recession.  Danny McCoy, Director of Policy at the Irish 
Business and Employers Confederation, said that the budget 
situation is "not as bad as it seems" but that the trick for 
government is how best to "ride the wave" back to the top of 
the economic cycle.  He said that as the Irish economy stalls 
the government's fiscal stance should be expansionary (more 
spending).  However, this is not possible given the already 
large budget deficit.  John Sweeney, economic advisor to the 
trade union ICTU, added that members in his union were most 
concerned about the tax increases (VAT and the income levy) 
for those "who can least afford them." 
 
The Viewpoint Outside Dublin 
---------------------------- 
 
9. (C) At the local and county level, senior officials are 
preparing for a round of belt-tightening.  Although generally 
enthusiastic about the economic prospects for his county, 
Conn Murray, Louth County Manager, said that less spending at 
the national level will adversely affect Louth.  In 
particular, he foresees potentially cutbacks in "soft" 
infrastructure like community centers and social programs for 
poorer segments of society.  Michael Walsh, Waterford City 
Manager, repeated these concerns and added that cutbacks in 
capital infrastructure projects will do the most damage in 
 
DUBLIN 00000571  003.2 OF 003 
 
 
his constituency.  Unlike Louth which is situated between 
Dublin and Belfast, Waterford is in a part of Ireland that 
has "probably benefited the least from the strong economic 
growth" over the past two decades.  New roads are needed to 
provide better connections with Dublin and, he hopes, renewed 
prospects for growth. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
10. (C) This was indeed a tough budget.  The criticism from 
the political opposition is predictable.  After all, Fine 
Gael has been trying to pin the blame for "losing the 
economy" on Prime Minister (and former Finance Minister) 
Brian Cowen since the Irish economy began unraveling.  What 
is telling, though, is the almost unanimous disappointment 
from other people we spoke to and from commentators in the 
media.  Some jokingly -- we hope -- asked us how they could 
get U.S green cards.  The main complaint is that the 
government focused far too heavily on the revenue side at a 
time when the Irish economy can ill-afford a slowdown in 
private-sector consumption.  To be fair, the government is 
not in a position to stimulate the economy.  However, some 
here worry that not only is the government shying away from 
making hard choices on public sector reform but that it 
underappreciates the woes facing the Irish banking system. 
If the government has to inject capital into the financial 
system to save the banks, then the numbers announced 
yesterday will need to be recast.  In addition, Ireland's 
economic plight has added another distraction (on top of the 
failed Lisbon Treaty referendum) for the government to deal 
with, which may result in less focus on issues that matter to 
the U.S. 
FAUCHER