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Viewing cable 08DUBLIN569, IRELAND UNLIKELY TO RESOLVE LISBON TREATY

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
08DUBLIN569 2008-10-15 08:54 2011-07-22 00:00 CONFIDENTIAL Embassy Dublin
VZCZCXRO5973
PP RUEHAG RUEHROV
DE RUEHDL #0569/01 2890854
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 150854Z OCT 08
FM AMEMBASSY DUBLIN
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 9508
INFO RUCNMEM/EU MEMBER STATES PRIORITY
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 DUBLIN 000569 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/15/2018 
TAGS: PREL PGOV EI
SUBJECT: IRELAND UNLIKELY TO RESOLVE LISBON TREATY 
REJECTION BEFORE JUNE 2009 EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT ELECTION 
 
REF: A. DUBLIN 513 
     B. DUBLIN 389 & PREVIOUS 
 
Classified By: Charge Robert J. Faucher; Reasons 1.4 (B) and (D). 
 
------- 
Summary 
------- 
 
1.  (C) Ireland will tell the European Council on October 15 
that it is not ready to resolve its rejection of the Lisbon 
Treaty.  Irish political leaders believe that the European 
Council will give it until the December meeting to reflect 
further on the way forward in resolving the crisis.  Minister 
for European Affairs Dick Roche has told us that a second 
Irish referendum will likely be necessary, but that the Irish 
don't want to revisit the Treaty until after the June 2009 
local and European Parliament elections.  Roche is worried 
that Ireland could end up in some sort of periphery status in 
a "two-tier" EU, if France and Germany decide to drive EU 
reform forward in spite of Ireland.  End summary. 
 
------------- 
Lisbon Treaty 
------------- 
 
2.  (C) EMBOFFs and EUR/WE Office Director Pamela Spratlen 
reviewed the Lisbon Treaty referendum defeat with Dick Roche 
(Member of Parliament and Minister for European Affairs), 
Senator Eugene Regan (Fine Gael), Professor Brigid Laffan 
(Principal, University College Dublin, College of Human 
Sciences), Jill Donoghue (Research Director, International 
Institute for European Affairs) and Rory Montgomery 
(Political Director, Department of Foreign Affairs) on 
October 7-8.  Roche, who will accompany Irish Prime Minister 
Brian Cowen to the European Council, October 15-16, to report 
on Ireland's proposals for a way forward following the defeat 
of the Lisbon Treaty referendum on June 12, 2008 (Ref B), 
said that a second referendum would probably be necessary, 
but declared that such a referendum would not occur until the 
autumn of 2009 at the earliest, echoing recent analyses in 
the press of a number of political commentators.  Reasons for 
the delay, in Roche's view, were a need to respect the 
voters' 'No' decision on June 12; a need to allow time for 
the government and EU to craft a coherent 'Yes' message; and 
wish to keep the issue of the Lisbon Treaty separate from 
local and European Parliament elections in June 2009. 
 
3.  (C) Roche indicated that the Prime Minister's message at 
the October European Council meeting would include a read-out 
on the results of the government-funded research study into 
the reasons for the Treaty's defeat, which was completed in 
September (Ref A).  Roche said that Cowen would inform the 
European Council of the formation of a new select 
parliamentary sub-committee of the Foreign Affairs Committee 
that would study the government's response to the rejection 
of the Treaty referendum and Ireland's future in the EU. 
Roche added that no decision on how to proceed would be made 
until the sub-committee finished its deliberations, scheduled 
for early December).  Cowen, said Roche, would also tell the 
European Council that Ireland needed further time for 
reflection and would remind the European Council that the 
views of the Irish voter must be respected.  The end result, 
predicted Roche, would be a decision of the European Council 
to defer further discussion of the future of the Lisbon 
Treaty until its December 2008 meeting. 
 
4.  (C) Montgomery noted that French (and EU) President 
Nicolas Sarkozy had already been informed by the Prime 
Minister that during the October European Council meeting the 
Irish would make a presentation that would not contain any 
proposals for the way forward.  He indicated that Sarkozy 
accepted this.  However, Montgomery predicted, Sarkozy would 
likely push hard for Irish proposals during the December 
European Council meeting; the last meeting of the French 
Presidency.  Although the Irish Attorney General is reviewing 
possible ways to bring parts of the Lisbon Treaty into force 
without a referendum, Montgomery characterized such efforts 
as "pie in the sky" and said that the only legal and 
political solution to the dilemma appeared to be a second 
referendum -- which would likely include "opt-outs" from 
aspects of the Lisbon Treaty that were problematic for Irish 
voters.  Montgomery agreed that no referendum would be held 
until late in 2009. 
 
5.  (C) In the meantime, Irish experts are increasingly 
worried that a backlash may be building within the EU against 
Ireland as a result of its rejection of the Treaty. 
Donoghue, whose husband is the Irish Ambassador to Berlin, 
reported that anti-Irish sentiment seems to be growing in 
Germany.  She noted that some people see the Irish as being 
unappreciative of the great benefit realized from membership 
 
DUBLIN 00000569  002 OF 002 
 
 
in the EU over the years.  (Note: When Ireland joined the EU 
in 1973, it was the poorest member per capita.  It is now the 
second richest.  Since 1975, Ireland is estimated to have 
received 85 billion euro more from the EU than it has 
contributed.  End note.)  Montgomery reported some 
"bitterness and resentment" against Ireland in Europe, though 
he went on to say that Irish have not felt marginalized 
within the EU as a result of the vote ) at least so far. 
 
6.  (C) Roche, Donoghue, and Laffan went into some detail in 
discussing the outcome of the research study, highlighting 
that 40 percent of those who voted 'No' did so because they 
didn't understand the Treaty and that workers, women and 
youth voted predominantly 'No.'  Ironically, they noted, 70 
percent of the Irish say they have favorable views of the EU 
and support Ireland's membership.  Donoghue and Laffan 
pointed out that many voters rejected the treaty because they 
perceived it ) often incorrectly ) as having a negative 
impact on a single issue of concern, e.g., higher taxes, 
legalization of abortion, conscription of sons and brothers 
into a European army (which doesn't even exist), loss of 
neutrality, etc. 
 
------- 
Comment 
------- 
 
7.  (C) No one in Ireland has yet suggested a strategy for 
dealing with the rest of the EU at the European Council 
meeting in December.  Most likely, the Irish will ask for 
further time for reflection.  What the mood of the rest of 
the EU will be at that time is hard to predict (especially 
given the current world financial crisis), but there is 
clearly a divergence of purpose ) the Irish don't want to 
deal with the Lisbon Treaty for at least a year, or at least 
until after the June 2009 local and European Parliament 
elections.  However, as Montgomery pointed out, much of the 
rest of the EU (and especially the French and Germans) want 
the Treaty finalized before the June 2009 European Parliament 
election so that election, and the subsequent selection of 
the new College of Commissioners, can be conducted on the 
basis of the reforms in the Lisbon Treaty rather than on the 
basis of the existing Nice Treaty.  However, Dick Roche 
admitted that it was untenable for a single small member 
state with less than one percent of the population of the EU 
to hold up European progress for long.  While the Irish 
government would abhor a "two-tier" EU that leaves Ireland in 
some sort of periphery status, Roche acknowledged that this 
could happen. 
 
8.  (U) This message has been cleared by EUR/WE Director 
Pamela Spratlen. 
FAUCHER