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Viewing cable 08BASRAH82, BASRA REFERENDUM PROCESS MOVING FORWARD, MAY HAVE MINOR

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
08BASRAH82 2008-10-16 14:50 2011-08-24 16:30 UNCLASSIFIED REO Basrah
VZCZCXRO7248
RR RUEHDA RUEHDE RUEHIHL RUEHKUK
DE RUEHBC #0082 2901450
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 161450Z OCT 08
FM REO BASRAH
TO RUEHGB/AMEMBASSY BAGHDAD 0387
RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 0804
INFO RUCNRAQ/IRAQ COLLECTIVE
RUEHBC/REO BASRAH 0841
UNCLAS BASRAH 000082 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV KDEM IZ
SUBJECT: BASRA REFERENDUM PROCESS MOVING FORWARD, MAY HAVE MINOR 
IMPACT ON PROVINCIAL ELECTIONS 
 
1.  (SBU) Summary:  During an October 5 visit to the REO, 
Governor Wa'eli outlined progress made in his campaign to hold a 
referendum to form a Basra Regional Government.  Wa'eli said 
that a referendum could be held no earlier than March 2009 and 
that it would not interfere with provincial elections, scheduled 
for January 31.  In a follow-up meeting with the British Consul 
General, the Governorate Electoral Office (GEO) Director 
asserted that his office could handle concurrent referendum and 
provincial election registration procedures. End summary. 
 
Status of Referendum 
-------------------- 
 
2.  (SBU) In his update to the REO Director on the Basra 
referendum campaign, Governor Wa'eli confirmed that 28,000 
signatures were collected, equivalent to over 2% of the 
electorate. (Note: Approximately 25,000 signatures are needed to 
meet the threshold of 2%. End note.) The next step is for the 
GEO to compare the signatures against the list of registered 
voters.  This last step was supposed to have taken place in the 
past week, but has not yet been completed.  GEO contacts have 
subsequently indicated to the REO that some of the signatures 
appear to be invalid and/or repetitive; confirmation will not 
necessarily be swift. 
 
3.  (U) According to Wa'eli, once GEO confirms the 2%, the 
referendum staff would be given another 6 to 8 weeks to get an 
additional 8% worth of signatures.  After the full 10% is 
confirmed by GEO and forwarded to the Independent High Electoral 
Commission (IHEC) in Baghdad, the request for a referendum would 
be referred to the Council of Ministers and a decision from the 
Prime Minister would be required within seven days.  After that, 
preparations to hold the referendum would take an additional 
three months.  Wa'eli estimated that March 2009 would be the 
earliest possible date for a referendum. 
 
4. (SBU) In his efforts to show broad-based Basrawi enthusiasm 
for the referendum, Governor Wa'eli told the REO Director that a 
support committee has been formed, including 12 political 
parties, Basra social and influential figures, NGOs, tribal 
leaders, and Sunni minority representatives. 
 
GEO Director Confident 
---------------------- 
 
5. (SBU) In a meeting the following day with the British Consul 
General, GEO Director Hazim Joda said that the referendum and 
provincial elections could take place and be handled 
simultaneously.  He agreed with the Governor's assessment that 
the referendum, if it takes place, would most likely be held 
after the provincial elections.  He conceded that concurrent 
referendum and provincial election registration process might 
place a strain on GEO resources, but was not overly concerned. 
 
6.  (SBU) Comment:  While the idea of making Basra a region is 
popular with Basrawis - as Wa'eli puts it, Basrawis have been 
asking for this since 1921 - not everyone agrees.  Some feel 
that the current government structure would suffice if the 
contentious relationship between the central and provincial 
governments were to improve.  It is far from clear that Wa'eli 
has the ability to gather 125,000 signatures or acquire final 
certification from GEO, IHEC, and the Prime Minister's Office. 
If the referendum registration process goes forward during the 
provincial election campaign, it may not derail the elections 
but will likely detract some of the voters' attention.  The 
provincial elections may, however, affect the referendum as its 
legitimacy could be questioned, given that Wa'eli's outgoing 
governing team put the process forth.  End comment. 
 
NEGRON