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Viewing cable 08BANGKOK3229, THAI STOCKS PLUNGE. AGAIN.

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
08BANGKOK3229 2008-10-28 10:03 2011-08-25 00:00 UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Embassy Bangkok
VZCZCXRO6431
PP RUEHCHI RUEHDT RUEHHM RUEHNH
DE RUEHBK #3229 3021003
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 281003Z OCT 08
FM AMEMBASSY BANGKOK
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 4843
RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RUCPDOC/DEPT OF COMMERCE WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
INFO RUEHCHI/AMCONSUL CHIANG MAI PRIORITY 5766
RUCNASE/ASEAN MEMBER COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
UNCLAS BANGKOK 003229 
 
STATE FOR EAP/MLS AND EB 
STATE PASS TO USTR 
TREASURY FOR OASIA 
COMMERCE FOR EAP/MAC/OKSA 
SINGAPORE FOR FINATT BAKER 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: EFIN ECON EINV ETRD TH
SUBJECT: THAI STOCKS PLUNGE. AGAIN. 
 
Sensitive But Unclassified.  For Official Use Only. 
 
1.  (U) The Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) dropped approximately 
10.5 percent October 27, prompting an automatic 30 minute halt in 
trading for the second time in one month, and only the third time 
since the circuit-breaker mechanism was implemented in 1975.  The 
main SET index closed at 387.43, down more than 54 percent since 
January and at its lowest level since May 2003.  Energy and banking 
stocks led the sell-off, in which foreign investors reportedly sold 
approximately $64 million in shares. 
 
2.  (U) The Thai press reported October 28 Deputy Prime Minister 
Olarn Chaipravat's comments that yesterday's sell-off was due to 
continued selling by foreign investors.  Olarn stated that foreign 
holdings of Thai shares now stand at approximately $2.5 billion. 
 
3.  (SBU) The Executive Director of a financial services company 
told us that Olarn's comments directed at foreign investors are not 
off the mark.  Thai investors have been largely "sitting on the 
sidelines" the past few years due to Thailand's political 
uncertainty.  In the meantime, much foreign investment in the SET 
has come by way of hedge funds that are now unwinding investments, 
turning stocks into cash for their clients.  As such, he argued, 
yesterday's sell-off had more to do with global financial stresses 
than with Thailand's domestic market situation. 
 
4.  (SBU) The Vice President and Head of Research of another 
financial firm concurred on the role of foreign investors, but also 
noted other reasons for the sell-off, namely: a panic over a 
spill-over into Asia of the U.S. financial crisis, declining 
commodity prices, and the lay-offs that will occur from an 
anticipated closing of factories due to decreased demand for 
exports.  She pointed to a forecast by the Federation of Thai 
Industries that Thailand could see one million layoffs due to 
weakening demand domestically and abroad.  (Note: she also believes 
foreign holdings of Thai shares run higher than Deputy Prime 
Minister Olarn's estimate, at approximately $4.5 billion.  End 
Note.) 
 
5.  (SBU) Comment: With total SET capitalization estimated (after 
yesterday's closing) at USD 91 billion, it is hard to argue that the 
sell-off by foreign investors, if only USD 64 million, was the cause 
of the plunge.  It is not clear how good the data are with regard to 
foreign participation in the market.  What is clear is that for many 
observers, foreign investors seem to a target of blame for the 
market's collapse.  End Comment.