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Viewing cable 08BANGKOK3188, Thai Finance Minister says Baht should be Weaker

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
08BANGKOK3188 2008-10-22 09:12 2011-08-25 00:00 UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Embassy Bangkok
VZCZCXRO1217
PP RUEHCHI RUEHDT RUEHHM RUEHNH
DE RUEHBK #3188 2960912
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 220912Z OCT 08
FM AMEMBASSY BANGKOK
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 4789
RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RUCPDOC/DEPT OF COMMERCE WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
INFO RUEHCHI/AMCONSUL CHIANG MAI PRIORITY 5736
RUCNASE/ASEAN MEMBER COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
UNCLAS BANGKOK 003188 
 
STATE FOR EAP/MLS AND EB 
STATE PASS TO USTR 
TREASURY FOR OASIA 
COMMERCE FOR EAP/MAC/OKSA 
SINGAPORE FOR FINATT BAKER 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: EFIN ECON EINV ETRD TH
SUBJECT: Thai Finance Minister says Baht should be Weaker 
 
Sensitive But Unclassified.  For Official Use Only. 
 
Ref: Singapore 1127 
 
1.  (SBU) Summary: Thai Finance Minister Suchart told the Ambassador 
October 21 that he would prefer a "weaker" baht to promote exports, 
given Thailand's high dependence on export growth to keep its 
economy expanding.  He also has proposed extending deposit 
protection guarantees to maintain investor confidence, postponing 
the implementation of tighter banking standards to free-up bank 
lending, and lower interest rates and increased government spending 
to boost economic growth.  The Bank of Thailand (BoT), which would 
have to concur in the finance policy moves, has publicly opposed 
FinMin Suchart's proposals.  End Summary. 
2.  (SBU) Comment:   The Ministry of Finance, and new Finance 
Minister Suchart in particular, has had a long-running battle with 
BoT, Thailand's central bank, over policy issues.  Suchart, then the 
Deputy Minister of Finance, even suggested last August that BoT 
governor Tarisa should step down if the BoT could not support 
Finance Ministry policy.  Under Bank of Thailand Act, however, the 
Bank, not the Ministry, has the say on baht policy and interest 
rates and we have no indication that Gov. Tarisa is likely to back 
down.  End comment. 
 
3.  (SBU) The Ambassador and Economic Counselor met October 21 with 
Minister of Finance Dr. Suchart Thada-Thanrongvech to get a read-out 
of his visit to Washington for the IMF/World Bank meetings the 
previous week.  FinMin Suchart said that his trip to Washington went 
well and he appreciated his meetings with USG officials, but the 
conversation quickly turned to the domestic scene in Bangkok. 
 
4.  (SBU) The day of the meeting, the local press gave prominent 
coverage to the economic policy conflicts between FinMin Suchart and 
Bank of Thailand Governor Dr. Tarisa Watanagase.  FinMin Suchart 
dismissed the controversy as the press making more of the story than 
was actually the case.  However, he then made the point that as 
Finance Minister he has a responsibility to speak to the economic 
issues facing the country.  Noting that economic growth was likely 
to drop to four percent, or lower, in the next year, he pointed out 
that Thailand's heavy dependence on exports for economic growth made 
a looming recession in the United States and Europe particularly 
worrisome.  Exports are 60 percent of the Thai GDP, and have 
accounted for the bulk of economic growth in recent years.  With 
domestic consumption and investment expected to be flat, a drop in 
exports would put a tremendous burden on the government to make up 
the difference through additional fiscal spending if the economy is 
to grow.  "I worry about rising unemployment," the FinMin said. 
 
5.  (SBU) Facing this situation, the FinMin asked, "How can I not 
speak out about the value of the baht?  I would prefer that the baht 
be weaker" to make exports more competitive.  He then went on to 
explain that his econometric modeling (Suchart was earlier a 
university professor) showed that a five percent drop in the value 
of the baht would result in a ten percent increase in exports.  When 
the Ambassador asked whether this might not lead to inflation, 
FinMin Suchart explained that his model showed that the inflation 
effect would be minimal. 
 
6.  (SBU) FinMin Suchart also said that to deal with the impact of 
the world financial crisis, Thailand should also consider: 1) 
extending the existing blanket government guarantee of bank deposits 
an additional three years to maintain the confidence of depositors 
(see reftel), 2) postpone the implementation of Basel II capital 
standards, fearing that early imposition could restrict bank 
lending, 3) increase government spending, and 4) lower interest 
rates.  All of these ideas, except the fiscal stimulus, have been 
publicly refuted by BoT Governor Tarisa.  FinMin Suchart told the 
Ambassador that his intention is simply to "get these ideas out for 
discussion."