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Viewing cable 08MEXICO2917, MEXICO MARKET REACTION - SEPT. 29

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
08MEXICO2917 2008-09-30 22:19 2011-08-25 00:00 UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Embassy Mexico
VZCZCXRO5545
PP RUEHCD RUEHGD RUEHHO RUEHMC RUEHNG RUEHNL RUEHRD RUEHRS RUEHTM
DE RUEHME #2917 2742219
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 302219Z SEP 08
FM AMEMBASSY MEXICO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 3430
INFO RUEHXC/ALL US CONSULATES IN MEXICO COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHINGTON DC
RUCPDOC/DEPT OF COMMERCE WASHINGTON DC
RUEHC/DEPT OF LABOR WASHINGTON DC
UNCLAS MEXICO 002917 
 
SENSITIVE, SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR WHA/MEX, WHA/EPSC, EB/IFD/OMA 
USDOC FOR 4320/ITA/MAC/WH/ONAFTA/GERI WORD 
USDOC FOR ITS/TD/ENERGY DIVISION 
TREASURY FOR IA 
STATE PASS TO USTR (EISSENSTAT/MELLE) 
STATE PASS TO FEDERAL RESERVE (CARLOS ARTETA) 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: ECON EINV EFIN PGOV MX
 
SUBJECT: MEXICO MARKET REACTION - SEPT. 29 
 
1. (U) The Mexican stock market's index, the IPC, fell 6.4% on 
Monday, September 29 and the inter-bank Peso depreciated to 11.04 
pesos to the dollar and to 11.15 pesos to the dollar in retail 
markets.  President Calderon instructed Finance Minister Carstens to 
follow the markets' development very closely and to implement 
measures if necessary.  The risk premium closed at 261 basis points, 
the highest since 2003. The Mexican Stock Market's Chairman, 
Guillermo Prieto, asked investors to avoid panic from gripping the 
market, because markets could significantly recover after the U.S. 
Congress approves the plan, hopefully this week.  Under Secretary 
Werner also advised investors to be calm. 
 
GOM: "Mexican finances are solid" 
-------------------------------- 
2. (U) In a media interview September 30, Finance Under Secretary 
Alejandro Werner said that Mexican financial institutions were solid 
as their reserves and capitalization accounted for 1.5 times the 
current overdue payments.  With regard to the deterioration of 
consumer credit, he said banks have already taken the necessary 
steps to reduce lending, to increase their controls to issue credit 
cards, and recover overdue payments.  He said Mexican businesses had 
obtained financing mostly from the domestic institutions.  However, 
the Bank of Mexico Deputy Governor Guillermo Guemez said yesterday 
that larger companies in Mexico will feel the effects of the credit 
crunch because most of their financing was obtained abroad. 
 
Impact of U.S. Economic Difficulties 
------------------------------------- 
3. (U) On the impact of U.S. economic difficulties on Mexico, Guemez 
said that obviously Mexico's economic growth will have to be revised 
downward, but that unlike other crises, Mexico is better prepared to 
face the current situation.  The challenge for the government, he 
said, will be to strengthen the internal mechanisms that stimulate 
the economy, such as making public spending more effective, in 
particular in infrastructure and construction, and granting 
financing, via development banks to the agricultural sector, to 
SMEs, to housing and construction. 
 
4. (U) Adolfo Albo, chief economist at BBVA-Bancomer, the 
Spanish-owned bank, said yesterday that Mexico's construction and 
housing sector have already slowed down and suggested that they 
would probably not recover before the end of 2009.  Mexican tycoon 
Carlos Slim said this was the worse U.S. crisis since the Great 
Depression.  He and the Chairman of the Mexican Institute of Finance 
Executives recommended the government and the Congress revise the 
2009 federal budget, in particular revising the Mexican oil mix 
reference price and the expected 3% GDP growth downward.  Otherwise, 
the government might have to begin 2009 with some spending cuts. 
Slim said he said he supported the Bank of Mexico's monetary policy 
and that the most important thing right now was to watch over 
inflation to prevent rising poverty levels. 
GARZA 
 
 
 
 
 
.