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Viewing cable 08LUANDA704, MPLA SUSTAINS COMMANDING LEAD IN VOTE TALLY AS

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
08LUANDA704 2008-09-10 12:48 2011-08-25 00:00 UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Embassy Luanda
VZCZCXRO9690
PP RUEHBZ RUEHDU RUEHJO RUEHMR RUEHRN
DE RUEHLU #0704/01 2541248
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 101248Z SEP 08
FM AMEMBASSY LUANDA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 5019
INFO RUCNSAD/SOUTHERN AF DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY COLLECTIVE
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 LUANDA 000704 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM PHUM AO
SUBJECT: MPLA SUSTAINS COMMANDING LEAD IN VOTE TALLY AS 
MOST OPPOSITION PARTIES CONCEDE 
 
REF: LUANDA 00702 
 
1. (SBU) SUMMARY: The ruling MPLA has maintained its 
overwhelming lead as vote counting continues, with over 81 
percent of the vote as counting nears completion.  Eleven of 
the 13 opposition parties and coalitions have conceded 
defeat.  International observation missions have universally 
praised the wide voter turnout and peaceful nature of the 
elections, but remain divided on the degree to which these 
elections can be considered as credible and transparent.  The 
opposition parties, rapid acceptance of their defeat, 
however, lends credibility to the results.  END SUMMARY 
 
2. (SBU) As the counting of tendered ("special") and 
contested ballots continues, the MPLA has solidified its 
overwhelming victory at the polls, one which significantly 
changes the make-up of the incoming parliament. Under current 
trends, the Embassy projects the MPLA will win at least 79 of 
a possible 90 provincial seats and 110 of 130 national seats, 
for a total of about 190 of 220 seats in Parliament.  This is 
a large increase from the 129 seats the party won in the 1992 
elections.  UNITA is poised to win between 3 to 6 provincial 
seats and about 14 national seats; leaving it with a best 
case result of 20 seats, compared to the 70 seats it won in 
1992.  PRS is likely to add one seat to the 6 they won in 
1992, while the FNLA will hold on to only 2 of its 5 seats. 
A new coalition of smaller parties called Novo Democracia 
("New Democracy", or ND), performed well, and is likely to 
win one national seat.  Of the remaining contestants in the 
race, only the PDP-ANA has the possibility of winning one 
seat. 
 
3. (SBU) Most opposition parties have accepted their clear 
defeat at the polls.  Some simply recognized the outcome; 
others congratulated the MPLA.  Some parties, such as the 
PRS, used their statement to the press to urge the MPLA to 
govern in the interests of the people.  Several parties, 
including PDP-ANA, FpD, PAJOCA and PRD, apologized to their 
supporters for their parties' poor showing at the polls.  PRD 
President Luis dos Passos tendered his resignation in 
recognition of his party's poor performance. 
 
4. (SBU) The Embassy's statement on the election will be 
reported septel.  Other international observation missions 
unanimously expressed praise for the peaceful nature of the 
elections. Their statements offered suggested areas for 
improvement in the next electoral cycle: 
 
EU 
 
-- "Angola's first elections in 16 years were conducted in a 
calm and peaceful atmosphere nationwide." 
 
-- Elections are a "crucial step forwards democracy despite 
organizational weakness." 
 
-- Voters "turned out in large numbers and voted freely." 
 
-- Certain procedures, such as the handling of the voters 
list, were "inconsistently applied." 
 
SADC 
 
-- Congratulated the people of Angola for "peaceful, free, 
transparent, and credible elections which reflect the will of 
the people." 
 
-- In a four-page report that was generally positive, noted 
problems with impartial voter education, delays in publishing 
voter rolls, the "overwhelming advantage" of the ruling party 
on the state-controlled media, and the delays in opening the 
polls "as prescribed by law." 
 
AU 
 
-- The voting process was "peaceful and transparent." 
 
-- Called the non-accreditation of large numbers of 
civil-society observes, absence of voter rolls in polling 
station, failure to check voters against the voter register, 
late opening of polling stations, and late delivery of key 
materials "areas that need to be addressed." 
 
Pan-African Parliament 
 
-- "The vote counting was transparent" 
 
-- Recommend changes to the composition of the National 
Electoral Commission. 
 
-- Suggested the ruling party limit the influence of the 
 
LUANDA 00000704  002 OF 002 
 
 
power of the incumbency. 
 
The Community of Portuguese-Language Countries (CPLP) 
 
-- the elections were "free and transparent." 
 
Government of Portugal 
 
-- recognized the logistical difficulties 
 
-- "these elections are considered to have allowed the free 
expression of the will of the Angolan people." 
 
 
5. (SBU) COMMENT: Both international observers and opposition 
parties have widely commented on logistical and other flaws 
in the conduct of these elections; irregularities that raise 
legitimate concerns about the conduct of the election.  The 
opposition's ready acceptance of their defeat, combined with 
observer's conclusions that the election, despite its flaws, 
is credible, supports the legitimacy of the election results. 
 END COMMENT 
MOZENA