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Viewing cable 08LONDON2486, SCENESETTER FOR CODEL SHELBY'S OCTOBER 10-12 VISIT TO

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
08LONDON2486 2008-09-30 14:26 2011-08-25 00:00 UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Embassy London
VZCZCXRO5013
RR RUEHAG RUEHDF RUEHIK RUEHLZ RUEHROV
DE RUEHLO #2486/01 2741426
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 301426Z SEP 08
FM AMEMBASSY LONDON
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 9943
INFO RUCNMEM/EU MEMBER STATES COLLECTIVE
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 LONDON 002486 
 
H FOR CODEL SHELBY 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: ECON EFIN KTFN UK
SUBJECT: SCENESETTER FOR CODEL SHELBY'S OCTOBER 10-12 VISIT TO 
LONDON 
 
Summary 
------- 
 
1. (SBU) The UK economy is reeling from the effects of the global 
economic crisis, with housing prices falling even faster and further 
than in the United States. The UK economy continues to slide into 
recession with negative GDP growth forecast for the second semester 
of 2008.  Inflation, fueled by energy, food, and import prices, is 
projected to hit 5 percent. Prime Minister Brown has been personally 
engaged in trying to mitigate the effects on the UK economy and to 
hammer out global solutions.  Brown met with the President September 
26 to discuss the global economic crisis and appropriate U.S./UK 
government responses.  On the margins on the UN General Assembly 
Meeting in New York, Brown also met with various heads of state and 
leaders of the financial sector to explore options for intervention. 
 He has publicly called for the creation of an international 
financial watchdog, whose goals would be to increase transparency, 
improve cooperation with regulators, create better early-warning 
systems, and shore up credit-rating agencies duties. UK officials 
would be greatly interested in hearing the details of the U.S 
financial support package. 
 
2. (SBU) The bleak economic picture has weakened the embattled Prime 
Minister, who has seen his poll numbers drop significantly over the 
past year. The PM did however manage to reassert his leadership 
during the recent Labour Party Conference.  Labour received an 
immediate bounce from the annual event, with poll ratings jumping to 
31 percent from 17, while the Conservatives dropped from 50 to 41 
percent.  (The Conservative Party holds its Congress this week so 
Labour's gains might be short-lived.) As Chancellor, Brown imposed 
strict limits on deficit spending to control public debt, but Labour 
policies during the past ten years of economic growth now leave 
little room for fiscal stimulus without abandoning these limits. 
 
3. (SBU) The British government strongly supports U.S. 
anti-terrorist finance efforts, but has resource constraints and 
legal limitations which obstruct it from being as proactive as the 
USG would like. End Summary 
 
The Meeting with the President 
------------------------------ 
 
4. (SBU) PM Brown was to raise with the President his idea for an 
international financial watchdog, to be set up through an existing 
entity such as the G-20.  Brown attended the UN General Assembly in 
New York and gave a speech calling for coordinated international 
action to resolve the financial crisis.  While in New York, Brown 
discussed this and other ideas for a global response to the 
financial crisis with world leaders (Spain, Italy, EU, Australia, 
Brazil) and with Wall Street titans (George Soros, BlackRock, 
Blackstone.) So far it appears that Brown's proposals have not 
gained much traction. 
 
Difficult Times for PM Brown 
---------------------------- 
 
5.  (SBU) PM Gordon Brown appears to have successfully reasserted 
his leadership of the Labour Party and bought himself some time 
against possible leadership challengers following the Labour Party 
Fall Conference in Manchester September 20-24.  Reaction to Brown's 
September 23 speech, billed in advance as the "speech of his life," 
was well received by delegates in Manchester.  Attendees told 
Embassy London officials they thought the PM hit all the right notes 
and successfully managed to put the Conservative Party on the 
defensive going into its conference starting on September 29, 
especially over Tory lack of recent economic experience.  Although 
Brown has refused to comment publicly on a possible Cabinet 
reshuffle, media reports he could announce a new Cabinet lineup on 
October 2 or 3, just after the Tory Party conference ends. 
 
6.  (SBU) Although PM Gordon Brown has recently gained ground in the 
polls, he does not have nearly the latitude Tony Blair had to take 
on a major new foreign policy commitment or personally lead the UK 
public to support a difficult foreign policy decision such as a new 
commitment of UK troops abroad.  The British public is also very 
skeptical about new foreign commitments and uncertain about 
medium-term outcomes in Afghanistan.  Although the Iraq War has 
faded from the domestic political landscape with Blair's 
resignation, the war has almost no popular support.  Afghanistan is 
still considered the "good war" in comparison to Iraq, and UK 
military engagement has cross-party support in Parliament. 
Nonetheless, Afghanistan is also increasingly viewed in the UK media 
as a complicated, uncertain venture with no clear end, especially as 
British military deaths have spiked over the past year. 
 
The Financial Crisis in the UK 
------------------------------ 
 
7.  (SBU) The global financial crisis has reverberated in the UK, 
 
LONDON 00002486  002 OF 002 
 
 
with home prices having fallen about 11 percent since their peak, 
and inflation at a ten-year high.  Thousands of employees in the 
financial services sector have lost their jobs as a result of the 
crisis.  Because the UK financial service industry in recent years 
has provided around 20% of the UK government's tax revenues, the 
faltering financial market will significantly reduce the 
government's tax receipts. 
 
8.  (SBU) GDP growth in the UK was 0.0 per cent in the second 
quarter of 2008, the worst quarter in 16 years. Inflation hit 4.7% 
in August, and the Bank of England predicts it will rise to 5% by 
the end of the year. Employment numbers remain relatively stable, 
but unemployment has ticked up to 5.5%. The Bank of England is faced 
with the tough choice of combating inflation or attempting to spur 
economic growth. 
 
9.  (SBU) The PM and his economic team have been criticized for a 
perceived failure to address the concerns of the average citizen, 
and many have speculated that the PM is politically vulnerable.  The 
PM's speech to Labour party officials, in which he underscored that 
he was the right person to be at the helm during a financial crisis, 
has given him some breathing room to turn poll numbers around.  To 
date, the Labour Government has nationalized two large banks 
(Northern Rock and Bradford and Bingley), but has not proposed 
widespread structural support or reform measures to shore up the 
financial sector, though several smaller measures have been adopted. 
 BOE has supported dollar money markets through a recent $40 billion 
overnight facility.  The UK government followed the U.S. lead in 
banning the short-selling of stocks, and has created a liquidity 
scheme. 
 
10.  (U) The government gave its consent to Barclay's recently 
announced agreement to purchase HBOS, the UK's largest mortgage 
lender.  A year ago, such a merger would have been unthinkable on 
competition grounds, but the risk to the stability of the UK 
financial system posed by HBOS trumped competition rules.  To ensure 
that a Barclays/HBOS deal could be reached quickly, Secretary for 
Business, John Hutton, took the extraordinary step of announcing the 
government's intention to intervene "in the public interest" and 
override UK competition law.  A government intervention will require 
legislation, which will not be considered until Parliament resumes 
on October 6. 
 
UK Reaction to Events in the U.S. 
--------------------------------- 
 
11.  (SBU) The Labour government has been closely watching actions 
in Washington.  Senior Treasury officials told us approval of a 
financial support package in Washington was essential to calming the 
markets globally.  With Barclays and Lloyds having significant 
market share in the U.S., the eligibility of UK financial 
institutions to the proposed $700 billion facility was on PM Brown's 
agenda with President Bush.  On September 20, Brown said that he 
would seek support from the USG to have $8 billion returned to 
Lehman UK from Lehman New York, transferred on the eve of Lehman New 
York's collapse.  The PM has indicated that the money would be used 
to pay final salaries to UK-based employees. 
 
Terrorist Finance 
----------------- 
 
12.  (SBU) The UK remains our primary and most reliable ally on 
terrorist finance issues.  Our goals and ideals are very similar, 
and we openly share information and coordinate on individual 
designations and overall strategy.  The UK's domestic asset-freezing 
regime, however, has been challenged by the High Court (trial 
court), and HM Treasury has argued to maintain their system in the 
Court of Appeals.  A decision is due soon, and will assist the 
British government in determining their red-lines in modifying the 
EU's asset-freezing regime, which has also been partially challenged 
by a European Court of Justice decision.  Due to resource 
constraints, and concerns about legal challenges from increasingly 
assertive UK and European courts, the British government is not as 
proactive as the USG wishes.  They have prioritized their cases to 
those that have a direct effect on British soil, interests and/or UK 
citizens. 
 
TUTTLE