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Viewing cable 08LAPAZ1931, BOLIVIA: "TRANSFORMATION WITH VIOLENCE" MOST LIKELY

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
08LAPAZ1931 2008-09-09 16:18 2011-08-25 00:00 UNCLASSIFIED Embassy La Paz
VZCZCXRO8751
PP RUEHLMC
DE RUEHLP #1931/01 2531618
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 091618Z SEP 08
FM AMEMBASSY LA PAZ
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 8446
INFO RUEHAC/AMEMBASSY ASUNCION 8311
RUEHBO/AMEMBASSY BOGOTA 5667
RUEHBR/AMEMBASSY BRASILIA 9613
RUEHBU/AMEMBASSY BUENOS AIRES 6831
RUEHCV/AMEMBASSY CARACAS 3920
RUEHPE/AMEMBASSY LIMA 4213
RUEHMD/AMEMBASSY MADRID 4213
RUEHMN/AMEMBASSY MONTEVIDEO 5744
RUEHQT/AMEMBASSY QUITO 6539
RUEHSG/AMEMBASSY SANTIAGO 1277
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC
RHEBAAA/DEPT OF ENERGY WASHINGTON DC
RUEHUB/USINT HAVANA 1399
RUEHLMC/MILLENNIUM CHALLENGE CORP
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 LA PAZ 001931 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL BL ASEC PTER
SUBJECT: BOLIVIA: "TRANSFORMATION WITH VIOLENCE" MOST LIKELY 
 
- - - - 
Summary 
- - - - 
 
1.  (SBU)  The largest daily newspaper in La Paz ran a three 
page story over the weekend based on interviews with 
political figures.  The article identified five possible 
outcomes to the current political stalemate from "Dialogue 
and Peaceful Transformation" to "Civil War."  According to 
the panel, "Transformation with Violence" is the most likely 
scenario.  On the heels of Evo's 67 percent victory in the 
August 10 recall vote, politicians from the ruling Movement 
Toward Socialism (MAS) were the most optimistic, indicating 
that the popular will would eventually prevail and bring 
national unity.  Figures from the opposition were more 
pessimistic and resigned to the inevitability of political 
violence.  However, only one senator from the eastern state 
of Beni thought that civil war was the most likely outcome. 
- - - - - - - - 
The Survey Says 
- - - - - - - - 
 
2.  (SBU)  The daily newspaper La Razon identified five 
possible outcomes of the current political impasse in 
Bolivia: Dialogue and Peaceful Transformation, Non-Resolution 
and Permanent Conflict, Transformation with Violence, 
Confrontation, or Civil War.  The most likely scenario, 
according to a panel of political figures was Transformation 
with Violence with an average score of 5.2 on a scale of 
1-10.  The second most likely resolution was "Dialogue and 
Peaceful Transformation" with a score of 3.8. 
 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
Our Vision is Bolivia's Vision 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 
3.  (SBU)  In separate write-up with the participants, it 
become clear that figures from the MAS are confident that 
their vision is shared by the majority of Bolivians and that 
only a handful of radical and reactionary fringe elements 
stand in their way.  As a result, the government's vision 
will ultimately prevail and, because of its inevitability, 
opposition forces are likely to relent without any serious 
violence.  For example, the Minister of Government Alfredo 
Rada argued that ultimately those who support "national 
unity, the deepening of democracy, the culmination of the 
constitutional and (regional) autonomy process" will prevail. 
 While there is turmoil in the county currently, it comes 
only from "radical civic leaders and opposition prefects 
(governors)" from marginal areas in the Chaco (south-east) 
and the jungle (north-east).  For Rada, the heart of the 
nation and largest economic and social centers are currently 
at peace, operating normally, and will ultimately prevail 
over the rough fringes of society. 
 
4.  (SBU)  The head of the MAS congressional delegation, 
Cesar Navarro mirrored Rada's thinking.  He said that the 
"liberal, republican, and neocolonial state has failed and 
has to be transformed" and asserted that Bolivia now has "a 
democratic leadership that has transcended continental 
boundaries and has an unassailable strength for the 
transformation and unity of the country."  For Navarro, it is 
a lie that the country is divided and on the border of a 
civil war; all will be resolved peacefully via democratic 
participation. 
 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
My Vision Ain't Your Vision 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 
5.  (SBU)  Figures from the opposition were not so sanguine 
about a united Bolivia, nor about a peaceful resolution to 
the conflict.  Reflecting two years of failed attempts to 
dialogue with the Morales administration, the two prefects 
interviewed for the article both expressed hope for dialogue, 
but a firm belief that current push to approve the MAS 
 
LA PAZ 00001931  002 OF 002 
 
 
constitution needed to be stopped.  Leopoldo Fernandez, the 
Prefect of Pando said that "the government doesn't want to 
admit that the root of the current problems is in the process 
of constitutional reform" and currently, the proposed 
constitution "does not reflect a true social pact for 
Bolivians."  As a result, both he and also Tarija's 
opposition Prefect, Mario Cossio see violence as a 
probability to force the government to admit to the divisions 
in the country and take seriously any dialog. 
 
6.  (SBU)  Most pessimistic among the interviewees was the 
Podemos Senator from Beni, Walter Guitera.  For him, civil 
war is now inevitable as Bolivians from the east ask "why are 
we going to belong to this country?"  In the front of their 
minds are the arguments that "we are not at all like the west 
(of Bolivia), not in topography, not racially, not in our 
manner of thinking, and not in our culture."  The divisions 
between east and west have always been present, but for many 
the current state of affairs has brought the differences into 
sharp contrast. 
GOLDBERG